LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

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megagnarley
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Re: LSAC Data: Fall 2013 Applications

Postby megagnarley » Fri Mar 01, 2013 9:02 pm

This whole applicant drop effect theorizing seems to be all hat and no cattle.

People seem to be performing right at the watermark for their numbers.

Whatever.

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Aawaldrop
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Re: LSAC Data: Fall 2013 Applications

Postby Aawaldrop » Fri Mar 01, 2013 9:09 pm

megagnarley wrote:This whole applicant drop effect theorizing seems to be all hat and no cattle.

People seem to be performing right at the watermark for their numbers.

Whatever.


Pretty much, from what I've seen, everyone is doing slightly better.

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: LSAC Data: Fall 2013 Applications

Postby Tiago Splitter » Fri Mar 01, 2013 9:40 pm

megagnarley wrote:This whole applicant drop effect theorizing seems to be all hat and no cattle.

People seem to be performing right at the watermark for their numbers.

Whatever.

Same thing seemed to be happening last cycle. Most people got in about where they expected. But when the dust cleared the data showed things in the aggregate were a little easier. This year should be a slight improvement on the last. And remember that part of the reason things aren't markedly easier is that schools are cutting class sizes, which is great for current students.

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megagnarley
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Re: LSAC Data: Fall 2013 Applications

Postby megagnarley » Fri Mar 01, 2013 9:59 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:
megagnarley wrote:This whole applicant drop effect theorizing seems to be all hat and no cattle.

People seem to be performing right at the watermark for their numbers.

Whatever.

Same thing seemed to be happening last cycle. Most people got in about where they expected. But when the dust cleared the data showed things in the aggregate were a little easier. This year should be a slight improvement on the last. And remember that part of the reason things aren't markedly easier is that schools are cutting class sizes, which is great for current students.


Class cuts is a valid point and the only one that helps me rationalize this cycle.

Regarding said cuts, any published data as to which schools are actually trimming or is that to be determined post mortem?

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megagnarley
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Re: LSAC Data: Fall 2013 Applications

Postby megagnarley » Mon Mar 04, 2013 12:48 pm

megagnarley wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:
megagnarley wrote:This whole applicant drop effect theorizing seems to be all hat and no cattle.

People seem to be performing right at the watermark for their numbers.

Whatever.

Same thing seemed to be happening last cycle. Most people got in about where they expected. But when the dust cleared the data showed things in the aggregate were a little easier. This year should be a slight improvement on the last. And remember that part of the reason things aren't markedly easier is that schools are cutting class sizes, which is great for current students.


Class cuts is a valid point and the only one that helps me rationalize this cycle.

Regarding said cuts, any published data as to which schools are actually trimming or is that to be determined post mortem?


Validating these ideas, I spoke with the dean of admissions for a top 20 law school over the weekend and what he said runs counter to a lot of TLS mind on the matter.

Rather than the applicant drop having a positive effect on applicants, it is actually causing things to tighten up as those higher scores have become even more valuable. He said that schools are really trying to keep their medians, and even alluded to the fact that cutting classes would be favorable to slipping.

Essentially, adcoms have lost the luxury of admitting someone who they really like knowing that there are plenty of other above median applicants out there as there have been in the past.

Food for thought.

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Robespierre
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Re: LSAC Data: Fall 2013 Applications

Postby Robespierre » Mon Mar 04, 2013 2:15 pm

^ There are several ways to deal with the decline in applicants.

1. Let the school's standards drop.

2. Decrease class size.

3. Poach qualified students from other schools by spreading around lots of scholarship money.

4. Admit fewer students who will hurt your medians: URMs with lower numbers, in-staters with lower numbers (state schools only, obviously) and people with low numbers but outstanding soft factors.

5. Accept people with low numbers who don't need to be reflected in reports to the ABA and USNews, such as transfers.

6. Sell yourself harder to accepted students with good numbers, in order to increase yield (another form of poaching from other schools).

This cycle, pretty much every school, except maybe HYS, will have to use at least one of these tactics.

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longlivetheking
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Re: LSAC Data: Fall 2013 Applications

Postby longlivetheking » Mon Mar 04, 2013 2:18 pm

megagnarley wrote:
megagnarley wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:
megagnarley wrote:This whole applicant drop effect theorizing seems to be all hat and no cattle.

People seem to be performing right at the watermark for their numbers.

Whatever.

