Warning to all 0L's

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scammedhard
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby scammedhard » Mon Oct 24, 2011 5:56 pm

Kirk wrote:
romothesavior wrote:What region are you in? I would bet my left nut that your area is oversaturated and its legal market is in the shitter.

Anyone else notice that there is a real tendency for those with thousands of posts to be extremely negative?

For every 5,000 posts, it must, at the very least, take 3 minutes (read the topic, make the post, etc.), meaning that 5,000 posts is equal to 11 solid (24/7) days writing on TLS. Which is fine; knock your lights out, but Y always so negative?

Number of posts also indicates length of time since a user became a poster on TLS. An older poster like romothesavior is not new to law school and its issues: he's a 2L or 3L at a great university. Why, then, would you not listen to what he has to share with you?
Also, the issue is not whether one is negative or positive while posting on TLS, but whether such a negativity or positivity is warranted by events in the real world. I would imagine romothesavior's negativity stems from a difficult labor market, and considering he's attending a top program and paying top dollars for it, then his negativity seems totally adequate. Again, perhaps you should listen to what he has to share with you.

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Grizz
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby Grizz » Mon Oct 24, 2011 6:07 pm

Kirk wrote:
romothesavior wrote:What region are you in? I would bet my left nut that your area is oversaturated and its legal market is in the shitter.

Anyone else notice that there is a real tendency for those with thousands of posts to be extremely negative?

For every 5,000 posts, it must, at the very least, take 3 minutes (read the topic, make the post, etc.), meaning that 5,000 posts is equal to 11 solid (24/7) days writing on TLS. Which is fine; knock your lights out, but Y always so negative?

Because over my 12k poasts I have decided to go to lawl school, finished 1L, then went out into the job market. And looked for a job. Just now. That's why I'm so negative. How's your extra chromosome treating you?

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JCougar
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby JCougar » Mon Oct 24, 2011 6:28 pm

Aberzombie1892 wrote:The only viable long term solution to this problem is if the federal government got out of the business of guaranteeing student loans. All other relevant problems will slowly fix themselves (glut of X people with a given major/degree, tuition, student loan debt, etc.).


Don't guaruntee them and make them dischargeable in bankrupcy. It's that simple. Lenders won't give money to you if your school can't place you. Who in God's name would lend money to a TTT student if they were actually on the hook if that student defaulted?

No lender worth their salt would even give money to T1 students at the rate tuition is going. I wonder how many people taking out $250K to go to Berkeley are going to end up defaulting. Not most, but even if its only a few, that's a shitload of money to write off if you're a lender. And if a lender won't give you money, the school will either have to lower tuition or shut its doors.

With all this student loan debt, I really wonder how its going to affect the housing market. How many people will be able to afford a mortgage in the next 10 years with all this catastrophic debt?

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JCougar
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby JCougar » Mon Oct 24, 2011 6:45 pm

Another thing that's interesting...how law students on an internet chat forum, in between their bickering, can figure out how to solve a monumental problem that neither the ABA nor Congress can act upon. College tuition (and especially law school tuition) has been careening out of control for over a decade. It's stunning the lack of leadership at the ABA and in Congress. It's also darkly ironic that law schools and law firms are all happy to tell you they want "leadership" on your resume -- yet the entire industry is a leadership vacuum. Aside from a few isolated professors sporadically posting a critical blog post or two, there's basically not a single person in the entire industry that's standing up and saying: "look, this is obviously a scam, and schools are screwing law students...even the ones that succeed."

The solution has to be regulatory, however. The fist school to charge honest tuition and be honest about their employment prospects is going to take a dive due to the effect of the US News Rankings on applicants' decisions. It's like a modified prisoner's dilemma...where it only works out if everyone makes a small sacrifice for the collective good, but if one person acts selfishly, everyone else goes to hell (not sure if there is a technical term for this type of market irregularity). So the answer has to be either Congress cutting off the student loan spigot, or the ABA stepping in and either collecting accurate employment statistics and sending them out to every applicant complete with a proposed loan repayment plan that hashes out exactly what your monthly payment would be, or putting some sort of limits on tuition.

