Getting some serious cold feet about attending this fall...

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scammedhard
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Re: Getting some serious cold feet about attending this fall...

Postby scammedhard » Sun Jul 17, 2011 7:01 pm

Verity wrote:If you're not in the top 1/3rd after 1L, just drop out, because the odds of getting a good paying job with decent long-term prospects would not come close to justifying another two years worth of debt.

I'm guessing you're going to UMN or Iowa. Also be prepared to stay there, if you don't do better than top 10%.

No one should go to a higher ed program under the terms of "top 1/3 or drop out." If so, don't go; instead, save time and money, and focus your resources into a better career.
"Top 1/3 or drop out" is a good strategy for a weekend in Las Vegas, not law school.

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Patriot1208
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Re: Getting some serious cold feet about attending this fall...

Postby Patriot1208 » Sun Jul 17, 2011 7:09 pm

scammedhard wrote:
Patriot1208 wrote:An expected value calculation is just taking your chance at all outcomes and adding them together. Without more detailed info I couldn't do a legit one with cornell, but look at their employment situation I can guarantee it would be above that.

And therein lies the problem. To assess if the investment is worth it, first one needs reliable, accurate employment and career stats. Frankly, I don't think Cornell (or any other law school) offers such data. My bet is that their data is wildly inflated.

the nlj and A3 data alone, which is widely accepted to be accurate, would still allow me to reach that conclusion. I don't even need the self reported data of Cornell to make that claim.

scammedhard
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Re: Getting some serious cold feet about attending this fall...

Postby scammedhard » Sun Jul 17, 2011 7:17 pm

Patriot1208 wrote:
scammedhard wrote:
Patriot1208 wrote:the nlj and A3 data alone, which is widely accepted to be accurate, would still allow me to reach that conclusion. I don't even need the self reported data of Cornell to make that claim.

I thought the "nlj and A3" data was only for for those working in the "nlj and A3." What about the rest of the class? I'd love to see your reasoning in action. I'd really appreciate you do the math. Thanks.

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Patriot1208
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Re: Getting some serious cold feet about attending this fall...

Postby Patriot1208 » Sun Jul 17, 2011 7:32 pm

scammedhard wrote:
Patriot1208 wrote:
scammedhard wrote:
Patriot1208 wrote:the nlj and A3 data alone, which is widely accepted to be accurate, would still allow me to reach that conclusion. I don't even need the self reported data of Cornell to make that claim.

I thought the "nlj and A3" data was only for for those working in the "nlj and A3." What about the rest of the class? I'd love to see your reasoning in action. I'd really appreciate you do the math. Thanks.

Think about it this way. In 2008 Cornell had 62% in nlj firms, in 2009 that number dropped to 42% and in 2010 it was back up to 55%. So realistically the number may be ~50% for the class of 2014. It could be higher or a bit lower but this gets my point across.

Lets assume 85% of those nlj people are making 160k and the other 15% are making 100k. Assuming every outcome is just as likely, even if the rest of the class was unemployed your expected value for first year income is (.5*.85*160 =68) + (.5*.15*100=7.5) + 0 for a total of 75.5k. Since we then have A3 clerks who almost always leave to higher paying jobs, a few government workers who will make 70ish or more, and most of the rest of the class will make some money, the expected value is actually much higher. Probably in the range of 90-100k. Obviously what that cauculation doesn't tell you is how skewed it may be to one side, but it's still high. This may not be the best way to look at it, but it provides some perspective.

scammedhard
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Re: Getting some serious cold feet about attending this fall...

Postby scammedhard » Sun Jul 17, 2011 8:25 pm

Patriot1208 wrote:Lets assume 85% of those nlj people are making 160k and the other 15% are making 100k. Assuming every outcome is just as likely, even if the rest of the class was unemployed your expected value for first year income is (.5*.85*160 =68) + (.5*.15*100=7.5) + 0 for a total of 75.5k. Since we then have A3 clerks who almost always leave to higher paying jobs, a few government workers who will make 70ish or more, and most of the rest of the class will make some money, the expected value is actually much higher. Probably in the range of 90-100k. Obviously what that cauculation doesn't tell you is how skewed it may be to one side, but it's still high. This may not be the best way to look at it, but it provides some perspective.

