just how "down" of a cycle is it?

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mmbt123
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just how "down" of a cycle is it?

Postby mmbt123 » Thu Dec 06, 2012 1:26 pm

i was looking at law school numbers and for most of the schools, the number of self-reporting applicants are way way down from last year (like about half).

Here's what the lsac says.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
ABA Applicants 82000 85600 87500 78800 68000

2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11
LSAT Takers 142300 151400 171500 155100 130000

The top 20 schools had a total of 6718 matriculants last year so if that number holds steady, that'd be roughly 10% of this year's applicants...
Last edited by mmbt123 on Thu Dec 06, 2012 4:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Zoomie
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Re: just how "down" of a cycle is it?

Postby Zoomie » Thu Dec 06, 2012 2:02 pm

I met with an adcomm from my top choice yesterday and she said they didn't have very many applications. I'm not sure if she meant in comparison to past years or what. It's a Tier 2 state school so maybe the self reporting numbers are reflective of the cycle.

meyersa15
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Re: just how "down" of a cycle is it?

Postby meyersa15 » Thu Dec 06, 2012 3:25 pm

think its worth throwing apps to reaches bc of the drop in applicants? or will it have a minimal effect?

onionz
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Re: just how "down" of a cycle is it?

Postby onionz » Thu Dec 06, 2012 3:28 pm

mmbt123 wrote:i was looking at law school numbers and for most of the schools, the number of self-reporting applicants are way way down from last year (like about half).

Here's what the lsac says.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
ABA Applicants 82000 85600 87500 78800 68000

2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11
LSAT Takers 142300 151400 171500 155100 130000

The top 20 schools admitted a total of 6718 applicants last year so if that number holds steady, that'd be roughly 10% of this year's applicants...



When you say "The top 20 schools admitted" do you mean "admitted" or "matriculated"? The number of admits is going to have a ton of overlap. The top 20 schools could all admit the same 100 people and suddenly we have 2000 "Admits" but really only 100 people.

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justonemoregame
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Re: just how "down" of a cycle is it?

Postby justonemoregame » Thu Dec 06, 2012 3:32 pm

Here's some more reading, I know you guys are hungry:

http://lawprofessors.typepad.com/legalw ... -2013.html

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justonemoregame
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Re: just how "down" of a cycle is it?

Postby justonemoregame » Thu Dec 06, 2012 3:36 pm

meyersa15 wrote:think its worth throwing apps to reaches bc of the drop in applicants? or will it have a minimal effect?



I think this depends on where you are trying to reach. If you're within an LSAT point of a T-14 median, I don't think you're wasting your money.

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gaud
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Re: just how "down" of a cycle is it?

Postby gaud » Thu Dec 06, 2012 3:37 pm

meyersa15 wrote:think its worth throwing apps to reaches bc of the drop in applicants? or will it have a minimal effect?


If I were applying I'd throw some at reaches, but remember they're reaches. IMO, schools are more likely to lower class sizes than drop standards.

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gaud
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Re: just how "down" of a cycle is it?

Postby gaud » Thu Dec 06, 2012 3:38 pm

justonemoregame wrote:
meyersa15 wrote:think its worth throwing apps to reaches bc of the drop in applicants? or will it have a minimal effect?



I think this depends on where you are trying to reach. If you're within an LSAT point of a T-14 median, I don't think you're wasting your money.


this too

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wtrc
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Re: just how "down" of a cycle is it?

Postby wtrc » Thu Dec 06, 2012 4:11 pm

Has anyone heard predictions (yes, would only be speculative) on what next cycle will bring? I talked to my university law school advisor that expected it to rebound significantly, but don't think that's based on anything.

mmbt123
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Re: just how "down" of a cycle is it?

Postby mmbt123 » Thu Dec 06, 2012 4:23 pm

onionz wrote:
mmbt123 wrote:i was looking at law school numbers and for most of the schools, the number of self-reporting applicants are way way down from last year (like about half).

Here's what the lsac says.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
ABA Applicants 82000 85600 87500 78800 68000

2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11
LSAT Takers 142300 151400 171500 155100 130000

The top 20 schools admitted a total of 6718 applicants last year so if that number holds steady, that'd be roughly 10% of this year's applicants...



When you say "The top 20 schools admitted" do you mean "admitted" or "matriculated"? The number of admits is going to have a ton of overlap. The top 20 schools could all admit the same 100 people and suddenly we have 2000 "Admits" but really only 100 people.


I mean matriculated (edited in original post).

mmbt123
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Re: just how "down" of a cycle is it?

Postby mmbt123 » Thu Dec 06, 2012 4:28 pm

gaud wrote:
meyersa15 wrote:think its worth throwing apps to reaches bc of the drop in applicants? or will it have a minimal effect?


If I were applying I'd throw some at reaches, but remember they're reaches. IMO, schools are more likely to lower class sizes than drop standards.


I think they'll hedge and do a bit of both. Lowering class sizes = huge loss of profits. Perhaps in later cycles if the down trend continues, we'll see a bigger shift towards lowering class sizes?

Not sure about next cycle, but at least for this cycle, my pre-law advisor (at a ton 10 undergrad) says that the number of applicants she's seeing is down even from last year.

jym_dawg
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Re: just how "down" of a cycle is it?