But this is the field of law, where image is more important than substance. So, of course, there's no real leaders...only people who pretend to be to fluff up their resume.

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prezidentv8
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby prezidentv8 » Mon Oct 24, 2011 7:18 pm

JCougar wrote:But this is the field of law, where image is more important than substance. So, of course, there's no real leaders...only people who pretend to be to fluff up their resume.


Loved this.

scammedhard
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby scammedhard » Mon Oct 24, 2011 7:55 pm

prezidentv8 wrote:
JCougar wrote:But this is the field of law, where image is more important than substance. So, of course, there's no real leaders...only people who pretend to be to fluff up their resume.


Loved this.

I liked that line too.

There has been some leadership... from Law School Transparency. Those kids and the Scambloggers were the only ones in the legal profession that stood up and clamored for change. LST came up with specific proposals, pushed for them, and got some of them to be approved.

It's too bad, though, that the very serious people with real power are the ones that are unwilling to act.

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JCougar
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby JCougar » Mon Oct 24, 2011 8:28 pm

scammedhard wrote:
prezidentv8 wrote:
JCougar wrote:But this is the field of law, where image is more important than substance. So, of course, there's no real leaders...only people who pretend to be to fluff up their resume.


Loved this.

I liked that line too.

There has been some leadership... from Law School Transparency. Those kids and the Scambloggers were the only ones in the legal profession that stood up and clamored for change. LST came up with specific proposals, pushed for them, and got some of them to be approved.

It's too bad, though, that the very serious people with real power are the ones that are unwilling to act.


Right. Funny how a grassroots new student organization has done more regulating than the ABA. Probably on 1/100th of the budget, too.

I wonder what the ABA leaders salaries are. Do they actually do anything?

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NYC Law
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby NYC Law » Wed Oct 26, 2011 11:45 am

romothesavior wrote:
Renne Walker wrote:Given this economy, how red is the employment warning light for T-14 students ranked in the top 50% of their class? I would guess the legal profession can avail themselves of 3,500 annual positions paying in the +$8K [monthly] range. Right/Wrong?

PS. I wish there was T-14 data. I doubt if it readily exists given that a number of schools have not posted employment info beyond 2007 (some 2009).

I never understand a thing you say.

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paul34
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby paul34 » Wed Oct 26, 2011 1:59 pm

JCougar wrote:Another thing that's interesting...how law students on an internet chat forum, in between their bickering, can figure out how to solve a monumental problem that neither the ABA nor Congress can act upon. College tuition (and especially law school tuition) has been careening out of control for over a decade. It's stunning the lack of leadership at the ABA and in Congress. It's also darkly ironic that law schools and law firms are all happy to tell you they want "leadership" on your resume -- yet the entire industry is a leadership vacuum. Aside from a few isolated professors sporadically posting a critical blog post or two, there's basically not a single person in the entire industry that's standing up and saying: "look, this is obviously a scam, and schools are screwing law students...even the ones that succeed."

The solution has to be regulatory, however. The fist school to charge honest tuition and be honest about their employment prospects is going to take a dive due to the effect of the US News Rankings on applicants' decisions. It's like a modified prisoner's dilemma...where it only works out if everyone makes a small sacrifice for the collective good, but if one person acts selfishly, everyone else goes to hell (not sure if there is a technical term for this type of market irregularity). So the answer has to be either Congress cutting off the student loan spigot, or the ABA stepping in and either collecting accurate employment statistics and sending them out to every applicant complete with a proposed loan repayment plan that hashes out exactly what your monthly payment would be, or putting some sort of limits on tuition.

But this is the field of law, where image is more important than substance. So, of course, there's no real leaders...only people who pretend to be to fluff up their resume.


There are leaders, but they lead the entire industry (because that is what it is - an industry) to their own, and their friends', advantage.

