Predictions on how brutal this/next cycle will be?

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pppokerface
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Predictions on how brutal this/next cycle will be?

Postby pppokerface » Mon Nov 01, 2010 2:16 am

Just curious, since there was a surge in LSATs on 09-10 (and a smaller on this year)
Do you think this cycle will be harder than last year's? Or easier?
Do you think next year will be even harder than both, or a bit easier?

whymeohgodno
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Re: Predictions on how brutal this/next cycle will be?

Postby whymeohgodno » Mon Nov 01, 2010 11:26 am

Patter shows us that most likely medians will rise at most schools or at least stay the same.

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pppokerface
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Re: Predictions on how brutal this/next cycle will be?

Postby pppokerface » Fri Nov 05, 2010 5:29 pm

http://lsac.org/LSACResources/Data/lsat ... stered.asp
There are less testtakers, I'm not sure if that means that the cycle will be a bit better than last year's
Any more opinions from other people?
Guess we gotta wait it out lol

ATR
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Re: Predictions on how brutal this/next cycle will be?

Postby ATR » Fri Nov 05, 2010 5:30 pm

pppokerface wrote:http://lsac.org/LSACResources/Data/lsats-administered.asp
There are less testtakers, I'm not sure if that means that the cycle will be a bit better than last year's
Any more opinions from other people?
Guess we gotta wait it out lol

Hmmm, that's interesting. Would not have expected that.

mikey101
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Re: Predictions on how brutal this/next cycle will be?

Postby mikey101 » Fri Nov 05, 2010 5:34 pm

When I visited NYU a few weeks ago Dean Kleinrock indicated that he believed this year would be slightly less competitive than last year because the general job market prospects were increasing ever so slightly.

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lzyovrachievr
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Re: Predictions on how brutal this/next cycle will be?

Postby lzyovrachievr » Fri Nov 05, 2010 5:35 pm

mikey101 wrote:When I visited NYU a few weeks ago Dean Kleinrock indicated that he believed this year would be slightly less competitive than last year because the general job market prospects were increasing ever so slightly.


I believe that Gtown said the same thing.

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northwood
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Re: Predictions on how brutal this/next cycle will be?

Postby northwood » Fri Nov 05, 2010 5:37 pm

im going to assume that the medians at your targets are going up .1 gpa and 1pt on the lsat.

hate to be negative, but if you are close to median, be prepared for a WL, especially if you apply later in the cycle.

Emma1
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Re: Predictions on how brutal this/next cycle will be?

Postby Emma1 » Fri Nov 05, 2010 5:40 pm

that amd maybe it is sinking in that there are so many graduating law students that can't find jobs....

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AreJay711
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Re: Predictions on how brutal this/next cycle will be?

Postby AreJay711 » Fri Nov 05, 2010 5:42 pm

Some of the increase was because people have become more sensitive to rankings. Imagine deciding between GW or GULAC when 50% of both schools get big law (before the economy turned south this was pretty close to reality). If you knew you had a good chance at the same job out of a lower ranked school that is more convenient, you would likely take that with a scholarship. As it is, people are willing to sacrifice a lot for rankings.

At the same time it is getting a lot easier to get a job out of school than it was last year (at least I already have a few offers in case I don't get accepted to law school or TFA) so this may or may not continue. There is also hope that at least some applicants decided not to apply after realizing the legal hiring market isn't going to snap back as quickly as the rest of the economy and that they didn't want to be a lawyer enough to risk it.

JOThompson
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Re: Predictions on how brutal this/next cycle will be?

Postby JOThompson » Fri Nov 05, 2010 5:43 pm

Shit, I should've applied in '08 or this year. Perfect timing for stiff competition last term.

whymeohgodno
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Re: Predictions on how brutal this/next cycle will be?

Postby whymeohgodno » Fri Nov 05, 2010 6:36 pm

The smaller number of people who took the LSAT this October gives me hope that it won't be as cut throat...but the trend of rising medians is something I expect to happen for at least the next few years.

MissLucky
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Re: Predictions on how brutal this/next cycle will be?

