Waitlist chances different this year?

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02889
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Waitlist chances different this year?

Postby 02889 » Sun Jan 27, 2013 10:01 am

I'd love to hear some thoughts on this year's waitlist chances, as more and more of us get the news that we've been put on the WL.

People seem to be WL'd if:

1) they have outstanding numbers but are unlikely to attend (YP) or otherwise had an application that didn't sit well enough with the person reading it;

2) they are splitters and have an LSAT or GPA that could be helpful to balance the school's medians by the end of the cycle; or

3) they aren't good enough to get in (perhaps their numbers fall between 25th and median), but are either in the range of a very long-shot acceptance or are an interesting applicant.

And, looking at LSN, many of the people who are in category #1 generally go to a better school anyway, so the YP was normally a smart admissions assessment. The people in #2 (and the rest from #1) are understandably the ones who are always pulled from the waitlist, to bolster the medians as necessary. The people in group #3 might be taken off the waitlist late in the game, if the medians are secure, they have extra spots to fill, and they need more people to pay sticker.

Do people think that this cycle will be more of the same?

Going in, I had thought (as a member of group #3 when it comes to CCN) that I had better chances this year at getting in off the WL, but now my guess is that in this cycle it will be harder for group #3 to get accepted from schools' WLs because the panic about maintaining medians will be so great that schools will want to only take groups #1 and #2. If they had any spots left to fill in the summer, why would they ever pass up on someone from groups #1 or #2 if they still had any (which they will) to give the spot to someone in #3?

Any thoughts? This year's WL: slightly easier if you're a splitter, but slightly harder if you're below median?

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Re: Waitlist chances different this year?

Postby LRGhost » Sun Jan 27, 2013 5:35 pm

It depends on how schools respond to decreased applications and 170s. They all work with roughly the same applicant pool (assuming we're talking about T14s) so medians have a relative value. There's no absolute need to decrease class sizes if there's a gentlemen's agreement to accept roughly the same number of people as always. But if Virginia cuts classes by 15% and maintains medians but Penn keeps their class size (since they cut last cycle) and drops a point in the LSAT, that may negatively impact their ratings. Who knows. IIRC, there was a post here that talked about deans communicating with each other so I imagine this is something they would have all talked about at some point.

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06102016
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Re: Waitlist chances different this year?

Postby 06102016 » Sun Jan 27, 2013 5:58 pm

..

LateModelAmerican
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Re: Waitlist chances different this year?

Postby LateModelAmerican » Sun Jan 27, 2013 6:14 pm

LRGhost wrote:It depends on how schools respond to decreased applications and 170s. They all work with roughly the same applicant pool (assuming we're talking about T14s) so medians have a relative value. There's no absolute need to decrease class sizes if there's a gentlemen's agreement to accept roughly the same number of people as always. But if Virginia cuts classes by 15% and maintains medians but Penn keeps their class size (since they cut last cycle) and drops a point in the LSAT, that may negatively impact their ratings. Who knows. IIRC, there was a post here that talked about deans communicating with each other so I imagine this is something they would have all talked about at some point.


Not sure if Antitrust Troll or just 0L

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Re: Waitlist chances different this year?

Postby LateModelAmerican » Sun Jan 27, 2013 6:46 pm

Okay, I see that LRGhost really is just a 0L. FYI, law schools are not exempt from the Sherman Act. The "gentleman's agreement", you suggest could happen, would be an illegal Agreement in Restraint of Trade. Further, such cartels are almost never successful and the deans of the law schools are smart enough not to bother trying.

Now, look at this chart.

