Meanings of predictions on LS Predictor

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cyxdev17
Posts: 97
Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 1:53 am

Meanings of predictions on LS Predictor

Postby cyxdev17 » Wed Aug 18, 2010 4:35 pm

What exactly does "strongly consider" mean? That you'll probably get in if everything else about you is decent, or is that too optimistic?

Also, what kind of stats make you a "borderline" applicant in which case the quality of your softs will probably play a big role? (i.e. are you borderline when you're at the medians of GPA/LSAT, or when you're at the 25%?)

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Knock
Posts: 5152
Joined: Wed Jun 10, 2009 3:09 pm

Re: Meanings of predictions on LS Predictor

Postby Knock » Wed Aug 18, 2010 11:27 pm

cyxdev17 wrote:What exactly does "strongly consider" mean? That you'll probably get in if everything else about you is decent, or is that too optimistic?

Also, what kind of stats make you a "borderline" applicant in which case the quality of your softs will probably play a big role? (i.e. are you borderline when you're at the medians of GPA/LSAT, or when you're at the 25%?)


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Accuracy

“History is the fiction we invent to persuade ourselves that events are knowable and that life has order and direction.” – Calvin, from Calvin & Hobbes

Law School Predictor is of far greater use to applicants when applicants can gauge the accuracy of LSP predictions. These results are based off of more than 33,500 Law School Numbers-listed law school admission decisions from the 2008-09 cycle for all ABA schools listed on both LSN and LSP. The version of LSP tested was Version 2.4. A big thanks goes out to TLS forum member CyLaw for compiling the data from LSN; I couldn’t have done it without CyLaw.

The admit rate was calculated by taking the number of admitted applicants divided by total applicants for each respective prediciton category (total applicants includes admitted, waitlisted, and rejected applicants, but does not include those who status was listed as “pending”). The prediction categories used in testing accuracy are the same as LSP’s prediction engine with the exception of early prediction (which was not tested); predictions are adjusted to account for splitter-ness, weak GPAs, and URM status.

All Applicants

Target admit rates, based on how LSP renders predictions:
When LSP said Admit: >= 87%
When LSP said Strong Consider: ~ 69%
When LSP said Consider: ~ 50%
When LSP said Weak Consider: ~ 31%
When LSP said Deny: <= 13%

Based on the 33,500+ LSN decisions from the 2008-09 admission cycle:
When LSP said Admit, 8402 instances: 87.0%, +0.0%
When LSP said Strong Consider, 4842 instances: 78.0%, +9.0%
When LSP said Consider, 10066 instances: 50.6%, +0.6%
When LSP said Weak Consider, 3646 instances: 22.8%, -8.2%
When LSP said Deny, 6754 instances: 10.0%, -3.0%

Difference between actual admit rate and predicted admit rate: (prediction categories weighted evenly)
Average rate: -0.3%
Median rate: -3.0%

Summary:
Prediction categories that were right on the money: Admit, Consider
Prediction categories that were reasonably close: Deny
Prediction categories that were somewhat off: Strong Consider and Weak Consider

A closer look…
A possible explanation for the Strong/Weak Consider results is that the chance of being admitted (based on admission index scores and LSP adjustments) should look like a parabolic curve (since it should be a normal distribution), and, based on these accuracy results, a curve with a high and narrow peak in the center (leptokurtic distribution).


As for borderline, it's hard to say.

cyxdev17
Posts: 97
Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 1:53 am

Re: Meanings of predictions on LS Predictor

Postby cyxdev17 » Wed Aug 18, 2010 11:40 pm

Haha thanks...I probably should have looked that up myself.

So for strong consider, LSN results show a 9% higher rate of being admitted than LSP predicted? I guess that's a good thing...




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