Postby MissLucky » Fri Nov 05, 2010 6:42 pm

whymeohgodno wrote:The smaller number of people who took the LSAT this October gives me hope that it won't be as cut throat...but the trend of rising medians is something I expect to happen for at least the next few years.


is there a chart with the #s of test takers for each of the test administrations over the last few years? i thought i saw one on here but can't seem to find it again

whymeohgodno
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Re: Predictions on how brutal this/next cycle will be?

Postby whymeohgodno » Fri Nov 05, 2010 6:45 pm

MissLucky wrote:
whymeohgodno wrote:The smaller number of people who took the LSAT this October gives me hope that it won't be as cut throat...but the trend of rising medians is something I expect to happen for at least the next few years.


is there a chart with the #s of test takers for each of the test administrations over the last few years? i thought i saw one on here but can't seem to find it again


There was one but I forgot where to find it :(

The Real Jack McCoy
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Re: Predictions on how brutal this/next cycle will be?

Postby The Real Jack McCoy » Fri Nov 05, 2010 6:48 pm

whymeohgodno wrote:The smaller number of people who took the LSAT this October gives me hope that it won't be as cut throat...but the trend of rising medians is something I expect to happen for at least the next few years.


If there are less test takers (10%!), and LSAT scores are based on percentiles, how are LSAT medians going to rise?

The link to the chart is up a couple posts, but here it is again:

http://lsac.org/LSACResources/Data/lsat ... stered.asp

The formatting is off, probably due to the new data.

whymeohgodno
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Re: Predictions on how brutal this/next cycle will be?

Postby whymeohgodno » Fri Nov 05, 2010 6:50 pm

The Real Jack McCoy wrote:
whymeohgodno wrote:The smaller number of people who took the LSAT this October gives me hope that it won't be as cut throat...but the trend of rising medians is something I expect to happen for at least the next few years.


If there are less test takers (10%!), and LSAT scores are based on percentiles, how are LSAT medians going to rise?

The link to the chart is up a couple posts, but here it is again:

http://lsac.org/LSACResources/Data/lsat ... stered.asp

The formatting is off, probably due to the new data.


Sorry - I meant LSAT medians at t14 and probably t17 schools.

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northwood
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Re: Predictions on how brutal this/next cycle will be?

Postby northwood » Fri Nov 05, 2010 7:23 pm

I am guessing that schools will keep raising their medians, or at least keep them the same. Why would they want to lower their standards, and possibly lose their ranking?

whymeohgodno
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Re: Predictions on how brutal this/next cycle will be?

Postby whymeohgodno » Fri Nov 05, 2010 7:31 pm

northwood wrote:I am guessing that schools will keep raising their medians, or at least keep them the same. Why would they want to lower their standards, and possibly lose their ranking?

USNWR is shutting down after December I hear.

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northwood
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Re: Predictions on how brutal this/next cycle will be?

Postby northwood » Fri Nov 05, 2010 7:32 pm

fantastic! now cooleys rankings will be slightly more legit

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charlesxavier
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Re: Predictions on how brutal this/next cycle will be?

Postby charlesxavier » Fri Nov 05, 2010 7:32 pm

whymeohgodno wrote:
northwood wrote:I am guessing that schools will keep raising their medians, or at least keep them the same. Why would they want to lower their standards, and possibly lose their ranking?

USNWR is shutting down after December I hear.


I think it is going online only.

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dabomb75
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Re: Predictions on how brutal this/next cycle will be?

Postby dabomb75 » Fri Nov 05, 2010 7:33 pm

northwood wrote:I am guessing that schools will keep raising their medians, or at least keep them the same. Why would they want to lower their standards, and possibly lose their ranking?


it's kinda hard to continue raising your medians if there are less %s o people taking the test, and thus logically less # of people to choose from above the medians (this is assuming that the lower number of people has the same distribution as last years, which is a fair assumption)

Medians should based on this logic not rise and have the possibility of slightly dropping

whymeohgodno
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Re: Predictions on how brutal this/next cycle will be?

