Warning to all 0L's

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89vision
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby 89vision » Sun Oct 23, 2011 11:40 pm

Big hater of the OWS protests actually. But nice try. I am not aiming for big law or the private sector, at all. Public interest, think tank type jobs. Assuming that I will not succeed based on my weariness of exaggerated pessismism and poorly supportive stats is honestly pretty pathetic. But if it makes you feel better, go for it. Again, people don't seem too keen on reading, but the legal job market in my hometown is strong. Not all regions are hurting. It is ignorant to think that since most markets are over saturated all markets must be. Isn't there something on the LSAT about false inferences?

It also pretty sad that you feel the need to put down people who don't wallow in pessimism. Yeah, shame on me for having Professor's who continuosly offer accurate analysis of the job market and solid advice on what to pay for a degree. Shame on me for not buying into the supposed educational conspiracy. Schools benefit from students gaining employment, not selling degrees, largely at non for profit schools, and having their students unemployeed.

Is it not counter intuitive for schools to grant degrees to students who will not gain employment?

You seem to not fully understand my points. Please re read and ask for clarification before making PMS comments.

I am realistic for my market and my needs. Sorry, but your analysis of the market is not accurate for my location. Again, your trends and assumptions are not true for where I want to practice. Did I make that clear this time? I am not entering an over saturated market. A JD is a worthwhile investment for me. Every recession has ended. The economy will recover. A good chunck of people entering law school are not giving up particularly valuable employment prospects, either. The pessimism you are selling and the generalizations you are making put you a lot closer to the OWS people than a person who believes in economic recovery...


Phd's are probably the best degree you can get. Getting paid to study and research is an awesome opportunity. I would love to have that experience after I settle on an area that I want to spend years studying. Solid work experience helps a bit for that as well.

ihhwap1
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Postby ihhwap1 » Sun Oct 23, 2011 11:44 pm

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Last edited by ihhwap1 on Mon Oct 31, 2011 11:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Bronte
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby Bronte » Mon Oct 24, 2011 12:03 am

89vision, I'm not a pessimist. I try very hard to reach reasonable conclusions, and I'm not some bitter burn out. I'm a second year law student at a top 14 school. I'm employed at one of the top firms in the country. I've been reading law school employment news for years. I also have a finance background and a pretty clear understanding of the economy. We're in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and probably the worst legal market in history. If you think it's not still going on, you're not paying attention. There's very real concerns of an additional crisis stemming from the European debt situation. There's also major concerns about the long-term structural integrity of the real economy in this country, and the financial markets have been fluctuating wildly since the crisis started.

The link I posted above, and I'll post it again: http://www.nalp.org/uploads/Classof2010 ... ndings.pdf, not only states the statistic I referenced, but also states that "the Class of 2010 employment data reveal a job market with many underlying structural weaknesses, and the employment profile for this class marks the interruption of employment patterns for new law school graduates that have been undisturbed for decades." This was not written by some pessimist; it was written by the National Association for Legal Professionals.

No, I don't know your particular situation. You haven't really disclosed it; you've just stated conclusions about it that are fairly unlikely to be true. I never said you should not get a JD. I do know, however, that there are very few schools that justify taking out large loans. There are also many, many schools that aren't worth going to for free. This is not pessimism, it's a well reasoned and well supported conclusion.

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Richie Tenenbaum
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby Richie Tenenbaum » Mon Oct 24, 2011 12:06 am

89vision wrote:Big hater of the OWS protests actually. But nice try. I am not aiming for big law or the private sector, at all. Public interest, think tank type jobs. Assuming that I will not succeed based on my weariness of exaggerated pessismism and poorly supportive stats is honestly pretty pathetic. But if it makes you feel better, go for it. Again, people don't seem too keen on reading, but the legal job market in my hometown is strong. Not all regions are hurting. It is ignorant to think that since most markets are over saturated all markets must be. Isn't there something on the LSAT about false inferences?

It also pretty sad that you feel the need to put down people who don't wallow in pessimism. Yeah, shame on me for having Professor's who continuosly offer accurate analysis of the job market and solid advice on what to pay for a degree. Shame on me for not buying into the supposed educational conspiracy. Schools benefit from students gaining employment, not selling degrees, largely at non for profit schools, and having their students unemployeed.

Is it not counter intuitive for schools to grant degrees to students who will not gain employment?

