Will applications continue to decrease next year?

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alwayssunnyinfl
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Re: Will applications continue to decrease next year?

Postby alwayssunnyinfl » Sun Jan 20, 2013 1:47 pm

thelawdoctor wrote:People will avoid grad schools more in bad economies than good ones.

This will apply to us, medical schools, and other grad schools too.

I say good. The less people in the room, the less people trying to eat off my buffet.

The bolded is incredibly untrue.

eric922
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Re: Will applications continue to decrease next year?

Postby eric922 » Sun Jan 20, 2013 2:14 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:
thelawdoctor wrote:People will avoid grad schools more in bad economies than good ones.

Except that historically, the opposite has been true. Grad school has always been seen as a way to hide out from a tough job market.

I think in general you are right, but on the specific issue of law school you may be wrong. I don't think most grad schools cost 200K to attend. I think a lot of people will see that as a risk not worth taking if they don't really want to be lawyers.

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: Will applications continue to decrease next year?

Postby Tiago Splitter » Sun Jan 20, 2013 2:21 pm

eric922 wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:
thelawdoctor wrote:People will avoid grad schools more in bad economies than good ones.

Except that historically, the opposite has been true. Grad school has always been seen as a way to hide out from a tough job market.

I think in general you are right, but on the specific issue of law school you may be wrong. I don't think most grad schools cost 200K to attend. I think a lot of people will see that as a risk not worth taking if they don't really want to be lawyers.

Things may change going forward (the job market has been terrible for a few years yet apps have declined) but law school has always been like every other grad school. Just look at the data:

http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... ummary.asp

http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... stered.asp

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alwayssunnyinfl
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Re: Will applications continue to decrease next year?

Postby alwayssunnyinfl » Sun Jan 20, 2013 2:25 pm

And technically the recession ended three years ago.

gottago
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Re: Will applications continue to decrease next year?

Postby gottago » Sun Jan 20, 2013 6:22 pm

deleted
Last edited by gottago on Fri Aug 16, 2013 1:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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TripTrip
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Re: Will applications continue to decrease next year?

Postby TripTrip » Mon Jan 21, 2013 7:30 am

gottago wrote:what's the tls verdict?

Eh. I think the only thing we can say reasonably is that they won't be back to 2009 levels.

Otherwise, make your own guess.

Theopliske8711
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Re: Will applications continue to decrease next year?

Postby Theopliske8711 » Mon Jan 21, 2013 12:46 pm

I say good. The less people in the room, the less people trying to eat off my buffet.


Or crumbs more like it.

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crestor
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Re: Will applications continue to decrease next year?

Postby crestor » Tue Jan 22, 2013 2:03 am

i hope so.

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scifiguy
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Re: Will applications continue to decrease next year?

Postby scifiguy » Tue Jan 22, 2013 2:17 am

Maybe someone can link to it,k but I remember erading that high LSAT scorers were the ones more likely to not apply to law school (these past couple of cycles if I'm not mistaken).

It was the 170+ takers who ironically were not applying the most.

I'm guessing it's because:

a.) they likely have other options from likely having high credentials in other areas and could get a decent job elsewhere
b.) they are more likely to have also thoroughly reserached the law school and the legal economy and understand its risks better

I'll have to see if I can find it, but it may have been tht atht e 140- crowd was actually applying more or at the same rate.

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scifiguy
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Re: Will applications continue to decrease next year?

Postby scifiguy » Tue Jan 22, 2013 2:21 am

http://www.abajournal.com/news/article/ ... ger_drop_/

Here.
"Are the Smartest People Avoiding Law School?"

Are the wrong people losing interest in law school?

That’s the question posed by the Atlantic, which notes a 13.6 percent drop in applicants who scored highest on the Law School Admission Test, but only a 4.3 percent drop in applicants who scored the lowest. The Law School Admission Council released figures on the one-year drop in applicants at ABA-accredited schools based on numbers collected through the end of March.

The breakdown at the high end: Applicants scoring 175 to 180 dropped 13.6 percent, applicants scoring 170 to 174 dropped 20.7 percent, and applicants scoring 165 to 169 dropped 18.5 percent.

The breakdown at the low end: Applicants scoring less than 140 dropped 4.3 percent, applicants scoring 140 to 144 dropped 6.2 percent, and applicants scoring 145 to 149 dropped 13.8 percent.

thelawdoctor
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Re: Will applications continue to decrease next year?

