LSAC: Applicants: -15.9% Forum

[ScottRiqui]

Interesting thing is google trends shows a decline for lsat/law school, etc. The relatively small decline for June might be masked by schools accepting applicants later (hence people taking tests in June instead of waiting for October). I'm fairly confident we'll see the decline continue, and I wouldn't be surprised if the decline was in the double digits for October.

Looking at these charts (http://www.cambridgelsat.com/resources/ ... les-table/), it does seem as if for 2013 potential top scorers are disproportionately opting out of taking the LSAT, even if slightly.

It's happening and it's not slightly, I'll post the data when I'm not mobile.

Any update on this?

Whoops, knew I forgot something.
[charts]

Very interesting - thanks. All of that data is from March/April of 2012, so I'm morbidly curious to see what the most-recent year's numbers will look like.

[bcandybc]

first update of the new cycle from LSAC:

http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... ear-volume

As of 12/06/13, there are 90,032 Fall 2014 applications submitted by 14,171 applicants.

Applicants are down 13.6% from 2013.
Applications are down 15.7% from 2013.

[Young Marino]

first update of the new cycle from LSAC:

http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... ear-volume

As of 12/06/13, there are 90,032 Fall 2014 applications submitted by 14,171 applicants.

Applicants are down 13.6% from 2013.
Applications are down 15.7% from 2013.

I've been toying with the idea of deferring a year and matriculating in the fall of 2015 for this very reason. The market seems to be correcting itself so is it plausible to assume that class of 2017 and 2018 grads will have better employment prospects than the classes of 2008-2011 which has been dubbed by some as "The Lost Generation" of lawyers?

[Tiago Splitter]

first update of the new cycle from LSAC:

http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... ear-volume

As of 12/06/13, there are 90,032 Fall 2014 applications submitted by 14,171 applicants.

Applicants are down 13.6% from 2013.
Applications are down 15.7% from 2013.

I've been toying with the idea of deferring a year and matriculating in the fall of 2015 for this very reason. The market seems to be correcting itself so is it plausible to assume that class of 2017 and 2018 grads will have better employment prospects than the classes of 2008-2011 which has been dubbed by some as "The Lost Generation" of lawyers?

It won't make much difference if you're gunning for Biglaw but if you'd be happy with any legal job then yes things will definitely be better.

Great to see these updated numbers.

[John_rizzy_rawls]

Down another 15% from 2013. That's actually a little shocking.

[rstahl]

Down another 15% from 2013. That's actually a little shocking.

And yet USC still has me complete 10/28. Cruel.

I wonder if getting into T1 schools will be approximately 15% easier too, or whether this year a higher percent of them will start intentionally decreasing class size.

[Happy Gilmore]

Down another 15% from 2013. That's actually a little shocking.

And yet USC still has me complete 10/28. Cruel.

I wonder if getting into T1 schools will be approximately 15% easier too, or whether this year a higher percent of them will start intentionally decreasing class size.

It may go down slightly but I wouldn't expect it to drop anywhere near 15% though

[John_rizzy_rawls]

Down another 15% from 2013. That's actually a little shocking.

And yet USC still has me complete 10/28. Cruel.

I wonder if getting into T1 schools will be approximately 15% easier too, or whether this year a higher percent of them will start intentionally decreasing class size.

USC and most top schools are doling out decisions later, on average, this year

[Split90]

yay!

[romothesavior]

Down another 15% from 2013. That's actually a little shocking.

It really is. I thought it would normalize after last year.

[BLUERUFiO]

This makes me so happy as someone filling out apps in January. Come on LSAT score, you know you want to be stellar! I hope this correction equates to better job prospects for the class of 2017. I bet it does.

[KevinP]

Fyi, in terms of YTD percentages, most of the decline was from the < 140 group. 170-174 saw a relatively small decrease, and 175+ had >10% increase.*

*as of 12/06/13

[Split90]

.

[RhymesLikeDimes]

Fyi, in terms of YTD percentages, most of the decline was from the < 140 group. 170-174 saw a relatively small decrease, and 175+ had >10% increase.*

*as of 12/06/13

Better applicants are more likely to apply early, so this will probably correct itself in the coming months.

Or were you comparing YTD 2013 to this point in 2012?

[billydaduck]

could you link a source on the 170-174 175+ numbers

[doing_it_in_a_car]

https://twitter.com/SpiveyConsult

http://spiveyconsulting.com/blog/2014-l ... rsus-2013/

[Split90]

I see. So that ptc change is between last year and this year. Not to mention 175 + is 99.4% and above of all test takers--which means they are not that many to begin with. So even a slight increase of the number in that score range group could give us a false impression.

Nice. A real-life number and percentage trick.
Unlikely to play against us. I think.

[jbagelboy]

Fyi, in terms of YTD percentages, most of the decline was from the < 140 group. 170-174 saw a relatively small decrease, and 175+ had >10% increase.*

*as of 12/06/13

Better applicants are more likely to apply early, so this will probably correct itself in the coming months.

Or were you comparing YTD 2013 to this point in 2012?

Could it also indicate that people with scores lower than 140 are starting to wise up about the market, realize its not worth applying in that range, and retake or drop it altogether? Maybe this is just wishful thinking but the "crisis of legal education" has received so much press recently

[linkx13]

tg

[20141023]

.

[BLUERUFiO]

What is the reasoning for this? The lower performers wait till February to take the LSAT?

[20141023]

.

[KevinP]

Fyi, in terms of YTD percentages, most of the decline was from the < 140 group. 170-174 saw a relatively small decrease, and 175+ had >10% increase.*

*as of 12/06/13

Better applicants are more likely to apply early, so this will probably correct itself in the coming months.

Or were you comparing YTD 2013 to this point in 2012?

YTD 2013 vs YTD 2012

[Clearly]

I see. So that ptc change is between last year and this year. Not to mention 175 + is 99.4% and above of all test takers--which means they are not that many to begin with. So even a slight increase of the number in that score range group could give us a false impression.

Nice. A real-life number and percentage trick.
Unlikely to play against us. I think.

This isn't a trick, and its not flawed...it's the nature of statistics at the margins...

[ScottRiqui]

I see. So that ptc change is between last year and this year. Not to mention 175 + is 99.4% and above of all test takers--which means they are not that many to begin with. So even a slight increase of the number in that score range group could give us a false impression.

Nice. A real-life number and percentage trick.
Unlikely to play against us. I think.

This isn't a trick, and its not flawed...it's the nature of statistics at the margins...

Exactly. My statistics prof used to call it "the tyranny of small numbers".