You seem to not fully understand my points. Please re read and ask for clarification before making PMS comments.

I am realistic for my market and my needs. Sorry, but your analysis of the market is not accurate for my location. Again, your trends and assumptions are not true for where I want to practice. Did I make that clear this time? I am not entering an over saturated market. A JD is a worthwhile investment for me. Every recession has ended. The economy will recover. A good chunck of people entering law school are not giving up particularly valuable employment prospects, either. The pessimism you are selling and the generalizations you are making put you a lot closer to the OWS people than a person who believes in economic recovery...


Phd's are probably the best degree you can get. Getting paid to study and research is an awesome opportunity. I would love to have that experience after I settle on an area that I want to spend years studying. Solid work experience helps a bit for that as well.


You need to learn how to quote, so people don't have to guess regarding who you are addressing when you say "you."

And I call bullshit on your area not being affected by the economy. The golden era was in the 2000's that climaxed in 2007. Things are not returning to that level, mainly because it was probably unsustainable. Law firms can't/won't take on as huge of summer classes anymore. I'm from Texas. Texas was not hit as hard as most of the rest of the country. Hiring levels are on the rise. But it would be stupid for me to try and argue that firm hiring hasn't been affected by the economy. It has and it still is.

Schools benefit from students gaining employment, not selling degrees, largely at non for profit schools, and having their students unemployeed.

Is it not counter intuitive for schools to grant degrees to students who will not gain employment?


No, schools benefit as long as applicants are still applying in droves. And law schools are money-making machines, no matter if public or private. And yes it is counterintuitive. That doesn't mean it isn't happening.

scammedhard
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby scammedhard » Mon Oct 24, 2011 12:18 am

Is it not counter intuitive for schools to grant degrees to students who will not gain employment?


School get paid upfront, and there is also a no-refund policy. Why would schools care if their graduates are homeless, starving, and unable to service their student loans? Not their problem; they already got paid.
Of course, at some point the government might get tired of funding the insanity. Will we ever see that day?

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Grizz
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby Grizz » Mon Oct 24, 2011 12:21 am

89vision wrote:Yeah, shame on me for having Professor's who continuosly offer accurate analysis of the job market and solid advice on what to pay for a degree.

None of my professors have a clue about what's going on really. But they write great articles that EVERYONE reads!!11!!!1!

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minnbills
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby minnbills » Mon Oct 24, 2011 12:21 am

scammedhard wrote:
Is it not counter intuitive for schools to grant degrees to students who will not gain employment?


School get paid upfront, and there is also a no-refund policy. Why would schools care if their graduates are homeless, starving, and unable to service their student loans? Not their problem; they already got paid.
Of course, at some point the government might get tired of funding the insanity. Will we ever see that day?


Actually don't you think the bad publicity is already hurting them? Class sizes have gone down.

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prezidentv8
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby prezidentv8 » Mon Oct 24, 2011 1:47 am

89vision wrote:I think my Professor's and adviser's have my best interests in mind.


89vision wrote:I think my Professor's and adviser's have my best interests in mind.


89vision wrote:I think my Professor's and adviser's have my best interests in mind.



Arrrrrgggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

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tyro
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby tyro » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:22 am

scammedhard wrote:Of course, at some point the government might get tired of funding the insanity. Will we ever see that day?

Is there a real possibility for tuition cuts in the near future? I'm just curious + haven't looked into this question in particular.
Assuming more people become aware of the dwindling odds of real employment for T2-T4 schools in particular, could this cause a large-scale deflation in tuition prices or will schools simply lower their cut-offs?

shock259
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby shock259 » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:44 am

Doubtful - why would they? Many people are apparently willing to pay mind-boggling costs for slim chances at jobs. Not only that, but USNews encourages them to spend more per student, which causes tuition to rise.

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tyro
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby tyro » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:52 am

NALP Report wrote:Of those [2010] graduates of whom employment was known, only 68.4% obtained a job for which bar passage was required

That was an interesting stat.

Also, on the pie chart it shows that 6.2% of respondents reported that they were "seeking job" which seems low. This could be an indicator of response bias where those who were doing the best were the most likely to respond.

Edited here to say that apparantly only 1,700 of the students surveyed from 192 schools had an unknown status. I thought it would be more.
Anyway, thanks for posting that this Bronte.

shock259 wrote:Doubtful - why would they? Many people are apparently willing to pay mind-boggling costs for slim chances at jobs. Not only that, but USNews encourages them to spend more per student, which causes tuition to rise.


