Effects of Smaller App. Pool

(Applications Advice, Letters of Recommendation . . . )
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Hawkeye Pierce
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Re: Effects of Smaller App. Pool

Postby Hawkeye Pierce » Wed Nov 02, 2011 2:51 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:
Hawkeye Pierce wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:
Hawkeye Pierce wrote:TBF, most schools don't care about softs very much in the first place so I don't find that to be very compelling.


Look at all of the people waitlisted with an LSAT score right at the median. The better the school, the more likely this is to be the case. HTH.


Right, so we can generalize and say that borderline candidates will get some help. But there's no way in hell we can say that they'll care less about softs. They already don't care about them. They'll just relax the numbers requirements. HTH


But this won't necessarily lead to reduced medians. Schools will let in a few more borderline candidates who would have been rejected/waitlisted in the past (because of softs or whatever else), reduce class sizes by 5-10%, and then finally start lowering medians when other options have been exhausted.


Correct. But, I'm not arguing that medians will necessarily drop.

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: Effects of Smaller App. Pool

Postby Tiago Splitter » Wed Nov 02, 2011 2:55 pm

Hawkeye Pierce wrote:Correct. But, I'm not arguing that medians will necessarily drop.


I suppose I was using "softs" to mean everything other than GPA and LSAT. There has to be some reason why borderline candidates sometimes get in and sometimes don't. This could be anything from an app submitted very late to an app with multiple typos. The people submitting late and sloppy applications will probably have more success than in the past.

iamrobk
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Re: Effects of Smaller App. Pool

Postby iamrobk » Wed Nov 02, 2011 2:57 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:
Hawkeye Pierce wrote:Correct. But, I'm not arguing that medians will necessarily drop.


I suppose I was using "softs" to mean everything other than GPA and LSAT. There has to be some reason why borderline candidates sometimes get in and sometimes don't. This could be anything from an app submitted very late to an app with multiple typos. The people submitting late and sloppy applications will probably have more success than in the past.

Definitely think this will be the case. But I can see the medians at a few (2-3) T14's dropping just because they may not plan correctly for this.

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Hawkeye Pierce
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Re: Effects of Smaller App. Pool

Postby Hawkeye Pierce » Wed Nov 02, 2011 2:57 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:
Hawkeye Pierce wrote:Correct. But, I'm not arguing that medians will necessarily drop.


I suppose I was using "softs" to mean everything other than GPA and LSAT. There has to be some reason why borderline candidates sometimes get in and sometimes don't. This could be anything from an app submitted very late to an app with multiple typos. The people submitting late and sloppy applications will probably have more success than in the past.


Oooh, okay. We were just using different definitions then. I can get on board with your claim then.

freestallion
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Re: Effects of Smaller App. Pool

Postby freestallion » Wed Nov 02, 2011 3:03 pm

Yeah, I was thinking more of 'soft' factors as everything other than LSAT/GPA. This could include actual softs, but also timing of application submission, quality of PS, whether the person wrote a extra "WHY" essay, whether the applicant has enough reccs from professors, whether the applicant followed all directions exactly, etc...

advocate1
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Re: Effects of Smaller App. Pool

Postby advocate1 » Wed Nov 02, 2011 4:12 pm

Do you think state schools that are required to take a percentage of their incoming class from in-state will be affected any differently than other schools?

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medialoop
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Re: Effects of Smaller App. Pool

Postby medialoop » Thu Nov 03, 2011 1:07 pm

freestallion wrote:Yeah, I was thinking more of 'soft' factors as everything other than LSAT/GPA. This could include actual softs, but also timing of application submission, quality of PS, whether the person wrote a extra "WHY" essay, whether the applicant has enough reccs from professors, whether the applicant followed all directions exactly, etc...


Same here. So for example, maybe in previous years the top schools would have waitlisted or rejected the person with the 175 who wrote a really obnoxious/braggy/in-bad-taste essay, but that might be forgiven a bit more this year (which isn't necessarily a good thing...). Or they could start caring less about WE, not be as forgiving (numbers-wise) for URMs, or any number of other things.

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paul34
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Re: Effects of Smaller App. Pool

Postby paul34 » Thu Nov 03, 2011 6:50 pm

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Last edited by paul34 on Wed Apr 11, 2012 8:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

jnordlander
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Re: Effects of Smaller App. Pool

Postby jnordlander » Thu Nov 03, 2011 7:04 pm

So hypothetically a 173 is better this year than others? Assuming applications continue to drop?

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Tim0thy222
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Re: Effects of Smaller App. Pool

Postby Tim0thy222 » Thu Nov 03, 2011 8:02 pm

ITT: Everyone (including myself) tries to convince themselves that there is a smaller applicant pool and that therefore they will outperform people from past cycles with the same numbers.

I hope we're right :mrgreen:

iamrobk
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Re: Effects of Smaller App. Pool

Postby iamrobk » Thu Nov 03, 2011 8:10 pm

Tim0thy222 wrote:ITT: Everyone (including myself) tries to convince themselves that there is a smaller applicant pool and that therefore they will outperform people from past cycles with the same numbers.

I hope we're right :mrgreen:

Haha I mean I agree, but there is some evidence to back it up (the number of June LSAT's being down so much, some guy at UVA just got accepted off the waitlist already, etc.)

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Tim0thy222
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Re: Effects of Smaller App. Pool

Postby Tim0thy222 » Fri Nov 04, 2011 3:04 am

iamrobk wrote:
Tim0thy222 wrote:ITT: Everyone (including myself) tries to convince themselves that there is a smaller applicant pool and that therefore they will outperform people from past cycles with the same numbers.

