Why GPA medians will continue to rise Forum

[bdubs]

Grade inflation continues to rise year over year.

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/ ... inflation/

[09042014]

Grade inflation continues to rise year over year.

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/ ... inflation/

Some law schools just figured out that using both types of splitters you can game the system.

A bunch of 165/3.9 and 3.1/170s = 3.9/170

[bdubs]

They just won't need as many splitters when the average student's grades continue to go up. I think this is the reason why top schools (YS and potentially H) are starting to consider undergrad pedrigree more in distinguishing between numerically qualified candidates. Someone yesterday posted a story from the Yale student newspaper about the large fraction of ivy league undergrads that attend YLS.

[09042014]

They just won't need as many splitters when the average student's grades continue to go up. I think this is the reason why top schools (YS and potentially H) are starting to consider undergrad pedrigree more in distinguishing between numerically qualified candidates. Someone yesterday posted a story from the Yale student newspaper about the large fraction of ivy league undergrads that attend YLS.

Because a lot of the people who can score high enough on standardized tests go to Ivys, because they scored well on standardized tests. Also Ivy league schools, with an exception or two are some of the most grade inflated schools around.

You have to be stupid and aggressively lazy to get below a 3.0 there.

[yngblkgifted]

They just won't need as many splitters when the average student's grades continue to go up. I think this is the reason why top schools (YS and potentially H) are starting to consider undergrad pedrigree more in distinguishing between numerically qualified candidates. Someone yesterday posted a story from the Yale student newspaper about the large fraction of ivy league undergrads that attend YLS.

Correlation not causation bro.

[bdubs]

They just won't need as many splitters when the average student's grades continue to go up. I think this is the reason why top schools (YS and potentially H) are starting to consider undergrad pedrigree more in distinguishing between numerically qualified candidates. Someone yesterday posted a story from the Yale student newspaper about the large fraction of ivy league undergrads that attend YLS.

Because a lot of the people who can score high enough on standardized tests go to Ivys, because they scored well on standardized tests. Also Ivy league schools, with an exception or two are some of the most grade inflated schools around.

You have to be stupid and aggressively lazy to get below a 3.0 there.

Agreed, it all feeds into the increasing median GPAs at top schools.

[ihhwap1]

.

[Samara]

From what I understand, law schools care more about the relative grade inflation at a school vs. the school's "prestige."

Say Student A has a 3.9 at Yale but the median GPA is 3.7. So maybe he/she is in like the 60th percentile.
Now say Student B has a 3.9 at Podunk University but the median GPA is 3.3. So he/she is in like the 95th percentile.

I believe Student B's GPA would come across as more impressive because of the relative grade inflation of the school. But I'm not sure where I read that.

I think the applicability of that, unfortunately, is very limited. Rankings stats are based on numbers, irrespective of class rank. The Podunk student may be more impressive, but YLS still won't take them. The Podunk kid could be in the 99th percentile with a 3.8 and the Yale kid still gets in. This may help explain the preponderance of grade-inflated Ivy students there...

[09042014]

From what I understand, law schools care more about the relative grade inflation at a school vs. the school's "prestige."

Say Student A has a 3.9 at Yale but the median GPA is 3.7. So maybe he/she is in like the 60th percentile.
Now say Student B has a 3.9 at Podunk University but the median GPA is 3.3. So he/she is in like the 95th percentile.

I believe Student B's GPA would come across as more impressive because of the relative grade inflation of the school. But I'm not sure where I read that.

I think the applicability of that, unfortunately, is very limited. Rankings stats are based on numbers, irrespective of class rank. The Podunk student may be more impressive, but YLS still won't take them. The Podunk kid could be in the 99th percentile with a 3.8 and the Yale kid still gets in. This may help explain the preponderance of grade-inflated Ivy students there...

This makes no sense.

[WestOfTheRest]

Moot point. GPA can only rise so high. Who cares.

[WSJ_Law]

Disagree.

