An Analysis of the Lawyer Surplus

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areyouinsane
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Re: An Analysis of the Lawyer Surplus

Postby areyouinsane » Thu Jun 30, 2011 11:43 am

I think the whole T14 or don't go thing is a little silly. I think that people need to be more informed about job placement and salary statistics than they are but there are some good options down the list, especially good regional schools. The T3 from my home state is still placing pretty well in state. That being said there are some lower ranked school that don't place well anywhere and students still attend, a lack on information.

Overall I agree with Robot that people (those not on this site) need to be more informed about their law school decision. I think his doom and gloom assessment is a little overboard, though. I suspect he is working hard to make the job marked better for the rest of us though so hats off.



Well written, but dead wrong. Check this out:


http://www.abajournal.com/magazine/arti ... digm_shift

An important quote:


“The biggest problem,” says Ury, “is that ordinary citizens cannot afford to hire a lawyer. The bread and butter of small firm practices are criminal defense work, wills and trusts, leases, closings and divorces. Yet in Connecticut, 80 to 85 percent of divorces have a self-represented party because most families can’t afford to hire one lawyer, let alone two. Nearly 90 percent of criminal cases are self-represented or by a public defender because families can’t scrape together a retainer.”


As I've said on numerous other threads, the idea of making $$$ as a solo schmuck is a pipedream. Kids, these stats are from freaking CT, one of the richest states in the US. It's much worse elsewhere. People have no $$$ to piss away on shitlaw. And why should they? You can go online and handle most of your own legal problems with a few mouse-clicks.

Biglaw or bust, kids.

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minnbills
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Re: An Analysis of the Lawyer Surplus

Postby minnbills » Thu Jun 30, 2011 11:50 am

robotclubmember wrote:
minnbills wrote:Things are bad in the legal market. Many people aren't going to find work. So make smart choices. Don't go to a poor school in your region. Don't take on a lot of debt if you're not going to an elite school. So be careful, but for god's sake this apocalypse attitude is uncalled for.


I don't get why you are saying pretty much exactly what I am saying, but framing it as if we are in some kind of disagreement?? I'm not "gnashing my teeth and pounding my feet," lol. I don't care how many times your grandpa walked 18 miles in the snow uphill both ways to get to school. We're saying the same thing. Except that I'm stating it rationally, and you are demeaning it for being an apocalypse attitude and then rephrasing it to say the same thing.


Or maybe I was referring to the "scammed hard" et al posts?

:roll:

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fatduck
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Re: An Analysis of the Lawyer Surplus

Postby fatduck » Thu Jun 30, 2011 2:17 pm

areyouinsane wrote:Bigplumbing or bust, kids.

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Mick Haller
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Re: An Analysis of the Lawyer Surplus

Postby Mick Haller » Thu Jun 30, 2011 2:32 pm

what class rank do I need to land SA at a V20 Bigdookietruck Firm?

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fatduck
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Re: An Analysis of the Lawyer Surplus

Postby fatduck » Thu Jun 30, 2011 2:34 pm

Mick Haller wrote:what class rank do I need to land SA at a V20 Bigdookietruck Firm?

class rank? firm? why aren't you turning a wrench, asshole? stop using computers, for that matter.

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gwuorbust
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Re: An Analysis of the Lawyer Surplus

Postby gwuorbust » Thu Jun 30, 2011 3:12 pm

fatduck wrote:
areyouinsane wrote:Bigplumbing or bust, kids.


I'll settle for mid plumbing. Is this a reasonable goal with median goals?

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TatteredDignity
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Re: An Analysis of the Lawyer Surplus

Postby TatteredDignity » Thu Jun 30, 2011 3:19 pm

gwuorbust wrote:
fatduck wrote:
areyouinsane wrote:Bigplumbing or bust, kids.


I'll settle for mid plumbing. Is this a reasonable goal with median goals?


I'm sick and tired of people talking about the mythical mid-plumbing job market. Very few of these actually exist, most "mid-plumbing" positions are actually bigplumbing gigs in smaller plumbing markets.

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robotclubmember
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Re: An Analysis of the Lawyer Surplus

Postby robotclubmember » Thu Jun 30, 2011 3:32 pm

emciosn wrote:Read through the thread and I think this is the general rule of thumb:

Those who are in law school should generally try to convince those who are not in law school to not attend.

