LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

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RetakeFrenzy
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby RetakeFrenzy » Thu Apr 25, 2013 1:14 pm

prāna wrote:
bcandybc wrote:no update on LSAC for 2 weeks. wonder how bad the april #s were.

http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... volume.asp


we're at 91%...don't think the new data will change the picture much. If not tomorrow, then they'll likely update it next friday.


Yes.. as things have slowed down considerably, I'm not expecting a significant shift

StarJammer
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby StarJammer » Thu May 09, 2013 12:51 pm

As of 05/03/13, there are 370,847 Fall 2013 applications submitted by 54,839 applicants. Applicants are down 14.0% and applications are down 19.1% from 2012.

Last year at this time, we had 94% of the preliminary final applicant count.

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longlivetheking
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby longlivetheking » Thu May 09, 2013 3:04 pm

StarJammer wrote:As of 05/03/13, there are 370,847 Fall 2013 applications submitted by 54,839 applicants. Applicants are down 14.0% and applications are down 19.1% from 2012.

Last year at this time, we had 94% of the preliminary final applicant count.


WHY THE FUCK IS THERE A HUGE INCREASE ON APPLICANTS?

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JXander
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby JXander » Thu May 09, 2013 3:20 pm

longlivetheking wrote:
StarJammer wrote:As of 05/03/13, there are 370,847 Fall 2013 applications submitted by 54,839 applicants. Applicants are down 14.0% and applications are down 19.1% from 2012.

Last year at this time, we had 94% of the preliminary final applicant count.


WHY THE FUCK IS THERE A HUGE INCREASE ON APPLICANTS?

Well, the lower-ranked schools have been sending out mass emails within the past few weeks informing applicants of their "extended" deadlines and that they take the June LSAT. My guess would be that some unsuspecting persons took advantage of those opporTTTTunities.

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Micdiddy
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby Micdiddy » Thu May 09, 2013 3:23 pm

longlivetheking wrote:
StarJammer wrote:As of 05/03/13, there are 370,847 Fall 2013 applications submitted by 54,839 applicants. Applicants are down 14.0% and applications are down 19.1% from 2012.

Last year at this time, we had 94% of the preliminary final applicant count.


WHY THE FUCK IS THERE A HUGE INCREASE ON APPLICANTS?


There's a lot people already accepted with $$ at t14's who didn't realize Barry was offering free iPads, so we're rushing apps to get into that sweet, sweet iPad giving school.

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longlivetheking
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby longlivetheking » Thu May 09, 2013 3:46 pm

Micdiddy wrote:
longlivetheking wrote:
StarJammer wrote:As of 05/03/13, there are 370,847 Fall 2013 applications submitted by 54,839 applicants. Applicants are down 14.0% and applications are down 19.1% from 2012.

Last year at this time, we had 94% of the preliminary final applicant count.


WHY THE FUCK IS THERE A HUGE INCREASE ON APPLICANTS?


There's a lot people already accepted with $$ at t14's who didn't realize Barry was offering free iPads, so we're rushing apps to get into that sweet, sweet iPad giving school.


best LOL'ed of the day.

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NoodleyOne
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby NoodleyOne » Thu May 09, 2013 8:21 pm

JXander wrote:
longlivetheking wrote:
StarJammer wrote:As of 05/03/13, there are 370,847 Fall 2013 applications submitted by 54,839 applicants. Applicants are down 14.0% and applications are down 19.1% from 2012.

Last year at this time, we had 94% of the preliminary final applicant count.


WHY THE FUCK IS THERE A HUGE INCREASE ON APPLICANTS?

Well, the lower-ranked schools have been sending out mass emails within the past few weeks informing applicants of their "extended" deadlines and that they take the June LSAT. My guess would be that some unsuspecting persons took advantage of those opporTTTTunities.

This. TTTs are trying to boost their class sizes.

Honestly, this shit is nearly criminal. You're going to have medians plummet at the bottom. The ABA needs to start closing these shit holes. It's gone on far too long.

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RetakeFrenzy
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby RetakeFrenzy » Thu May 09, 2013 8:35 pm

longlivetheking wrote:
Micdiddy wrote:
longlivetheking wrote:
StarJammer wrote:As of 05/03/13, there are 370,847 Fall 2013 applications submitted by 54,839 applicants. Applicants are down 14.0% and applications are down 19.1% from 2012.

