2012 October LSAT Takers: 37,780! (-16.4%)

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florida1949
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Re: 2012 October LSAT Takers: 37,780! (-16.4%)

Postby florida1949 » Fri Nov 16, 2012 7:17 pm

joedf wrote:Thanks for the graph, man. Where's it from?


florida1949 wrote:http://lsatblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/law-schools-applicants-rankings.html

one_by_one
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Re: 2012 October LSAT Takers: 37,780! (-16.4%)

Postby one_by_one » Fri Nov 16, 2012 7:18 pm

Isnt that table for last cycle's LSAT thru 3/12 though? Still interesting, hoping that the trend held for June and Oct 2012

joedf
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Re: 2012 October LSAT Takers: 37,780! (-16.4%)

Postby joedf » Fri Nov 16, 2012 7:22 pm

florida1949 wrote:
joedf wrote:Thanks for the graph, man. Where's it from?


florida1949 wrote:http://lsatblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/law-schools-applicants-rankings.html


Ah gotcha. I was hoping that graph was specifically for this October's test. Thanks though!

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justonemoregame
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Re: 2012 October LSAT Takers: 37,780! (-16.4%)

Postby justonemoregame » Fri Nov 16, 2012 7:35 pm

That graph represented the scores of law school applicants last year through March 12, is that right?

florida1949
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Re: 2012 October LSAT Takers: 37,780! (-16.4%)

Postby florida1949 » Fri Nov 16, 2012 7:46 pm

justonemoregame wrote:That graph represented the scores of law school applicants last year through March 12, is that right?


yeah that's what i got from the article i.e. it's not neccesarily the number of people who scored in the those ranges

one_by_one
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Re: 2012 October LSAT Takers: 37,780! (-16.4%)

Postby one_by_one » Fri Nov 16, 2012 7:59 pm

florida1949 wrote:
justonemoregame wrote:That graph represented the scores of law school applicants last year through March 12, is that right?


yeah that's what i got from the article i.e. it's not neccesarily the number of people who scored in the those ranges


Oh right, forgot about that -- makes sense that there isn't a breakdown available then

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Yukos
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Re: 2012 October LSAT Takers: 37,780! (-16.4%)

Postby Yukos » Fri Nov 16, 2012 8:01 pm

So what are law schools going to do? Just accept the lower medians? Continue cutting class/sizes and throwing money? Close?

I'm hoping for a 1-2 LSAT drop across the board AND smaller class sizes, but maybe that's asking for too much.

Paul Campos
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Re: 2012 October LSAT Takers: 37,780! (-16.4%)

Postby Paul Campos » Fri Nov 16, 2012 8:08 pm

I ran a few numbers, and it appears that there are likely to be fewer applicants in this cycle than the total number of people admitted to ABA law schools two years ago.

What's the law school equivalent of Peak Oil?

WhiskeynCoke
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Re: 2012 October LSAT Takers: 37,780! (-16.4%)

Postby WhiskeynCoke » Fri Nov 16, 2012 8:16 pm

It appears that this is may be a year the bottom drops out.

http://insidethelawschoolscam.blogspot.com/

Basically, it looks like there will be less APPLICANTS this cycle than there were people ADMITTED 2 years ago. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of the bottom feeders go out of business.

LAST Cycle: http://lsatblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/ad ... asier.html
175+: 659
170-174: 2571
Total 170+: 3230
T14 spots (estimate: c/o 2015: 4342)

If this cycle turns out down ~15% (assuming even spread, which won't happen)
175+:560
170-174: 2185
Total 170+: 2745

Only 2745 170+ scorers competing for all those spots. Either class sizes will have to drop or schools will get incredibly desperate. Cast your nets wide. There might be good fishin' this season.

florida1949
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Re: 2012 October LSAT Takers: 37,780! (-16.4%)

Postby florida1949 » Fri Nov 16, 2012 8:36 pm

WhiskeynCoke wrote:It appears that this is may be a year the bottom drops out.

http://insidethelawschoolscam.blogspot.com/

Basically, it looks like there will be less APPLICANTS this cycle than there were people ADMITTED 2 years ago. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of the bottom feeders go out of business.

LAST Cycle: http://lsatblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/ad ... asier.html
175+: 659
170-174: 2571
Total 170+: 3230
T14 spots (estimate: c/o 2015: 4342)

If this cycle turns out down ~15% (assuming even spread, which won't happen)
175+:560
170-174: 2185
Total 170+: 2745

Only 2745 170+ scorers competing for all those spots. Either class sizes will have to drop or schools will get incredibly desperate. Cast your nets wide. There might be good fishin' this season.


yeah and if the ~15% decrease is more in line with the trends we saw last year, then the real 170+ number could be even lower, right?

I AM HAVING A GOOD DAY

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helix23
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Re: 2012 October LSAT Takers: 37,780! (-16.4%)

Postby helix23 » Fri Nov 16, 2012 8:41 pm

Yale just texted me: "hey"

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North
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Re: 2012 October LSAT Takers: 37,780! (-16.4%)

Postby North » Fri Nov 16, 2012 8:47 pm

florida1949 wrote:yeah and if the ~15% decrease is more in line with the trends we saw last year, then the real 170+ number could be even lower, right?