It's basic economics, we are trying to maximize our own utility by decreasing the amount of competition in the future. So in that sense Robot is doing it right.

I do not agree with his economic outlook. I think the economy is doing much better this year than it has over the last couple and will continue to get better. We were it a pretty deep hole so getting out takes time.

I think the whole T14 or don't go thing is a little silly. I think that people need to be more informed about job placement and salary statistics than they are but there are some good options down the list, especially good regional schools. The T3 from my home state is still placing pretty well in state. That being said there are some lower ranked school that don't place well anywhere and students still attend, a lack on information.

Overall I agree with Robot that people (those not on this site) need to be more informed about their law school decision. I think his doom and gloom assessment is a little overboard, though. I suspect he is working hard to make the job marked better for the rest of us though so hats off.


lol thx. but, i think that if law schools continue to produce JDs at the rate that they are, and if openings continue to be produced at the rate that they are, it will fundamentally change the nature of the legal profession for the worst in a way that will take a very long time to reverse. time to make partner will drastically increase, for those that make it to big law, the use of temps will increase as under-utilized lawyers are willing to work for less and less... the shift in supply demand EQ will reduce price (i.i., average salary). it's not a gimmick to dissuade people from going into the profession to better my prospects, it's to dissuade people because it's what i truly believe.

and our economy is in serious trouble. saying "it's better than it was when it was at its lowest point" isn't saying a lot, and the fact that it has improved doesn't mean we won't double dip. you're using historical data to claim that because it has gotten better, it will continue to get better. look at leading indicators, not lagging indicators, and you will see a large problem on the horizon. the US dollar is highly devalued, unemployment and home values are steady at post-crash levels and the deficit is absurd. in addition to a stagnant GDP, we have problems, and are precariously close to defaulting without raising the debt ceiling. the stimulus worked, in so far that about every job created cost $4,000,000 of stimulus money. considering how close we are to default, how much money we are bleeding in wars and entitlements, how hard unemployment has hit the youth in particular, yes we have problems, and if another economic setback occurs (for example, when unemployment benefits end for the 9% unemployed and they can't file for anymore extensions), what do we do? spend more money? there isn't anything left to spend. borrow more? we're on the edge of default. print out more dollars and reduce the interest rate? the interest rates can't go any lower and the dollar is already diluted to shit. face it, we're out of ammo. US will recover but it will be a slow recovery with more hurt to follow. trust me, i'd like to think it will get better.

i remember in my first year at [insert big four accounting firm here] when the stock market started to crash, everyone said it wasn't a big deal at first. i was the only kid in there saying that that the dow wouldn't bottom out until it hit 7,000 (it was still over 10,500 at the time). my insistence actually started annoying my co-workers. but it was so obvious i couldn't see how they couldn't see it. then it finally dipped under 7,000. and we never talked about it. i suspect they wanted to feel safe, that it wouldn't get that bad. then in the next six months, our office's audit and risk services staff was downsized by 30%. we should have all seen it coming but no one wanted to believe it. here we are again, at the brink of serious economic problems, and rather than people just acknowledging what is staring them straight in the face, they choose to get angry at the suggestion it's really that bad. the bottom line is, arithmetic still matters. and the math just doesn't add up.

EDIT - to add to this, i have to ask, have any of you seen your friends packing up their desks and told to leave, and watch them struggle to get a job for nine months with no one biting despite that they did nothing wrong, that you know they're good and talented people? and then sat there waiting for your head to be next on the chopping block? the worst part was they did the layoffs in waves. 10% now, 10% three months later, etc. you never felt safe after the layoffs cos you knew there could be more (and were). it's easy to insulate yourself from economic realities when you've never seen it, people.

lastly, my argument is only that it's a dubious choice for financial reasons, but personal reasons can legitimize attending law school anyways if you truly feel strong about it. people should do what they want, but understand that they might get bent over and told to grab their ankles when they enter (or attempt to enter) the job market.
Last edited by robotclubmember on Thu Jun 30, 2011 3:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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robotclubmember
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Re: An Analysis of the Lawyer Surplus

Postby robotclubmember » Thu Jun 30, 2011 3:32 pm

0LNewbie wrote:
gwuorbust wrote:
fatduck wrote:
areyouinsane wrote:Bigplumbing or bust, kids.