Postby thelawdoctor » Sun Jan 27, 2013 1:04 pm

alwayssunnyinfl wrote:
thelawdoctor wrote:People will avoid grad schools more in bad economies than good ones.

This will apply to us, medical schools, and other grad schools too.

I say good. The less people in the room, the less people trying to eat off my buffet.

The bolded is incredibly untrue.


you'd think so, but here we are.

what a person should do, and what people actually do are almost never the same thing

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alwayssunnyinfl
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Re: Will applications continue to decrease next year?

Postby alwayssunnyinfl » Sun Jan 27, 2013 1:05 pm

thelawdoctor wrote:
alwayssunnyinfl wrote:
thelawdoctor wrote:People will avoid grad schools more in bad economies than good ones.

This will apply to us, medical schools, and other grad schools too.

I say good. The less people in the room, the less people trying to eat off my buffet.

The bolded is incredibly untrue.


you'd think so, but here we are.

what a person should do, and what people actually do are almost never the same thing

No, I wasn't making a statement on the merits of going to grad school in a bad economy. What you said is demonstrably untrue.

thelawdoctor
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Re: Will applications continue to decrease next year?

Postby thelawdoctor » Sun Jan 27, 2013 1:06 pm

Theopliske8711 wrote:
I say good. The less people in the room, the less people trying to eat off my buffet.


Or crumbs more like it.


even more reason to not want others to take it then huh?

thelawdoctor
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Re: Will applications continue to decrease next year?

Postby thelawdoctor » Sun Jan 27, 2013 1:07 pm

alwayssunnyinfl wrote:
thelawdoctor wrote:
alwayssunnyinfl wrote:
thelawdoctor wrote:People will avoid grad schools more in bad economies than good ones.

This will apply to us, medical schools, and other grad schools too.

I say good. The less people in the room, the less people trying to eat off my buffet.

The bolded is incredibly untrue.


you'd think so, but here we are.

what a person should do, and what people actually do are almost never the same thing

No, I wasn't making a statement on the merits of going to grad school in a bad economy. What you said is demonstrably untrue.


ok, how?

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alwayssunnyinfl
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Re: Will applications continue to decrease next year?

Postby alwayssunnyinfl » Sun Jan 27, 2013 1:17 pm

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/10/educa ... .html?_r=0

http://www.nature.com/scitable/blog/ins ... ions_up_in

http://www.usnews.com/education/best-gr ... s-debunked

Yes, applications are dropping now, but they steadily increased during the recession, and in the past there are spikes in applications during economic downturns. It's a pretty uncontroversial and well-documented trend.

thelawdoctor
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Re: Will applications continue to decrease next year?

Postby thelawdoctor » Sun Jan 27, 2013 1:19 pm

alwayssunnyinfl wrote:http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/10/education/10grad.html?_r=0

http://www.nature.com/scitable/blog/ins ... ions_up_in

http://www.usnews.com/education/best-gr ... s-debunked

Yes, applications are dropping now, but they steadily increased during the recession, and in the past there are spikes in applications during economic downturns. It's a pretty uncontroversial and well-documented trend.


I think it depends on if people see light at the end of it or not.
LS enrollment DID go up for the first few years of the currrent finanical situation. People wanted to be ready for it to bounce back.
Now people are thinking "oh crap, this is just life now............."
I think that is the difference we are seeing.

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suralin
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Re: Will applications continue to decrease next year?

Postby suralin » Sun Jan 27, 2013 1:24 pm

alwayssunnyinfl wrote:http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/10/education/10grad.html?_r=0

http://www.nature.com/scitable/blog/ins ... ions_up_in

http://www.usnews.com/education/best-gr ... s-debunked

Yes, applications are dropping now, but they steadily increased during the recession, and in the past there are spikes in applications during economic downturns. It's a pretty uncontroversial and well-documented trend.


Damn, beat me to it.

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/colleg ... _surge.php

http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/tra ... t-worth-it

http://blog.penelopetrunk.com/2006/01/1 ... adventure/

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/displa ... rad-school

http://www.examiner.com/article/is-grad ... -recession

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: Will applications continue to decrease next year?

