Guess the % admitted to NYU that are also admitted to CLS

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Guess the % admitted to NYU that are also admitted to CLS

>90%
10
5%
>75%
49
25%
>60%
63
32%
>50%
34
17%
<50%
43
22%
 
Total votes: 199

BenJ
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Re: Guess the % admitted to NYU that are also admitted to CLS

Postby BenJ » Mon Apr 12, 2010 10:09 pm

smashedpumpkins wrote:
BenJ wrote:There are 21 Hamiltons reported on LSN for this year alone. LSN consists of no more than maybe a quarter at most of admits. Columbia has to offer at least around 75 Hamiltons every year, possibly up to 100. (Obviously, most people turn them down.)

Count the $153k people (last one is on page 3):
http://columbia.lawschoolnumbers.com/ap ... er=asc&p=1

Edit: Just recounted and found 20. Whatever, same point applies.



I really doubt there's that many. At the last ASD, there were 10 kids at the meeting. Double that (for the March ASD) and maybe add in another 10-15 who didn't visit at all (unless you think there's a huge population of recipients who think it's not even worth their while to visit, which I find somewhat hard to believe).


Also, yes, their yield is really that low. From talking with people at the most recent ASD, I think the majority will go HYS.


Someone would have to confirm this, but I would guess that most Hamilton and Butler recipients go to the March ASD. After all, they were all admitted in late January (or early February for some Butlers), plenty of time and more to plan for the March ASD.

Also, I wouldn't be particularly surprised if a lot of them didn't bother visiting. Given the incredibly low yield rate for Hamiltons, surely a bunch of Hamilton recipients must be totally uninterested in Columbia.

100 might be pushing it, but I don't think 75 Hamiltons is unreasonable at all. Consider that Harvard admits around 700 (I think) people annually. Columbia is trying to grab some of those people, and all they really have to do it with is the Hamilton. So offerring a lot of Hamiltons is not at all unreasonable, especially since they know few people will take them up on the offer.

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Re: Guess the % admitted to NYU that are also admitted to CLS

Postby of Benito Cereno » Tue Apr 13, 2010 5:07 am

]
I'd guess that at least half of the nyu class did not get into cls.[/quote]

i'd guess you are wrong[/quote]
look at lsn. its pretty clear a quite large percentage of students listed as attending did not get into cls, whereas basically 100% of cls students got into nyu. I don't feel like counting but it looks like at least 1/3 didn't get into cls.

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Re: Guess the % admitted to NYU that are also admitted to CLS

Postby of Benito Cereno » Tue Apr 13, 2010 5:21 am

WOW! so i gave in to the impulse and did a quick and sloppy count of students listed as attending nyu from last cycle on lsn and SHOCKINGLY a little under 80% were NOT admitted to CLS. That's right, like 80% of nyu attending students didn't get into columbia!
also, a quick glance makes clear that pretty much every student attending cls got into nyu.
Does that mean CLS:NYU as SLS:Boalt as UoC:NW? not really, but it is clear that a recent move up in the rankings and a great faculty aren't enough to make nyu an equal choice to cls. not a question of being reasonable or fair but thats just how it is. all that rhetoric about them being an identical product or a flip of the coin seems to fall by the wayside.

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Re: Guess the % admitted to NYU that are also admitted to CLS

Postby badfish » Tue Apr 13, 2010 6:28 am

of Benito Cereno wrote:WOW! so i gave in to the impulse and did a quick and sloppy count of students listed as attending nyu from last cycle on lsn and SHOCKINGLY a little under 80% were NOT admitted to CLS. That's right, like 80% of nyu attending students didn't get into columbia!
also, a quick glance makes clear that pretty much every student attending cls got into nyu


Listen dude, LSN is not the end all be all of law school calculations. It's not a random sample and shouldn't be treated as such. Moreover, I'm not sure how you can even make an individualized count short of clicking on every single green dot on the nyu page, checking to see if they are attending and then checking to see if they have been admitted @ CLS. Even if you did that, there are >100 green dots on the page, meaning you have less than a quarter of the class in your non-random sample. In short, even if you went through all of this trouble (which I highly doubt you did b/c honestly who the fuck would do that) it still wouldn't mean shit.