I'll settle for mid plumbing. Is this a reasonable goal with median goals?


I'm sick and tired of people talking about the mythical mid-plumbing job market. Very few of these actually exist, most "mid-plumbing" positions are actually bigplumbing gigs in smaller plumbing markets.


joke now, cry later

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fatduck
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Re: An Analysis of the Lawyer Surplus

Postby fatduck » Thu Jun 30, 2011 3:45 pm

robotclubmember wrote:lastly, my argument is only that it's a dubious choice for financial reasons, but personal reasons can legitimize attending law school anyways if you truly feel strong about it.

no, you're being foolish. you are making a mistake by going to law school. it's not too late to quit.

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robotclubmember
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Re: An Analysis of the Lawyer Surplus

Postby robotclubmember » Thu Jun 30, 2011 3:48 pm


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ahduth
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Re: An Analysis of the Lawyer Surplus

Postby ahduth » Thu Jun 30, 2011 3:48 pm

robotclubmember wrote:EDIT - to add to this, i have to ask, have any of you seen your friends packing up their desks and told to leave, and watch them struggle to get a job for nine months with no one biting despite that they did nothing wrong, that you know they're good and talented people? and then sat there waiting for your head to be next on the chopping block? the worst part was they did the layoffs in waves. 10% now, 10% three months later, etc. you never felt safe after the layoffs cos you knew there could be more (and were). it's easy to insulate yourself from economic realities when you've never seen it, people.


I think robotclubmember should have TL;DR / executive summary section to his posts, but you're a fool if you ignore him.

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robotclubmember
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Re: An Analysis of the Lawyer Surplus

Postby robotclubmember » Thu Jun 30, 2011 3:51 pm

fatduck wrote:
robotclubmember wrote:lastly, my argument is only that it's a dubious choice for financial reasons, but personal reasons can legitimize attending law school anyways if you truly feel strong about it.

no, you're being foolish. you are making a mistake by going to law school. it's not too late to quit.


if i don't like law school, i'll fall back on my old career, or in all likelihood, worst case scenario is i end up being an attorney in big four. idk. i want to learn and not work for three years. i may very well decide to drop out in my first year if i don't like it, who knows. i don't know why you're bent on trivializing serious supply and demand imbalances in the field you are vying for employment in. the internet is a lulzy place to troll but can't you take it to the social lounge then?

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fatduck
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Re: An Analysis of the Lawyer Surplus

Postby fatduck » Thu Jun 30, 2011 3:53 pm

robotclubmember wrote:
fatduck wrote:
robotclubmember wrote:lastly, my argument is only that it's a dubious choice for financial reasons, but personal reasons can legitimize attending law school anyways if you truly feel strong about it.

no, you're being foolish. you are making a mistake by going to law school. it's not too late to quit.


if i don't like law school, i'll fall back on my old career, or in all likelihood, worst case scenario is i end up being an attorney in big four. idk. i want to learn and not work for three years. i may very well decide to drop out in my first year if i don't like it, who knows. i don't know why you're bent on trivializing serious supply and demand imbalances in the field you are vying for employment in. the internet is a lulzy place to troll but can't you take it to the social lounge then?

i'm sorry if my post seemed blunt, but you seem like a good enough guy and i'd hate to see you throw a lucrative career down the drain to chase dreams of being employed as a lawyer. it's foolish. worst case scenario is you are unemployed, and unemployable. you may not be able to fall back on your old career after law school. keep your job, and start working on a back-up plan in a manual trade, just in case.

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ahduth
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Re: An Analysis of the Lawyer Surplus

Postby ahduth » Thu Jun 30, 2011 3:56 pm

fatduck wrote:
robotclubmember wrote:
fatduck wrote:
robotclubmember wrote:lastly, my argument is only that it's a dubious choice for financial reasons, but personal reasons can legitimize attending law school anyways if you truly feel strong about it.

no, you're being foolish. you are making a mistake by going to law school. it's not too late to quit.


if i don't like law school, i'll fall back on my old career, or in all likelihood, worst case scenario is i end up being an attorney in big four. idk. i want to learn and not work for three years. i may very well decide to drop out in my first year if i don't like it, who knows. i don't know why you're bent on trivializing serious supply and demand imbalances in the field you are vying for employment in. the internet is a lulzy place to troll but can't you take it to the social lounge then?

i'm sorry if my post seemed blunt, but you seem like a good enough guy and i'd hate to see you throw a lucrative career down the drain to chase dreams of being employed as a lawyer. it's foolish. worst case scenario is you are unemployed, and unemployable. you may not be able to fall back on your old career after law school. keep your job, and start working on a back-up plan in a manual trade, just in case.