Postby whymeohgodno » Fri Nov 05, 2010 7:35 pm

dabomb75 wrote:
northwood wrote:I am guessing that schools will keep raising their medians, or at least keep them the same. Why would they want to lower their standards, and possibly lose their ranking?


it's kinda hard to continue raising your medians if there are less %s o people taking the test, and thus logically less # of people to choose from above the medians (this is assuming that the lower number of people has the same distribution as last years, which is a fair assumption)

Medians should based on this logic not rise and have the possibility of slightly dropping


T14-t17 schools always have more applicants who qualify with their numbers than they have spots.

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capitalacq
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Re: Predictions on how brutal this/next cycle will be?

Postby capitalacq » Sat Nov 06, 2010 1:24 am

pppokerface wrote:Just curious, since there was a surge in LSATs on 09-10 (and a smaller on this year)
Do you think this cycle will be harder than last year's? Or easier?
Do you think next year will be even harder than both, or a bit easier?

This cycle will be easier than last years. Next cycle will be easier or the same as this years (I'm leaning towards easier).

Odds are that anyone telling you otherwise is someone applying this cycle who is trying to preempt any rejections w/ an excuse (maybe subconsciously). But if there's no compelling reason for you to wait until next year, you might as well go this year. I don't think it's going to be a material difference

ilovemulch
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Re: Predictions on how brutal this/next cycle will be?

Postby ilovemulch » Sat Nov 06, 2010 1:32 am

capitalacq wrote:
pppokerface wrote:Just curious, since there was a surge in LSATs on 09-10 (and a smaller on this year)
Do you think this cycle will be harder than last year's? Or easier?
Do you think next year will be even harder than both, or a bit easier?

This cycle will be easier than last years. Next cycle will be easier or the same as this years (I'm leaning towards easier).

Odds are that anyone telling you otherwise is someone applying this cycle who is trying to preempt any rejections w/ an excuse (maybe subconsciously). But if there's no compelling reason for you to wait until next year, you might as well go this year. I don't think it's going to be a material difference


Do you think it will be similar in brutality to the '08-'09 cycle?

whymeohgodno
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Re: Predictions on how brutal this/next cycle will be?

Postby whymeohgodno » Sat Nov 06, 2010 1:33 am

capitalacq wrote:
pppokerface wrote:Just curious, since there was a surge in LSATs on 09-10 (and a smaller on this year)
Do you think this cycle will be harder than last year's? Or easier?
Do you think next year will be even harder than both, or a bit easier?

This cycle will be easier than last years. Next cycle will be easier or the same as this years (I'm leaning towards easier).

Odds are that anyone telling you otherwise is someone applying this cycle who is trying to preempt any rejections w/ an excuse (maybe subconsciously). But if there's no compelling reason for you to wait until next year, you might as well go this year. I don't think it's going to be a material difference


Is your only data for saying this cycle will be easier than lasts is because of the fewer number of LSAT takers?

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capitalacq
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Re: Predictions on how brutal this/next cycle will be?

Postby capitalacq » Sat Nov 06, 2010 1:43 am

whymeohgodno wrote:
capitalacq wrote:
pppokerface wrote:Just curious, since there was a surge in LSATs on 09-10 (and a smaller on this year)
Do you think this cycle will be harder than last year's? Or easier?
Do you think next year will be even harder than both, or a bit easier?

This cycle will be easier than last years. Next cycle will be easier or the same as this years (I'm leaning towards easier).

Odds are that anyone telling you otherwise is someone applying this cycle who is trying to preempt any rejections w/ an excuse (maybe subconsciously). But if there's no compelling reason for you to wait until next year, you might as well go this year. I don't think it's going to be a material difference


Is your only data for saying this cycle will be easier than lasts is because of the fewer number of LSAT takers?


It's based on that # + economy + employment + UG hiring + deep knowledge of last cycle + adcomm convos this since. No doubt it's going to be easier than last cycle (not that it matters since you cant go back and apply).. better question is between this years and next years.. and while I'd speculate that next year will be easier, I don't know enough to predict if its actually worth waiting




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