Predictions on how brutal this/next cycle will be? Forum

[whymeohgodno]

Just curious, since there was a surge in LSATs on 09-10 (and a smaller on this year)
Do you think this cycle will be harder than last year's? Or easier?
Do you think next year will be even harder than both, or a bit easier?

This cycle will be easier than last years. Next cycle will be easier or the same as this years (I'm leaning towards easier).

Odds are that anyone telling you otherwise is someone applying this cycle who is trying to preempt any rejections w/ an excuse (maybe subconsciously). But if there's no compelling reason for you to wait until next year, you might as well go this year. I don't think it's going to be a material difference

Is your only data for saying this cycle will be easier than lasts is because of the fewer number of LSAT takers?

It's based on that # + economy + employment + UG hiring + deep knowledge of last cycle + adcomm convos this since. No doubt it's going to be easier than last cycle (not that it matters since you cant go back and apply).. better question is between this years and next years.. and while I'd speculate that next year will be easier, I don't know enough to predict if its actually worth waiting

I don't really see why you would think the economy is that much better than last year. Or that there has been such a big change in employment.

If you could provide a more detailed post of why I would be grateful.

[dabomb75]

I don't have any further evidence or insights really but I would say that NYU's (and GULC's?) deans both predicting that this cycle will be easier is pretty decent evidence towards that fact

[whymeohgodno]

I don't have any further evidence or insights really but I would say that NYU's (and GULC's?) deans both predicting that this cycle will be easier is pretty decent evidence towards that fact

Where/when did they say this? Link please?

[r6_philly]

I don't really see why you would think the economy is that much better than last year. Or that there has been such a big change in employment.

If you could provide a more detailed post of why I would be grateful.

Personal observation: job market for new and experienced educated workers has been improving. Lower paying and non-skilled jobs are still sucking. I think people who are capable of earning decent income and capable of getting into law school are not as desperate as last year, and have more perceived options. 3 years of more schooling and a bunch a debt is not really that attractive unless it is the last resort. I see this cycle being easier , especially getting off waitlist in the spring time because I feel the yield across the board will be lower.

Plus, schools are now wise to know that people are just applying to more schools instead of having more applicants. We may actually see a decrease in total applicants and/or decrease in numerical quality of applicant pool for the above reason.

Anecdotal evidence: several professional/graduate student friends are getting jobs/better jobs instead of looking at more education. Some are pushing off applying until they can work a little bit (to save money, to get WE, to see how their career could turn out), some are rethinking/replanning all together.

[Fred_McGriff]

I don't really see why you would think the economy is that much better than last year. Or that there has been such a big change in employment.

http://finance.google.com/finance - there are lots of metrics you can track that would give reasonable support to his claim.

[bdubs]

The number of people articles, blog posts, and satirical youtube videos about the legal employment outlook should be enough to discourage a lot of speculative applications from applying this year. Some of those were out by commitment time last year, but I think the frequency and intensity of the information is increasing.

Also, what does everyone think about the increasing number of applications per applicant? Is this likely to increase YP across the board, or are adcomms going to let in more people expecting lower yields?

This year may have some issues with deferred admissions from last cycle too. It's really hard to tell based on a lot of tangential data points.

[r6_philly]

The number of people articles, blog posts, and satirical youtube videos about the legal employment outlook should be enough to discourage a lot of speculative applications from applying this year. Some of those were out by commitment time last year, but I think the frequency and intensity of the information is increasing.

Also, what does everyone think about the increasing number of applications per applicant? Is this likely to increase YP across the board, or are adcomms going to let in more people expecting lower yields?

This year may have some issues with deferred admissions from last cycle too. It's really hard to tell based on a lot of tangential data points.

I think most schools use actuaries to predict yields. Without accurate data we can't know what they will do. I think most schools will have to adjust strategies because of last year's final results (over admitting). That's why this year, applying early might be more crucial than ever.

[wwaideli]

The other factor in the increase of LSAT takers could be more multiple takers now that top score is taken rather than average. It was almost unheard of to have 3 or more scores previously and much fewer had 2. My guess is the same or slightly better this year for they cycle.

[whymeohgodno]

The other factor in the increase of LSAT takers could be more multiple takers now that top score is taken rather than average. It was almost unheard of to have 3 or more scores previously and much fewer had 2. My guess is the same or slightly better this year for they cycle.

Well this multiple LSAT change has been around for a few years now.

Also has there ever been a year within the last 5 or 6 where medians for schools across the board has dropped or stayed the same relatively?