romothesavior wrote: Gail wrote: darkatillam2 wrote:
There won't be 45,000 grads in 3 years. Law school applicants are their lowest in 20 years (so says the Dean of a T2 I spoke too - however, I'd like to see some hard data on actual applicants because I know there has been huge drops in LSAT takers, but have yet to find out the total number of ABA applicants going to school this year).
Supply will balance out demand at some point. In the mean time, get into a school that's in the top 50% of total schools then?
Law schools have no shortage of applicants. The same number will graduate, even if the same number does not apply to law school.
There might be more than 45,000 grads in 3 years.
Not necessarily. Some of the very bottom tier schools are scrambling because they might not have the applicants to fill their classes in a year or two. Some of them are getting to the point where they have to admit almost everyone who applies. What happens when even that isn't enough to maintain their class sizes? Tamanaha has actually predicted that some schools might start seeing financial hardship soon, and some may even close. Law schools exist to make money, either for themselves or for the university. The universities aren't going to subsidize them because they add almost zero value outside of the financial benefits.
Also, almost every school across the board is shrinking class sizes. I would be surprised if there are 45k students in law school next year. Could be closer to 40k.
I certainly hope you're right about the numbers, and I definitely see a much-needed decline in law school students. It appears from the data that's been released by LSAC that the T4s will still have plenty of applicants, as the steepest declines in applications have been with the higher scoring LSAT takers. I am by no means an expert, but I can only foresee this going one of two ways: 1. Higher ranked schools severely trim their class size to keep their medians (thus probably resulting in higher tuition to prevent layoffs/cutbacks in services) or 2. Your scenario plays out and the higher ranked schools begin accepting lower and lower numbers thus eating into the potential applicant pool for bottom-feeding schools.
I think as long as student loans are being passed out like candy at a fat kid birthday party tuition is only going to continue to rise exponentially.
Caveat: I have done ZERO research into this specifically, I'm pretty much going on a faulty assumption that law schools (which are a completely unique entity) are going to cow-tow to market forces.