I was thinking it would be doubtful as well but with class sizes showing the unsurprising trends of reduction, I'm wondering how schools will respond.
Last edited by tyro on Mon Oct 24, 2011 4:36 am, edited 1 time in total.

minnesotasam
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby minnesotasam » Mon Oct 24, 2011 4:16 am

msuz wrote:someone has a class with the singer of Blind Melon, too.

How can I be the first person to make a zombie law student joke here? Damnit I'm old now. Screw you all.

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JusticeHarlan
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby JusticeHarlan » Mon Oct 24, 2011 7:56 am

I don't know who's more insufferable, the "you're all going to be living in boxes on the street" crowd, or the "it's all sunshine and puppies" crowd.

msuz
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby msuz » Mon Oct 24, 2011 8:43 am

89vision wrote:Again, people don't seem too keen on reading, but the legal job market in my hometown is strong. Not all regions are hurting. It is ignorant to think that since most markets are over saturated all markets must be. Isn't there something on the LSAT about false inferences?

89vision wrote:TLS may not be an accurate depiction of things as a whole, though. I don't rely on ancedotal evidence, which is what you are providing at this juncture. Well, these people that I read about online, who SAY they have x stats, went to x school, graduated at x %...I don't know, but I don't think people are always completely honest.

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Aberzombie1892
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby Aberzombie1892 » Mon Oct 24, 2011 8:53 am

The only viable long term solution to this problem is if the federal government got out of the business of guaranteeing student loans. All other relevant problems will slowly fix themselves (glut of X people with a given major/degree, tuition, student loan debt, etc.).

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kwais
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby kwais » Mon Oct 24, 2011 9:26 am

this is a minor point but I think worth saying. Schools are not lowering their class size because they can't fill them. They are doing it voluntarily, most likely to up their spending per student numbers. It's not a reliable indicator of schools reacting to the economy.

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bandenjamin
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby bandenjamin » Mon Oct 24, 2011 9:45 am

JusticeHarlan wrote:I don't know who's more insufferable, the "you're all going to be living in boxes on the street" crowd, or the "it's all sunshine and puppies" crowd.


Personally I'm sure after Law School I'll be living in boxes on the street with sunshine and puppies!

scammedhard
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby scammedhard » Mon Oct 24, 2011 10:39 am

tyro wrote:
scammedhard wrote:Of course, at some point the government might get tired of funding the insanity. Will we ever see that day?

Is there a real possibility for tuition cuts in the near future? I'm just curious + haven't looked into this question in particular.
Assuming more people become aware of the dwindling odds of real employment for T2-T4 schools in particular, could this cause a large-scale deflation in tuition prices or will schools simply lower their cut-offs?

I believe that as long as the government provides unlimited credit, universities will keep finding people to sign on the dotted line. People are spending up to 30K/year to go to culinary school: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/14/busin ... wanted=all. Taking that into consideration, god knows how much people are willing to spend to go to law school?
I think providing student loans is fine ONLY IF there is a reasonable and prudent overseer to make sure universities don't abuse that privilege. Legal education and many other fields lack that oversight (the ABA, for instance, is pretty useless). Therefore, I am of the opinion of restricting the amount of credit.

Bottom line: If universities want credit available so that students can pay for what universities charge, then universities need to justify their costs, and a competent overseer needs to be keeping a watchful eye on these costs.

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89vision
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby 89vision » Mon Oct 24, 2011 11:49 am

It's funny that you are stating my conclusions are false, while it has equal evidence as your conclusions about my regions. Again, you are incorrectly reading my statements. There are two law schools in my how town. There is not a lot of competition, and students I have talked to at the higher ranking one are not pessimistic about their job prospects. They are saying you will land a comfortable job if you're in the top half, and employment is only an issue if you are not putting the work in to do well. The problem I am citing is people on here are taking something that is true in most cases as true in all cases. That is an error in reasoning. Then you attack my views that have the same amount of evidence as yours, for not having evidence. The statistics I did ask for, people on here did not provide. The OP is scaring people into thinking there are not jobs for people, and that is untrue in my town. It was not hurt that bad compared to most cities, because no housing bubble ever formed. There are very few foreclosure's, maybe a handful of small, independent banks failed, but things are going well. Unemployment did go up, but less than the national average. Not ALL places are taking a huge hit, and it is wrong to say that. It is wrong to say no Professor's or adviser's have insight. Again, that is taking something one perceives to be true from his experiences as being true in mine and globally. It's fine if you want to disagree, but you are the one making universal assumptions, which are typically wrong. There are exceptions to most events and circumstances. I never said you told me not to get a JD. You are using straw man arguments. Please stop.

