Total law school applicants down 16.7% from last year

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Paul Campos
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Total law school applicants down 16.7% from last year

Postby Paul Campos » Fri Jan 20, 2012 2:19 pm

As of Jan. 13, per ABA Journal. No info available on how the decline is distributed, i.e., whether it's consistent across the board or whether relatively fewer people with high numbers or low numbers are applying.

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splitbrain
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Re: Total law school applicants down 16.7% from last year

Postby splitbrain » Fri Jan 20, 2012 2:22 pm

Paul Campos wrote:As of Jan. 13, per ABA Journal. No info available on how the decline is distributed, i.e., whether it's consistent across the board or whether relatively fewer people with high numbers or low numbers are applying.


My money's on no significant difference between the two groups, however I am interested to know if the drop is uniform among all tiers of law schools.

On that note, what a great time to apply...

iamrobk
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Re: Total law school applicants down 16.7% from last year

Postby iamrobk » Fri Jan 20, 2012 2:28 pm

splitbrain wrote:
Paul Campos wrote:As of Jan. 13, per ABA Journal. No info available on how the decline is distributed, i.e., whether it's consistent across the board or whether relatively fewer people with high numbers or low numbers are applying.


My money's on no significant difference between the two groups, however I am interested to know if the drop is uniform among all tiers of law schools.

On that note, what a great time to apply...

Yeah, should definitely help make OCI easier in a few years...

MrAnon
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Re: Total law school applicants down 16.7% from last year

Postby MrAnon » Fri Jan 20, 2012 2:28 pm

Smart money always gets out first. Dumb money keeps buying.

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splitbrain
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Re: Total law school applicants down 16.7% from last year

Postby splitbrain » Fri Jan 20, 2012 2:30 pm

MrAnon wrote:Smart money always gets out first. Dumb money keeps buying.


Yes because there is no such thing as cycles, the profession is doomed, and no schools give out scholarships or grants anymore...

:roll:

ryemanhattan
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Re: Total law school applicants down 16.7% from last year

Postby ryemanhattan » Fri Jan 20, 2012 2:31 pm

MrAnon wrote:Smart money always gets out first. Dumb money keeps buying.



Yup. You nailed it. That's exactly how Warren Buffet didn't become rich.

MrAnon
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Re: Total law school applicants down 16.7% from last year

Postby MrAnon » Fri Jan 20, 2012 2:31 pm

iamrobk wrote:
splitbrain wrote:
Paul Campos wrote:As of Jan. 13, per ABA Journal. No info available on how the decline is distributed, i.e., whether it's consistent across the board or whether relatively fewer people with high numbers or low numbers are applying.


My money's on no significant difference between the two groups, however I am interested to know if the drop is uniform among all tiers of law schools.

On that note, what a great time to apply...

Yeah, should definitely help make OCI easier in a few years...


For who?

ryemanhattan
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Re: Total law school applicants down 16.7% from last year

Postby ryemanhattan » Fri Jan 20, 2012 2:34 pm

iamrobk wrote:
splitbrain wrote:
Paul Campos wrote:As of Jan. 13, per ABA Journal. No info available on how the decline is distributed, i.e., whether it's consistent across the board or whether relatively fewer people with high numbers or low numbers are applying.


My money's on no significant difference between the two groups, however I am interested to know if the drop is uniform among all tiers of law schools.

On that note, what a great time to apply...

Yeah, should definitely help make OCI easier in a few years...


No, it shouldn't. There will still be the same # of law students, approximately. It should make this application cycle slightly friendlier/ more generous though, especially at lower ranked schools.

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caputlupinum
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Re: Total law school applicants down 16.7% from last year

Postby caputlupinum » Fri Jan 20, 2012 2:55 pm

MrAnon wrote:Smart money always gets out first. Dumb money keeps buying.


For finance it's the other way around

MrAnon
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Re: Total law school applicants down 16.7% from last year

Postby MrAnon » Fri Jan 20, 2012 3:00 pm

caputlupinum wrote:
MrAnon wrote:Smart money always gets out first. Dumb money keeps buying.


