How bad will it actually be?

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pacers3177
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How bad will it actually be?

Postby pacers3177 » Mon Nov 21, 2011 1:56 am

No I'm not talking about law school. We all know it sucks. I'm talking about the prospects coming from a lower T1 - TTTT with 80k + in loans and not top 10%. Basically the majority of law students.

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johansantana21
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Re: How bad will it actually be?

Postby johansantana21 » Mon Nov 21, 2011 1:58 am

Have fun in doc review.

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romothesavior
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Re: How bad will it actually be?

Postby romothesavior » Mon Nov 21, 2011 2:09 am

pacers3177 wrote:No I'm not talking about law school. We all know it sucks. I'm talking about the prospects coming from a lower T1 - TTTT with 80k + in loans and not top 10%. Basically the majority of law students.

It can vary. For a huge number of people, un/underemployment. For a small minority, biglaw. For others, small firms, government, etc. Some are headed to doc review. It is all over the map. And it is hard to throw out job prospect data for these schools because it is really so shoddy. But we can do some rough extrapolation based on info we do have.

Keep in mind, something like ~60% of all law grads get full-time, permanent, J.D.-required jobs. The vast majority of students at respectable T1 schools are going to get some kind of job fitting this description, so that's a big chunk of the 60% right there. So what about students from the lower T1-TTTT? I think it is fair to say that a substantial number will never work in a full-time, permanent, J.D.-required job. And for those that do, the overwhelming majority will be far below 100k, making it hard to pay off loans.

This is why it is so important to go to a good school to maximize job prospects, or at the very least, go to law school for as cheap as possible.

pacers3177
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Re: How bad will it actually be?

Postby pacers3177 » Mon Nov 21, 2011 2:22 am

romothesavior wrote:
pacers3177 wrote:No I'm not talking about law school. We all know it sucks. I'm talking about the prospects coming from a lower T1 - TTTT with 80k + in loans and not top 10%. Basically the majority of law students.

It can vary. For a huge number of people, un/underemployment. For a small minority, biglaw. For others, small firms, government, etc. Some are headed to doc review. It is all over the map. And it is hard to throw out job prospect data for these schools because it is really so shoddy. But we can do some rough extrapolation based on info we do have.

Keep in mind, something like ~60% of all law grads get full-time, permanent, J.D.-required jobs. The vast majority of students at respectable T1 schools are going to get some kind of job fitting this description, so that's a big chunk of the 60% right there. So what about students from the lower T1-TTTT? I think it is fair to say that a substantial number will never work in a full-time, permanent, J.D.-required job. And for those that do, the overwhelming majority will be far below 100k, making it hard to pay off loans.

This is why it is so important to go to a good school to maximize job prospects, or at the very least, go to law school for as cheap as possible.


And I'm assuming the market is going to keep getting worse too? Class of 2014 here

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romothesavior
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Re: How bad will it actually be?

Postby romothesavior » Mon Nov 21, 2011 2:29 am

pacers3177 wrote:
romothesavior wrote:
pacers3177 wrote:No I'm not talking about law school. We all know it sucks. I'm talking about the prospects coming from a lower T1 - TTTT with 80k + in loans and not top 10%. Basically the majority of law students.

It can vary. For a huge number of people, un/underemployment. For a small minority, biglaw. For others, small firms, government, etc. Some are headed to doc review. It is all over the map. And it is hard to throw out job prospect data for these schools because it is really so shoddy. But we can do some rough extrapolation based on info we do have.

Keep in mind, something like ~60% of all law grads get full-time, permanent, J.D.-required jobs. The vast majority of students at respectable T1 schools are going to get some kind of job fitting this description, so that's a big chunk of the 60% right there. So what about students from the lower T1-TTTT? I think it is fair to say that a substantial number will never work in a full-time, permanent, J.D.-required job. And for those that do, the overwhelming majority will be far below 100k, making it hard to pay off loans.

This is why it is so important to go to a good school to maximize job prospects, or at the very least, go to law school for as cheap as possible.


And I'm assuming the market is going to keep getting worse too? Class of 2014 here

Hard to say. May get a little better, but I think the assumption is that it will stay roughly the same.

I wouldn't concern yourself too much with what the market does in the next few years. You're already in school now? You should just bust your ass to get the best grades you can.

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NYC Law
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Re: How bad will it actually be?

Postby NYC Law » Mon Nov 21, 2011 2:30 am

pacers3177 wrote:
romothesavior wrote:
pacers3177 wrote:No I'm not talking about law school. We all know it sucks. I'm talking about the prospects coming from a lower T1 - TTTT with 80k + in loans and not top 10%. Basically the majority of law students.

It can vary. For a huge number of people, un/underemployment. For a small minority, biglaw. For others, small firms, government, etc. Some are headed to doc review. It is all over the map. And it is hard to throw out job prospect data for these schools because it is really so shoddy. But we can do some rough extrapolation based on info we do have.

