unemployment odds

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Odds you can't make $100k (see post below)

0-1%
2
7%
2-3%
2
7%
4-5%
2
7%
6-10%
3
11%
higher than 10%
18
67%
 
Total votes: 27

lawskyandhutch
Posts: 91
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2010 4:01 am

unemployment odds

Postby lawskyandhutch » Mon Mar 07, 2011 2:52 am

If someone is in the top half of the Columbia Law '14 gpa distribution (let's say 60th percentile if you want to be precise), and he is a medium interviewee, what are the odds he would be unable to get a firm job paying at least $100k?

I'm trying to gauge whether I should go there at sticker price, but I don't have a sense of what my odds are of being "screwed" during the job hunt. Without that info, it's hard to make a reasonable choice.

lawskyandhutch
Posts: 91
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2010 4:01 am

Re: unemployment odds

Postby lawskyandhutch » Mon Mar 07, 2011 2:58 am

Also, I realize people don't literally know the answer to this question. I was just looking for people's best guess.

BeachandRun23
Posts: 328
Joined: Mon Dec 27, 2010 2:20 am

Re: unemployment odds

Postby BeachandRun23 » Mon Mar 07, 2011 3:12 am

Im not sure how any 0L on TLS is going to be able to tell you if it is 3% or 6% but im guessing top half at CCN should be pretty darn safe for biglaw. But who knows.

lawskyandhutch
Posts: 91
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2010 4:01 am

Re: unemployment odds

Postby lawskyandhutch » Mon Mar 07, 2011 6:07 am

Thanks everyone. If the results of the poll are correct (>10% chance), it should be enough to scare almost everyone away from law school. (Exception would be perhaps those at HYS or those with full rides at a top 20).

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KMaine
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Re: unemployment odds

Postby KMaine » Mon Mar 07, 2011 8:23 am

Why would that scare anybody away from law school, particularly somebody who would have a hard time getting a 30K a year job otherwise?

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Patriot1208
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Re: unemployment odds

Postby Patriot1208 » Mon Mar 07, 2011 8:59 am

the problem is your poll, who the fuck knows if that specific person has a 3%, 6%, or 12% chance of not getting hired. But, someone in the top 40% of columbia should be able to get biglaw and usually will.

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reasonable_man
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Re: unemployment odds

Postby reasonable_man » Mon Mar 07, 2011 9:09 am

This thread, its premise and the op serve as evidence that a great GPA and a strong LSAT score are not always indicative of intelligence. OP. Your chance of unemployment under the scenario presented is 11.13467%. That figure is entirely reliable. Best of luck.

Thread /

lawskyandhutch
Posts: 91
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2010 4:01 am

Re: unemployment odds

Postby lawskyandhutch » Mon Mar 07, 2011 9:30 am

Patriot: No one is making you guess. 3% and 12% are incredibly different, at least for a risk-averse person like me. 3% sounds fairly safe to me, whereas 12% sounds pretty terrible. Maybe you have different preferences.

reasonable_man: The idea is that I'd like people's best guesses. Obviously this is not particularly scientific.

I sometimes like to think in terms of numbers (e.g. probabilities). I prefer that to saying such and such is "likely" or "unlikely"--words that don't really tell us a whole lot when we want to make a decision.

rose711
Posts: 287
Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2011 11:57 pm

Re: unemployment odds

Postby rose711 » Mon Mar 07, 2011 9:40 am

Why don't you talk to the people at Columbia or ask current 2Ls and 3Ls what their experience is? Or do some research on firms hiring in the market you want to apply into after you graduate. Talk to people who are dealing with this question now.

You may also need to factor in the idea that no one can be sure what is happening with the economy - slow increase, fast increase, steady, down?

There is no sure thing here, but I think you know that which is why you are asking this question.

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reasonable_man
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Re: unemployment odds

Postby reasonable_man » Mon Mar 07, 2011 2:55 pm

lawskyandhutch wrote:Patriot: No one is making you guess. 3% and 12% are incredibly different, at least for a risk-averse person like me. 3% sounds fairly safe to me, whereas 12% sounds pretty terrible. Maybe you have different preferences.

reasonable_man: The idea is that I'd like people's best guesses. Obviously this is not particularly scientific.

I sometimes like to think in terms of numbers (e.g. probabilities). I prefer that to saying such and such is "likely" or "unlikely"--words that don't really tell us a whole lot when we want to make a decision.



Your asking people to vote on percentages ranging from 1 to 10% and it should be obvious that you aren't looking for a particularly scientific response?

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Hannibal
Posts: 2213
Joined: Mon Jul 12, 2010 12:00 pm

Re: unemployment odds

Postby Hannibal » Mon Mar 07, 2011 3:04 pm

Nobody knows what the economy for 2L OCI will be for the class of 2014. Nobody knows how it will impact Columbia specifically. Also, if you think 10% chance at 60th percentile is suicide, then you shouldn't go for 5% either since you shouldn't assume you'll be at 60th percentile. You sound really debt averse, take the money.