For finance it's the other way around


no, its not.

dolfan0516
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Re: Total law school applicants down 16.7% from last year

Postby dolfan0516 » Fri Jan 20, 2012 3:31 pm

MrAnon wrote:
caputlupinum wrote:
MrAnon wrote:Smart money always gets out first. Dumb money keeps buying.


For finance it's the other way around


no, its not.


Yes it is. Dumb money panics and sells at the first sign of decline. Smart money knows thats the time to buy (more).

timbs4339
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Re: Total law school applicants down 16.7% from last year

Postby timbs4339 » Fri Jan 20, 2012 6:46 pm

iamrobk wrote:
splitbrain wrote:
Paul Campos wrote:As of Jan. 13, per ABA Journal. No info available on how the decline is distributed, i.e., whether it's consistent across the board or whether relatively fewer people with high numbers or low numbers are applying.


My money's on no significant difference between the two groups, however I am interested to know if the drop is uniform among all tiers of law schools.

On that note, what a great time to apply...

Yeah, should definitely help make OCI easier in a few years...


Please be flame.

MrAnon
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Re: Total law school applicants down 16.7% from last year

Postby MrAnon » Fri Jan 20, 2012 7:06 pm

dolfan0516 wrote:
MrAnon wrote:
caputlupinum wrote:
MrAnon wrote:Smart money always gets out first. Dumb money keeps buying.


For finance it's the other way around


no, its not.


Yes it is. Dumb money panics and sells at the first sign of decline. Smart money knows thats the time to buy (more).


No this is still wrong. You are trying to hijack a colloquialism to make it fit around your idea.

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sunynp
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Re: Total law school applicants down 16.7% from last year

Postby sunynp » Fri Jan 20, 2012 7:15 pm

What does this even mean? What does finance have to do with law school admissions? Are you trying to say this is a good time to get into law?

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TatNurner
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Re: Total law school applicants down 16.7% from last year

Postby TatNurner » Fri Jan 20, 2012 7:20 pm

dolfan0516 wrote:
MrAnon wrote:
caputlupinum wrote:
MrAnon wrote:Smart money always gets out first. Dumb money keeps buying.


For finance it's the other way around


no, its not.


Yes it is. Dumb money panics and sells at the first sign of decline. Smart money knows thats the time to buy (more).


You guys are all right, you are just talking about different stages of the cycle, where the smart/dumb money will behave differently depending on what is going on.

--ImageRemoved--

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MrPapagiorgio
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Re: Total law school applicants down 16.7% from last year

Postby MrPapagiorgio » Fri Jan 20, 2012 7:28 pm

ryemanhattan wrote:
iamrobk wrote:Yeah, should definitely help make OCI easier in a few years...


No, it shouldn't. There will still be the same # of law students, approximately. It should make this application cycle slightly friendlier/ more generous though, especially at lower ranked schools.

Exactly. Applying may be easier, but schools will still fill the classes.

God there is a lot of derp in this thread.

iamrobk
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Re: Total law school applicants down 16.7% from last year

Postby iamrobk » Fri Jan 20, 2012 7:43 pm

MrPapagiorgio wrote:
ryemanhattan wrote:
iamrobk wrote:Yeah, should definitely help make OCI easier in a few years...


No, it shouldn't. There will still be the same # of law students, approximately. It should make this application cycle slightly friendlier/ more generous though, especially at lower ranked schools.

Exactly. Applying may be easier, but schools will still fill the classes.

God there is a lot of derp in this thread.

Fair enough. Guess I should have said "hopefully" instead of "should," in only because it will (in theory, anyway) lead to lesser qualified people at higher schools, who may not be as prepared. But we'll see.

MrAnon
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Re: Total law school applicants down 16.7% from last year

Postby MrAnon » Fri Jan 20, 2012 7:53 pm

--ImageRemoved--


We are entering the "return to normal" stage.

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ColtsFan88
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Re: Total law school applicants down 16.7% from last year

Postby ColtsFan88 » Fri Jan 20, 2012 7:59 pm

iamrobk wrote:
MrPapagiorgio wrote:
ryemanhattan wrote:
iamrobk wrote:Yeah, should definitely help make OCI easier in a few years...


