LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

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RetakeFrenzy
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby RetakeFrenzy » Thu May 23, 2013 7:53 am

Wow.. just updating with new stats created so much needed levity in this thread :mrgreen:

LRGhost
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby LRGhost » Thu May 23, 2013 11:19 am

NYstate wrote:Final question: are there schools like Cooley, NYLS and all the others churning out PhD grads? Doesn't a PhD program have to be attached to a university?


Most schools have master's programs. Most people go into it thinking they'll get a good job or become professors. Most don't have any more knowledge than that and for most, this is what they've been told. Sound familiar?

The numbers will go up. Maybe it's flat next year, but it will go up. Again, I'll bet any amount of money that I have that it'll go up within five years. Kids still think a JD is worth it even with all the doom and gloom. Presumably smart kids still think BigLaw is worth it even with all the doom and gloom. It's this perfect storm of being reasonably intelligent to get into a decent school but not being shrewd enough to recognize that you aren't special or necessarily exempt from the average outcome of people like you.

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Yukos
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby Yukos » Thu May 23, 2013 12:22 pm

PhD programs are a whole different animal because they're almost always funded and PhD applications require working closely with a professor who would, hopefully, dissuade you from getting an unfunded PhD at Big State U. Last I read, about 25% of humanities PhD grads get tenure-track positions, which is pretty awful in one sense but not that bad if the whole adventure is free anyway and you basically get to study what you love for four to seven years.

I agree that master's programs are probably an even worse scam than JDs though. An MPP can come with $50,000 tuition, no direct job pipeline like OCI and no LRAP (which is a big deal considering many MPP people want to go into gov't).

Last point: I think it's pretty clear that "don't go to law school" is getting through to the general populace -- just look at the drop in applications. Of course there's still people, even on TLS, excited to choose between TJSoL and John Marshall Chicago, but that's becoming more and more rare.

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TatNurner
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby TatNurner » Fri May 24, 2013 7:26 pm

One reason that hasn't been put forward about why apps might go down next year is that all the TTTs that are letting people apply with June LSATs are poaching from next year's pool.

Anyways, generally speaking, I'd tend to agree that we haven't seen bottom yet. It takes a long time for news to filter out. Law school negativity is still on the up.

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JXander
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby JXander » Mon Jun 03, 2013 9:23 am


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RetakeFrenzy
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby RetakeFrenzy » Mon Jun 03, 2013 9:47 am

JXander wrote:http://www.abajournal.com/news/article/law-school_applicants_drop_for_third_year_in_a_row/


Thanks, JXander!

The Post spoke with Andrew Cornblatt, dean of admissions at Georgetown University Law Center, where applications dropped 6 percent this year. The school plans to keep its entering class the same size this fall, but Cornblatt wouldn’t be surprised if the school enrolls fewer people next year.


Good to know :)

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MikeSpivey
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby MikeSpivey » Mon Jun 03, 2013 10:15 am

Application decreases (there are no increases) by LSAT:

http://spiveyconsulting.com/blog/lsat-t ... -v-201112/

Article on applications being down but "up" as the year dragged on...

http://m.americanlawyer.com/module/alm/ ... /988808086

Also, currently there is one school with an application increase > 40% and 45 schools with an decrease of > or = 30%

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jbagelboy
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby jbagelboy » Mon Jun 03, 2013 6:18 pm

A few phenomena that could twist the decline in law applications relative to attendance:

1) Theoretically, the ratio of (# attend)/(# apply) could decrease in lieu of (# apply) decreasing. applications can level out or even increase, but debt aversion would steer people who fail to gain admission to certain schools away from attending at all -- moreover, they might reapply more often, increasing (# apply).

2) "inferior good" v. "normal good": law schools with shitty numbers may see a decline in applications due to LST, plethora of articles on not attending LS, the shift in public awareness, ect., but law schools with strong numbers (i.e., T14) may see an increase or at least not a decrease as they become the only schools worth attending for legal employment.

3) As a corollary to 2), and supported in part by the recent data point to this "upwards" swing in declining applications, individual applicants (such as myself and several friends) may be catching on that a general decline in applications means better chances short-term for them -- then they apply, offsetting a portion of the net decline in apps, which explains why applications increased in the fall beyond projected levels.