Same thing seemed to be happening last cycle. Most people got in about where they expected. But when the dust cleared the data showed things in the aggregate were a little easier. This year should be a slight improvement on the last. And remember that part of the reason things aren't markedly easier is that schools are cutting class sizes, which is great for current students.


Class cuts is a valid point and the only one that helps me rationalize this cycle.

Regarding said cuts, any published data as to which schools are actually trimming or is that to be determined post mortem?


Validating these ideas, I spoke with the dean of admissions for a top 20 law school over the weekend and what he said runs counter to a lot of TLS mind on the matter.

Rather than the applicant drop having a positive effect on applicants, it is actually causing things to tighten up as those higher scores have become even more valuable. He said that schools are really trying to keep their medians, and even alluded to the fact that cutting classes would be favorable to slipping.

Essentially, adcoms have lost the luxury of admitting someone who they really like knowing that there are plenty of other above median applicants out there as there have been in the past.

Food for thought.



I think alot of people have unrealistic expectations of what an 'epic' cycle constitutes. lets not kid ourselves, if you're below both medians, even in the most epic of all cycles you're unlikely to get in. period.

what an 'epic' cycle should mean is that medians are going to drop. so for example nyu's lsat median drops from 172 to 171. and if you have a 171 score now you're in a great spot to get in while before the drop you would need an above median gpa.

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Re: LSAC Data: Fall 2013 Applications

Postby Big Dog » Mon Mar 04, 2013 2:21 pm

Validating these ideas, I spoke with the dean of admissions for a top 20 law school over the weekend and what he said runs counter to a lot of TLS mind on the matter.

Rather than the applicant drop having a positive effect on applicants, it is actually causing things to tighten up as those higher scores have become even more valuable. He said that schools are really trying to keep their medians, and even alluded to the fact that cutting classes would be favorable to slipping.


It's only "counter" IFF they reduce class sizes.

Essentially, adcoms have lost the luxury of admitting someone who they really like knowing that there are plenty of other above median applicants out there as there have been in the past.


Indeed, this supports "TLS wisdom" bcos that "someone...they really like" will have sub-par stats. Otherwise, they'd be auto-accept.
Last edited by Big Dog on Mon Mar 04, 2013 2:24 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: LSAC Data: Fall 2013 Applications

Postby Cobretti » Mon Mar 04, 2013 2:22 pm

longlivetheking wrote:
I think alot of people have unrealistic expectations of what an 'epic' cycle constitutes. lets not kid ourselves, if you're below both medians, even in the most epic of all cycles you're unlikely to get in. period.

what an 'epic' cycle should mean is that medians are going to drop. so for example nyu's lsat median drops from 172 to 171. and if you have a 171 score now you're in a great spot to get in while before the drop you would need an above median gpa.

Splitters probably have our hopes up more than anyone. So far my cycle has gone exactly how one would expect, but the jury is still out for all the questionable schools that would make this an 'epic' cycle for me.

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longlivetheking
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Re: LSAC Data: Fall 2013 Applications

Postby longlivetheking » Mon Mar 04, 2013 2:25 pm

mrizza wrote:
longlivetheking wrote:
I think alot of people have unrealistic expectations of what an 'epic' cycle constitutes. lets not kid ourselves, if you're below both medians, even in the most epic of all cycles you're unlikely to get in. period.

what an 'epic' cycle should mean is that medians are going to drop. so for example nyu's lsat median drops from 172 to 171. and if you have a 171 score now you're in a great spot to get in while before the drop you would need an above median gpa.

Splitters probably have our hopes up more than anyone. So far my cycle has gone exactly how one would expect, but the jury is still out for all the questionable schools that would make this an 'epic' cycle for me.


if after waitlist season its still disappointing then we can reconvene this thread and cry out to the Lord

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longlivetheking
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Re: LSAC Data: Fall 2013 Applications

Postby longlivetheking » Mon Mar 04, 2013 2:30 pm

mrizza wrote:
longlivetheking wrote:
I think alot of people have unrealistic expectations of what an 'epic' cycle constitutes. lets not kid ourselves, if you're below both medians, even in the most epic of all cycles you're unlikely to get in. period.

what an 'epic' cycle should mean is that medians are going to drop. so for example nyu's lsat median drops from 172 to 171. and if you have a 171 score now you're in a great spot to get in while before the drop you would need an above median gpa.

