minnbills wrote:I think the # of well-qualified applicants won't really change, and it will be business as usual for the T14.
On the other hand, Cornell dropped its GPA median to 3.66 which is a little sketchy, UIUC happened, and UMN dropped its 25th to 158, so the writing may be on the wall for some more drops for some of these T1s.
I'm not so sure that is the case. Here's a couple reasons why:
~50% of the drop in test takers last year was from December which is both later in the cycle and historically has a significantly lower percentage of top test takers. (Mean = 150.11, SD = 9.92). Approximate result: A 170 is the 97.8th percentile, ~2.2% of December test takers score a 170+.
Now consider June (Mean = 151.68, 10.51). Approximate result: A 170 is the 95.9th percentile, ~4.1% of June test takers score a 170+. Last year there actually was an increase in the number of June test takers (1.2%) while this year there was a massive decrease (-18.7%).
Just based on the aforementioned results, I would expect a more significant drop in the number of high-end test takers especially because of the decrease in June. I realize this drop may not be as significant as the percentages indicate since December historically has a higher number of test takers. In other words, be aware of the shift from percentages to absolutes.
*I realize I'm extrapolating which in turn requires a lot of unwarranted assumptions (Distributions of scores will be similar, the number of test takers is proportional to the number of applicants, October will show a similar decrease, etc). As such, my analysis should be taken as purely speculative.
*I used data from 2009-2010 for calculations.