Last year at this time, we had 94% of the preliminary final applicant count.


WHY THE FUCK IS THERE A HUGE INCREASE ON APPLICANTS?


There's a lot people already accepted with $$ at t14's who didn't realize Barry was offering free iPads, so we're rushing apps to get into that sweet, sweet iPad giving school.


best LOL'ed of the day.


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

drive4showLSAT4dough
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby drive4showLSAT4dough » Thu May 09, 2013 8:52 pm

WTF nobody told me Barry was giving out iPads...

bcandybc
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby bcandybc » Fri May 10, 2013 3:43 pm

what's everyone's best guess on # of admits and matriculants? how far will the TTTTs go in lowering their GPA/LSAT #s to accept everyone they can and discounting tuition to get everyone to matriculate?

based on 2011 rates (2012 still not updated) and an assumption of 58k applicants this year, there would be 41K admits and 33K enrollments. That's a bloodbath. The admission rate might be closer to 85% this year compared to 72% in 2011.

source: http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... ummary.asp

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RetakeFrenzy
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby RetakeFrenzy » Wed May 22, 2013 1:23 pm

Another huge increase on applicants...

As of 05/17/13, there are 374,002 Fall 2013 applications submitted by 55,764 applicants. Applicants are down 13.4% and applications are down 18.8% from 2012.


Last year at this time, we had 95% of the preliminary final applicant count.


--ImageRemoved--

Last year at this time, we had 98% of the preliminary final application count.


--ImageRemoved--

Mavraides87
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby Mavraides87 » Wed May 22, 2013 1:36 pm

Do people think applications will increase this fall?

jcg
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Re: LSAC Data: Fall 2013 Applications

Postby jcg » Wed May 22, 2013 2:16 pm

"The problem is, people that are "average" students in UG who to go to "average" Law Schools and get "average" grades never actually become lawyers. It's time to end this over-saturation, and it's better to crush someone's dreams when they are an applicant and not after they have incurred over $200 grand in student loans."

That might be an oversaturation of applicants but not of lawyers. If they never practice, then it's not an oversaturation of lawyers.

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sublime
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby sublime » Wed May 22, 2013 2:31 pm

..

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longlivetheking
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby longlivetheking » Wed May 22, 2013 3:04 pm

sublime wrote:
Mavraides87 wrote:Do people think applications will increase this fall?



I am also interested if anyone has any thoughts about the next cycle.


quite possible imo. its been well publicized that apps have been down like crazy. i think the most telling stat will be how many people are taking the lsat, and how much of a decrease/increase are people in the 170-180 range.

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MikeSpivey
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby MikeSpivey » Wed May 22, 2013 3:42 pm

longlivetheking wrote:
sublime wrote:
Mavraides87 wrote:Do people think applications will increase this fall?



I am also interested if anyone has any thoughts about the next cycle.


quite possible imo. its been well publicized that apps have been down like crazy. i think the most telling stat will be how many people are taking the lsat, and how much of a decrease/increase are people in the 170-180 range.


I was just discussing this over email with someone. Here is my 2 cents, coped from my email, which might not even be worth that:

I think the applicant pool should at least stabilize next year. I base this much more on gut feeling than hard data and we will know a great deal more after the summer LSAT. That said, applications are down roughly 50% over three years and at some point there is a floor, which my instincts tell me we have likely hit this year.

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longlivetheking
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby longlivetheking » Wed May 22, 2013 3:53 pm

MikeSpivey wrote:
longlivetheking wrote:
sublime wrote:
Mavraides87 wrote:Do people think applications will increase this fall?



I am also interested if anyone has any thoughts about the next cycle.


quite possible imo. its been well publicized that apps have been down like crazy. i think the most telling stat will be how many people are taking the lsat, and how much of a decrease/increase are people in the 170-180 range.


I was just discussing this over email with someone. Here is my 2 cents, coped from my email, which might not even be worth that:

I think the applicant pool should at least stabilize next year. I base this much more on gut feeling than hard data and we will know a great deal more after the summer LSAT. That said, applications are down roughly 50% over three years and at some point there is a floor, which my instincts tell me we have likely hit this year.


mike thanks for dropping in. i think we are most concerned whether the 'top' applicants with the highest lsat will continue dropping. its obvious TTT mass mailings/stalking is working on some degree, but the legal market is still shit in the eyes of the media, not to mention investmentbanking hiring is back up. further, i think people are WAY more conscious about paying sticker/going into huge debt this cycle.

also, shouldn't the floor be the supply of legal jobs which we are still very very very very far from reaching?