I'm skeptical. The guy has Big 4 experience. Who would you rather hire - him, or some Poli Sci grad?

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fatduck
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Re: An Analysis of the Lawyer Surplus

Postby fatduck » Thu Jun 30, 2011 3:58 pm

ahduth wrote:I'm skeptical. The guy has Big 4 experience. Who would you rather hire - him, or some Poli Sci grad?

why hire either when you can hire someone with Big 4 legal experience?

eta: i'm not saying he WILL be unemployed/unemployable. obviously no one can know that. but it's definitely a possibility, and the situation will be even worse considering the additional educational debt (which, even with a good scholarship, can be quite a burden). it's a huge gamble, and EV is probably negative for someone working at E&Y right now.

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ahduth
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Re: An Analysis of the Lawyer Surplus

Postby ahduth » Thu Jun 30, 2011 4:01 pm

fatduck wrote:
ahduth wrote:I'm skeptical. The guy has Big 4 experience. Who would you rather hire - him, or some Poli Sci grad?

why hire either when you can hire someone with Big 4 legal experience?


Because there aren't that many of them to hire.

I guess my point was that if the legal industry is becoming more of a skilled profession and less of a trade (per the ABA article linked above), people like him are more valuable than not.

Doesn't make him immune to industry pressures, but he's on the right side of the line from where I sit.

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Mick Haller
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Re: An Analysis of the Lawyer Surplus

Postby Mick Haller » Thu Jun 30, 2011 4:06 pm

fatduck wrote:
ahduth wrote:I'm skeptical. The guy has Big 4 experience. Who would you rather hire - him, or some Poli Sci grad?

why hire either when you can hire someone with Big 4 legal experience?

eta: i'm not saying he WILL be unemployed/unemployable. obviously no one can know that. but it's definitely a possibility, and the situation will be even worse considering the additional educational debt (which, even with a good scholarship, can be quite a burden). it's a huge gamble, and EV is probably negative for someone working at E&Y right now.


+1

it's time for robot to take his own advice.

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emciosn
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Re: An Analysis of the Lawyer Surplus

Postby emciosn » Thu Jun 30, 2011 4:10 pm

I get what you are saying Robot, things are bad. I guess I don't think they are quite as bad as you do. Government spending is absolutely out of control. Something needs to change but its hard to say what, so many are dependent on the raging river of government funds right now. Obviously the military spending, etc doesn't help either.

I don't think it has to be biglaw or bust. My home state is not home to really any firms that any of you would consider biglaw, and there are a number of attorneys making money. That being said I would not in any way advocate going to a low ranked degree mill, you will be unemployed. I think there are some good options in t1/t2, you just need all the correct information.

Robots cautionary tone is warranted, maybe just a little to extreme for me. On a side note I heard someone say the other day that if they didn't get a big firm job, they could just fall back on government work. That is not smart. State work is just as hard to get, they are essentially only hiring to replace retirees, and not even then sometimes. My state is doing relatively well financially and government work is still tricky to find right now...

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ThomasMN
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Re: An Analysis of the Lawyer Surplus

Postby ThomasMN » Thu Jun 30, 2011 4:15 pm

I figure I'll just answer this as succinctly as possible.

There is basically no field that is great to get in at the moment. I know people in just about every profession that are feeling the squeeze at the moment. Lawyer, plumber, construction, etc. you are basically screwed. There are a few odd professions that people with the right physical talents can get into that are actually decent, such as welding. Guess what though, I know lots of smart people that SUCK at those professions. So regardless, you can be a pessimist and put the barrel in your mouth right now or just be a stable human being and not fly off the hat at everything.

