Law school application #s for the fall of 2011: predictions?

(Applications Advice, Letters of Recommendation . . . )

How will the 2010-2011 application cycle compare to this year's?

More applications
45
44%
Fewer applications
28
27%
About the same number of applications
30
29%
 
Total votes: 103

thelawz09
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Law school application #s for the fall of 2011: predictions?

Postby thelawz09 » Tue Jun 08, 2010 4:59 pm

http://www.lsac.org/LSAT/tests-administered.asp

More people took the LSAT in 09-10 than ever before. Many, many law schools saw more applications than they had ever seen in their history.

Will things get more competitive in 10-11? Less? About the same?

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trialjunky
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Re: Law school application #s for the fall of 2011: predictions?

Postby trialjunky » Tue Jun 08, 2010 5:00 pm

prolly, with all the doom and gloom going on and that damn msn/new york times article that has seemed to get around

CMDantes
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Re: Law school application #s for the fall of 2011: predictions?

Postby CMDantes » Tue Jun 08, 2010 5:26 pm

trialjunky wrote:prolly, with all the doom and gloom going on and that damn msn/new york times article that has seemed to get around


Which one?

thelawz09
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Re: Law school application #s for the fall of 2011: predictions?

Postby thelawz09 » Tue Jun 08, 2010 5:31 pm

I'm kind of stunned by the lack of consensus so far...

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PrayingforHYS
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Re: Law school application #s for the fall of 2011: predictions?

Postby PrayingforHYS » Wed Jun 09, 2010 12:03 am

People are taking the LSAT at record numbers, so I fully expect the applications to LS to continue rising, especially if the economy continues to struggle.

People see law school--for good or bad--as a "sure field," and apps will continue to rise until the economy shows sustained growth (who knows when that will be? we could see this up and down trend continue and flux between 10-11k until 2015 for all I know)

This is just my humble opinion, but the statistics seem to back it up.

Thus, for all of us applying this upcoming cycle, expect a lot of waitlists. Sigh.

hellokitty
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Re: Law school application #s for the fall of 2011: predictions?

Postby hellokitty » Wed Jun 09, 2010 12:04 am

For my sake, I hope its less but it will probably end up being more. :evil:

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kalvano
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Re: Law school application #s for the fall of 2011: predictions?

Postby kalvano » Wed Jun 09, 2010 12:05 am

It'll be more. Apply early.

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acrossthelake
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Re: Law school application #s for the fall of 2011: predictions?

Postby acrossthelake » Wed Jun 09, 2010 12:08 am

More. There's been a rising trend in apps to undergrad for the past few years, there should be one to law school as well.

Jacktone
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Re: Law school application #s for the fall of 2011: predictions?

Postby Jacktone » Wed Jun 09, 2010 2:45 am

I voted that there will be more applications. My evidence in support of this choice is anecdotal, but it still scares me. I've been out of undergrad for a couple of years already. Many of my friends from undergrad had considered law school, but upon graduation none felt law school was where they wanted to go. This past year many of my friends suddenly changed their minds. Thus, every year since I graduated I've known 0 law school applicants; this year (counting myself) I will know at least 5.

thelawz09
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Re: Law school application #s for the fall of 2011: predictions?

Postby thelawz09 » Wed Jun 09, 2010 10:01 am

I'm going to hope that the gloomy media coverage of law school, combined with the turning of the economy, will send more people into jobs and fewer people to law school.

Also, fewer people took the February 2010 LSAT than took the February 2009 LSAT. Every LSAT before the Feb 2010 LSAT since February 2008 saw an increase over the past year. Maybe the tide is turning?

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Knock
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Re: Law school application #s for the fall of 2011: predictions?

Postby Knock » Wed Jun 09, 2010 7:12 pm

thelawz09 wrote:I'm going to hope that the gloomy media coverage of law school, combined with the turning of the economy, will send more people into jobs and fewer people to law school.

Also, fewer people took the February 2010 LSAT than took the February 2009 LSAT. Every LSAT before the Feb 2010 LSAT since February 2008 saw an increase over the past year. Maybe the tide is turning?


I hope your right.

I'm guessing that this will be the record for highest applicants and the peak, and then it will go down after that. Just guessing that because the universe wants to make things difficult for me :lol: .

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gdane
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Re: Law school application #s for the fall of 2011: predictions?

Postby gdane » Wed Jun 09, 2010 7:28 pm

Fewer people took the Feb LSAT because people seldomly take the Feb LSAT as it is. Also, its undisclosed so people are even more reluctant to take it. They'd rather take it in June so they can get their answers back.

To answer the question, I think there will be less applicants. The economy is getting better and word will get around that law school isnt a sure bet.

kmarks
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Re: Law school application #s for the fall of 2011: predictions?

Postby kmarks » Sun Jul 25, 2010 7:38 am

A month late in the game but...

Having just taken the June LSAT, ~80% of my room said they weren't actually applying this cycle (signed up early then realized how terrible the economy was, and decided to get the test out of the way but not pursue law school for awhile) So I hope/think it'll be less. I'm international though, and its a pretty unrepresentative group from a class of 30-odd students.

This could also be wishful thinking though :lol:

lawls
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Re: Law school application #s for the fall of 2011: predictions?

Postby lawls » Sun Jul 25, 2010 8:08 am

February LSATs were down 1.3% as compared to February 2009 (possibly suggesting the biggest spike was for people aiming for 2010 admissions); since this is a percentage, it doesn't matter how many people usually take the February test. If June 2010 turns out to be down a similar percent or more, it starts to look like a trend, but so far it looks about equal.

goles5
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Re: Law school application #s for the fall of 2011: predictions?