Splitters probably have our hopes up more than anyone. So far my cycle has gone exactly how one would expect, but the jury is still out for all the questionable schools that would make this an 'epic' cycle for me.


mrizza, i think a 3.0 gpa for any 'epic' schools is gonna be a stretch. but yes, waitlist movements would be the bulk of the epicness

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Cobretti
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Re: LSAC Data: Fall 2013 Applications

Postby Cobretti » Mon Mar 04, 2013 2:34 pm

longlivetheking wrote:
mrizza wrote:
longlivetheking wrote:
I think alot of people have unrealistic expectations of what an 'epic' cycle constitutes. lets not kid ourselves, if you're below both medians, even in the most epic of all cycles you're unlikely to get in. period.

what an 'epic' cycle should mean is that medians are going to drop. so for example nyu's lsat median drops from 172 to 171. and if you have a 171 score now you're in a great spot to get in while before the drop you would need an above median gpa.

Splitters probably have our hopes up more than anyone. So far my cycle has gone exactly how one would expect, but the jury is still out for all the questionable schools that would make this an 'epic' cycle for me.


mrizza, i think a 3.0 gpa for any 'epic' schools is gonna be a stretch. but yes, waitlist movements would be the bulk of the epicness

I'd consider penn/mich/nyu acceptances epic, wasn't saying HYS. Only applied to S because I'm very qualified for ALEP.

but anyway, in at NU... DGAF

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RetakeFrenzy
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Re: LSAC Data: Fall 2013 Applications

Postby RetakeFrenzy » Wed Mar 06, 2013 12:09 pm

Update :!:
http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... volume.asp

As of 03/01/13, there are 310,113 Fall 2013 applications submitted by 44,630 applicants. Applicants are down 19.7% and applications are down 23.1% from 2012.


Last year at this time, we had 82% of the preliminary final applicant count.
--ImageRemoved--


Last year at this time, we had 86% of the preliminary final application count.
--ImageRemoved--

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lhanvt13
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Re: LSAC Data: Fall 2013 Applications

Postby lhanvt13 » Wed Mar 06, 2013 12:29 pm

RetakeFrenzy wrote:Update :!:
http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... volume.asp

As of 03/01/13, there are 310,113 Fall 2013 applications submitted by 44,630 applicants. Applicants are down 19.7% and applications are down 23.1% from 2012.


Last year at this time, we had 82% of the preliminary final applicant count.
--ImageRemoved--


Last year at this time, we had 86% of the preliminary final application count.
--ImageRemoved--

Woo! Keep em coming !

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99.9luft
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Re: LSAC Data: Fall 2013 Applications

Postby 99.9luft » Wed Mar 06, 2013 9:00 pm

OP updated.

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TatNurner
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Re: LSAC Data: Fall 2013 Applications

Postby TatNurner » Fri Mar 08, 2013 2:22 pm

megagnarley wrote:
Rather than the applicant drop having a positive effect on applicants, it is actually causing things to tighten up as those higher scores have become even more valuable. He said that schools are really trying to keep their medians, and even alluded to the fact that cutting classes would be favorable to slipping.

Essentially, adcoms have lost the luxury of admitting someone who they really like knowing that there are plenty of other above median applicants out there as there have been in the past.

Food for thought.


There will come a point where they can't cut any further. As the dean from Texas said in the other thread, each student cut represents three years of lost income. Sooner or later those cuts will come up against fixed costs, and as a result, standards will have to relax. Schools will be able to avoid this if things start turning around. I wouldn't put money on that though, given that the message about how law school sucks is still on the up.

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star fox
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Re: LSAC Data: Fall 2013 Applications

Postby star fox » Fri Mar 08, 2013 5:40 pm

megagnarley wrote:
megagnarley wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:
megagnarley wrote:This whole applicant drop effect theorizing seems to be all hat and no cattle.

People seem to be performing right at the watermark for their numbers.

Whatever.

Same thing seemed to be happening last cycle. Most people got in about where they expected. But when the dust cleared the data showed things in the aggregate were a little easier. This year should be a slight improvement on the last. And remember that part of the reason things aren't markedly easier is that schools are cutting class sizes, which is great for current students.


Class cuts is a valid point and the only one that helps me rationalize this cycle.

Regarding said cuts, any published data as to which schools are actually trimming or is that to be determined post mortem?


Validating these ideas, I spoke with the dean of admissions for a top 20 law school over the weekend and what he said runs counter to a lot of TLS mind on the matter.

Rather than the applicant drop having a positive effect on applicants, it is actually causing things to tighten up as those higher scores have become even more valuable. He said that schools are really trying to keep their medians, and even alluded to the fact that cutting classes would be favorable to slipping.