Each of these would tamper with our interpretation of "decline in applications". So long as a set of schools have 50%+ lucrative legal outcomes, people will apply.

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Yukos
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby Yukos » Mon Jun 03, 2013 6:23 pm

Just to play devil's advocate, it's possible that the lowest ranked law schools will actually hold among the best as far as applicants. It wouldn't be surprising if those applicants with the worst numbers are also the least informed and thus the least likely to know about LST, the NYT articles, etc.

This would also explain the uptick at the end of the cycle, when only TTTs are accepting apps and people are more likely to be making rushed, uninformed decisions.

(Edited for clarity)
Last edited by Yukos on Mon Jun 03, 2013 6:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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NoodleyOne
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby NoodleyOne » Mon Jun 03, 2013 6:25 pm

Yukos wrote:Just to play devil's advocate, it's possible that the lowest ranked law schools will actually hold among the best as far as applicants. It wouldn't be surprised if those with the worst numbers are also the least informed and thus the least likely to know about LST, the NYT articles, etc.

This would also explain the uptick at the end of the cycle, when only TTTs are accepting apps and people are more likely to be making rushed, uninformed decisions.

Pretty sure this makes sense, especially since a large portion of "good" schools have deadline dates in February and March, while the significant uptick was later. This makes sense for a number of reasons, 1 being applicants at lower ranked schools (TTTs and the like) probably don't know enough or care enough about how admissions work to get shit in early, and TTTs were sending out ads to everyone registered with CAS throughout march, april, and may trying to get more applicants in.

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jbagelboy
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby jbagelboy » Mon Jun 03, 2013 6:28 pm

NoodleyOne wrote:
Yukos wrote:Just to play devil's advocate, it's possible that the lowest ranked law schools will actually hold among the best as far as applicants. It wouldn't be surprised if those with the worst numbers are also the least informed and thus the least likely to know about LST, the NYT articles, etc.

This would also explain the uptick at the end of the cycle, when only TTTs are accepting apps and people are more likely to be making rushed, uninformed decisions.

Pretty sure this makes sense, especially since a large portion of "good" schools have deadline dates in February and March, while the significant uptick was later. This makes sense for a number of reasons, 1 being applicants at lower ranked schools (TTTs and the like) probably don't know enough or care enough about how admissions work to get shit in early, and TTTs were sending out ads to everyone registered with CAS throughout march, april, and may trying to get more applicants in.


This is totally possible. I suppose we dont know exactly which is in play, but the fee waivers and mass mailing definitely could have played a role. I wasnt trying to state anything definitively, just opening the topic

bcandybc
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby bcandybc » Wed Jun 05, 2013 1:53 pm

STats updated:

As of 05/31/13, there are 376,380 Fall 2013 applications submitted by 56,424 applicants. Applicants are down 13.2% and applications are down 18.6% from 2012.
Last year at this time, we had 96% of the preliminary final applicant count.

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MikeSpivey
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby MikeSpivey » Wed Jun 12, 2013 10:59 pm

This would invariably hurt the legal job market and would therefore likely keep applications down or even drop them further.

http://money.cnn.com/2013/06/12/news/ec ... index.html

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justonemoregame
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby justonemoregame » Wed Jun 12, 2013 11:10 pm

I just hope there were less June takers than last round, that negative publicity keeps spreading, and that future applicants become ever more demanding w/r/t financial aid.

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby Tiago Splitter » Thu Jun 13, 2013 7:57 am

MikeSpivey wrote:This would invariably hurt the legal job market and would therefore likely keep applications down or even drop them further.

http://money.cnn.com/2013/06/12/news/ec ... index.html

People have historically run towards graduate school, not away from it, during down economic times. Maybe this next one will be different, but I wouldn't count on it.

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MikeSpivey
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby MikeSpivey » Thu Jun 13, 2013 8:48 am

Tiago Splitter wrote:
MikeSpivey wrote:This would invariably hurt the legal job market and would therefore likely keep applications down or even drop them further.

http://money.cnn.com/2013/06/12/news/ec ... index.html

People have historically run towards graduate school, not away from it, during down economic times. Maybe this next one will be different, but I wouldn't count on it.


