Multiple Application Odds

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admisionquestion
Posts: 473
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 12:16 am

Multiple Application Odds

Postby admisionquestion » Fri Oct 08, 2010 11:58 am

I am wondering how you think the math works on odds and multiple applications.

If my percent below numbers for for CCN are 38%, 47% and 47%, respectively. What are the odds of getting into at least one of these schools?

Someone talk about this subject a little bit. Does it work to just do the math on it or is there some reason that this would be innacurate.


Setting aside any reasons to doubt the percentages from:

http://www.lawschoolpredictor.com/wp-co ... ograms.htm

Brick_Tamlin
Posts: 21
Joined: Sat Apr 17, 2010 11:17 am

Re: Multiple Application Odds

Postby Brick_Tamlin » Fri Oct 08, 2010 12:19 pm

interesting thought. I think the math isn't as clear as it could be.

I am assuming you are going to calculate P(getting into at least one) as 1 - P(rejected at all). The easiest way to do this would be to do 1-P(rejected at Col)*P(rejected at Chi)*P(rejected at NYU), so 1 - .62*.53*53 = 1 - .17 = 83% chance of getting in each.

The issue is that calculation assumes the probabilty of getting into NYU is independent of the probability of getting into Chicago. Since there is overlap in what admissions offices are looking for, this probably isn't true. As an extreme example, take a room full of 100 people with exactly your scores. Say Chicago picks 47 of them to admit, and NYU using the exact same criteria admits the same 47 people. Your probability of getting it would still be 47%, not a combination of the two.

I like the thought though. It probably overestimates the probability of getting into at least one, but its certainly interesting to consider. You could use it as an upper bound on the probability of getting into at least one of the three, where the lower bound is the largest of the 3 individual probabilities.

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St.Remy
Posts: 526
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2010 10:12 pm

Re: Multiple Application Odds

Postby St.Remy » Fri Oct 08, 2010 12:26 pm

admisionquestion wrote:I am wondering how you think the math works on odds and multiple applications.

If my percent below numbers for for CCN are 38%, 47% and 47%, respectively. What are the odds of getting into at least one of these schools?

Someone talk about this subject a little bit. Does it work to just do the math on it or is there some reason that this would be innacurate.


Setting aside any reasons to doubt the percentages from:

http://www.lawschoolpredictor.com/wp-co ... ograms.htm


The percent below numbers on Law School Predictor are not useful in all situations. If your numbers are both slightly below median you might get a high percent below number (less than 50% of course, which all the numbers you listed are) but your actual chances at that school are very low. Post your actual numbers and the board will tell you what your chances are, or look at lawschoolnumbers.com and try to find someone that was in a similar situation to yourself last cycle.

admisionquestion
Posts: 473
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 12:16 am

Re: Multiple Application Odds

Postby admisionquestion » Fri Oct 08, 2010 12:47 pm

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Last edited by admisionquestion on Wed Jul 06, 2011 8:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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St.Remy
Posts: 526
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2010 10:12 pm

Re: Multiple Application Odds

Postby St.Remy » Fri Oct 08, 2010 12:58 pm

admisionquestion wrote:I have good softs for someone right out of undergrad. Lots of good work experience, involvement in school, double major, honors etc.

LSAT 169 (or greater) I'm trying to calm my nerves for Tomorrow by seeing what a reasonable worst case scenario is (My actually Lsat has consistently been a few points higher)

GPA =3.85


First off if you're right out of undergrad then you probably don't have "work experience" like the phrase is used on these boards. Work experience usually refers to working full time in order to pay bills etc. usually for at least two years. Having a job in undergrad does not equal having work experience.

For CCN you're really going to need a 171 for a decent shot according to LSN. You have a great GPA for that range, but they tend not to dip below 170 at all, and even a 170 last year was a tough sell. Good luck tomorrow, and if you hit what you've been consistently practicing at your chances look good.




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