I see your logic and math. It looks sound, except that all of it is based on the assumption that "85% of those nlj people are making 160k and the other 15% are making 100k." Is this a fair assumption? Is there data to back it up? Thanks.

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Patriot1208
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Re: Getting some serious cold feet about attending this fall...

Postby Patriot1208 » Sun Jul 17, 2011 8:35 pm

scammedhard wrote:
Patriot1208 wrote:Lets assume 85% of those nlj people are making 160k and the other 15% are making 100k. Assuming every outcome is just as likely, even if the rest of the class was unemployed your expected value for first year income is (.5*.85*160 =68) + (.5*.15*100=7.5) + 0 for a total of 75.5k. Since we then have A3 clerks who almost always leave to higher paying jobs, a few government workers who will make 70ish or more, and most of the rest of the class will make some money, the expected value is actually much higher. Probably in the range of 90-100k. Obviously what that cauculation doesn't tell you is how skewed it may be to one side, but it's still high. This may not be the best way to look at it, but it provides some perspective.

I see your logic and math. It looks sound, except that all of it is based on the assumption that "85% of those nlj people are making 160k and the other 15% are making 100k." Is this a fair assumption? Is there data to back it up? Thanks.

It's tough to know. Obviously a decent amount of nlj firms don't pay market, but most do. And of course market is different in different cities. NYC is 160k but chicago firms are often at 145k. You would need to go through all the firms people were hired at and look up their salary statistics on nalp and how many people from Cornell that they hired to know for sure. From my understanding that's probably a fair estimate, especially considering Cornell primarily places in NYC, but impossible to know for sure without more data.

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sunynp
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Re: Getting some serious cold feet about attending this fall...

Postby sunynp » Sun Jul 17, 2011 8:48 pm

scammedhard wrote:
Verity wrote:If you're not in the top 1/3rd after 1L, just drop out, because the odds of getting a good paying job with decent long-term prospects would not come close to justifying another two years worth of debt.

I'm guessing you're going to UMN or Iowa. Also be prepared to stay there, if you don't do better than top 10%.

No one should go to a higher ed program under the terms of "top 1/3 or drop out." If so, don't go; instead, save time and money, and focus your resources into a better career.
"Top 1/3 or drop out" is a good strategy for a weekend in Las Vegas, not law school.


I think that if someone is really not making it, working hard, but struggling at the bottom of the class, dropping out is a reasonable consideration. I don't know where to draw that line, it is an individual decision.

kublaikahn
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Re: Getting some serious cold feet about attending this fall...

Postby kublaikahn » Sun Jul 17, 2011 9:03 pm

Retake. :D

The good news is you have the good judgement to seek advice on what is a very tough and important decision. The bad news is you are seeking that advice on TLS.

Here's some more "free" advice. If your question is will you make 70k+, you miss the point. Your three years are worth way more than 80k in debt. I would work for a couple years. Any deal you can get today, you can get tomorrow. In reality, you will probably move up in the rankings/scholly money. Put away some scratch, own a decent car free and clear, and get some engineering skills in your quiver for a post-law fall back. Then retake, apply to Berkeley, and become the next big thing in patent law.

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Verity
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Re: Getting some serious cold feet about attending this fall...

Postby Verity » Sun Jul 17, 2011 9:45 pm

scammedhard wrote:
Verity wrote:If you're not in the top 1/3rd after 1L, just drop out, because the odds of getting a good paying job with decent long-term prospects would not come close to justifying another two years worth of debt.

I'm guessing you're going to UMN or Iowa. Also be prepared to stay there, if you don't do better than top 10%.

No one should go to a higher ed program under the terms of "top 1/3 or drop out." If so, don't go; instead, save time and money, and focus your resources into a better career.
"Top 1/3 or drop out" is a good strategy for a weekend in Las Vegas, not law school.


Your rationale would mean that everyone starting school at basically any place but T6 is wasting their time and money, because the gamble is unwarranted. OP, if you don't think you could pull off top third, then yes, don't go. If you think you have a shot, and you want to be a lawyer, I don't think you'd be wasting your time and money. One tip: work harder than you ever have. Gun for the number one spot. Don't give a shit about the snickering douchebags who make fun of gunners. Just try your absolute hardest to be the best. It's the only variable you can control, really.




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