Splitter Chances Clarification

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VictoryGin
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Splitter Chances Clarification

Postby VictoryGin » Sun Oct 30, 2011 6:36 pm

Hey all,

Question for those who know more about this than I do:

Lets assume that someone is a pretty typical applicant softs wise (had a decent internship, a few ECs) and is non-URM. Just an Average Joe. His PS is decent, nothing that would hurt, but nothing crazy, and his LORs are also as good as anybody else's.

For X law school, his GPA is exactly on the 25th percentile, but his LSAT is exactly on the 75th percentile.

Knowing that most schools' formulas weigh the LSAT ~2.5 times more than GPA, wouldn't his overall numbers "package," if you will (as in a mathmatical combination of GPA and LSAT), be above the median and so therefore making him a likely accepted applicant (given these average softs)?

I see a lot of people chancing splitters like this fairly unconfidently (basing off numbers alone). Why is this? I would think this student has a more than likely shot since LSAT tends to be weighted more.

Any insight?

bdubs
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Re: Splitter Chances Clarification

Postby bdubs » Sun Oct 30, 2011 6:41 pm

Depends on the school, but you'd be a pretty decent bet at most schools with a 25/75 GPA/LSAT split.

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: Splitter Chances Clarification

Postby Tiago Splitter » Sun Oct 30, 2011 6:43 pm

The goal of the school is to have the highest median LSAT/GPA combo. The average is meaningless. Thus, for a school with a 170 LSAT median the guy with a 171 is very similar to the gal with the 175. The higher LSAT does help a bit, and the schools like to show-off strong 25th/75th ranges, but the median is what's critically important for their ranking.

Another issue is GPA floors. Columbia, for example, isn't letting a white dude in with a 2.8/180 combo even if his index is higher than someone with a 3.5/174.

bdubs
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Re: Splitter Chances Clarification

Postby bdubs » Sun Oct 30, 2011 6:50 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:The goal of the school is to have the highest median LSAT/GPA combo. The average is meaningless. Thus, for a school with a 170 LSAT median the guy with a 171 is very similar to the gal with the 175. The higher LSAT does help a bit, and the schools like to show-off strong 25th/75th ranges, but the median is what's critically important for their ranking.

Another issue is GPA floors. Columbia, for example, isn't letting a white dude in with a 2.8/180 combo even if his index is higher than someone with a 3.5/174.


This is what would make sense, but it doesn't seem to be born out by the results on LSN. Schools will routinely differentiate between applicants above their 75th percentiles. The GPA point is right, but if OP is at the 25th percentile he is clearly not below any floor.

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: Splitter Chances Clarification

Postby Tiago Splitter » Sun Oct 30, 2011 7:02 pm

bdubs wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:The goal of the school is to have the highest median LSAT/GPA combo. The average is meaningless. Thus, for a school with a 170 LSAT median the guy with a 171 is very similar to the gal with the 175. The higher LSAT does help a bit, and the schools like to show-off strong 25th/75th ranges, but the median is what's critically important for their ranking.

Another issue is GPA floors. Columbia, for example, isn't letting a white dude in with a 2.8/180 combo even if his index is higher than someone with a 3.5/174.


This is what would make sense, but it doesn't seem to be born out by the results on LSN. Schools will routinely differentiate between applicants above their 75th percentiles. The GPA point is right, but if OP is at the 25th percentile he is clearly not below any floor.


Depends on the school I suppose. NYU has a GPA floor around 3.4 and lets in most people at or above the floor with a 172 or higher. Columbia, on the other hand, does seem to give extra credit for higher scores and seems to stop waitlisting so many people once they reach the 75th percentile LSAT at 175.

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zdamico
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Re: Splitter Chances Clarification

Postby zdamico » Sun Oct 30, 2011 7:18 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:
bdubs wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:The goal of the school is to have the highest median LSAT/GPA combo. The average is meaningless. Thus, for a school with a 170 LSAT median the guy with a 171 is very similar to the gal with the 175. The higher LSAT does help a bit, and the schools like to show-off strong 25th/75th ranges, but the median is what's critically important for their ranking.