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Nicholasnickynic
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby Nicholasnickynic » Mon Oct 24, 2011 12:12 pm

It is a mystery to me why people think IBR will exist beyond a couple years. It is a brand new program that could be wiped away fairly quickly. We lived without it for decades. We could live without it again.



Then I'll do ICR. That's been around since '94.
17 years long enough for you?

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Renne Walker
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby Renne Walker » Mon Oct 24, 2011 2:46 pm

Given this economy, how red is the employment warning light for T-14 students ranked in the top 50% of their class? I would guess the legal profession can avail themselves of 3,500 annual positions paying in the +$8K [monthly] range. Right/Wrong?

PS. I wish there was T-14 data. I doubt if it readily exists given that a number of schools have not posted employment info beyond 2007 (some 2009).

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romothesavior
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby romothesavior » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:03 pm

Renne Walker wrote:Given this economy, how red is the employment warning light for T-14 students ranked in the top 50% of their class? I would guess the legal profession can avail themselves of 3,500 annual positions paying in the +$8K [monthly] range. Right/Wrong?

PS. I wish there was T-14 data. I doubt if it readily exists given that a number of schools have not posted employment info beyond 2007 (some 2009).

I never understand a thing you say.

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romothesavior
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby romothesavior » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:05 pm

89vision wrote:It's funny that you are stating my conclusions are false, while it has equal evidence as your conclusions about my regions. Again, you are incorrectly reading my statements. There are two law schools in my how town. There is not a lot of competition, and students I have talked to at the higher ranking one are not pessimistic about their job prospects. They are saying you will land a comfortable job if you're in the top half, and employment is only an issue if you are not putting the work in to do well. The problem I am citing is people on here are taking something that is true in most cases as true in all cases. That is an error in reasoning. Then you attack my views that have the same amount of evidence as yours, for not having evidence. The statistics I did ask for, people on here did not provide. The OP is scaring people into thinking there are not jobs for people, and that is untrue in my town. It was not hurt that bad compared to most cities, because no housing bubble ever formed. There are very few foreclosure's, maybe a handful of small, independent banks failed, but things are going well. Unemployment did go up, but less than the national average. Not ALL places are taking a huge hit, and it is wrong to say that. It is wrong to say no Professor's or adviser's have insight. Again, that is taking something one perceives to be true from his experiences as being true in mine and globally. It's fine if you want to disagree, but you are the one making universal assumptions, which are typically wrong. There are exceptions to most events and circumstances. I never said you told me not to get a JD. You are using straw man arguments. Please stop.

What region are you in? I would bet my left nut that your area is oversaturated and its legal market is in the shitter.

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romothesavior
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby romothesavior » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:10 pm

Grizz wrote:
89vision wrote:Yeah, shame on me for having Professor's who continuosly offer accurate analysis of the job market and solid advice on what to pay for a degree.

None of my professors have a clue about what's going on really. But they write great articles that EVERYONE reads!!11!!!1!

+1. Most law profs don't have a clue about the job market (and most don't even care), and OP really thinks his professors have a clue? And it sounds like these are his undergraduate professors and advisers. Like they have any idea what is going on in the legal industry. LOL

My favorite undergrad prof had a J.D. and was also the pre-law adviser. Dude was smart as shit and definitely cared a lot about students. He and I were very close, and remain close to this day. But even he was totally out of the loop when it came to job stats and the risks involved with law school. I send him emails once in a while with newspaper articles on the sorry state of law school, and it comes to a surprise to him.

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Kirk
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Re: Warning to all 0L's

Postby Kirk » Mon Oct 24, 2011 4:03 pm

romothesavior wrote:What region are you in? I would bet my left nut that your area is oversaturated and its legal market is in the shitter.

Anyone else notice that there is a real tendency for those with thousands of posts to be extremely negative?

For every 5,000 posts, it must, at the very least, take 3 minutes (read the topic, make the post, etc.), meaning that 5,000 posts is equal to 11 solid (24/7) days writing on TLS. Which is fine; knock your lights out, but Y always so negative?




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