Why GPA medians will continue to rise

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dkt4
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Re: Why GPA medians will continue to rise

Postby dkt4 » Thu Jul 14, 2011 5:30 pm

afitouri wrote:I disagree with this.

Because the market for lawyers is dropping, without doubt there will soon be significantly fewer people interested in law school. Within three years time people will realize that law school isn't the path to a sure job that it used to be and more of the best qualified people will elect to pursue different degrees.

So, more of those with the highest GPAs will no longer be seeking law schools. And the more people who would have otherwise scored higher on LSATs will be seeking different careers. This will probably lower law school costs too.


this is a really stupid post

WestOfTheRest
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Re: Why GPA medians will continue to rise

Postby WestOfTheRest » Thu Jul 14, 2011 5:33 pm

Desert Fox wrote:
bdubs wrote:
CastleRock wrote:Moot point. GPA can only rise so high. Who cares.


Those who have outdated underinflated GPAs, those who are entering undergrad with the thought of potentially attending law school, and people who were too lazy to do as well as the upcoming "average" student.

My point was that I'm guessing that the rising tide is going to lift all, or most, of the GPA boats. The lower T14 still has medians below 3.7, I think those may go up closer to 3.8 soon.


Eh the number of people who have old GPAs is pretty small. Who it really hurts is people at schools who don't inflate GPA. 3.8 is extremely high at many schools.

The thing about grade inflation at higher ranked schools is that it might not actually be grade inflation. It might actually be a reflection of the higher calibre of students who self-selected to those institutions in the first place. Although you would still expect an even distribution of grades, the standard deviation may be significantly smaller and that may account for perceived grade inflation.

I myself went to a school that did no grade inflating and is not a prestigious institution by american standards.

071816
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Re: Why GPA medians will continue to rise

Postby 071816 » Thu Jul 14, 2011 5:36 pm

dkt4 wrote:
afitouri wrote:I disagree with this.

Because the market for lawyers is dropping, without doubt there will soon be significantly fewer people interested in law school. Within three years time people will realize that law school isn't the path to a sure job that it used to be and more of the best qualified people will elect to pursue different degrees.

So, more of those with the highest GPAs will no longer be seeking law schools. And the more people who would have otherwise scored higher on LSATs will be seeking different careers. This will probably lower law school costs too.


this is a really stupid post


I agree. Who says that the market is filled with rational actors and who ever thought that going to law school resulted in a sure path to a job? Nothing is guaranteed.

09042014
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Re: Why GPA medians will continue to rise

Postby 09042014 » Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:23 pm

CastleRock wrote:
Desert Fox wrote:
bdubs wrote:
CastleRock wrote:Moot point. GPA can only rise so high. Who cares.


Those who have outdated underinflated GPAs, those who are entering undergrad with the thought of potentially attending law school, and people who were too lazy to do as well as the upcoming "average" student.

My point was that I'm guessing that the rising tide is going to lift all, or most, of the GPA boats. The lower T14 still has medians below 3.7, I think those may go up closer to 3.8 soon.


Eh the number of people who have old GPAs is pretty small. Who it really hurts is people at schools who don't inflate GPA. 3.8 is extremely high at many schools.

The thing about grade inflation at higher ranked schools is that it might not actually be grade inflation. It might actually be a reflection of the higher calibre of students who self-selected to those institutions in the first place. Although you would still expect an even distribution of grades, the standard deviation may be significantly smaller and that may account for perceived grade inflation.

I myself went to a school that did no grade inflating and is not a prestigious institution by american standards.


The caliber of student isn't growing, while are the GPAs?

merlin2009
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Re: Why GPA medians will continue to rise

Postby merlin2009 » Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:31 pm

ihhwap1 wrote:
WSJ_Law wrote:Disagree.

3.9 LSDAS HYP ~ 3.9 LSDAS Podunk because USNWR doesn't discriminate. They may also look to other transcript features like major (hard sciences vs. Poli.Sci/Communications), grade trending, etc. HLS/YLS may discriminate because they can, but others will not.

In any event: Rarely is it the case that UG prestige is the deciding factor over other more pertinent softs (like PS/DS/YLS250/W.E./LORs/TFA/Military Service/NCAA Athletics/Leadership credentials/etc.).

This.

My point was that, everything else being equal, if Student A and B are both 3.9/170, with Yale having massive grade inflation and Podunk U having one of the hardest grading scales in the county, Student B's GPA is probably more impressive. At least, that's what I've read. Will it be a deciding factor in admissions? Probably not. WSJ Law is right, there are other more pertinent soft factors. Just thought I'd insert my $.02

But yeah moot point. If grade inflation continues to rise, I guess it only makes sense that law school medians will rise as well.