Politicians love student aid because it gets them lots of brownie points with voters. Oh, thanks Mr. Senator for sending johnny to college!

The ABA loves it because in some sense, they are a cartel. The manipulate the market through ABA accreditation. The lack of transparency and honesty mean that all of their law schools, from T to TTTT get, on average, more than $40k per year per student. Since it comes through the form of a loan, they don't care whether you can actually afford it. They will only endorse government programs because without them, their income stream would dry up really quickly, and they'd suddenly have to become responsible and not just be JD factories. The student loan scam means that tuition will go up, ad infinitum, with no real increase in education value to go along with the price increase. We see this same thing happening in all other areas of education at universities. I know my undergrad went from about 30k students when I started, to over 50k students. During this time, they built all manner of facilities, and expanded greatly. It is a resort now, with a shiny new giant stadium as well. IT makes the freshmen happy, and really helps to recruit new students. But the problem is, does anyone remember that they're students? There to get some kind of education? My tuition and other fees kept going up year after year, even though the quality of my education did not increase whatsoever.

Even something as simple as upgrading the computers in the computer lab had to be done by way of a corporate sponsor - the university doesn't have the money to spend on educational-related things. So backwards.

On the other hand, I wonder if the ABA might eventually go the way of the AMA (artificially restricting class sizes at law schools in order to create a perpetual shortage of new graduates versus available MD jobs). But given the way the law school market has already set up, I doubt it. Lots of ABA member schools would really complain that their income stream has dried up.

One alternative is deregulating the legal industry. That is, no more bar exam or law school required. However, this could have severe consequences as well... so I'm not sure what the real solution is (that is, a solution that we can actually do). The chips are against us.

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JCougar
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby JCougar » Wed Oct 26, 2011 3:08 pm

paul34 wrote:One alternative is deregulating the legal industry. That is, no more bar exam or law school required. However, this could have severe consequences as well... so I'm not sure what the real solution is (that is, a solution that we can actually do). The chips are against us.


I think the solution is more regulation, not less. Markets with little regulation and enforcement only reward the liars and the cheaters. That's exactly why we have the phony job statistics we have today (and also phony class medians).

But making school loans dischargeable in bankruptcy again would make a significant impact. Lenders simply wouldn't take the risk of lending a student $250K to go to law school. This would reward law schools that lowered their tuition. It's a fast and easy first step. Right now, there is economic disincentive to lower tuition, since US News rewards schools who pay for star faculty and spend a bunch of money per student.

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prezidentv8
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby prezidentv8 » Wed Oct 26, 2011 5:01 pm

paul34 wrote:They manipulate the market through ABA accreditation.


Not sure that this is what you meant.

bartleby
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby bartleby » Wed Oct 26, 2011 10:45 pm

LAWSCHOOLREALITY wrote:
bartleby wrote:I'm on near-full scholarship and I sorta regret LS right now. I'm an idiot so I took out a good amount of loans anyway to live nicely (2 months of rent > my entire first year tuition; 12 months rent > my entire ls tuition). But law school is hard. And competitive. People are lame. Gossip a lot. A lot of haters.

I went to ls because grad school just isn't feasible. It's like 100x worse than law school. Grad school is funded for like 2 people out of a pool of 100, and you better hope James Franco isn't one of the 100. Career prospects are like a zillion times worse - definitely worse than a NYLS grad.


Drop out


I might if I'm not top 10%. 90% chance I'll drop out, then..

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romothesavior
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby romothesavior » Thu Oct 27, 2011 11:04 am

bartleby wrote:
LAWSCHOOLREALITY wrote:
bartleby wrote:I'm on near-full scholarship and I sorta regret LS right now. I'm an idiot so I took out a good amount of loans anyway to live nicely (2 months of rent > my entire first year tuition; 12 months rent > my entire ls tuition). But law school is hard. And competitive. People are lame. Gossip a lot. A lot of haters.