Here's something equally worthless but perhaps more telling. I go to school @ NYU. I have asked many people about their decision and more than 50% of the people that I asked stated they were considering/accepted to CLS. Now, perhaps they have an incentive to lie to me and perhaps my sample isn't random but the feeling that I get is that there are a lot more cross-admits who choose NYU than you posit.

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Re: Guess the % admitted to NYU that are also admitted to CLS

Postby of Benito Cereno » Tue Apr 13, 2010 6:58 am

badfish wrote:
of Benito Cereno wrote:WOW! so i gave in to the impulse and did a quick and sloppy count of students listed as attending nyu from last cycle on lsn and SHOCKINGLY a little under 80% were NOT admitted to CLS. That's right, like 80% of nyu attending students didn't get into columbia!
also, a quick glance makes clear that pretty much every student attending cls got into nyu


Listen dude, LSN is not the end all be all of law school calculations. It's not a random sample and shouldn't be treated as such. Moreover, I'm not sure how you can even make an individualized count short of clicking on every single green dot on the nyu page, checking to see if they are attending and then checking to see if they have been admitted @ CLS. Even if you did that, there are >100 green dots on the page, meaning you have less than a quarter of the class in your non-random sample. In short, even if you went through all of this trouble (which I highly doubt you did b/c honestly who the fuck would do that) it still wouldn't mean shit.

Here's something equally worthless but perhaps more telling. I go to school @ NYU. I have asked many people about their decision and more than 50% of the people that I asked stated they were considering/accepted to CLS. Now, perhaps they have an incentive to lie to me and perhaps my sample isn't random but the feeling that I get is that there are a lot more cross-admits who choose NYU than you posit.

I looked at the list of people who were listed as Admitted/Attending. There were like 50 and I clicked on them and looked at their profiles. I'm sure its not really as high a % as lsn suggests (even though I did actually look at those 50 profiles and counted how many got into cls... 11 or 9.... I was bored waiting for my waffles to come). I'm also not trying to mock nyu or anything. I really like nyu a lot and I think it frankly has a better faculty than columbia. I'm probably going to choose cls for a variety of reasons that are pretty specific to my career goals but I could easily have ended up picking nyu over cls. However, I think it is inaccurate when everyone assumes that everyone is just choosing between uofc, nyu, and cls. Instead, its pretty clear that a big chunk of the students at chicago and nyu are there because those are the highest ranked school they got into. Clearly a lot of people have to think about cls vs nyu every year but the vast majority seems to choose cls. I know like a dozen people who choose cls over nyu and only one who choose nyu over columbia and thats only because of getting 90k more at nyu. I really like nyu and think its a fantastic school with an insane faculty and really smart students; its just that its pretty clear that its student body is filled with people who did not get into columbia. by and large, cls vs nyu is NOT about idiosyncratic self-selection even if it SHOULD be (which is should).

yea, its true that lsn isn't a totally random sample but I doubt that more than half of nyu students got into cls if lsn shows 80% of nyu matriculating students not getting into columbia. if you look at most t14 schools, lsn data seems to be in the general ballpark for lsat/gpa medians and 25th/75ths, yields, and admit %s.

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Re: Guess the % admitted to NYU that are also admitted to CLS

Postby Unemployed » Tue Apr 13, 2010 7:14 am

Warning: Guesstimates based on "common knowledge" forthcoming. There's no way to verify the common knowledge, of course.

Assumption 1: 10% of the student body at each school were accepted to YHS (too generous?). Obviously, these people got into both CLS and NYU.

Assumption 2: Nearly everyone at CLS got into NYU - say 90% (NYU admissions is a numbers-based rubber stamp process, and most at CLS "qualify")

Assumption 3: CLS takes 2/3 of the cross admits, NYU takes 1/3. This is excluding people who get into both but choose to go elsewhere.

Under this scenario, here's the breakdown of the CLS student body.