Knock wrote:Using 2012 data from this thread: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=122920&p=3185309&hilit=medians#p3185309

From smallest to biggest class sizes:
1. Stanford University 170
2. University of Chicago 191
3. Cornell University 205
4. Yale University 214
5. Duke University 228
6. University of Pennsylvania 255
7. Northwestern University 271
8. University of California – Berkeley 292
9. University of Virginia 368
10. University of Michigan 371
11. Columbia University 397
12. New York University 450
13. Georgetown University 463

14. Harvard University 559



If Harvard fears it will fall to number 4 in the USNWR, they very well may reduce their class size. Similarly all the other schools on this list, particularly the ones with larger sizes, would cut their class sizes to mitigate any drop in rankings. Any reduction in class size at any of these schools will have a trickle down effect on waitlist movement across the board.

I'd be particularly surprised if Georgetown doesn't reduce its class size, as they're losing ground to the UCLA/Texas/Vandy tier.

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Re: Waitlist chances different this year?

Postby LRGhost » Sun Jan 27, 2013 7:56 pm

LateModelAmerican wrote:Okay, I see that LRGhost really is just a 0L. FYI, law schools are not exempt from the Sherman Act. The "gentleman's agreement", you suggest could happen, would be an illegal Agreement in Restraint of Trade. Further, such cartels are almost never successful and the deans of the law schools are smart enough not to bother trying.

Now, look at this chart.

Knock wrote:Using 2012 data from this thread: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=122920&p=3185309&hilit=medians#p3185309

From smallest to biggest class sizes:
1. Stanford University 170
2. University of Chicago 191
3. Cornell University 205
4. Yale University 214
5. Duke University 228
6. University of Pennsylvania 255
7. Northwestern University 271
8. University of California – Berkeley 292
9. University of Virginia 368
10. University of Michigan 371
11. Columbia University 397
12. New York University 450
13. Georgetown University 463

14. Harvard University 559



If Harvard fears it will fall to number 4 in the USNWR, they very well may reduce their class size. Similarly all the other schools on this list, particularly the ones with larger sizes, would cut their class sizes to mitigate any drop in rankings. Any reduction in class size at any of these schools will have a trickle down effect on waitlist movement across the board.

I'd be particularly surprised if Georgetown doesn't reduce its class size, as they're losing ground to the UCLA/Texas/Vandy tier.


Whatever dude. Harvard won't go to #4 the same way Stanford can never be #1. Columbia and Penn already cut class sizes last cycle. Cutting 10 people at sticker is a loss of ~$2,000,000. Schools would be more likely to take students off of WLs and offer marginal scholarships to coax them away from schools ranked slightly below. Or maybe everyone just cuts back class size to maintain an arbitrary median. MVP won't be cracking into CCN. CCN won't be cracking into YHS. The people handling admissions know this and cutting class sizes for the purposes of moving up is foolish.

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Re: Waitlist chances different this year?

Postby LateModelAmerican » Sun Jan 27, 2013 9:10 pm

LRGhost wrote:Whatever dude. Harvard won't go to #4 the same way Stanford can never be #1. Columbia and Penn already cut class sizes last cycle. Cutting 10 people at sticker is a loss of ~$2,000,000. Schools would be more likely to take students off of WLs and offer marginal scholarships to coax them away from schools ranked slightly below. Or maybe everyone just cuts back class size to maintain an arbitrary median. MVP won't be cracking into CCN. CCN won't be cracking into YHS. The people handling admissions know this and cutting class sizes for the purposes of moving up is foolish.



Oh shit, you are just an Antitrust Troll.

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Re: Waitlist chances different this year?

Postby LRGhost » Sun Jan 27, 2013 9:20 pm

Please do tell how anything in that post deals with collusion.

20141023
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Re: Waitlist chances different this year?

Postby 20141023 » Sun Jan 27, 2013 10:25 pm

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LRGhost
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Re: Waitlist chances different this year?

Postby LRGhost » Sun Jan 27, 2013 10:36 pm

kappycaft1 wrote: If you click on the other tabs you will notice that almost all of the T14 had much lower LSAT 25th percentiles than they currently do back then... The thing that is going to be a killer is the new methodology that U.S. News & World Report is implementing regarding employment rates.


