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Is median a target or a reach?

Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2010 1:32 pm
by Hey-O
If my numbers are at or just below the medians and LSN puts me at Consider should I think of that as a reach school or a target school?

I'm trying to decide how high I should bother to apply. Does an LSN consider and a median numbers mean about a 50/50 chance of getting in?

Re: Is median a target or a reach?

Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2010 1:35 pm
by romothesavior
Hey-O wrote:If my numbers are at or just below the medians and LSN puts me at Consider should I think of that as a reach school or a target school?

I'm trying to decide how high I should bother to apply. Does an LSN consider and a median numbers mean about a 50/50 chance of getting in?


At median = Target
Below = Reach

But a lot depends on the school. For example, if you are at LSAT median but way below GPA median for Vandy, you are likely out. They are not splitter friendly. But if you hit median and are below GPA median for WUSTL, you are almost certainly in. So a 168/3.1 may be a reach for Vandy, but a 167/3.1 for WUSTL is almost certainly in, so it is more of a safe target.

Re: Is median a target or a reach?

Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2010 1:38 pm
by vespertiliovir
romothesavior wrote:a lot depends on the school.

+1.

Re: Is median a target or a reach?

Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2010 1:38 pm
by KibblesAndVick
I don't think there is a universal answer. It depends a lot on which schools you're talking about and if it's your GPA or your LSAT that's at median or below median.

The real answer is that you should put forward your best application regardless. After that all you can say is "alea iacta est".

Re: Is median a target or a reach?

Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2010 2:25 pm
by Hey-O
Thanks for the replies. I'm re-applying so I can't count on fee waivers and I have limited funds so I'm trying to limit the number of reaches and determine what is the best bet for my application time, money and energy.

Specifically I'm trying to decide on paying out the hefty fees to apply to Yale and Harvard. I'm slightly below both medians at Yale and I'm at medians for Harvard. LSN says 40% for both. I know I'm a likely ding, but I'm trying to gauge how likely a ding I'm going to be and if it would be worth the money it costs to send in the application.

I'm also trying to decide how far below T6 I should venture as safeties.

Re: Is median a target or a reach?

Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2010 2:36 pm
by lzyovrachievr
With your scores, it's definitely worth it to apply. It seems that predictions only somewhat work with Harvard and Yale. You need good scores to get in, but once you've reached a certain threshold, it's more of a guess. If you've got 40 percent chances, obviously that's not good, but it's a shot. If you somehow happen to get in, the application fee will be worth it.

As far as safeties go, I'd ask schools for fee waivers and do most of the T14 if you are just going for rank. You can use offers as leverage for funds later.

Re: Is median a target or a reach?

Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2010 2:44 pm
by Kilpatrick
If you are that close I'd say it's definitely worth it to apply at HYS. With those numbers and if you're on a budget for applications I don't think you have to venture too far out of the T6. Don't bother with Cornell or Georgetown that's for sure.

Re: Is median a target or a reach?

Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2010 4:28 pm
by username99
romothesavior wrote:
Hey-O wrote:If my numbers are at or just below the medians and LSN puts me at Consider should I think of that as a reach school or a target school?

I'm trying to decide how high I should bother to apply. Does an LSN consider and a median numbers mean about a 50/50 chance of getting in?


At median = Target
Below = Reach

But a lot depends on the school. For example, if you are at LSAT median but way below GPA median for Vandy, you are likely out. They are not splitter friendly. But if you hit median and are below GPA median for WUSTL, you are almost certainly in. So a 168/3.1 may be a reach for Vandy, but a 167/3.1 for WUSTL is almost certainly in, so it is more of a safe target.


How about GW?

Re: Is median a target or a reach?

Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2010 6:25 pm
by Bumi
Hey-O wrote:I'm slightly below both medians at Yale and I'm at medians for Harvard.


:shock:

Apply to both for the love of everything you consider dear. Sell things on craigslist to get the money if you have to. Consider selling yourself if you have no tangible assets. This is not a difficult question.

Re: Is median a target or a reach?

Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2010 6:29 pm
by Hannibal
Bumi wrote:
Hey-O wrote:I'm slightly below both medians at Yale and I'm at medians for Harvard.


:shock:

Apply to both for the love of everything you consider dear. Sell things on craigslist to get the money if you have to. Consider selling yourself if you have no tangible assets. This is not a difficult question.


+1. Are you damn serious? Applications are nothing compared to the future costs of law school, which are similarly small compared to the future salaries of HLS and Yale grads.

