EMZE wrote:To rule out option 1,class sizes won't shrink. Schools are built, staffed and resourced around a general class size. Less applicants is less cash. And yes some schools have incredible endowments, but I don't think that those top schools are going to have any shortage of applicants with perfect numbers.
If schools are based on a certain class size, how do you explain the fact that in the last cycle, Berkeley, Duke, WUStL, BU, Emory and a ton of others all shrank their class sizes substantially, i.e., >5%?
Maybe I am off on this, but I know that my undergraduate institution fluctuated just as significantly almost every year I was there, and it was not for shortage or increase of applicants. The year prior to me saw over 1400 matriculate, my year was 1313.
Though, after rereading my post, for the sake of clarity, I should have that that I don't believe schools will intentionally
shrink their classes. I do think its quite likely classes will be smaller because of less applicants, but not because the schools make it so. And, granted, that's absolutely their prerogative. I would just be curious to also know how many schools increased their class sizes last year.
And all told, at least based off of what I see on lsac -->http://www.lsac.org/LSACResources/Data/LSAC-volume-summary.asp
Unless I am misreading the chart (statistics not a strong suit), in the same year you are saying those schools shrunk their class sizes, the number of applicants increased ( I'm quite familiar with the whole LR causation/correlation/alt. cause flaw ).
I just don't believe top schools will have a dire need to do decrease class sizes for the sake of medians. 155,000 LSAT's administered, and since about 1% of students are at/above the median for HLS/CLS/YLS/etc., that leaves us with about 1500 students with scores at or over 172. Year prior, 1700 applicants with those numbers. And every one of them is shooting for the T14.
Yeah, I've gone off on a tangent. Unless someone has a primary source in the adcomms though, there won't be a certain answer. For me, I continue to think that the size of the applicant pool will not be what affects class sizes in the best schools. There are plenty of other reasons.