3.9 LSDAS HYP ~ 3.9 LSDAS Podunk because USNWR doesn't discriminate. They may also look to other transcript features like major (hard sciences vs. Poli.Sci/Communications), grade trending, etc. HLS/YLS may discriminate because they can, but others will not.

In any event: Rarely is it the case that UG prestige is the deciding factor over other more pertinent softs (like PS/DS/YLS250/W.E./LORs/TFA/Military Service/NCAA Athletics/Leadership credentials/etc.).

[ihhwap1]

.

[WestOfTheRest]

Disagree.

3.9 LSDAS HYP ~ 3.9 LSDAS Podunk because USNWR doesn't discriminate. They may also look to other transcript features like major (hard sciences vs. Poli.Sci/Communications), grade trending, etc. HLS/YLS may discriminate because they can, but others will not.

In any event: Rarely is it the case that UG prestige is the deciding factor over other more pertinent softs (like PS/DS/YLS250/W.E./LORs/TFA/Military Service/NCAA Athletics/Leadership credentials/etc.).

This.

My point was that, everything else being equal, if Student A and B are both 3.9/170, with Yale having massive grade inflation and Podunk U having one of the hardest grading scales in the county, Student B's GPA is probably more impressive. At least, that's what I've read. Will it be a deciding factor in admissions? Probably not. WSJ Law is right, there are other more pertinent soft factors. Just thought I'd insert my $.02

But yeah moot point. If grade inflation continues to rise, I guess it only makes sense that law school medians will rise as well.

Do you think that'll make the LSAT weight even more important in the future? If everyone is applying with a 4.0, then I'd have to believe that the LSAT will probably be even more deciding than it is already. That's the whole point of standardized testing, really. Putting everyone on an equal playing field.

LSAT percentiles will rise as people put more emphasis on them. We're just starting to see where LSAT medians have risen to as a result of ABA not averaging anymore.

[09042014]

I think we've already gotten to the equilibrium point in LSAT medians after the retake policy.

There aren't enough 171's to go around for the lower t14. Though Boalt, Michigan and Cornell could see some gains.

[WestOfTheRest]

I think we've already gotten to the equilibrium point in LSAT medians after the retake policy.

There aren't enough 171's to go around for the lower t14. Though Boalt, Michigan and Cornell could see some gains.

Agreed. The last two cycles have been relatively constant numbers wise for the T14.

[afitouri]

I disagree with this.

Because the market for lawyers is dropping, without doubt there will soon be significantly fewer people interested in law school. Within three years time people will realize that law school isn't the path to a sure job that it used to be and more of the best qualified people will elect to pursue different degrees.

So, more of those with the highest GPAs will no longer be seeking law schools. And the more people who would have otherwise scored higher on LSATs will be seeking different careers. This will probably lower law school costs too.

[09042014]

I disagree with this.

Because the market for lawyers is dropping, without doubt there will soon be significantly fewer people interested in law school. Within three years time people will realize that law school isn't the path to a sure job that it used to be and more of the best qualified people will elect to pursue different degrees.

So, more of those with the highest GPAs will no longer be seeking law schools. And the more people who would have otherwise scored higher on LSATs will be seeking different careers. This will probably lower law school costs too.

Exhibit 1 A on why assuming the market is filled with rational actors is stupid.

[WestOfTheRest]

I disagree with this.

Because the market for lawyers is dropping, without doubt there will soon be significantly fewer people interested in law school. Within three years time people will realize that law school isn't the path to a sure job that it used to be and more of the best qualified people will elect to pursue different degrees.

So, more of those with the highest GPAs will no longer be seeking law schools. And the more people who would have otherwise scored higher on LSATs will be seeking different careers. This will probably lower law school costs too.

This may have little to no effect on top schools. Not to mention that applications rise during hard economic times, and it appears that the hard times are not over yet.

[afitouri]

I disagree with this.