Re: Is median a target or a reach?

Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2010 6:43 pm
by servinDizzert
Hannibal wrote:
Bumi wrote:
Hey-O wrote:I'm slightly below both medians at Yale and I'm at medians for Harvard.


:shock:

Apply to both for the love of everything you consider dear. Sell things on craigslist to get the money if you have to. Consider selling yourself if you have no tangible assets. This is not a difficult question.


+1. Are you damn serious? Applications are nothing compared to the future costs of law school, which are similarly small compared to the future salaries of HLS and Yale grads.



+infinity

Re: Is median a target or a reach?

Posted: Sat Aug 07, 2010 12:53 am
by im_blue
Hey-O wrote:I'm slightly below both medians at Yale and I'm at medians for Harvard. LSN says 40% for both.

How is this possible when Harvard (3.89/173) and Yale (3.90/173) have virtually identical medians? If you had to choose one, Harvard would be the safer choice.

Re: Is median a target or a reach?

Posted: Sat Aug 07, 2010 12:40 pm
by Bumi
im_blue wrote:
Hey-O wrote:I'm slightly below both medians at Yale and I'm at medians for Harvard. LSN says 40% for both.

How is this possible when Harvard (3.89/173) and Yale (3.90/173) have virtually identical medians? If you had to choose one, Harvard would be the safer choice.


No no no. If you had to choose one, choosing both is the safer choice. This shouldn't be a conversation. If you are close to medians at Harvard and Yale, you apply to Harvard and you also apply to Yale. That way, if you get rejected at Harvard or Yale, you still have a shot at Harvard or Yale. If you are literally subsisting on food stamps and wearing hand me down clothes, and you have no family from whom to borrow the money, this is still the right answer.

The question of how low should the OP go into the T14 to make sure he's safe is much more interesting and should depend on whether safe means "in" or "paid for."

Re: Is median a target or a reach?

Posted: Mon Aug 09, 2010 4:19 pm
by Hey-O
im_blue wrote:
Hey-O wrote:I'm slightly below both medians at Yale and I'm at medians for Harvard. LSN says 40% for both.

How is this possible when Harvard (3.89/173) and Yale (3.90/173) have virtually identical medians? If you had to choose one, Harvard would be the safer choice.


Where are you getting the H numbers? LSN has Harvard 3.86/172. Are these old?

Re: Is median a target or a reach?

Posted: Mon Aug 09, 2010 4:27 pm
by Hey-O
Bumi wrote:
The question of how low should the OP go into the T14 to make sure he's safe is much more interesting and should depend on whether safe means "in" or "paid for."


Yes, I agree. I'll apply to Y and H but I'm not holding out any hope at all. But how far to cast my net is more what I'm interested in.

Does this sound reasonable:
Slightly above or at both medians = target, but sticker
Above median = target, some money
At 75% or above = safety, $$$

Re: Is median a target or a reach?

Posted: Mon Aug 09, 2010 4:47 pm
by Bumi
Hey-O wrote:
Bumi wrote:
The question of how low should the OP go into the T14 to make sure he's safe is much more interesting and should depend on whether safe means "in" or "paid for."


Yes, I agree. I'll apply to Y and H but I'm not holding out any hope at all. But how far to cast my net is more what I'm interested in.

Does this sound reasonable:
Slightly above or at both medians = target, but sticker
Above median = target, some money
At 75% or above = safety, $$$

Here's your answer. I don't know that it's simple, unfortunately. (By the way: what the hell is Michigan's problem?)

Re: Is median a target or a reach?

Posted: Mon Aug 09, 2010 5:11 pm
by Hey-O
Bumi wrote:
Hey-O wrote:
Bumi wrote:
The question of how low should the OP go into the T14 to make sure he's safe is much more interesting and should depend on whether safe means "in" or "paid for."


Yes, I agree. I'll apply to Y and H but I'm not holding out any hope at all. But how far to cast my net is more what I'm interested in.

Does this sound reasonable:
Slightly above or at both medians = target, but sticker
Above median = target, some money
At 75% or above = safety, $$$

Here's your answer. I don't know that it's simple, unfortunately. (By the way: what the hell is Michigan's problem?)


Thanks for this website; I haven't found this one before. It is much more effective than me just going to LSN and trying to gauge scholarships that way.

Re: Is median a target or a reach?