Do you think that'll make the LSAT weight even more important in the future? If everyone is applying with a 4.0, then I'd have to believe that the LSAT will probably be even more deciding than it is already. That's the whole point of standardized testing, really. Putting everyone on an equal playing field.



This is prob not correct when you consider the caliber of students at Yale and Podunk (I might be biased since I go to the former). Someone who works hard enough to get a 3.9 at Yale can prob get a 4.0 with his eyes closed at Podunk. Also, percentiles at Podunk are inflated in the sense that there are lots of students who genuinely don't try or care, thus forming the fodder at the bottom. Not the case at Yale.

If everyone is paddling hard, it gets hard to stay in the middle of the pack. If half the people never tried to paddle, that becomes a lot easier.

WestOfTheRest
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Re: Why GPA medians will continue to rise

Postby WestOfTheRest » Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:31 pm

Desert Fox wrote:The caliber of student isn't growing, while are the GPAs?

Lol, I'm making assumptions regarding you grammar and/or spelling.

I wasn't clear in my statement. I was merely addressing the fact that top schools aren't necessarily worse than other schools. But on a whole, I would never suggest grade inflation is imaginary.

afitouri
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Re: Why GPA medians will continue to rise

Postby afitouri » Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:31 pm

chimp wrote:
dkt4 wrote:
afitouri wrote:I disagree with this.

Because the market for lawyers is dropping, without doubt there will soon be significantly fewer people interested in law school. Within three years time people will realize that law school isn't the path to a sure job that it used to be and more of the best qualified people will elect to pursue different degrees.

So, more of those with the highest GPAs will no longer be seeking law schools. And the more people who would have otherwise scored higher on LSATs will be seeking different careers. This will probably lower law school costs too.


this is a really stupid post


I agree. Who says that the market is filled with rational actors and who ever thought that going to law school resulted in a sure path to a job? Nothing is guaranteed.


Never said the market is filled with rational actors. Simply said the market isn't void of them.

People go to school as an investment. This is a fact. You invest to obtain a return on investment. There are many options in choosing a school. If law schools were to remain especially exclusive and expensive while the legal field fails to return on that investment, then with time fewer people will seek those exclusive and expensive law schools.

This, in turn, will leave the law schools with fewer applicants and thus less need to maintain high demands.

Simple econ guys. Don't act like you're hot shit just because its over your head.

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KingMenes
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Re: Why GPA medians will continue to rise

Postby KingMenes » Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:47 pm

Is it likely that the potential pool of applicants that feed into the law school system will now go into the healthcare and engineering fields based on their inherent skillset? It seems to me that those seeking to attend law school, typically were not as strong in the hard sciences. If they were strong in the harder sciences, I'd think that they would pursue careers in the high demand high pay healthcare field. Right now, the healthcare, information technologies, sciences, and unskilled labor markets are the highest demand markets for labor in the U.S. Outside of those labor markets, what other markets are growing in this economy? For the most part, the U.S. economy is horrid in all industries outside of those mentioned. What percentage of current applicants to law school are seeking law school because the economy is in a slump, possibly long-term according to Timothy Geithner?

dkt4
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Re: Why GPA medians will continue to rise

Postby dkt4 » Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:51 pm

afitouri wrote:Simple econ guys. Don't act like you're hot shit just because its over your head.


your posting is laughable.

afitouri
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Re: Why GPA medians will continue to rise

Postby afitouri » Thu Jul 14, 2011 7:05 pm

dkt4 wrote:
afitouri wrote:Simple econ guys. Don't act like you're hot shit just because its over your head.


your posting is laughable.


So is your trolling.

071816
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Re: Why GPA medians will continue to rise

Postby 071816 » Thu Jul 14, 2011 7:10 pm

afitouri wrote:
chimp wrote:
dkt4 wrote:
afitouri wrote:I disagree with this.

Because the market for lawyers is dropping, without doubt there will soon be significantly fewer people interested in law school. Within three years time people will realize that law school isn't the path to a sure job that it used to be and more of the best qualified people will elect to pursue different degrees.

So, more of those with the highest GPAs will no longer be seeking law schools. And the more people who would have otherwise scored higher on LSATs will be seeking different careers. This will probably lower law school costs too.


this is a really stupid post


I agree. Who says that the market is filled with rational actors and who ever thought that going to law school resulted in a sure path to a job? Nothing is guaranteed.


Never said the market is filled with rational actors. Simply said the market isn't void of them.

People go to school as an investment. This is a fact. You invest to obtain a return on investment. There are many options in choosing a school. If law schools were to remain especially exclusive and expensive while the legal field fails to return on that investment, then with time fewer people will seek those exclusive and expensive law schools.

This, in turn, will leave the law schools with fewer applicants and thus less need to maintain high demands.

Simple econ guys. Don't act like you're hot shit just because its over your head.