Tiago =--that has been the historic model for certain. Also movie theatres sales and liquor stales, strange bedfellows for grad school. But during the previous recession it changed and I think if we have another one right on its heels law applications will go down further.

re: the global recession prediction, while I don't think it's a very bold prediction (60%?..they are pretty much right either way), I largely agree (or at least can say I'm very concerned about this) the key line is "monetary fixes rather than structural ones" ...that's the alarming problem. Central banks are rewarding debtors and punishing savers/investors - very bad policy for long-term growth

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Yukos
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby Yukos » Thu Jun 13, 2013 2:49 pm

MikeSpivey wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:
MikeSpivey wrote:This would invariably hurt the legal job market and would therefore likely keep applications down or even drop them further.

http://money.cnn.com/2013/06/12/news/ec ... index.html

People have historically run towards graduate school, not away from it, during down economic times. Maybe this next one will be different, but I wouldn't count on it.


Tiago =--that has been the historic model for certain. Also movie theatres sales and liquor stales, strange bedfellows for grad school. But during the previous recession it changed and I think if we have another one right on its heels law applications will go down further.


The peak in law school applications coincided with the recession and it was only years into the recovery -- and with an extreme amount of outside information telling people how bad an idea law school is -- that the trend reversed. I don't see how the last recession serves as evidence that people no longer run to grad school during downturns.

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MikeSpivey
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby MikeSpivey » Thu Jun 13, 2013 3:41 pm

Yukos wrote:
MikeSpivey wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:
MikeSpivey wrote:This would invariably hurt the legal job market and would therefore likely keep applications down or even drop them further.

http://money.cnn.com/2013/06/12/news/ec ... index.html

People have historically run towards graduate school, not away from it, during down economic times. Maybe this next one will be different, but I wouldn't count on it.


Tiago =--that has been the historic model for certain. Also movie theatres sales and liquor stales, strange bedfellows for grad school. But during the previous recession it changed and I think if we have another one right on its heels law applications will go down further.


The peak in law school applications coincided with the recession and it was only years into the recovery -- and with an extreme amount of outside information telling people how bad an idea law school is -- that the trend reversed. I don't see how the last recession serves as evidence that people no longer run to grad school during downturns.


The "Great Recession" entirely changed the legal hiring model which has far ad away had the most profound effect on law school application. They were not correlated linearly on a calendar but are both correlated and casually related altogether. Or at least, that is my conjecture.

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Yukos
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby Yukos » Thu Jun 13, 2013 5:16 pm

MikeSpivey wrote:
Yukos wrote:
MikeSpivey wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:People have historically run towards graduate school, not away from it, during down economic times. Maybe this next one will be different, but I wouldn't count on it.


Tiago =--that has been the historic model for certain. Also movie theatres sales and liquor stales, strange bedfellows for grad school. But during the previous recession it changed and I think if we have another one right on its heels law applications will go down further.


The peak in law school applications coincided with the recession and it was only years into the recovery -- and with an extreme amount of outside information telling people how bad an idea law school is -- that the trend reversed. I don't see how the last recession serves as evidence that people no longer run to grad school during downturns.


The "Great Recession" entirely changed the legal hiring model which has far ad away had the most profound effect on law school application. They were not correlated linearly on a calendar but are both correlated and casually related altogether. Or at least, that is my conjecture.


Obviously you know the motivations of current applicants much better than I do but I think you're engaging in a little post hoc ergo proctor hoc here. Applications went UP 2008-2010, i.e. in the immediate aftermath of the collapse in legal hiring, and it was only when the NY Times, LST, etc. got the word out that we had the current drop. It's quite possible that now that the word is out people won't be rushing into law school in the next recession, but I don't think there's any evidence that the LAST recession bucked the historical trend.