Keep in mind, something like ~60% of all law grads get full-time, permanent, J.D.-required jobs. The vast majority of students at respectable T1 schools are going to get some kind of job fitting this description, so that's a big chunk of the 60% right there. So what about students from the lower T1-TTTT? I think it is fair to say that a substantial number will never work in a full-time, permanent, J.D.-required job. And for those that do, the overwhelming majority will be far below 100k, making it hard to pay off loans.

This is why it is so important to go to a good school to maximize job prospects, or at the very least, go to law school for as cheap as possible.


And I'm assuming the market is going to keep getting worse too? Class of 2014 here


Why would you make that assumption? It's shitty but the trajectory is still upward.

pacers3177
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Re: How bad will it actually be?

Postby pacers3177 » Mon Nov 21, 2011 2:32 am

NYC Law wrote:
pacers3177 wrote:
romothesavior wrote:
pacers3177 wrote:No I'm not talking about law school. We all know it sucks. I'm talking about the prospects coming from a lower T1 - TTTT with 80k + in loans and not top 10%. Basically the majority of law students.

It can vary. For a huge number of people, un/underemployment. For a small minority, biglaw. For others, small firms, government, etc. Some are headed to doc review. It is all over the map. And it is hard to throw out job prospect data for these schools because it is really so shoddy. But we can do some rough extrapolation based on info we do have.

Keep in mind, something like ~60% of all law grads get full-time, permanent, J.D.-required jobs. The vast majority of students at respectable T1 schools are going to get some kind of job fitting this description, so that's a big chunk of the 60% right there. So what about students from the lower T1-TTTT? I think it is fair to say that a substantial number will never work in a full-time, permanent, J.D.-required job. And for those that do, the overwhelming majority will be far below 100k, making it hard to pay off loans.

This is why it is so important to go to a good school to maximize job prospects, or at the very least, go to law school for as cheap as possible.


And I'm assuming the market is going to keep getting worse too? Class of 2014 here


Why would you make that assumption? It's shitty but the trajectory is still upward.


Outsourcing, economy looking stagnant, an already large over-saturation of lawyers with 100k more out there by the time I graduate.

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FryBreadPower
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Re: How bad will it actually be?

Postby FryBreadPower » Mon Nov 21, 2011 2:35 am

romothesavior wrote:
pacers3177 wrote:No I'm not talking about law school. We all know it sucks. I'm talking about the prospects coming from a lower T1 - TTTT with 80k + in loans and not top 10%. Basically the majority of law students.

It can vary. For a huge number of people, un/underemployment. For a small minority, biglaw. For others, small firms, government, etc. Some are headed to doc review. It is all over the map. And it is hard to throw out job prospect data for these schools because it is really so shoddy. But we can do some rough extrapolation based on info we do have.

Keep in mind, something like ~60% of all law grads get full-time, permanent, J.D.-required jobs. The vast majority of students at respectable T1 schools are going to get some kind of job fitting this description, so that's a big chunk of the 60% right there. So what about students from the lower T1-TTTT? I think it is fair to say that a substantial number will never work in a full-time, permanent, J.D.-required job. And for those that do, the overwhelming majority will be far below 100k, making it hard to pay off loans.

This is why it is so important to go to a good school to maximize job prospects, or at the very least, go to law school for as cheap as possible.


TITCR.

Just waiting for MTal to jump in here at any minute.

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romothesavior
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Re: How bad will it actually be?

Postby romothesavior » Mon Nov 21, 2011 2:36 am

OP, what school do you go to? What are you looking to do? What market are you targeting? Any connections or anything?

If I were you, I'd drop out after a year (maybe even after a semester) if I weren't in the top 20% in the class or so.

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NYC Law
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Re: How bad will it actually be?

Postby NYC Law » Mon Nov 21, 2011 2:37 am

pacers3177 wrote:Outsourcing, economy looking stagnant, an already large over-saturation of lawyers with 100k more out there by the time I graduate.


I mean, do you have any actual reasons based on data or are you just going to speculate?

Legal hiring has been improving, see NALP (too lazy to look it up for you).
Outsourcing has been the boogeyman for the past 10 years or so at least, so whatever. Doesn't appear to be the type of threat that will cause large scale changes in legal hiring.
Stagnation? lol
Image
And saturation, again, not a new problem. Apps are declining, it's fixing itself.

Not trying to be unrealistically optimistic, things are no doubt shitty. But like I said, actual data points towards improvement, at least for the next couple years.

pacers3177
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Re: How bad will it actually be?

Postby pacers3177 » Mon Nov 21, 2011 2:38 am

romothesavior wrote:OP, what school do you go to? What are you looking to do? What market are you targeting? Any connections or anything?

If I were you, I'd drop out after a year (maybe even after a semester) if I weren't in the top 20% in the class or so.


