NYstate wrote: LRGhost wrote:
NYstate wrote: I give 0Ls credit to understand reality
This is foolish. We have reached, or are very close, to the nadir as far as apps go. People are still applying and that in itself is a negative EV decision. I give 0Ls no credit.
No, I'm not foolish. I understand better than you the slow percolation of truth about legal employment into mainstream America. Even the T14 kids are slowly catching on to the sacrifices required to repay tremendous debt. So far the plan they have is biglaw ( which seems to depend on school and on what you think the hiring market will be in 2 or 3 years and a willingness to live very frugally for a few years), PSLF ( which an even smaller number will get) and IBR or PAYE. As more of them falter as biglaw hiring shrinks , or they realize they can't take 3-5 years of biglaw - not saying they all will, but some definitely wont make it- and government hiring remains a shambles, more of them will get that even the best schools are not good investments for everyone.
This is pretty new stuff to absorb. But the message of cost of education far surpassing employment will become common wisdom. Just look at how much TLS has changed in the past 3 years. Now people are worryingly about debt instead of talking up " models and bottles"; now people are advising people to not go to law school instead of claiming people trying to inform about employment were just trying to limit competition.
These changes are going to spread. Plus, I think biglaw is going to be reducing hiring bit by bit.
It will all just take time. It is easy to fogey that most people don't yet know what TLS takes as common knowledge
Frankly, I think you're being too optimistic. I mean, I want
what you're saying to be the case--i.e., that the message that law school is way overpriced and has negative EV will become common wisdom--but I just don't see the evidence for that actually
being the case. Most people generally aren't that rational, particularly w/r/t such a bias-ridden decision as post-college plans. Specifically, it seems that being on TLS may give a mistaken impression as to how the general public thinks about law school. After browsing this forum for months, I realized that I subconsciously expected my peers at a relatively decent school to at least consider the cons of law school; well, many didn't/don't. Even the news articles by mainstream outlets about law school are not as well-known as the TLS bubble (the bolded) can make them out to be.
Just look at the situation with PhDs in humanities. I'd argue that the employment prospects there are much worse, yet people still go for such degrees in droves, whether for prestige, status, "intellectual fulfillment," or just not knowing what else to do after college--these are precisely the same reasons many people have for getting a JD.