chasgoose wrote:javancho wrote:dabbadon8 wrote:I feel as though the decrease will not make much of a difference. I think the reduction of test takes isn't going to be evenly distributed. I think most of the decrease will come out of from the those who wouldn't of scored a 170+
That all the decrease will come from 170+ takers and columbia will magically let me in.
For people as obsessive as you, you guys do lots of speculating and very little research. All the data you want can be found online. Look at December 2010 LSAC report:
http://www.lsac.org/LSACResources/Publi ... EC2010.pdf
On page 4 there is a table that summarizes the applicant pool (YTD 12/3/2010) from last year vs this year. As you can see, the distribution of LSATs is pretty much the same, and the only thing that has changed is the overall number of applicants. This year, the number of applicants seems to be tanking. So, if that trend continues AND school take about the same number of students (and they always do-that data is also online), then schools will have lower standards vs last year.
Based on those numbers I was far too generous in my earlier post... Based on the data for the class of 2013, 140 students with a 176+ went to Harvard, 51 went to Yale, 112 with a 175+ went to NYU, and 101 went to Columbia. That means that of the 567 applicants last year with a 175+, only 163 didn't go to one of those four schools. If there was around a 10% drop in applicants this year (and even assuming that that 10% drop doesn't affect 175+ scorers as much) that means that there will be somewhere around 500-525 (give or take) applicants with a 175+ this year. Since none of the schools are shrinking their class sizes significantly, that would imply that only 100-125 won't be attending those schools.
It wasn't 567 applicants with 175+ last year; it was 567 applicants last year by 12/3/10. Big difference. If you add up the total applicants as of 12/3/10 for Fall 2009, it is less than 30, 000 total applicants for the cycle. Though we know the total applicants (around 80, 000? the figure is on LSAC's site), so it is easy enough to approximate last year's distribution--with some possible bias, of course.
The other thing to keep in mind is that the numbers you cited for # of scorers is the minimum at schools. Yale has a minimum of 51 (or whatever) 176+ scorers; they might have 60 of them, or any number less than 100 (since the median was 173).