Do you mean to say that 25th percentiles were lower back then than now? That would bode well for reverse splitters, I'd imagine. Is the employment information going to be factored into the rankings coming out this year?

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Re: Waitlist chances different this year?

Postby Jpreece59 » Sun Jan 27, 2013 10:47 pm

kappycaft1 wrote:Take a look at this.

The number of test takers is has dropped to the level it used to be back in the early 2000s. If you click on the other tabs you will notice that almost all of the T14 had much lower LSAT 25th percentiles than they currently do back then. A paucity in strong applicants will equally affect all of the T14, and a small change in LSAT/GPA scores will not be enough to affect a school's ranking this cycle. The thing that is going to be a killer is the new methodology that U.S. News & World Report is implementing regarding employment rates.


Can you elaborate?

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Re: Waitlist chances different this year?

Postby LRGhost » Sun Jan 27, 2013 11:20 pm

Jpreece59 wrote:
kappycaft1 wrote:Take a look at this.

The number of test takers is has dropped to the level it used to be back in the early 2000s. If you click on the other tabs you will notice that almost all of the T14 had much lower LSAT 25th percentiles than they currently do back then. A paucity in strong applicants will equally affect all of the T14, and a small change in LSAT/GPA scores will not be enough to affect a school's ranking this cycle. The thing that is going to be a killer is the new methodology that U.S. News & World Report is implementing regarding employment rates.


Can you elaborate?


http://www.usnews.com/education/best-gr ... l-rankings

20141023
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Re: Waitlist chances different this year?

Postby 20141023 » Mon Jan 28, 2013 12:58 am

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LRGhost
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Re: Waitlist chances different this year?

Postby LRGhost » Mon Jan 28, 2013 1:41 am

kappycaft1 wrote:Exactly what LRGhost said, but here are some further details to explain why this could mean big changes for the T14.


The items you outlined wouldn't be for this upcoming ranking, correct? I guess it comes down to how 'employment' is defined. I imagine they would count all long-term JD required/preferred jobs while discounting school-funded jobs, but I have no idea.

20141023
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Re: Waitlist chances different this year?

Postby 20141023 » Mon Jan 28, 2013 2:06 am

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Re: Waitlist chances different this year?

Postby LRGhost » Mon Jan 28, 2013 3:25 am

I highly doubt there'll be any movement with the larger subgrouping of YHS CCN MVP BDNCG, but I suppose the tie for 7th may be broken. Still, it'll be something to look out for.

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Re: Waitlist chances different this year?

Postby John_rizzy_rawls » Mon Jan 28, 2013 4:05 am

LRGhost wrote:I highly doubt there'll be any movement with the larger subgrouping of YHS CCN MVP BDNCG, but I suppose the tie for 7th may be broken. Still, it'll be something to look out for.


Did you even read the article? You think the addition of a new category into the methodology that will hold 20% weight (only 2.5% less than LSAT and GPA combined) won't have any impact?

UCLA/USC/Vandy/Texas, when (JD required) employment is factored that heavily, may very well be outperforming Michigan, GULC, and Virginia. We won't know until we see though.

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Re: Waitlist chances different this year?

Postby 20141023 » Mon Jan 28, 2013 8:26 am

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LRGhost
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Re: Waitlist chances different this year?

Postby LRGhost » Mon Jan 28, 2013 1:22 pm

Man, it would be a travesty to count school funded jobs...

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02889
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Re: Waitlist chances different this year?

Postby 02889 » Mon Jan 28, 2013 1:31 pm

This isn't where I thought this thread would go, but..
LRGhost wrote:Man, it would be a travesty to count school funded jobs...

Don't they need some way to determine which are reasonable and desirable school-funded jobs and which are just covers for unemployed graduates? It seems like plenty of schools (Penn, for example) offer a handful of competitive post-3L fellowships that involve placement with specific organizations, and that have existed for quite a while. Of course, I'm positive UVA doesn't have 64 of that type of fellowship, but still, how does US News tell the difference?