Posted: Mon Aug 09, 2010 5:21 pm
by Bumi
Oh yeah definitely. It's way better than trying to come up with a rule of thumb based on medians and percentiles. Good luck, you've got some jealousy-inducing numbers and should have a jealousy-inducing cycle.

Re: Is median a target or a reach?

Posted: Mon Aug 09, 2010 5:23 pm
by ilovemulch
Bumi wrote:
Hey-O wrote:
Bumi wrote:
The question of how low should the OP go into the T14 to make sure he's safe is much more interesting and should depend on whether safe means "in" or "paid for."


Yes, I agree. I'll apply to Y and H but I'm not holding out any hope at all. But how far to cast my net is more what I'm interested in.

Does this sound reasonable:
Slightly above or at both medians = target, but sticker
Above median = target, some money
At 75% or above = safety, $$$

Here's your answer. I don't know that it's simple, unfortunately. (By the way: what the hell is Michigan's problem?)


I heard the hourumd website is too optimistic as it is based on data from the past several years and it's clearly gotten much more competitive to get into most schools in the past year or two...? Anyone have any knowledge if this is true (about it being too optimistic)?

Re: Is median a target or a reach?

Posted: Mon Aug 09, 2010 5:26 pm
by Hey-O
Bumi wrote:Oh yeah definitely. It's way better than trying to come up with a rule of thumb based on medians and percentiles. Good luck, you've got some jealousy-inducing numbers and should have a jealousy-inducing cycle.


Thanks, this means a lot, right now I'm pretty nervous ITE; I hope you're right :mrgreen: . Good luck in your cycle as well.

Re: Is median a target or a reach?

Posted: Mon Aug 09, 2010 5:54 pm
by Hannibal
Bumi wrote:
Hey-O wrote:
Bumi wrote:
The question of how low should the OP go into the T14 to make sure he's safe is much more interesting and should depend on whether safe means "in" or "paid for."


Yes, I agree. I'll apply to Y and H but I'm not holding out any hope at all. But how far to cast my net is more what I'm interested in.

Does this sound reasonable:
Slightly above or at both medians = target, but sticker
Above median = target, some money
At 75% or above = safety, $$$

Here's your answer. I don't know that it's simple, unfortunately. (By the way: what the hell is Michigan's problem?)


That site seems to be based on a criminally small sample size. I put in one theoretical LSAT score, and I had 100% acceptance at my target school with an ok chance at good money. I put in another smaller theoretical LSAT score and I still had 100% acceptance at the school, but with a way bigger chance at money.

Re: Is median a target or a reach?

Posted: Mon Aug 09, 2010 5:58 pm
by Hey-O
Hannibal wrote:
Bumi wrote:
Hey-O wrote:
Bumi wrote:
The question of how low should the OP go into the T14 to make sure he's safe is much more interesting and should depend on whether safe means "in" or "paid for."


Yes, I agree. I'll apply to Y and H but I'm not holding out any hope at all. But how far to cast my net is more what I'm interested in.

Does this sound reasonable:
Slightly above or at both medians = target, but sticker
Above median = target, some money
At 75% or above = safety, $$$

Here's your answer. I don't know that it's simple, unfortunately. (By the way: what the hell is Michigan's problem?)


That site seems to be based on a criminally small sample size. I put in one theoretical LSAT score, and I had 100% acceptance at my target school with an ok chance at good money. I put in another smaller theoretical LSAT score and I still had 100% acceptance at the school, but with a way bigger chance at money.


It's because it based on LSN, which, especially for $$$ is too small a sample size. But it is a useful compilation of LSN. More useful than say, looking at LSN for each school individually and trying to gauge scholly amounts.

Edit: fixed the quotes

Re: Is median a target or a reach?

Posted: Mon Aug 09, 2010 6:00 pm
by Hannibal
:oops: Yeah.

Edit: oh you messed up the quotes. Slightly less oops.

Re: Is median a target or a reach?

Posted: Tue Aug 10, 2010 3:24 am
by im_blue
Hey-O wrote:
im_blue wrote:
Hey-O wrote:I'm slightly below both medians at Yale and I'm at medians for Harvard. LSN says 40% for both.

How is this possible when Harvard (3.89/173) and Yale (3.90/173) have virtually identical medians? If you had to choose one, Harvard would be the safer choice.


Where are you getting the H numbers? LSN has Harvard 3.86/172. Are these old?

Official ABA data for Class of 2012.

http://officialguide.lsac.org/SearchRes ... BA3457.pdf