Because the market for lawyers is dropping, without doubt there will soon be significantly fewer people interested in law school. Within three years time people will realize that law school isn't the path to a sure job that it used to be and more of the best qualified people will elect to pursue different degrees.

So, more of those with the highest GPAs will no longer be seeking law schools. And the more people who would have otherwise scored higher on LSATs will be seeking different careers. This will probably lower law school costs too.

This may have little to no effect on top schools. Not to mention that applications rise during hard economic times, and it appears that the hard times are not over yet.

Temporarily. But on the long term, families will be unable to afford the cost.

To the poster above: No one is assuming the market is filled with rational actors. I am assuming though that with time, *more of* those who performed exceptionally in their undergrad will discover that a legal career is not the best option.

Even I myself am discovering that now and am wondering whether I should reconsider. If I didn't have government ambitions in Libya, I would.

Additionally, many people pay for these schools on loans from the government. The schools are abhorrently expensive. If people are not finding very high paying jobs out of school, then it will become in the interests of the government to impose restrictions on the schools to ensure that those students who take loans are taking an amount they will be later capable of repaying; as is happening with for-profit universities currently.

This is my perspective. Unless the economy significantly improves, then after about 3 years legal careers will no longer be as highly sought after.

If we still haven't thoroughly reformed healthcare by that time, then the best and brightest will be seeking overpaid healthcare positions.

[KevinP]

Just some data I thought is interesting. Doesn't have to do with the GPA but with the LSAT.
--ImageRemoved--

http://lsac.org/LSACResources/Publicati ... EC2010.pdf

[cinephile]

This is my perspective. Unless the economy significantly improves, then after about 3 years legal careers will no longer be as highly sought after.

I don't understand what you're trying to say. If the economy doesn't improve, then where are these potential law school applicants going to go? If there aren't more decent paying jobs being created, then why wouldn't they take a chance on law school, which at least has the potential of providing a middle class existence?

[afitouri]

This is my perspective. Unless the economy significantly improves, then after about 3 years legal careers will no longer be as highly sought after.

I don't understand what you're trying to say. If the economy doesn't improve, then where are these potential law school applicants going to go? If there aren't more decent paying jobs being created, then why wouldn't they take a chance on law school, which at least has the potential of providing a middle class existence?

*Some of them* will enter different fields. There are a lot of available grad school programs. One of which is the medical field: physicians assistant, pharmacology, chemical engineering, etc.

[cinephile]

This is my perspective. Unless the economy significantly improves, then after about 3 years legal careers will no longer be as highly sought after.

I don't understand what you're trying to say. If the economy doesn't improve, then where are these potential law school applicants going to go? If there aren't more decent paying jobs being created, then why wouldn't they take a chance on law school, which at least has the potential of providing a middle class existence?

*Some of them* will enter different fields. There are a lot of available grad school programs. One of which is the medical field: physicians assistant, pharmacology, chemical engineering, etc.

But those programs are generally filled by a different type of person than the type who goes to law school. Is the argument here that students with high GPAs in poli-sci are going to go into medicine?

[bdubs]

Moot point. GPA can only rise so high. Who cares.

Those who have outdated underinflated GPAs, those who are entering undergrad with the thought of potentially attending law school, and people who were too lazy to do as well as the upcoming "average" student.

My point was that I'm guessing that the rising tide is going to lift all, or most, of the GPA boats. The lower T14 still has medians below 3.7, I think those may go up closer to 3.8 soon.

[09042014]

Moot point. GPA can only rise so high. Who cares.

Those who have outdated underinflated GPAs, those who are entering undergrad with the thought of potentially attending law school, and people who were too lazy to do as well as the upcoming "average" student.

My point was that I'm guessing that the rising tide is going to lift all, or most, of the GPA boats. The lower T14 still has medians below 3.7, I think those may go up closer to 3.8 soon.

Eh the number of people who have old GPAs is pretty small. Who it really hurts is people at schools who don't inflate GPA. 3.8 is extremely high at many schools.