Postby Tiago Splitter » Sun Jan 27, 2013 1:25 pm

Here is a link to the number of LS apps going back to 1983. There was a clear inverse correlation between the strength of the economy and the number of apps, but that may have finally broken.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/120669429/Law ... ant-Volume

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alwayssunnyinfl
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Re: Will applications continue to decrease next year?

Postby alwayssunnyinfl » Sun Jan 27, 2013 1:25 pm

thelawdoctor wrote:I think it depends on if people see light at the end of it or not.
LS enrollment DID go up for the first few years of the currrent finanical situation. People wanted to be ready for it to bounce back.
Now people are thinking "oh crap, this is just life now............."
I think that is the difference we are seeing.


Okay. Just wanted to point out that "people will avoid grad schools more in bad economies than good ones" is a misconception on your part is all. One rational decision when the job market is bad is to seek out extra education to make yourself more marketable. The pitfalls of that (over saturated legal job market, astronomical student debt, etc) are on the students to an extent, but there are also institutions that are supposed to balance the rush to law school that happens during bad times.

thelawdoctor
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Re: Will applications continue to decrease next year?

Postby thelawdoctor » Sun Jan 27, 2013 1:30 pm

alwayssunnyinfl wrote:
thelawdoctor wrote:I think it depends on if people see light at the end of it or not.
LS enrollment DID go up for the first few years of the currrent finanical situation. People wanted to be ready for it to bounce back.
Now people are thinking "oh crap, this is just life now............."
I think that is the difference we are seeing.


Okay. Just wanted to point out that "people will avoid grad schools more in bad economies than good ones" is a misconception on your part is all. One rational decision when the job market is bad is to seek out extra education to make yourself more marketable. The pitfalls of that (over saturated legal job market, astronomical student debt, etc) are on the students to an extent, but there are also institutions that are supposed to balance the rush to law school that happens during bad times.


I appreciate the stats. Its rare to get real replies of value on these threads, so thanks man. Good stuff.

For what it's worth I think most Americans would be better off going to trade school, even after a BA, than to grad school.
I see people with Masters in HR and think "WTF?!?!?!"
At least a JD gets a license that you couldn't have without it. Most Masters Degrees are just junk.

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suralin
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Re: Will applications continue to decrease next year?

Postby suralin » Sun Jan 27, 2013 1:36 pm

thelawdoctor wrote:
alwayssunnyinfl wrote:
thelawdoctor wrote:I think it depends on if people see light at the end of it or not.
LS enrollment DID go up for the first few years of the currrent finanical situation. People wanted to be ready for it to bounce back.
Now people are thinking "oh crap, this is just life now............."
I think that is the difference we are seeing.


Okay. Just wanted to point out that "people will avoid grad schools more in bad economies than good ones" is a misconception on your part is all. One rational decision when the job market is bad is to seek out extra education to make yourself more marketable. The pitfalls of that (over saturated legal job market, astronomical student debt, etc) are on the students to an extent, but there are also institutions that are supposed to balance the rush to law school that happens during bad times.


I appreciate the stats. Its rare to get real replies of value on these threads, so thanks man. Good stuff.

For what it's worth I think most Americans would be better off going to trade school, even after a BA, than to grad school.
I see people with Masters in HR and think "WTF?!?!?!"
At least a JD gets a license that you couldn't have without it. Most Masters Degrees are just junk.


Mostly true to the last sentence, but I'd rather have a Master's than a Ph.D. in most fields (e.g., in CS, a Ph.D. doesn't add much over a Master's).

ETA: But then again, I have no interest in attempting to win the lottery and become a tenure track professor.

thelawdoctor
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Re: Will applications continue to decrease next year?

Postby thelawdoctor » Sun Jan 27, 2013 2:23 pm

Many PhD require a Masters to get in, but some allow another doctorate to count for it (like the JD)

Most of the jump in from BA tend to be other "Doctorates" (first prof) like ours and less like a true PhD from what I have seen.
(although no doubt online ones will take anyone with a fist full of dollars)

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justonemoregame
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Re: Will applications continue to decrease next year?

Postby justonemoregame » Sun Jan 27, 2013 2:29 pm

There's no way to tell, but I think matriculants to law school will continue to decline. And mostly because A) tuition will (miraculously) keep going up and B) employment data will not look significantly rosier any time soon. And also C) attention to outcomes will get more broad.