I went to ls because grad school just isn't feasible. It's like 100x worse than law school. Grad school is funded for like 2 people out of a pool of 100, and you better hope James Franco isn't one of the 100. Career prospects are like a zillion times worse - definitely worse than a NYLS grad.


Drop out


I might if I'm not top 10%. 90% chance I'll drop out, then..

Are you a 1L?

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paul34
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby paul34 » Thu Oct 27, 2011 2:07 pm

prezidentv8 wrote:
paul34 wrote:They manipulate the market through ABA accreditation.


Not sure that this is what you meant.


Perhaps what I meant wasn't as strong as is implied by my previous statement. However, the ABA does wield considerable power over the law school market by way of accreditation. Law schools have to abide by whatever rules the ABA sets. Unaccredited law schools will never be on the same level as accredited law schools (not saying that is necessarily a bad thing).

Dblock20165
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby Dblock20165 » Thu Oct 27, 2011 2:56 pm

Real Madrid wrote:Sorry your career didn't pan out the way you wanted it to, but you're preaching to the choir here, kiddo. Don't tell us what we should and shouldn't do. We don't come to where you work and knock the sample corndog out of your hand.


Oh my god that shit is funny. Yeah why do I hear everyone crying about the legal field right now? Last I heard it was a recession, and it's hard to find jobs in any field. 20 years from now, I'd rather be an attorney than a manager at Best Buy wondering why I didn't go to law school.

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Bronte
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby Bronte » Thu Oct 27, 2011 3:07 pm

Dblock20165 wrote:
Real Madrid wrote:Sorry your career didn't pan out the way you wanted it to, but you're preaching to the choir here, kiddo. Don't tell us what we should and shouldn't do. We don't come to where you work and knock the sample corndog out of your hand.


Oh my god that shit is funny. Yeah why do I hear everyone crying about the legal field right now? Last I heard it was a recession, and it's hard to find jobs in any field. 20 years from now, I'd rather be an attorney than a manager at Best Buy wondering why I didn't go to law school.


Because it costs well over $200,000 to enter the legal field.

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minnbills
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby minnbills » Thu Oct 27, 2011 3:08 pm

Bronte wrote:
Dblock20165 wrote:
Real Madrid wrote:Sorry your career didn't pan out the way you wanted it to, but you're preaching to the choir here, kiddo. Don't tell us what we should and shouldn't do. We don't come to where you work and knock the sample corndog out of your hand.


Oh my god that shit is funny. Yeah why do I hear everyone crying about the legal field right now? Last I heard it was a recession, and it's hard to find jobs in any field. 20 years from now, I'd rather be an attorney than a manager at Best Buy wondering why I didn't go to law school.


Because it costs well over $200,000 to enter the legal field.


Assuming you pay sticker to a really expensive school...

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Bronte
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby Bronte » Thu Oct 27, 2011 3:18 pm

minnbills wrote:
Bronte wrote:
Dblock20165 wrote:
Real Madrid wrote:Sorry your career didn't pan out the way you wanted it to, but you're preaching to the choir here, kiddo. Don't tell us what we should and shouldn't do. We don't come to where you work and knock the sample corndog out of your hand.


Oh my god that shit is funny. Yeah why do I hear everyone crying about the legal field right now? Last I heard it was a recession, and it's hard to find jobs in any field. 20 years from now, I'd rather be an attorney than a manager at Best Buy wondering why I didn't go to law school.


Because it costs well over $200,000 to enter the legal field.


Assuming you pay sticker to a really expensive school...


It's expensive. You've got opportunity costs of at least $60,000, probably closer to $100,000. The average cost is probably around $200,000.

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JCougar
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby JCougar » Thu Oct 27, 2011 3:20 pm

minnbills wrote:
Bronte wrote:
Dblock20165 wrote:
Real Madrid wrote:Sorry your career didn't pan out the way you wanted it to, but you're preaching to the choir here, kiddo. Don't tell us what we should and shouldn't do. We don't come to where you work and knock the sample corndog out of your hand.