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MikeSpivey
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby MikeSpivey » Wed May 22, 2013 5:15 pm

As far as an inflection point where supply equals demand, I would not hold my breath because it won't happen. Perception trumps reality here + a decent number of people go to law school without ever having the intention of practicing law. The WSJ ran a story on just that a few days ago.

In respect to "top" applicants, I can't even venture a guess. But I do know the decline there has been more precipitous than the overall decline, which might lead me to believe that this too will stabilize in the near future. There seems to be more scholarship money out there for applicants with strong scores than ever before, and the market is also aware of this.

Bottom line: who knows...but my blind guess is at least stabilization.

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John_rizzy_rawls
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby John_rizzy_rawls » Wed May 22, 2013 5:17 pm

Hey Mike,

So then was this year a total aberration or can we use this year's admission numbers to project our chances for next cycle?

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby Tiago Splitter » Wed May 22, 2013 7:58 pm

Applicants definitely aren't going up. The number of people taking the LSAT continues to decline rapidly.

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MikeSpivey
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby MikeSpivey » Wed May 22, 2013 8:03 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:Applicants definitely aren't going up. The number of people taking the LSAT continues to decline rapidly.


So do you think they will decline indefinitely to zero? A 50% reduction over three years is historic and it can't continue forever. At some point they are going to go up, the question is when?

I agree that if this were a real market correction applications would continue to go down and that would last until supply = demand and we lost a number of law schools. But there is nothing real about the law school applicant market -- it is much more based on perception than reality.

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby Tiago Splitter » Wed May 22, 2013 8:06 pm

MikeSpivey wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:Applicants definitely aren't going up. The number of people taking the LSAT continues to decline rapidly.


So do you think they will decline indefinitely to zero?

Yes. That is clearly what I think.

MikeSpivey wrote:A 50% reduction over three years is historic and it can't continue forever. At some point they are going to go up, the question is when?

How about when the number of people taking the Law School Admissions Test stops declining? That'd be my guess.

As I said in my post, they aren't going up next year. Doesn't mean they're going to continue to go down.
Last edited by Tiago Splitter on Wed May 22, 2013 8:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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loomstate
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby loomstate » Wed May 22, 2013 8:07 pm

MikeSpivey wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:Applicants definitely aren't going up. The number of people taking the LSAT continues to decline rapidly.


So do you think they will decline indefinitely to zero? A 50% reduction over three years is historic and it can't continue forever. At some point they are going to go up, the question is when?

I agree that if this were a real market correction applications would continue to go down and that would last until supply = demand and we lost a number of law schools. But there is nothing real about the law school applicant market -- it is much more based on perception than reality.


Ok so 50% is historic. So was 40 percent. I think a substantial number of applicants know now (or are beginning to learn) that law school is more reality than perception. The number of applicants was nowhere near sustainable.

TCR is probably that it wont change much next year, no matter if it increases or decreases.

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longlivetheking
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby longlivetheking » Wed May 22, 2013 8:16 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:
MikeSpivey wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:Applicants definitely aren't going up. The number of people taking the LSAT continues to decline rapidly.


So do you think they will decline indefinitely to zero?

Yes. That is clearly what I think.

MikeSpivey wrote:A 50% reduction over three years is historic and it can't continue forever. At some point they are going to go up, the question is when?

How about when the number of people taking the Law School Admissions Test stops declining? That'd be my guess.

As I said in my post, they aren't going up next year. Doesn't mean they're going to continue to go down.


this is some fucking gold right here. thank you tiago splitter.

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longlivetheking
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby longlivetheking » Wed May 22, 2013 8:20 pm

MikeSpivey wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:Applicants definitely aren't going up. The number of people taking the LSAT continues to decline rapidly.


So do you think they will decline indefinitely to zero? A 50% reduction over three years is historic and it can't continue forever. At some point they are going to go up, the question is when?

I agree that if this were a real market correction applications would continue to go down and that would last until supply = demand and we lost a number of law schools. But there is nothing real about the law school applicant market -- it is much more based on perception than reality.


isn't the perception given by the media still law school = shittiest proposition ever? i mean r/lawschool is like the most depressing shit ever.




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