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Re: Waitlist chances different this year?

Postby curious66 » Mon Jan 28, 2013 2:00 pm

kappycaft1 wrote:Exactly. It isn't necessarily a "new category," though, because the employment category already exists under the current methodology (4.0% for employment directly out of law school, 14.0% for employment 9 months after graduation, and 2.0% for bar passage). Rather, the calculation for the 18% that accounts for the employment rate will simply be changing, probably somewhere along the lines in the post I linked above. The only problem is that we don't have any raw data to be able to see how close schools are right now. If, for example, GULC presently had a raw composite score of 85, Cornell an 84, and UCLA an 83, the drop in GULC's score could be substantial enough (it will likely be around -5%) that it will lose to Cornell (whose drop will be closer to -3%) and even some of the non-T14 T20 schools. (However, I have a feeling that the differences between many of the top schools are only fractions and not whole numbers as big as this, so the drop will potentially have even bigger results than I am portending to above.)



Good points. My thoughts: even though there might be shifts/impacts in the T-14; the schools lower than T14 will also be impacted -- some even more so than the Georgetown example above. Also, even though UCLA/Vandy/Texas may do well in certain areas (i.e. CA, Tenn and Texas), you have to account for the ability for national reach. Personally, i think there will be movement in the CCN & MVP and Duke area.. but I don't see a flat out massive change out of the T14.

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Re: Waitlist chances different this year?

Postby 20141023 » Mon Jan 28, 2013 3:06 pm

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02889
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Re: Waitlist chances different this year?

Postby 02889 » Mon Jan 28, 2013 3:29 pm

kappycaft1 wrote:
curious66 wrote:Good points. My thoughts: even though there might be shifts/impacts in the T-14; the schools lower than T14 will also be impacted -- some even more so than the Georgetown example above. Also, even though UCLA/Vandy/Texas may do well in certain areas (i.e. CA, Tenn and Texas), you have to account for the ability for national reach. Personally, i think there will be movement in the CCN & MVP and Duke area.. but I don't see a flat out massive change out of the T14.

I think you will be surprised. I would bet you money that GULC departs the T14. Although some schools have less national reach, reach is not a factor in the U.S. News & World Report rankings; as long as a school's graduates can get hired somewhere, the employment rates are all that matter. Here is a chart I just came up with that shows which schools will be affected the most by the release of the new rankings. Basically, the more a school was fudging its employment data up until now by including Burger-King-ish jobs in their "employment rates," the bigger their loss will be. (I made two columns to account for the school-paid positions as we do not yet know which way this will swing.)

Image

What are you doing, University of Washington!? Damn.

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Re: Waitlist chances different this year?

Postby LRGhost » Mon Jan 28, 2013 3:30 pm

02889 wrote:This isn't where I thought this thread would go, but..
LRGhost wrote:Man, it would be a travesty to count school funded jobs...

Don't they need some way to determine which are reasonable and desirable school-funded jobs and which are just covers for unemployed graduates? It seems like plenty of schools (Penn, for example) offer a handful of competitive post-3L fellowships that involve placement with specific organizations, and that have existed for quite a while. Of course, I'm positive UVA doesn't have 64 of that type of fellowship, but still, how does US News tell the difference?


I guess they'd have to count it if they count JD Preferred jobs since discounting that would absolutely mess up GULC.

kappycaft1 wrote:I think you will be surprised. I would bet you money that GULC departs the T14.
Image


So UT, Vandy, and USC have better employment numbers than GULC. But what about the other factors like the survey responses and medians? I agree that GULC will go to 14, but I don't see them dropping.

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Re: Waitlist chances different this year?

Postby justonemoregame » Mon Jan 28, 2013 3:49 pm

Seems like the new methodology should reward schools that cut class size, which is good. Why do so many people (lose their jobs) between graduation and 9 months?




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