Anyone expect an underperformance of medians next cycle?

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sanetruth
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Anyone expect an underperformance of medians next cycle?

Postby sanetruth » Thu Mar 24, 2011 2:13 pm

In Anna Ivey's law school admissions book, she writes that medians at top schools are periodically boosted as applications rise. They then, of course, recede as applications fall. At the time of her writing (I have the 2004/2005 copy), the most recent example of this was the 2002/2003 cycle. Medians, reflective of that cycle, rose to numbers that are in fact very similar to the medians we're seeing now.

So, since it has been stated (in numerous places) that the 2008-2010 cycles saw an increase in applicants, and medians at most top schools have been rising, but this most recent cycle saw a decrease in applicants, do you think we can expect medians to drop after this cycle or the next one?

What I mean by an 'underperformance of medians' is that if a decrease in applicants is indeed happening, and this decrease does indeed mean medians will fall, at some point here on TLS or LSN we will see applicants consistently being accepted at schools where they fall below median as schools adjust to the new pools. This does not seem to be happening this cycle, so if we're going to believe the statistics coming out of the WSJ and other sources, perhaps it will happen next? Thoughts??
Last edited by sanetruth on Fri Mar 25, 2011 1:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.

pbutta123
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Re: Anyone expect an underperformance of medians next cycle?

Postby pbutta123 » Thu Mar 24, 2011 3:06 pm

Highly doubt any of the t1 will drop their medians but that'd be nice.

Sandro
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Re: Anyone expect an underperformance of medians next cycle?

Postby Sandro » Thu Mar 24, 2011 3:34 pm

I think it really depends on the school, some schools get a ton of apps and a decrease wont see their medians drop. Some schools fight tooth and nail to achieve their median and dont have much room to wiggle with. You can see this with some schools who admit anyone with an LSAT at or above a certain point, and others who admit most people with that lsat but still end up waitlisting a bunch.

sighsigh
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Re: Anyone expect an underperformance of medians next cycle?

Postby sighsigh » Thu Mar 24, 2011 8:45 pm

I don't see how medians can't drop. 170k took the LSAT last cycle, and this cycle 155 took it. There are less 180's, 179's...etc. to go around.

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Patriot1208
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Re: Anyone expect an underperformance of medians next cycle?

Postby Patriot1208 » Thu Mar 24, 2011 9:26 pm

sighsigh wrote:I don't see how medians can't drop. 170k took the LSAT last cycle, and this cycle 155 took it. There are less 180's, 179's...etc. to go around.

This isn't necessaily true, the percentiles could easily just keep moving up as they have been.

icpb
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Re: Anyone expect an underperformance of medians next cycle?

Postby icpb » Thu Mar 24, 2011 10:13 pm

sighsigh wrote:I don't see how medians can't drop. 170k took the LSAT last cycle, and this cycle 155 took it. There are less 180's, 179's...etc. to go around.


Law schools are reducing class sizes.

firemed
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Re: Anyone expect an underperformance of medians next cycle?

Postby firemed » Thu Mar 24, 2011 11:08 pm

icpb wrote:
Law schools are reducing class sizes.


Source?

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Patriot1208
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Re: Anyone expect an underperformance of medians next cycle?

Postby Patriot1208 » Fri Mar 25, 2011 10:13 am

firemed wrote:
icpb wrote:
Law schools are reducing class sizes.


Source?

I do remember seeing an article about it but it was only talking about some TTT's

FiveSermon
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Re: Anyone expect an underperformance of medians next cycle?

Postby FiveSermon » Fri Mar 25, 2011 1:56 pm

Only at Berkeley.

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LiveFreeOrLaw
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Re: Anyone expect an underperformance of medians next cycle?

Postby LiveFreeOrLaw » Fri Mar 25, 2011 2:17 pm

Patriot1208 wrote:
sighsigh wrote:I don't see how medians can't drop. 170k took the LSAT last cycle, and this cycle 155 took it. There are less 180's, 179's...etc. to go around.

This isn't necessaily true, the percentiles could easily just keep moving up as they have been.


????????

sighsigh
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Re: Anyone expect an underperformance of medians next cycle?

Postby sighsigh » Fri Mar 25, 2011 6:22 pm

Patriot1208 wrote:
sighsigh wrote:I don't see how medians can't drop. 170k took the LSAT last cycle, and this cycle 155 took it. There are less 180's, 179's...etc. to go around.

This isn't necessaily true, the percentiles could easily just keep moving up as they have been.


That would have little effect in just one year.

Yes, if class sizes drop then there might not be a drop in medians for those schools. I doubt many schools have dropped class sizes though.

But really, the effect on medians is already obvious, just by looking at the LSN graph. Last cycle, HLS only took people with GPA's of ~3.9 if they had 176+ (even 175's got waitlsted or rejected). This cycle, they have taken a few 173's and even a 172.

icpb
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Re: Anyone expect an underperformance of medians next cycle?

Postby icpb » Fri Mar 25, 2011 7:14 pm

sighsigh wrote:
Patriot1208 wrote:
sighsigh wrote:I don't see how medians can't drop. 170k took the LSAT last cycle, and this cycle 155 took it. There are less 180's, 179's...etc. to go around.

This isn't necessaily true, the percentiles could easily just keep moving up as they have been.


That would have little effect in just one year.

Yes, if class sizes drop then there might not be a drop in medians for those schools. I doubt many schools have dropped class sizes though.

But really, the effect on medians is already obvious, just by looking at the LSN graph. Last cycle, HLS only took people with GPA's of ~3.9 if they had 176+ (even 175's got waitlsted or rejected). This cycle, they have taken a few 173's and even a 172.


The 175+ last year who got rejected or wait-listed may have had taken the LSAT multiple times, and HLS prefers applicants who make the shot their first time. Also, LSN is good for you to get a sense of if a law school would admit people with numbers similar to yours, but LSN statistics don't match general admissions statistics.

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yuzu
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Re: Anyone expect an underperformance of medians next cycle?

Postby yuzu » Fri Mar 25, 2011 8:09 pm

I think the best metric will be waitlist movement. Most schools admit based on their traditional medians, so if we see a lot of waitlist movement then it seems likely the schools will underperform their medians.

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LiveFreeOrLaw
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Re: Anyone expect an underperformance of medians next cycle?

Postby LiveFreeOrLaw » Fri Mar 25, 2011 8:21 pm

% of what total number decreased?

If there are 20,000 applicants, as opposed to 30,000, with 167+, then there still would not be shortage of high #s to fill all the top schools.




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