No, it shouldn't. There will still be the same # of law students, approximately. It should make this application cycle slightly friendlier/ more generous though, especially at lower ranked schools.

Exactly. Applying may be easier, but schools will still fill the classes.

God there is a lot of derp in this thread.

Fair enough. Guess I should have said "hopefully" instead of "should," in only because it will (in theory, anyway) lead to lesser qualified people at higher schools, who may not be as prepared. But we'll see.


LOL, I doubt it.

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MrPapagiorgio
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Re: Total law school applicants down 16.7% from last year

Postby MrPapagiorgio » Fri Jan 20, 2012 7:59 pm

iamrobk wrote:
MrPapagiorgio wrote:
ryemanhattan wrote:
iamrobk wrote:Yeah, should definitely help make OCI easier in a few years...


No, it shouldn't. There will still be the same # of law students, approximately. It should make this application cycle slightly friendlier/ more generous though, especially at lower ranked schools.

Exactly. Applying may be easier, but schools will still fill the classes.

God there is a lot of derp in this thread.

Fair enough. Guess I should have said "hopefully" instead of "should," in only because it will (in theory, anyway) lead to lesser qualified people at higher schools, who may not be as prepared. But we'll see.

I knew what you meant in equating drop in applicants with less qualified applicant pool, but it's doubtful. The best schools (that afford the best options at OCI) will still be filled with the same quality applicants. That won't change. Don't expect to see schools in the T14 drop their 25/75's by any significant amount. The most qualified applicants will still be applying.

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hung jury
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Re: Total law school applicants down 16.7% from last year

Postby hung jury » Fri Jan 20, 2012 8:08 pm

The best possible scenario long term is that schools that can afford to do so react by trimming classes in a median-USNEWS ranking war.

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splitbrain
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Re: Total law school applicants down 16.7% from last year

Postby splitbrain » Fri Jan 20, 2012 9:15 pm

sunynp wrote:What does this even mean? What does finance have to do with law school admissions? Are you trying to say this is a good time to get into law?


There's confusion as to what should be represented by that graph and, generally, what the focus of this thread is.

Some people have been talking about the simple idea of going to law school, while the main topic of the thread is obviously a lot more objective and quantifiable: the number of applicants.

Then there's the speculation of what this means for current applicants, even though we don't have any statistical analysis to show what effects, if any, large variations in applicants has on the individual applicant. (I was just being optimistic earlier...or whatever...)

tldr: We're all just speculating (read also: doing our best) based on the limited info we have.

¯\(°_o)/¯

Edit: either way,
Image

lobolawyer
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Re: Total law school applicants down 16.7% from last year

Postby lobolawyer » Fri Jan 20, 2012 9:19 pm

I think the market is striking a natural balance. Weeding out some of the degree mills (hopefully).

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TatNurner
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Re: Total law school applicants down 16.7% from last year

Postby TatNurner » Fri Jan 20, 2012 9:40 pm

splitbrain wrote:
sunynp wrote:What does this even mean? What does finance have to do with law school admissions? Are you trying to say this is a good time to get into law?


There's confusion as to what should be represented by that graph and, generally, what the focus of this thread is.


FYI I was just talking about finance (i.e. responding to a side discussion). I dont think you can make a direct comparison between financial markets and changes in law school applications, even though some jargon/concepts from finance could be used to describe what seems to be going on with the number of people applying to law school.

Mr Anon, in his last post, seems to make a interesting point though, that this could perhaps be a false bottom in terms of things getting better, and that applications will shoot up again in coming cycles as people start thinking law school is a winning game again, before we come back and hit a real bottom, much lower than the one we are in right now.

Of course, this is all speculation, and there are a lot of mixed/messy analogies in there, but I hope you get what I mean

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Gail
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Re: Total law school applicants down 16.7% from last year

Postby Gail » Fri Jan 20, 2012 9:54 pm

MrAnon wrote:
--ImageRemoved--


We are entering the "return to normal" stage.



I don't think that the next 5 years will be nearly as bad as people think they will. The economy will improve at a decent clip in 2012 and will be even better in 2013.




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