Postby jym_dawg » Thu Dec 06, 2012 4:35 pm

This might just be me, but...

I thought the 68,000 number on the LSAC Volume Summary represented the number of applicants for our (12-13) cycle. The author on the blog linked above suggests there will be 58,530 applicants for our cycle, based on a comparison of the June/Oct numbers to historical trends. If the blog is correct, O Happy Days!

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BitterSplitter
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Re: just how "down" of a cycle is it?

Postby BitterSplitter » Thu Dec 06, 2012 5:36 pm

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Last edited by BitterSplitter on Fri Mar 22, 2013 3:32 am, edited 1 time in total.

Cellar-door
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Re: just how "down" of a cycle is it?

Postby Cellar-door » Thu Dec 06, 2012 5:52 pm

As someone who is a splitter I'll like throw in even more apps based on this.
Seems there might be more opportunity for schools to be a bit softer with their GPA floor if it comes with a high LSAT.

ze2151
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Re: just how "down" of a cycle is it?

Postby ze2151 » Thu Dec 06, 2012 5:56 pm

the real question is: what do all those smart people eschewing law school know that you don't know...?

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justonemoregame
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Re: just how "down" of a cycle is it?

Postby justonemoregame » Thu Dec 06, 2012 6:03 pm

ze2151 wrote:the real question is: what do all those smart people eschewing law school know that you don't know...?


Don't go to Emory?

WhiskeynCoke
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Re: just how "down" of a cycle is it?

Postby WhiskeynCoke » Thu Dec 06, 2012 6:24 pm

I thought the 68,000 number on the LSAC Volume Summary represented the number of applicants for our (12-13) cycle.


Incorrect. That number, labeled "Fall 2012," refers to when these applicants are STARTING law school, not applying. LSAC doesn't know how many applicants have applied this cycle yet, because this cycle is far from over. When you sent in your apps didn't they all say "Fall 2013?" The number for the 2012-2013 cycle will be labeled "Fall 2013" and won't be available until next fall(ish).

If the blog is correct, O Happy Days!


O happy days indeed, unless you're a law school. This cycle is fairly widely predicted to have well under 60,000 applicants. Paul Campos breaks this down on his blog pretty well. Something's gonna have to give.

http://insidethelawschoolscam.blogspot. ... fishy.html

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BitterSplitter
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Re: just how "down" of a cycle is it?

Postby BitterSplitter » Mon Feb 18, 2013 5:00 pm

.
Last edited by BitterSplitter on Fri Mar 22, 2013 3:32 am, edited 1 time in total.

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star fox
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Re: just how "down" of a cycle is it?

Postby star fox » Mon Feb 18, 2013 5:06 pm

Apps are definitely down. I wonder if schools are being slow on their admissions decisions as they wait out and see how many apps they receive. Good news for 0Ls. Looks like a trend that should continue as more law school transparency continues to be made available.

PRgradBYU
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Re: just how "down" of a cycle is it?

Postby PRgradBYU » Mon Feb 18, 2013 6:44 pm

john7234797 wrote:Apps are definitely down. I wonder if schools are being slow on their admissions decisions as they wait out and see how many apps they receive. Good news for 0Ls. Looks like a trend that should continue as more law school transparency continues to be made available.


I couldn't be happier that law schools' REAL employment data are coming to light. People are realizing how much of a scam law school really is (minus the T14 and other select schools).

Ti Malice
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Re: just how "down" of a cycle is it?

Postby Ti Malice » Mon Feb 18, 2013 7:32 pm

gaud wrote:
meyersa15 wrote:think its worth throwing apps to reaches bc of the drop in applicants? or will it have a minimal effect?


If I were applying I'd throw some at reaches, but remember they're reaches. IMO, schools are more likely to lower class sizes than drop standards.


Lowering class sizes can only go on for so long, and many schools lowered them quite a bit last cycle.

Ti Malice
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Re: just how "down" of a cycle is it?

Postby Ti Malice » Mon Feb 18, 2013 7:34 pm

weathercoins wrote:I talked to my university law school advisor that expected it to rebound significantly, but don't think that's based on anything.


Don't walk, but run far away from your law school advisor. Don't listen to a word those people have to say.

PRgradBYU
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Re: just how "down" of a cycle is it?

Postby PRgradBYU » Mon Feb 18, 2013 7:44 pm

Ti Malice wrote:
weathercoins wrote:I talked to my university law school advisor that expected it to rebound significantly, but don't think that's based on anything.


Don't walk, but run far away from your law school advisor. Don't listen to a word those people have to say.


Seriously. I swear they're trained to be naively optimistic about law school prospects. My law school advisor insisted on telling me stories about students who were clearly exceptions (e.g. a girl at HLS who hardly studied yet still pulled great grades and landed her dream job) to the norm, and I'm sure she succeeded in instilling false hope into other pre-law students.

LRGhost
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Re: just how "down" of a cycle is it?

Postby LRGhost » Mon Feb 18, 2013 7:46 pm

Are schools actually being slow this cycle? I'd imagine that a lot of it is just bias since we're in it. Just for quick looks, it seems like everything is on schedule or maybe a week or two behind at the worst which isn't much. They may lean more heavily on WLs but who knows.




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