Postby goles5 » Sun Jul 25, 2010 9:48 am

But remember that the February 2010 LSATS were snowed out in about 70-80 test centers from VA up to new England. The system that LSAC used to schedule the retakes was atrocious - some people were not notified about the retake times until 24 hours prior to when they would have to take it. Many people (including me) got fed up and postponed to another iteration.

I think that should easily make up the 1.3 percent difference. From anecdotal evidence, I doubt there is a trend toward fewer takers, but we will have to wait and see.

lawls
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Re: Law school application #s for the fall of 2011: predictions?

Postby lawls » Sun Jul 25, 2010 10:05 am

Yah that makes sense, forgot about the snow ins. June numbers should tell the story, and I suspect it will be within 2% of last June's numbers.

03121202698008
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Re: Law school application #s for the fall of 2011: predictions?

Postby 03121202698008 » Sun Jul 25, 2010 10:39 am

It'll be more, probably way more. People tend to try to hide out recessions in grad school. Applications were way up this year and next year won't be any different. For everyone who takes the test and decided to wait out a year, there are probably 2-3 people that did this the last two years and aren't willing to wait anymore.

lawls
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Re: Law school application #s for the fall of 2011: predictions?

Postby lawls » Sun Jul 25, 2010 10:47 am

blowhard wrote:It'll be more, probably way more. People tend to try to hide out recessions in grad school. Applications were way up this year and next year won't be any different. For everyone who takes the test and decided to wait out a year, there are probably 2-3 people that did this the last two years and aren't willing to wait anymore.


Last cycle the economy wasn't exactly peachy. No reason to expect this year will be worse than last year--especially since our first data point (February 2010 test) suggests there were less people taking the test. I think it'll be about the same because the economy hasn't changed too much as compared to what it was leading into the 2009-2010 cycle. Probably about 170, 000 taking the test again...

Geist13
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Re: Law school application #s for the fall of 2011: predictions?

Postby Geist13 » Sun Jul 25, 2010 11:00 am

blowhard wrote:It'll be more, probably way more. People tend to try to hide out recessions in grad school. Applications were way up this year and next year won't be any different. For everyone who takes the test and decided to wait out a year, there are probably 2-3 people that did this the last two years and aren't willing to wait anymore.


Applications were not really "way" up this year. Nationwide, there was a 7% increase in total number of applications and only and 3% increase in the amount of applicants applying to law schools. It is certainly an increase, but it is by no means an explosion of applicants. And remember, since a single applicant can only attend a single school, it is the rise (or decline) of total applicants that is important. A rise in applications just means people are applying to more schools, which really doesn't matter.

03121202698008
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Re: Law school application #s for the fall of 2011: predictions?

Postby 03121202698008 » Sun Jul 25, 2010 11:11 am

lawls wrote:
blowhard wrote:It'll be more, probably way more. People tend to try to hide out recessions in grad school. Applications were way up this year and next year won't be any different. For everyone who takes the test and decided to wait out a year, there are probably 2-3 people that did this the last two years and aren't willing to wait anymore.


Last cycle the economy wasn't exactly peachy. No reason to expect this year will be worse than last year--especially since our first data point (February 2010 test) suggests there were less people taking the test. I think it'll be about the same because the economy hasn't changed too much as compared to what it was leading into the 2009-2010 cycle. Probably about 170, 000 taking the test again...


Hasn't nearly every year been worse than the year before for applications? I don't know if it's ever been down. You cannot use people taking the LSAT as a metric. Many people take it their Junior year and then apply their senior. Or, on the other side they take it 2-3 times before they apply.

People graduating cannot find jobs. This pushes them towards grad programs where they can defer their loans and hide out the recession.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/10/education/10grad.html

Some schools (Cornell) were up over 44%. LSAT takers were at an all-time high. A lot of those takers didn't get in this year or didn't apply. At least some of those will roll-forward to this years applications.

At schools I cared about...applications were "way" up this year. I could care less that less people are applying to Cooley.

lawls
Posts: 126
Joined: Sun Jun 20, 2010 1:52 am

Re: Law school application #s for the fall of 2011: predictions?

Postby lawls » Sun Jul 25, 2010 11:24 am

blowhard wrote:
lawls wrote:
blowhard wrote:It'll be more, probably way more. People tend to try to hide out recessions in grad school. Applications were way up this year and next year won't be any different. For everyone who takes the test and decided to wait out a year, there are probably 2-3 people that did this the last two years and aren't willing to wait anymore.


Last cycle the economy wasn't exactly peachy. No reason to expect this year will be worse than last year--especially since our first data point (February 2010 test) suggests there were less people taking the test. I think it'll be about the same because the economy hasn't changed too much as compared to what it was leading into the 2009-2010 cycle. Probably about 170, 000 taking the test again...


Hasn't nearly every year been worse than the year before for applications? I don't know if it's ever been down. You cannot use people taking the LSAT as a metric. Many people take it their Junior year and then apply their senior. Or, on the other side they take it 2-3 times before they apply.

People graduating cannot find jobs. This pushes them towards grad programs where they can defer their loans and hide out the recession.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/10/education/10grad.html

Some schools (Cornell) were up over 44%. LSAT takers were at an all-time high. A lot of those takers didn't get in this year or didn't apply. At least some of those will roll-forward to this years applications.

At schools I cared about...applications were "way" up this year. I could care less that less people are applying to Cooley.


Applications don't go up every year; there are years where they go down. They go up and down with the economy (generally lagging the economy), though there is a general upwards trend due to increases in population/workforce and the proliferation of undergraduate degrees. The last surge was with the dot com bust.

Cornell was up 44% of applications; that doesn't speak to the applicant pool, because applicants were applying more widely.




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