Essentially, adcoms have lost the luxury of admitting someone who they really like knowing that there are plenty of other above median applicants out there as there have been in the past.

Food for thought.


Good. If law is ever going to be the prestigious profession it once was (and is still glamorized in mostly fictional accounts), then class sizes need to drop and standards need to be increased overall. Law school should become like medical school, only the best and brightest students should attend. The problem is, people that are "average" students in UG who to go to "average" Law Schools and get "average" grades never actually become lawyers. It's time to end this over-saturation, and it's better to crush someone's dreams when they are an applicant and not after they have incurred over $200 grand in student loans.

Big Dog
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Re: LSAC Data: Fall 2013 Applications

Postby Big Dog » Fri Mar 08, 2013 6:17 pm

As the dean from Texas said in the other thread, each student cut represents three years of lost income.



And you believed him/her? (All they have to do is to expand the transfers in to recapture 2/3rds of the money in the short-term....)

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Re: LSAC Data: Fall 2013 Applications

Postby shntn » Sat Mar 09, 2013 10:31 am

JayJones78 wrote:
Thank you for this. Bad news for law schools, good news for this cycle's applicants.

We keep saying that, but for so many that theory just doesn't seem to hold water.

I guess it can only be a good thing in the aggregate. I'm just frustrated.

toothbrush
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Re: LSAC Data: Fall 2013 Applications

Postby toothbrush » Sat Mar 09, 2013 10:38 am

shntn wrote:
JayJones78 wrote:
Thank you for this. Bad news for law schools, good news for this cycle's applicants.

We keep saying that, but for so many that theory just doesn't seem to hold water.

I guess it can only be a good thing in the aggregate. I'm just frustrated.

I agree with this sentiment. I think in theory it's supposed to be good for our cycle, but so far it's panned out to be a load of shit. Schools are seemingly paranoid about # medians and money and class sizes and are just pumping out some strange decisions. Maybe in a few years when the dust settles and there is a new "norm" for applicants this decrease will be good for the buyer. For now, schools still seem to out on top. :(

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Re: LSAC Data: Fall 2013 Applications

Postby LRGhost » Sat Mar 09, 2013 11:49 am

mrizza wrote:I'd consider penn/mich/nyu acceptances epic, wasn't saying HYS. Only applied to S because I'm very qualified for ALEP.

but anyway, in at NU... DGAF


Same w/r/t to NYU and Penn tho Mich is out of it for me. Getting V would be pretty big also considering how they usually lock up most people with my stats through ED.

toothbrush
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Re: LSAC Data: Fall 2013 Applications

Postby toothbrush » Sat Mar 09, 2013 11:53 am

LRGhost wrote:
mrizza wrote:I'd consider penn/mich/nyu acceptances epic, wasn't saying HYS. Only applied to S because I'm very qualified for ALEP.

but anyway, in at NU... DGAF


Same w/r/t to NYU and Penn tho Mich is out of it for me. Getting V would be pretty big also considering how they usually lock up most people with my stats through ED.

that M reject is random are ridic

LRGhost
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Re: LSAC Data: Fall 2013 Applications

Postby LRGhost » Sat Mar 09, 2013 11:57 am

Eh maybe not idk we'll see

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longlivetheking
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Re: LSAC Data: Fall 2013 Applications

Postby longlivetheking » Sat Mar 09, 2013 1:25 pm

look at LSN for NYU. its obvious that 170/3.6 or 171/3.5 2 years ago would not be fucking getting in. but now there's a nice row of green. THIS, is proof of cycles getting easier.

i think some of us splitters are just having wilder dreams that they would dip down to gpa's below 3.3 and start grabbing them. i'm not saying they wouldn't, but lets not get carried away.

shntn
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Re: LSAC Data: Fall 2013 Applications

Postby shntn » Sat Mar 09, 2013 1:27 pm

longlivetheking wrote:look at LSN for NYU. its obvious that 170/3.6 or 171/3.5 2 years ago would not be fucking getting in. but now there's a nice row of green. THIS, is proof of cycles getting easier.

i think some of us splitters are just having wilder dreams that they would dip down to gpa's below 3.3 and start grabbing them. i'm not saying they wouldn't, but lets not get carried away.

My frustration isn't on my own behalf. My cycle has been very fruitful (and, per LSN, wouldn't have been nearly so just a couple of years ago.)




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