Edit: Just to tag this on. Things are even worse right now if you live in the wrong area and don't / can't relocate for some reason.

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robotclubmember
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Re: An Analysis of the Lawyer Surplus

Postby robotclubmember » Thu Jun 30, 2011 4:19 pm

Mick Haller wrote:
fatduck wrote:
ahduth wrote:I'm skeptical. The guy has Big 4 experience. Who would you rather hire - him, or some Poli Sci grad?

why hire either when you can hire someone with Big 4 legal experience?

eta: i'm not saying he WILL be unemployed/unemployable. obviously no one can know that. but it's definitely a possibility, and the situation will be even worse considering the additional educational debt (which, even with a good scholarship, can be quite a burden). it's a huge gamble, and EV is probably negative for someone working at E&Y right now.


+1

it's time for robot to take his own advice.


EDIT - to remove specifics

i'm not sucking my own dick here, just saying, i put serious forethought into my career: did a lot of research, actually ran financial analysis, built a career i can return to, hustled on 0L networking. if i thought everyone else going to law school put as much energy into making sure the decision was sound, this wouldn't be a discussion.
Last edited by robotclubmember on Sat Jul 02, 2011 5:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Mick Haller
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Re: An Analysis of the Lawyer Surplus

Postby Mick Haller » Thu Jun 30, 2011 4:20 pm

Most people that go to law school are still going to land on their feet at some kind of bs job at a local bank or at an insurance company or something making like 45-50k. Not glamorous, but better work atmosphere and work-life balance than being a 2 a.m. plumber. IBR will cap their loan payments at 10% and everything will be okay.

Robot take a deep breath and relax.

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robotclubmember
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Re: An Analysis of the Lawyer Surplus

Postby robotclubmember » Thu Jun 30, 2011 4:24 pm

Mick Haller wrote:Most people that go to law school are still going to land on their feet at some kind of bs job at a local bank or at an insurance company or something making like 45-50k. Not glamorous, but better work atmosphere and work-life balance than being a 2 a.m. plumber. IBR will cap their loan payments at 10% and everything will be okay.

Robot take a deep breath and relax.


sure i'm relaxed, but is that financially the right decision? 7 years of debt and lost income to make $50K, the same a skilled laborer makes with far less barrier to entry and opportunity cost? and there is a much greater risk of completely striking out.

appreciate my argument for what it is: it is not a financially sound decision. if people are going to work in those jobs, they should get trained for those jobs. the legal field is over-saturated.

i am here to bring the doom. shortly after, gloom will be provided in the reception hall. enjoy.

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NR3C1
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Re: An Analysis of the Lawyer Surplus

Postby NR3C1 » Thu Jun 30, 2011 4:24 pm

ThomasMN wrote:I figure I'll just answer this as succinctly as possible.

There is basically no field that is great to get in at the moment. I know people in just about every profession that are feeling the squeeze at the moment. Lawyer, plumber, construction, etc. you are basically screwed. There are a few odd professions that people with the right physical talents can get into that are actually decent, such as welding. Guess what though, I know lots of smart people that SUCK at those professions. So regardless, you can be a pessimist and put the barrel in your mouth right now or just be a stable human being and not fly off the hat at everything.

Edit: Just to tag this on. Things are even worse right now if you live in the wrong area and don't / can't relocate for some reason.

Not true. Computer Science is booming at the moment, and I am loving it!

http://www.npr.org/2011/03/04/134236010 ... -tech-geek

EDIT: After all, we write the programs that make the services of lawyers (and many other professionals) obsolete.
Last edited by NR3C1 on Thu Jun 30, 2011 4:28 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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fatduck
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Re: An Analysis of the Lawyer Surplus

Postby fatduck » Thu Jun 30, 2011 4:26 pm

Mick Haller wrote:Most people that go to law school are still going to land on their feet at some kind of bs job at a local bank or at an insurance company or something making like 45-50k. Not glamorous, but better work atmosphere and work-life balance than being a 2 a.m. plumber. IBR will cap their loan payments at 10% and everything will be okay.

Robot take a deep breath and relax.

america is collapsing, IBR will dry up, barricade your windows and load your rifles, etc. your real mistake was not joining the army in high school, like i did. i'm just going to law school now so i can hang out on a college campus for three years until the collapse.




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