I hope we're right :mrgreen:

Haha I mean I agree, but there is some evidence to back it up (the number of June LSAT's being down so much, some guy at UVA just got accepted off the waitlist already, etc.)


I hadn't heard about this guy getting accepted of the waitlist at UVA already... that's crazy. So you think they waitlisted him, then realized that they had fewer qualified applicants than this time last year and accepted him?

Curious1
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Re: Effects of Smaller App. Pool

Postby Curious1 » Fri Nov 04, 2011 3:07 am

iamrobk wrote:
Tim0thy222 wrote:ITT: Everyone (including myself) tries to convince themselves that there is a smaller applicant pool and that therefore they will outperform people from past cycles with the same numbers.

I hope we're right :mrgreen:

Haha I mean I agree, but there is some evidence to back it up (the number of June LSAT's being down so much, some guy at UVA just got accepted off the waitlist already, etc.)



The hls interview data seems to bear this out. They're definitely taking some people that would normally be considered "borderline" (no offense to anyone!) in the first wave (which is usually reserved for auto admits)

EMZE
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Re: Effects of Smaller App. Pool

Postby EMZE » Fri Nov 04, 2011 4:41 am

To rule out option 1,class sizes won't shrink. Schools are built, staffed and resourced around a general class size. Less applicants is less cash. And yes some schools have incredible endowments, but I don't think that those top schools are going to have any shortage of applicants with perfect numbers.

Personally I kind of think some of the t-14 have already tipped their hand in how their applications cycles will run. It seems like schools are really trying to secure their high numbered applicants early, since foreseeably there will be fewer of them in total. Once they have their medians largely built, that's when I think numbers below median will get their chance. UVA and HLS have reached out to well qualified applicants in terms of their numbers, and apparently other schools have also begun the process a week or 2 earlier than last. I really think that's the plan, to make a concerted effort to stabilize their medians early.

So while it sucks for guys like me who aren't cruising on high numbers, I hypothesize that people >170 and >3.9 will get a lot of love early. Not that that is especially different than any other year, just that the competition is ramped up.

Just my 2 cents

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Robespierre
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Re: Effects of Smaller App. Pool

Postby Robespierre » Fri Nov 04, 2011 9:12 am

EMZE wrote:To rule out option 1,class sizes won't shrink. Schools are built, staffed and resourced around a general class size. Less applicants is less cash. And yes some schools have incredible endowments, but I don't think that those top schools are going to have any shortage of applicants with perfect numbers.


If schools are based on a certain class size, how do you explain the fact that in the last cycle, Berkeley, Duke, WUStL, BU, Emory and a ton of others all shrank their class sizes substantially, i.e., >5%?

EMZE
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Re: Effects of Smaller App. Pool

Postby EMZE » Fri Nov 04, 2011 9:37 am

Robespierre wrote:
EMZE wrote:To rule out option 1,class sizes won't shrink. Schools are built, staffed and resourced around a general class size. Less applicants is less cash. And yes some schools have incredible endowments, but I don't think that those top schools are going to have any shortage of applicants with perfect numbers.


If schools are based on a certain class size, how do you explain the fact that in the last cycle, Berkeley, Duke, WUStL, BU, Emory and a ton of others all shrank their class sizes substantially, i.e., >5%?


Maybe I am off on this, but I know that my undergraduate institution fluctuated just as significantly almost every year I was there, and it was not for shortage or increase of applicants. The year prior to me saw over 1400 matriculate, my year was 1313.

Though, after rereading my post, for the sake of clarity, I should have that that I don't believe schools will intentionally shrink their classes. I do think its quite likely classes will be smaller because of less applicants, but not because the schools make it so. And, granted, that's absolutely their prerogative. I would just be curious to also know how many schools increased their class sizes last year.

And all told, at least based off of what I see on lsac -->http://www.lsac.org/LSACResources/Data/LSAC-volume-summary.asp

Unless I am misreading the chart (statistics not a strong suit), in the same year you are saying those schools shrunk their class sizes, the number of applicants increased ( I'm quite familiar with the whole LR causation/correlation/alt. cause flaw ).

I just don't believe top schools will have a dire need to do decrease class sizes for the sake of medians. 155,000 LSAT's administered, and since about 1% of students are at/above the median for HLS/CLS/YLS/etc., that leaves us with about 1500 students with scores at or over 172. Year prior, 1700 applicants with those numbers. And every one of them is shooting for the T14.

Yeah, I've gone off on a tangent. Unless someone has a primary source in the adcomms though, there won't be a certain answer. For me, I continue to think that the size of the applicant pool will not be what affects class sizes in the best schools. There are plenty of other reasons.

iamrobk
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Re: Effects of Smaller App. Pool

Postby iamrobk » Fri Nov 04, 2011 12:22 pm

Tim0thy222 wrote:
iamrobk wrote:
Tim0thy222 wrote:ITT: Everyone (including myself) tries to convince themselves that there is a smaller applicant pool and that therefore they will outperform people from past cycles with the same numbers.

I hope we're right :mrgreen:

Haha I mean I agree, but there is some evidence to back it up (the number of June LSAT's being down so much, some guy at UVA just got accepted off the waitlist already, etc.)


I hadn't heard about this guy getting accepted of the waitlist at UVA already... that's crazy. So you think they waitlisted him, then realized that they had fewer qualified applicants than this time last year and accepted him?

Yeah, especially since (apparently) UVA takes a lot of its class from ED, so they would probably know. But it's weird either way.




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