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MikeSpivey
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby MikeSpivey » Thu Jun 13, 2013 5:55 pm

Obviously you know the motivations of current applicants much better than I do but I think you're engaging in a little post hoc ergo proctor hoc here. Applications went UP 2008-2010, i.e. in the immediate aftermath of the collapse in legal hiring, and it was only when the NY Times, LST, etc. got the word out that we had the current drop. It's quite possible that now that the word is out people won't be rushing into law school in the next recession, but I don't think there's any evidence that the LAST recession bucked the historical trend.[/quote]

Who knows, I don't even know what post hoc ergo protector hoc means (I think I can figure it out without googling but I may be way off). I think my point which I have articulated poorly is that the market needed some correction, and part of that correction had a bit of a lag in respect to getting the word out to prospective students. Due to a variety of reasons (proximity of recent recession, social media, scrutiny of media, etc) I think if there is a global recession which hits legal employment or keeps legal employment from rebounding at all, that news (for lack of a better word) will hit prospective students almost immediately.

Now to go address the 6,000 questions I have been getting re: Wash U scholarships, which is to say try to answer another question I don't have an answer to.

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Nulli Secundus
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby Nulli Secundus » Thu Jun 13, 2013 6:12 pm

Wonder if I should reapply for the lulz. (If only to decline myself, wasting a 176 is something that keeps bugging me, when I remember it is being wasted :P)

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Yukos
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby Yukos » Thu Jun 13, 2013 7:35 pm

MikeSpivey"[quote="Yukos wrote:Obviously you know the motivations of current applicants much better than I do but I think you're engaging in a little post hoc ergo proctor hoc here. Applications went UP 2008-2010, i.e. in the immediate aftermath of the collapse in legal hiring, and it was only when the NY Times, LST, etc. got the word out that we had the current drop. It's quite possible that now that the word is out people won't be rushing into law school in the next recession, but I don't think there's any evidence that the LAST recession bucked the historical trend.


Who knows, I don't even know what post hoc ergo protector hoc means (I think I can figure it out without googling but I may be way off).[/quote]

You're in good company: neither does CJ or Josh.

(Also I butchered the spelling. I should stay away from Latin...)

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MikeSpivey
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby MikeSpivey » Sat Jun 15, 2013 10:21 am

Yukos wrote:
MikeSpivey"[quote="Yukos wrote:Obviously you know the motivations of current applicants much better than I do but I think you're engaging in a little post hoc ergo proctor hoc here. Applications went UP 2008-2010, i.e. in the immediate aftermath of the collapse in legal hiring, and it was only when the NY Times, LST, etc. got the word out that we had the current drop. It's quite possible that now that the word is out people won't be rushing into law school in the next recession, but I don't think there's any evidence that the LAST recession bucked the historical trend.


Who knows, I don't even know what post hoc ergo protector hoc means (I think I can figure it out without googling but I may be way off).


You're in good company: neither does CJ or Josh.

(Also I butchered the spelling. I should stay away from Latin...)[/quote]

Yukos, I've used this like 15 times in the past two days. I'm kind of like Sean Hannity when he learns a new word...

bcandybc
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby bcandybc » Thu Jun 20, 2013 5:05 pm

LSAC just updated the Fall of 2012 statistics:

http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... ummary.asp

Acceptance offers are up to 75% of all who apply from 57% back in 2003. Laughable.

The volume of acceptances actually went down - most likely the top tier paring back classes while the TTT-TTTTs continue to gorge at the sake of medians. On average, each of the 200 ABA schools cut 26 from its 1L class.

If acceptance and matriculation rates stay consistent with 2012, we'll see 43k admits and 35k matriculants. That's a huge 3 year drop of actual enrollments from 50k in the fall of 2010, which was their banner year before it all started to fall apart.

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Presidentjlh
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby Presidentjlh » Thu Jun 20, 2013 5:09 pm

bcandybc wrote:LSAC just updated the Fall of 2012 statistics:

http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... ummary.asp

Acceptance offers are up to 75% of all who apply from 57% back in 2003. Laughable.

The volume of acceptances actually went down - most likely the top tier paring back classes while the TTT-TTTTs continue to gorge at the sake of medians. On average, each of the 200 ABA schools cut 26 from its 1L class.

If acceptance and matriculation rates stay consistent with 2012, we'll see 43k admits and 35k matriculants. That's a huge 3 year drop of actual enrollments from 50k in the fall of 2010, which was their banner year before it all started to fall apart.


Unfortunately, that's still way too many matriculants, but it's better. Still needs to go down by another 10k before things finally start looking decent again.




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