My 168 and I are interested in anyone's opinion on this.

helix23 wrote:Yale just texted me: "hey"

This made me laugh.

illiniguy1551
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Re: 2012 October LSAT Takers: 37,780! (-16.4%)

Postby illiniguy1551 » Fri Nov 16, 2012 8:51 pm

Will the decreasing numbers affect tier two schools as much as it will affect T14, specifically in regards to how much money the schools will give out?

WhiskeynCoke
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Re: 2012 October LSAT Takers: 37,780! (-16.4%)

Postby WhiskeynCoke » Fri Nov 16, 2012 9:12 pm

T2 will feel the squeeze even more due to the "domino effect." To fill their classes, the T14 have to dip lower in the applicant pool, taking away applicants from the T1, who subsequently must take applicants away from the T2. I am very interested to see how this plays out, as it seems that law schools will finally be subjected somewhat to the laws of supply and demand.

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helix23
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Re: 2012 October LSAT Takers: 37,780! (-16.4%)

Postby helix23 » Fri Nov 16, 2012 9:16 pm

illiniguy1551 wrote:Will the decreasing numbers affect tier two schools as much as it will affect T14, specifically in regards to how much money the schools will give out?


It's possible. LSATs/applicants are down across the boards. If schools want to maintain their medians or even try to ascend in the rankings, they'll have to throw some serious cash out there. Just speculation. If the T14-T20 want to keep their class sizes, they'll have to take median hits and accept people with lower LSAT scores, then there will be less applicants available for the T30, and then for the T40, and so on. just speculation on my part.

EDIT: lol, what whiskey just said above me, posted at the same time

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helix23
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Re: 2012 October LSAT Takers: 37,780! (-16.4%)

Postby helix23 » Fri Nov 16, 2012 9:19 pm

North wrote:
helix23 wrote:Yale just texted me: "hey"

This made me laugh.


I played it coo I waz like "sup?"

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warandpeace
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Re: 2012 October LSAT Takers: 37,780! (-16.4%)

Postby warandpeace » Fri Nov 16, 2012 9:30 pm

helix23 wrote:
North wrote:
helix23 wrote:Yale just texted me: "hey"

This made me laugh.


I played it coo I waz like "sup?"


lol

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DougieFresh
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Re: 2012 October LSAT Takers: 37,780! (-16.4%)

Postby DougieFresh » Fri Nov 16, 2012 9:38 pm

helix23 wrote:
North wrote:
helix23 wrote:Yale just texted me: "hey"

This made me laugh.


I played it coo I waz like "sup?"


this

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mqt
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Re: 2012 October LSAT Takers: 37,780! (-16.4%)

Postby mqt » Fri Nov 16, 2012 10:44 pm

Did my 171 just become a golden ticket?

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sinfiery
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Re: 2012 October LSAT Takers: 37,780! (-16.4%)

Postby sinfiery » Fri Nov 16, 2012 10:53 pm

This is getting me a bit too excited about Yale.

Maybe they'll be forced to pay attention to numbers this year.

WanderingPondering
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Re: 2012 October LSAT Takers: 37,780! (-16.4%)

Postby WanderingPondering » Fri Nov 16, 2012 11:01 pm

Whats this going to mean for the rest of T1? Will someone with a 167 be able to target schools with current medians at 169/169?

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banjo
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Re: 2012 October LSAT Takers: 37,780! (-16.4%)

Postby banjo » Sat Nov 17, 2012 10:04 am

It's too early to celebrate. Standard 503 only requires that law schools use a "valid and reliable" admission test to assess an applicant. If TTTTs can prove that the GMAT or GRE is a valid and reliable predictor of success in law school, they can poach potential business school and graduate school applicants. There are also a few other ways law schools can avoid the LSAT requirement, including creating temporary "experimental" programs and/or pushing for the ABA to drop the standard altogether. Law schools are better prepared this time, so let's see what happens.

hunter.d
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Re: 2012 October LSAT Takers: 37,780! (-16.4%)

Postby hunter.d » Sat Nov 17, 2012 10:30 am

Last time June+Oct numbers were this low was 2000-2001.....

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risa
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Re: 2012 October LSAT Takers: 37,780! (-16.4%)

Postby risa » Sat Nov 17, 2012 2:49 pm

I assume when you are saying -16.4% that is from last year's October test? (not June's or the average or something)
Wasn't last year down from 2010 numbers too? Anyone know (or able to point me to a thread where I'm sure this has been covered!) what the drop has been over the last two years or so?

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sinfiery
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Re: 2012 October LSAT Takers: 37,780! (-16.4%)

Postby sinfiery » Sat Nov 17, 2012 2:55 pm

risa wrote:I assume when you are saying -16.4% that is from last year's October test? (not June's or the average or something)
Wasn't last year down from 2010 numbers too? Anyone know (or able to point me to a thread where I'm sure this has been covered!) what the drop has been over the last two years or so?

0.43845950238221281101111699311805
edit:im a fool
Last edited by sinfiery on Sat Nov 17, 2012 2:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.




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