Today, it's hard to forgive current applicants for taking on huge loans for shitty schools, if not impossible, but this is not the way it was a couple of years ago. But there is still clearly a lot of ground to cover when it comes to persuading low LSAT scorers that the world will keep spinning even if they don't become a suit-wearing superhero.

imo, employment stats have no chance of looking good until we get to see employment data from a couple of years' worth of smaller graduating classes, so 2016 at the earliest. Maybe c/o 2014 data will look markedly better, but we're stacking up such a ridiculous backlog of unemployed JDs, who knows.

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CFprez
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Re: Will applications continue to decrease next year?

Postby CFprez » Sun Jan 27, 2013 3:44 pm

scifiguy wrote:http://www.abajournal.com/news/article/are_smartest_people_discouraged_avoiding_law_school_stats_show_bigger_drop_/

Here.
"Are the Smartest People Avoiding Law School?"

Are the wrong people losing interest in law school?

That’s the question posed by the Atlantic, which notes a 13.6 percent drop in applicants who scored highest on the Law School Admission Test, but only a 4.3 percent drop in applicants who scored the lowest. The Law School Admission Council released figures on the one-year drop in applicants at ABA-accredited schools based on numbers collected through the end of March.

The breakdown at the high end: Applicants scoring 175 to 180 dropped 13.6 percent, applicants scoring 170 to 174 dropped 20.7 percent, and applicants scoring 165 to 169 dropped 18.5 percent.

The breakdown at the low end: Applicants scoring less than 140 dropped 4.3 percent, applicants scoring 140 to 144 dropped 6.2 percent, and applicants scoring 145 to 149 dropped 13.8 percent.


My hunch is that the top scorers next year will stay the same or slightly decline. If the top scorers had the biggest drop this time, it is because they are probably the most well informed and connected candidates. For this cycle many of those potential people saw LST numbers and left in larger numbers.

However, I think the low scorers are next. When I talk to some people about how law school is not a safe choice, they kind of get this confused and glazed over look on their face as if being an attorney = automatic WEALTH AND PRESTIGE. But I bet the news cycle will be even less kind to law schools this next year. For example Vermont Law School is starting to lay off employees already. As employees and professors are hitting up the unemployment lines along with law graduates, the story of the law school graduate working at Kmart or Starbucks will have more credibility. For lower scorers I would bet that they depend much more on word of mouth and advice in making their decision. Culture lag and conventional wisdom take a long time to catch up.

And here is hard evidence that law schools are facing a budget crisis next year. 82 LAW SCHOOLS HAVE SEEN DECLINES OF OVER 30%. That really cuts into their bottom lines.
http://www.ctlawtribune.com/PubArticleC ... 0027143905

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RhymesLikeDimes
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Re: Will applications continue to decrease next year?

Postby RhymesLikeDimes » Sun Jan 27, 2013 4:44 pm

scifiguy wrote:http://www.abajournal.com/news/article/are_smartest_people_discouraged_avoiding_law_school_stats_show_bigger_drop_/

Here.
"Are the Smartest People Avoiding Law School?"

Are the wrong people losing interest in law school?

That’s the question posed by the Atlantic, which notes a 13.6 percent drop in applicants who scored highest on the Law School Admission Test, but only a 4.3 percent drop in applicants who scored the lowest. The Law School Admission Council released figures on the one-year drop in applicants at ABA-accredited schools based on numbers collected through the end of March.

The breakdown at the high end: Applicants scoring 175 to 180 dropped 13.6 percent, applicants scoring 170 to 174 dropped 20.7 percent, and applicants scoring 165 to 169 dropped 18.5 percent.

The breakdown at the low end: Applicants scoring less than 140 dropped 4.3 percent, applicants scoring 140 to 144 dropped 6.2 percent, and applicants scoring 145 to 149 dropped 13.8 percent.


Those numbers are somewhat misleading. 2.6% of test takers score between 170 and 180, while 40% score less than 149. Even a slight attrition at the top is going to look like a big deal, while the sheer volume at the low end insulates a big swing from happening. I still agree with the general point though. The stupids who are thrilled to pull a 150 are still stupids who won't take the 30 seconds to google their 4th tier ****-hole of choice.

The loss of 175+ applicants is puzzling though. That's HYSCCN territory, and even in this economy, those are all great options even at sticker.




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