Oh my god that shit is funny. Yeah why do I hear everyone crying about the legal field right now? Last I heard it was a recession, and it's hard to find jobs in any field. 20 years from now, I'd rather be an attorney than a manager at Best Buy wondering why I didn't go to law school.


Because it costs well over $200,000 to enter the legal field.


Assuming you pay sticker to a really expensive school...


Once you factor in cost of living, inevitable tuition increases by your third year, accruing interest, bar exam prep courses, cost of living loans while studying for the bar, etc., you'll be lucky to come in under $200K at any school if you're paying sticker.

Kolya
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby Kolya » Thu Oct 27, 2011 3:47 pm

You shouldn't count living expenses; if you don't attend law school you still need food and shelter. True cost estimation is tuition + opportunity cost (lost income from not working). For people with non-worthless undergrad majors, the total is easily over 300k.

Remember that for 90% of associates, biglaw is a temporary gig, even if you are fortunate enough to make it into Biglaw. If we give an associate an expected 5-year term (this is probably generous) then they must pay back 60K+amortization each year out of their 160k paycheck, all while living in expensive areas working 70 hours a week, to recoup their losses. Then they inevitably leave biglaw and take a huge pay cut, often down to levels inferior to what they would be earning by that point in alternative professions.

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JCougar
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby JCougar » Thu Oct 27, 2011 4:22 pm

Dblock20165 wrote:
Real Madrid wrote:Sorry your career didn't pan out the way you wanted it to, but you're preaching to the choir here, kiddo. Don't tell us what we should and shouldn't do. We don't come to where you work and knock the sample corndog out of your hand.


Oh my god that shit is funny. Yeah why do I hear everyone crying about the legal field right now? Last I heard it was a recession, and it's hard to find jobs in any field. 20 years from now, I'd rather be an attorney than a manager at Best Buy wondering why I didn't go to law school.


20 years from now, even if you go to law school, you may be a manager at Best Buy wondering "why the fuck did I go to law school? I could have bought a house by now if I didn't have all this school debt."

Dblock20165
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby Dblock20165 » Thu Oct 27, 2011 6:28 pm

JCougar wrote:
Dblock20165 wrote:
Real Madrid wrote:Sorry your career didn't pan out the way you wanted it to, but you're preaching to the choir here, kiddo. Don't tell us what we should and shouldn't do. We don't come to where you work and knock the sample corndog out of your hand.


Oh my god that shit is funny. Yeah why do I hear everyone crying about the legal field right now? Last I heard it was a recession, and it's hard to find jobs in any field. 20 years from now, I'd rather be an attorney than a manager at Best Buy wondering why I didn't go to law school.


20 years from now, even if you go to law school, you may be a manager at Best Buy wondering "why the fuck did I go to law school? I could have bought a house by now if I didn't have all this school debt."


That's a valid point, but I'm looking at going part-time, so no real opportunity costs, target school is George Mason, with crazy low tuition, and I still have some of the GI bill left so 1st year is payed for. Now, I understand not everyone is in this situation, but for OP is blanketing a whole group of people that have very different circumstances.

SYoshi11
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby SYoshi11 » Thu Oct 27, 2011 7:26 pm

So, if I get into Harvard and pay sticker, I am making a bad decision?

I know people have been talking about law school in general -- but I'm really concerned with HYS. If I have to pay sticker at those schools, should I not go?

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minnbills
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby minnbills » Thu Oct 27, 2011 7:27 pm

SYoshi11 wrote:So, if I get into Harvard and pay sticker, I am making a bad decision?

I know people have been talking about law school in general -- but I'm really concerned with HYS. If I have to pay sticker at those schools, should I not go?


Yes, it is worth it to pay sticker to HYS- if you want to be a lawyer.

SYoshi11
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby SYoshi11 » Thu Oct 27, 2011 7:34 pm

I mean, is it economically worth it? Will I make money? Can I hit the 160k? Can I stay employed?




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