Your faulty assumptions:

1) Market is made up of a significant percentage of rational actors.
2) In the past, graduating from law school all but guaranteed you a job.
3) Many people go to law school because they have a reasonable sense of what the return on their investment will be.
4) Many people do not go to law school simply because they don't know what else to do with their lives.
5) The requisite amount of people with high GPAs and LSATs, who want to go to law school, will no longer be willing to take the risk. (Seems to me that it would be more likely that people with shitty GPAs and LSAT scores will start to choose different career paths rather than attend TTTs).

You are assuming a whole hell of a lot and it seems like a lot of this stuff is going right over your head.

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robotclubmember
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Re: Why GPA medians will continue to rise

Postby robotclubmember » Thu Jul 14, 2011 7:18 pm

chimp wrote:
afitouri wrote:
Never said the market is filled with rational actors. Simply said the market isn't void of them.

People go to school as an investment. This is a fact. You invest to obtain a return on investment. There are many options in choosing a school. If law schools were to remain especially exclusive and expensive while the legal field fails to return on that investment, then with time fewer people will seek those exclusive and expensive law schools.

This, in turn, will leave the law schools with fewer applicants and thus less need to maintain high demands.

Simple econ guys. Don't act like you're hot shit just because its over your head.


Your faulty assumptions:

1) Market is made up of a significant percentage of rational actors.
2) In the past, graduating from law school all but guaranteed you a job.
3) Many people go to law school because they have a reasonable sense of what the return on their investment will be.
4) Many people do not go to law school simply because they don't know what else to do with their lives.
5) The requisite amount of people with high GPAs and LSATs, who want to go to law school, will no longer be willing to take the risk. (Seems to me that it would be more likely that people with shitty GPAs and LSAT scores will start to choose different career paths rather than attend TTTs).

You are assuming a whole hell of a lot and it seems like a lot of this stuff is going right over your head.


lol

1) it isn't
2) it didn't (though times have been better)
3) they don't
4) they do
5) people with the right opportunities, abilities and tastes for the legal field will still be attracted to it.

so in short, those are all good points. but, i think the one difference now is that prospective students are receiving an overwhelming abundance of negative input from media and other lawyers on the job prospects. there is no one (except the schools) that is trying to tell you law school is a good investment. it wasn't always that way. i do think that there will be increased transparency, in time, and that the inability to support the surplus of lawyers will drive some applicants away. but probably not the top ones, those are the most adamant and least persuadable in their pursuit of models and bottles.

fewer people going to TTT seems realistic... hopefully?

071816
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Re: Why GPA medians will continue to rise

Postby 071816 » Thu Jul 14, 2011 7:22 pm

robotclubmember wrote:
chimp wrote:
afitouri wrote:
Never said the market is filled with rational actors. Simply said the market isn't void of them.

People go to school as an investment. This is a fact. You invest to obtain a return on investment. There are many options in choosing a school. If law schools were to remain especially exclusive and expensive while the legal field fails to return on that investment, then with time fewer people will seek those exclusive and expensive law schools.

This, in turn, will leave the law schools with fewer applicants and thus less need to maintain high demands.

Simple econ guys. Don't act like you're hot shit just because its over your head.


Your faulty assumptions:

1) Market is made up of a significant percentage of rational actors.
2) In the past, graduating from law school all but guaranteed you a job.
3) Many people go to law school because they have a reasonable sense of what the return on their investment will be.
4) Many people do not go to law school simply because they don't know what else to do with their lives.
5) The requisite amount of people with high GPAs and LSATs, who want to go to law school, will no longer be willing to take the risk. (Seems to me that it would be more likely that people with shitty GPAs and LSAT scores will start to choose different career paths rather than attend TTTs).

You are assuming a whole hell of a lot and it seems like a lot of this stuff is going right over your head.


lol

1) it isn't
2) it didn't (though times have been better)
3) they don't
4) they do
5) people with the right opportunities, abilities and tastes for the legal field will still be attracted to it.

so in short, those are all good points. but, i think the one difference now is that prospective students are receiving an overwhelming abundance of negative input from media and other lawyers on the job prospects. there is no one (except the schools) that is trying to tell you law school is a good investment. it wasn't always that way. i do think that there will be increased transparency, in time, and that the inability to support the surplus of lawyers will drive some applicants away. but probably not the top ones, those are the most adamant and least persuadable in their pursuit of models and bottles.

fewer people going to TTT seems realistic... hopefully?


I agree with you wholeheartedly, I just feel like afitouri grossly oversimplified the issue and made too many iffy assumptions. Trust me, I wish his/her assumptions were valid, but - as far as I can tell - they generally are not.
Last edited by 071816 on Thu Jul 14, 2011 7:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.

dkt4
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Re: Why GPA medians will continue to rise

Postby dkt4 » Thu Jul 14, 2011 7:24 pm

afitouri wrote:So is your trolling.


here's a break down of your posts...