Another issue is GPA floors. Columbia, for example, isn't letting a white dude in with a 2.8/180 combo even if his index is higher than someone with a 3.5/174.


This is what would make sense, but it doesn't seem to be born out by the results on LSN. Schools will routinely differentiate between applicants above their 75th percentiles. The GPA point is right, but if OP is at the 25th percentile he is clearly not below any floor.


Depends on the school I suppose. NYU has a GPA floor around 3.4 and lets in most people at or above the floor with a 172 or higher. Columbia, on the other hand, does seem to give extra credit for higher scores and seems to stop waitlisting so many people once they reach the 75th percentile LSAT at 175.


What about Harvard? What would a someone with exactly 75th% LSAT and 25th% GPA be looking at?

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citykitty
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Re: Splitter Chances Clarification

Postby citykitty » Sun Oct 30, 2011 7:21 pm

Splitter cycles are just unpredictable. You never know when a school will see something in a PS and bite.

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: Splitter Chances Clarification

Postby Tiago Splitter » Sun Oct 30, 2011 7:26 pm

zdamico wrote:
What about Harvard? What would a someone with exactly 75th% LSAT and 25th% GPA be looking at?


3.78/176 based on last year's numbers. Chances are decent but there are some waitlists in that area. Harvard is obviously selective enough to ask for more than just numbers, even at that level.

http://harvard.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats/1011/

citykitty wrote:Splitter cycles are just unpredictable. You never know when a school will see something in a PS and bite.


IBELIKEDANG :wink:

VictoryGin
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Re: Splitter Chances Clarification

Postby VictoryGin » Sun Oct 30, 2011 7:51 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:
bdubs wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:The goal of the school is to have the highest median LSAT/GPA combo. The average is meaningless. Thus, for a school with a 170 LSAT median the guy with a 171 is very similar to the gal with the 175. The higher LSAT does help a bit, and the schools like to show-off strong 25th/75th ranges, but the median is what's critically important for their ranking.

Another issue is GPA floors. Columbia, for example, isn't letting a white dude in with a 2.8/180 combo even if his index is higher than someone with a 3.5/174.


This is what would make sense, but it doesn't seem to be born out by the results on LSN. Schools will routinely differentiate between applicants above their 75th percentiles. The GPA point is right, but if OP is at the 25th percentile he is clearly not below any floor.


Depends on the school I suppose. NYU has a GPA floor around 3.4 and lets in most people at or above the floor with a 172 or higher. Columbia, on the other hand, does seem to give extra credit for higher scores and seems to stop waitlisting so many people once they reach the 75th percentile LSAT at 175.



Thanks for the insightful replies, Tiago. How do we get a sense for the GPA floors? Certainly they aren't published.

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citykitty
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Re: Splitter Chances Clarification

Postby citykitty » Sun Oct 30, 2011 8:10 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:
zdamico wrote:
What about Harvard? What would a someone with exactly 75th% LSAT and 25th% GPA be looking at?


3.78/176 based on last year's numbers. Chances are decent but there are some waitlists in that area. Harvard is obviously selective enough to ask for more than just numbers, even at that level.

http://harvard.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats/1011/

citykitty wrote:Splitter cycles are just unpredictable. You never know when a school will see something in a PS and bite.


IBELIKEDANG :wink:



I am a prime example of this.

To get a feel for GPA floors look at LSN. You'll see a whole lot of red around the floor. Like I think UT is around a 3.4, but some schools are more forgiving. NU is the only t14 school that regularly dips below 3.0 IIRC.

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Hopefully2012
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Re: Splitter Chances Clarification

Postby Hopefully2012 » Fri Nov 11, 2011 12:52 pm

tjtorrence wrote:Thanks for the insightful replies, Tiago. How do we get a sense for the GPA floors? Certainly they aren't published.

Sorry for answering on behalf of Tiago but Samara posted a really nice guide for splitters that shows GPA floors for the schools that have them (and a lot of other useful info for splitters) viewtopic.php?f=22&t=162680. HTH




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