Without going into specifics, non-14 with lots of debt, NY school, looking to do prosecution.
Last edited by pacers3177 on Mon Nov 21, 2011 2:42 am, edited 1 time in total.

pacers3177
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Re: How bad will it actually be?

Postby pacers3177 » Mon Nov 21, 2011 2:40 am

NYC Law wrote:
pacers3177 wrote:Outsourcing, economy looking stagnant, an already large over-saturation of lawyers with 100k more out there by the time I graduate.


I mean, do you have any actual reasons based on data or are you just going to speculate?

Legal hiring has been improving, see NALP (too lazy to look it up for you).
Outsourcing has been the boogeyman for the past 10 years or so at least, so whatever. Doesn't appear to be the type of threat that will cause large scale changes in legal hiring.
Stagnation? lol
Image
And saturation, again, not a new problem. Apps are declining, it's fixing itself.

Not trying to be unrealistically optimistic, things are no doubt shitty. But like I said, actual data points towards improvement, at least for the next couple years.


But enrollment is at an all-time high. It doesn't matter if 45,001 people are applying or 100,000. 45,000 are still entering

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NYC Law
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Re: How bad will it actually be?

Postby NYC Law » Mon Nov 21, 2011 2:45 am

pacers3177 wrote:But enrollment is at an all-time high. It doesn't matter if 45,001 people are applying or 100,000. 45,000 are still entering


Enrollment data hasn't been released for this year, the first year that would be affected by the applicant drop. So I don't see where you're pulling this info from, other than your ass.

flcath
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Re: How bad will it actually be?

Postby flcath » Mon Nov 21, 2011 3:02 am

How in the hell has this thread filled up to almost a full page with substantive, reasonable, non-alarmist replies?

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romothesavior
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Re: How bad will it actually be?

Postby romothesavior » Mon Nov 21, 2011 3:29 am

NYC Law wrote:
pacers3177 wrote:But enrollment is at an all-time high. It doesn't matter if 45,001 people are applying or 100,000. 45,000 are still entering


Enrollment data hasn't been released for this year, the first year that would be affected by the applicant drop. So I don't see where you're pulling this info from, other than your ass.

First of all, take it down a notch, chief. We're just talkin' here, no need to get hostile. He wasn't pulling info from his ass. He wasn't even citing any sort of figures, he was just making a point (and a valid one). A drop in apps or in LSAT test-takers doesn't necessarily mean anything in terms of total student enrollment.

Second, even if student enrollment is declining, that doesn't mean the problem is fixing itself. I think the language you use is way too strong. This problem is not "fixing itself," and if anything, it will only continue to get worse. I see what you're getting at (fewer applicants = good, no doubt), but the market will remain incredibly oversaturated so long as there are 200+ schools graduating about 45k people a year.

Finally, what NALP data indicates that hiring is improving? I don't doubt that it has (ever so slightly) and I said as much ITT already, but I haven't seen anything anything from NALP indicating much in the way of improvement. Seems like the hemorrhaging has stopped and a few of the megafirms have increased SA class sizes, but most firms have held steady from last year to this year. If that's wrong, I'd like to read about it.

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romothesavior
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Re: How bad will it actually be?

Postby romothesavior » Mon Nov 21, 2011 3:35 am

pacers3177 wrote:
romothesavior wrote:OP, what school do you go to? What are you looking to do? What market are you targeting? Any connections or anything?

If I were you, I'd drop out after a year (maybe even after a semester) if I weren't in the top 20% in the class or so.


Without going into specifics, non-14 with lots of debt, NY school, looking to do prosecution.

Well, as I'm sure you know, prosecution is a slightly different beast from firm hiring. You really need to try to brand yourself as "the prosecutor guy" as early as you can. Too many law students treat local government/prosecution jobs like fallback gigs, so you want to try to beat them to the punch by showing interest early. Reach out to some local prosecutors and network with them, and get to know some professors who are familiar with the area. Grades are still important, but less so. What is really key is that you are able to sell your interest in it. You can also show interest by taking classes, seminars, and clinics that are geared towards criminal law. Try to make your resume scream criminal law work.

It's still an uphill battle and the competition is fierce, so be willing to cast a wide net in your job hunt. Obviously having a decent chunk of debt is not ideal, but 10-year IBR may bail you out if you are fortunate enough to get a jerb. Good luck.

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vanwinkle
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Re: How bad will it actually be?

Postby vanwinkle » Mon Nov 21, 2011 3:39 am

pacers3177 wrote:No I'm not talking about law school. We all know it sucks. I'm talking about the prospects coming from a lower T1 - TTTT with 80k + in loans and not top 10%. Basically the majority of law students.

Maybe you should ask your soap-making buddy. If you're gonna have multiple personalities, that one's at least fitting.

Tempbanned for alting.




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