Predict my colleagues chances at t-14

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run26.2
Posts: 897
Joined: Thu Jul 01, 2010 1:35 am

Re: Predict my colleagues chances at t-14

Postby run26.2 » Thu Apr 26, 2012 4:27 pm

Geon wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:
Geon wrote:I tend to agree with he won't get in, but on the other hand, how does one explain others getting with basically equally low stats.


It's been explained. Splitters, reverse splitters, and URMs. Gotta have a GPA or LSAT above the median or be a URM. Having GPA and LSAT below the 25th %ile without URM status means not happening.

Let me rephrase my question more clearly. When I said that some people were getting in with 3.1s and 155s, another poster asked how did I know it was the same guy getting the 3.1 and 155. And I didn't. My question would be how do you or I know its not the same guy?

There simply aren't enough data points for us to predict accurately, but it doesn't look good for your friend. Out of all the profiles on LSN for 2010-2011 application year, there were only 2 reported T-14 acceptances with LSAT between 160 and 164 and GPA between 3.1 and 3.33.

Both were URM.

http://lawschoolnumbers.com/Rhiawyn
http://lawschoolnumbers.com/ehwilliams2

Take a look at the table at the end of Duke's ABA data (the only T-14 I could find with this type of data):
--LinkRemoved--
3 out of 282 that fit your friend's profile were accepted. Most people on here would probably say that the people that were accepted were URMs, but they could have been people like your friend. It's possible, but it just looks like a real long shot.

If I were him, I'd focus on Cornell and Northwestern and then schools further down.

Geon
Posts: 143
Joined: Thu Nov 03, 2011 1:10 am

Re: Predict my colleagues chances at t-14

Postby Geon » Thu Apr 26, 2012 11:48 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:
Geon wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:
Geon wrote:I tend to agree with he won't get in, but on the other hand, how does one explain others getting with basically equally low stats.


It's been explained. Splitters, reverse splitters, and URMs. Gotta have a GPA or LSAT above the median or be a URM. Having GPA and LSAT below the 25th %ile without URM status means not happening.

Let me rephrase my question more clearly. When I said that some people were getting in with 3.1s and 155s, another poster asked how did I know it was the same guy getting the 3.1 and 155. And I didn't. My question would be how do you or I know its not the same guy?


Cuz.

http://uva.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats

Low LSAT is 156, with a 3.88 GPA (no mention of race, might be in-state which is a big boost for UVA.)

Low GPA is 2.93, with a 171 LSAT.

The same story repeats itself every year, and not just at UVA. It's not like your buddy is just barely below both medians, where his softs might push him over. Based on your guess of his LSAT performance he'll be below both 25th percentiles, which is a killer. Unless, as dingbat said, Daddy's name is on the building.


Ok, then your point is well reasoned, it appears to be a very large exceptional case.

Geon
Posts: 143
Joined: Thu Nov 03, 2011 1:10 am

Re: Predict my colleagues chances at t-14

Postby Geon » Thu Apr 26, 2012 11:58 pm

run26.2 wrote:
Geon wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:
Geon wrote:I tend to agree with he won't get in, but on the other hand, how does one explain others getting with basically equally low stats.


It's been explained. Splitters, reverse splitters, and URMs. Gotta have a GPA or LSAT above the median or be a URM. Having GPA and LSAT below the 25th %ile without URM status means not happening.

Let me rephrase my question more clearly. When I said that some people were getting in with 3.1s and 155s, another poster asked how did I know it was the same guy getting the 3.1 and 155. And I didn't. My question would be how do you or I know its not the same guy?

There simply aren't enough data points for us to predict accurately, but it doesn't look good for your friend. Out of all the profiles on LSN for 2010-2011 application year, there were only 2 reported T-14 acceptances with LSAT between 160 and 164 and GPA between 3.1 and 3.33.

Both were URM.

http://lawschoolnumbers.com/Rhiawyn
http://lawschoolnumbers.com/ehwilliams2

Take a look at the table at the end of Duke's ABA data (the only T-14 I could find with this type of data):
--LinkRemoved--
3 out of 282 that fit your friend's profile were accepted. Most people on here would probably say that the people that were accepted were URMs, but they could have been people like your friend. It's possible, but it just looks like a real long shot.

If I were him, I'd focus on Cornell and Northwestern and then schools further down.


Ok, that is fairly convincing, that is all I was asking for. But Duke's gpa requirement is still among the highest of the t-14 3.6-3.8. Anyhow, what about Berkeley, and Virginia aren't they supposedly holistic?

bobbyh1919
Posts: 560
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2011 9:40 pm

Re: Predict my colleagues chances at t-14

Postby bobbyh1919 » Fri Apr 27, 2012 12:51 am

Being holistic doesn't mean a school will set numbers to the side for the sake of accepting an impressive resume. Some schools seem more willing to dip into lower numbers than others, but your friend is facing a huge uphill battle until he gets into the upper 160's.

rglifberg
Posts: 278
Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2011 6:43 pm

Re: Predict my colleagues chances at t-14

Postby rglifberg » Sat Apr 28, 2012 1:41 pm

You should change the title of this thread to "Predict my chances at a t-14"

Geon
Posts: 143
Joined: Thu Nov 03, 2011 1:10 am

Re: Predict my colleagues chances at t-14

Postby Geon » Sat Apr 28, 2012 9:56 pm

rglifberg wrote:You should change the title of this thread to "Predict my chances at a t-14"

My resume is not so impressive, but my grades are better.




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