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robotclubmember
Posts: 743
Joined: Wed Sep 15, 2010 7:53 am

Re: unemployment odds

Postby robotclubmember » Mon Mar 07, 2011 3:13 pm

lawskyandhutch wrote:Patriot: No one is making you guess. 3% and 12% are incredibly different, at least for a risk-averse person like me. 3% sounds fairly safe to me, whereas 12% sounds pretty terrible. Maybe you have different preferences.

reasonable_man: The idea is that I'd like people's best guesses. Obviously this is not particularly scientific.

I sometimes like to think in terms of numbers (e.g. probabilities). I prefer that to saying such and such is "likely" or "unlikely"--words that don't really tell us a whole lot when we want to make a decision.


CLS is a great school and your chances are very good.

I remember your earlier thread about wanting to transfer from CLS to Harvard, I'm guessing because a 8.74% chance of making less than $100K is too painful to bear and you need to mitigate that down to 5.12%. You're taking the risk aversion thing too far. You should understand that this is not a normal question and normal people don't micro-manage their life to this level of detail, and even if they wanted to, they should understand that there is nothing we can answer for you you can't answer for yourself. Risk aversion to this level is common for lawyers, but not common for the most successful ones who make partners. Partners make deals, deals have tons of risk, at some point you'll need to become comfortable with it and trust your senses. If your senses are telling you that CLS is too risky of an investment, and you need validation that it's safe, with percentages, you have much, much bigger problems in life than whether you should go to CLS or not. This is too much.

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reasonable_man
Posts: 2200
Joined: Thu Feb 12, 2009 5:41 pm

Re: unemployment odds

Postby reasonable_man » Mon Mar 07, 2011 3:23 pm

robotclubmember wrote:
lawskyandhutch wrote:Patriot: No one is making you guess. 3% and 12% are incredibly different, at least for a risk-averse person like me. 3% sounds fairly safe to me, whereas 12% sounds pretty terrible. Maybe you have different preferences.

reasonable_man: The idea is that I'd like people's best guesses. Obviously this is not particularly scientific.

I sometimes like to think in terms of numbers (e.g. probabilities). I prefer that to saying such and such is "likely" or "unlikely"--words that don't really tell us a whole lot when we want to make a decision.


CLS is a great school and your chances are very good.

I remember your earlier thread about wanting to transfer from CLS to Harvard, I'm guessing because a 8.74% chance of making less than $100K is too painful to bear and you need to mitigate that down to 5.12%. You're taking the risk aversion thing too far. You should understand that this is not a normal question and normal people don't micro-manage their life to this level of detail, and even if they wanted to, they should understand that there is nothing we can answer for you you can't answer for yourself. Risk aversion to this level is common for lawyers, but not common for the most successful ones who make partners. Partners make deals, deals have tons of risk, at some point you'll need to become comfortable with it and trust your senses. If your senses are telling you that CLS is too risky of an investment, and you need validation that it's safe, with percentages, you have much, much bigger problems in life than whether you should go to CLS or not. This is too much.


Mostly agree. And frankly, if CLS is too risky for you, then I advise you get a job at the post office.

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Patriot1208
Posts: 7044
Joined: Tue May 18, 2010 11:28 am

Re: unemployment odds

Postby Patriot1208 » Mon Mar 07, 2011 3:30 pm

reasonable_man wrote:
robotclubmember wrote:
lawskyandhutch wrote:Patriot: No one is making you guess. 3% and 12% are incredibly different, at least for a risk-averse person like me. 3% sounds fairly safe to me, whereas 12% sounds pretty terrible. Maybe you have different preferences.

reasonable_man: The idea is that I'd like people's best guesses. Obviously this is not particularly scientific.

I sometimes like to think in terms of numbers (e.g. probabilities). I prefer that to saying such and such is "likely" or "unlikely"--words that don't really tell us a whole lot when we want to make a decision.


CLS is a great school and your chances are very good.

I remember your earlier thread about wanting to transfer from CLS to Harvard, I'm guessing because a 8.74% chance of making less than $100K is too painful to bear and you need to mitigate that down to 5.12%. You're taking the risk aversion thing too far. You should understand that this is not a normal question and normal people don't micro-manage their life to this level of detail, and even if they wanted to, they should understand that there is nothing we can answer for you you can't answer for yourself. Risk aversion to this level is common for lawyers, but not common for the most successful ones who make partners. Partners make deals, deals have tons of risk, at some point you'll need to become comfortable with it and trust your senses. If your senses are telling you that CLS is too risky of an investment, and you need validation that it's safe, with percentages, you have much, much bigger problems in life than whether you should go to CLS or not. This is too much.


Mostly agree. And frankly, if CLS is too risky for you, then I advise you get a job at the post office.


Fuck that, that shit is dangerous.

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Ty Webb
Posts: 517
Joined: Mon Nov 23, 2009 10:47 pm

Re: unemployment odds

Postby Ty Webb » Mon Mar 07, 2011 3:39 pm

The OP's horrible attempt at specifically quantifying something that cannot be and need not be quantified hurts my head. It gives propeller heads like myself a bad name.




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