"i disagree, law school GPAs are going to fall"
"the market for lawyers is dropping"
"the best qualified people won't want to be lawyers"
"if i wasn't going to work for the libyan government, even I, one of the most qualified, would be reconsidering law school!"
"healthcare's been in the news lately, all the people who want to be lawyers and are highly qualified will want to do healthcare"
"well, actually they'll go to grad schools...but related to healthcare, because I've heard of that"
"dude, it's simple econ. it's so simple, even i get it...but you guys apparently don't...you guys must not be able to understand simple econ."


read through that, and then keep trying to explain why you are correct.

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robotclubmember
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Re: Why GPA medians will continue to rise

Postby robotclubmember » Thu Jul 14, 2011 7:29 pm

chimp wrote:
I agree with you wholeheartedly, I just feel like afitouri grossly oversimplified the issue and made too many assumptions. Trust me, I wish his/her assumptions were valid, but - as far as I can tell - they generally are not.


to be fair he's a new poster. they aren't bad impulses, but they assume that people are rational actors, lol, like was noted above. and they really aren't. there is a lot of absurdity in the structure of the legal market that is rarely assumed by outsiders, and rarely questioned by insiders.

icpb
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Re: Why GPA medians will continue to rise

Postby icpb » Thu Jul 14, 2011 7:32 pm

People on TLS routinely underestimate the difficulty of securing 3.9+ at Ivies. I would think getting 3.9+ would not be easy even at Brown, let alone Dartmouth, Princeton, and Cornell.

afitouri
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Re: Why GPA medians will continue to rise

Postby afitouri » Thu Jul 14, 2011 9:51 pm

dkt4 wrote:
afitouri wrote:So is your trolling.


here's a break down of your posts...

"i disagree, law school GPAs are going to fall"
"the market for lawyers is dropping"
"the best qualified people won't want to be lawyers"
"if i wasn't going to work for the libyan government, even I, one of the most qualified, would be reconsidering law school!"
"healthcare's been in the news lately, all the people who want to be lawyers and are highly qualified will want to do healthcare"
"well, actually they'll go to grad schools...but related to healthcare, because I've heard of that"
"dude, it's simple econ. it's so simple, even i get it...but you guys apparently don't...you guys must not be able to understand simple econ."


read through that, and then keep trying to explain why you are correct.


lmao. Way to put words in my mouth.

==So, yes, I said that after 3 years or so law school GPAs will peak and begin to fall from there.
==We've all seen the news that the market for lawyers is dropping.
==I never said I was most qualified. Never even taken the LSAT. However, my passion for my country does force me to stick to a legal career. Otherwise, I'd switch.

==Healthcare is on track to become a fourth of our entire GDP soon. I have 2 friends who have decided to become Physician's Assistants for 80k/year and only a masters needed. I have another friend who is studying Pharmacology in a 3 year program and expects a 100k/year + salary afterwards. Why wouldn't others do this? I would. Even being a nurse now gets you 60k+ a year with some experience.

==Additionally, healthcare isn't the only opportunity. How about accounting, engineering, finance, psychiatry, chemistry? This is what I mean with other grad schools. Chemical engineering now boasts an average of 90k/year first job after a bachelors. Chemical engineering bachelors can also easily transition to the pharmaceutical industry, or to a career in medicine.

==Supply and demand. When demand increases, then with time supply will soon increase until the two reach equilibrium. When demand decreases, then supply will soon decrease. When prices rise, quantity demanded decreases, and then supply will soon decrease. And so on.

When the cost of law school rises, the quantity of people demanding law school will decrease. Costs come in many forms, not just monetary ones. One cost is foregoing a return on investment. Thus, if students begin finding that law school is not producing a sufficient return on investment, fewer people will want to go to law school. If people begin finding that others are still in debt after years of law work, or that people with law degrees are unemployed, then there will be less demand for a law degree. Why do you think schools with strong English programs aren't sought after? Because no one gets paid with an English degree and the word has already gotten around. Once the word gets around that law is declining, the same thing will happen.

And what happens when demand decreases? Either prices fall, or supplies decrease, or both. This means that either law schools will have to lower their prices, or they will have to lower their requisites, or they will have to close entirely. Most schools would never consider lowering tuition, so most likely they will lower requisites but maintain tuition.

That is my point.

Now, the valid counterpoint to this might have been "yes but grade inflation is becoming so strong that in spite of decreased demand for law schools, they will still be able to remain stringent on GPA requirements because UG schools are inflating grades at such a high rate."

To which I would say that is definitely possible and maybe we will see.

dkt4
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Re: Why GPA medians will continue to rise

Postby dkt4 » Fri Jul 15, 2011 2:28 am

stop trying.




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