40 (10%): got into YHS, CLS and NYU
320 (80%) got into CLS and NYU
40 (10%) got into CLS but not NYU

Based on this, the # of people who got into both but chose NYU is 160. So the breakdown at NYU is:

45 (10%): got into YHS, CLS and NYU
160 (36%): got into CLS and NYU
245 (54%): got into NYU but not CLS

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Re: Guess the % admitted to NYU that are also admitted to CLS

Postby of Benito Cereno » Tue Apr 13, 2010 7:26 am

badfish wrote:Here's something equally worthless but perhaps more telling. I go to school @ NYU. I have asked many people about their decision and more than 50% of the people that I asked stated they were considering/accepted to CLS. Now, perhaps they have an incentive to lie to me and perhaps my sample isn't random but the feeling that I get is that there are a lot more cross-admits who choose NYU than you posit.


I went to an elite UG that is seen as generally a peer of Harvard college. Pretty much everyone I spoke to would say that "it was a choice between coming here and Harvard but I didn't pick Harvard because.... (too many classes taught by TAs, x department there is weak, etc). " Harvard college has an 80% yield; pretty much all of these people had to be lying. People lie.

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Re: Guess the % admitted to NYU that are also admitted to CLS

Postby spondee » Tue Apr 13, 2010 7:32 am

As its a kind of public declaration, LSN may be skewed to a more prestige-loving population. In that category, CLS is bound to win.

As an NYU student, I'll concede that there's probably a significant number that didn't make it into Columbia. Is that significant number a majority? I dunno; I doubt it. But it is definitely not 80%. Frankly, I've been surprised by the number that chose NYU over Columbia and the number that chose NYU over Harvard. In both cases, the 'feel' of the schools often made the difference. Additionally, some classmates went to Columbia for undergrad and didn't want to repeat for grad. Some classmates hated Harvard when they visited. Some have very nice (full-ride) scholarships.

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Re: Guess the % admitted to NYU that are also admitted to CLS

Postby of Benito Cereno » Tue Apr 13, 2010 7:40 am

Unemployed wrote:Warning: Guesstimates based on "common knowledge" forthcoming. There's no way to verify the common knowledge, of course.

Assumption 1: 10% of the student body at each school were accepted to YHS (too generous?). Obviously, these people got into both CLS and NYU.

Assumption 2: Nearly everyone at CLS got into NYU - say 90% (NYU admissions is a numbers-based rubber stamp process, and most at CLS "qualify")

Assumption 3: CLS takes 2/3 of the cross admits, NYU takes 1/3. This is excluding people who get into both but choose to go elsewhere.

Under this scenario, here's the breakdown of the CLS student body.

40 (10%): got into YHS, CLS and NYU

320 (80%) got into CLS and NYU
40 (10%) got into CLS but not NYU

Based on this, the # of people who got into both but chose NYU is 160. So the breakdown at NYU is:

45 (10%): got into YHS, CLS and NYU
160 (36%): got into CLS and NYU
245 (54%): got into NYU but not CLS


I don't see why those are the correct assumptions to make. They seem pretty random. One could just as easily say 44% instead of 36% etc.

Also, even if 80% us high it seems pretty clear that the vast majority of cross-admits choose cls. the only students on lsn who went to nyu were those who had a bunch more money at nyu.
but if you compare lsn stats (and people have done this on tls) to publicly released data on things such as admitted %, yield rates, lsat/gpa medians and 25th/75ths lsn is basically pretty close. Sure it is sometimes slightly off (for example, like 18% admitted to hls instead of 11%) but its never just completely off. If lsn shows that 80% of nyu students did not get into cls then its really quite hard to believe that in reality more than half of nyu students actually got in. You can argue that lsn overplays it some but to say that really over 50% got in when lsn shows 20%... that requires more than anecdotes or gut feelings.

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Re: Guess the % admitted to NYU that are also admitted to CLS

Postby spondee » Tue Apr 13, 2010 8:01 am

18% v 11% is a BIG difference. Certainly greater than "slightly off." That makes me believe the 80% number even less.

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Re: Guess the % admitted to NYU that are also admitted to CLS

Postby of Benito Cereno » Tue Apr 13, 2010 8:13 am

spondee wrote:18% v 11% is a BIG difference. Certainly greater than "slightly off." That makes me believe the 80% number even less.

the difference between 18% and 11.9 is not the same as the difference between 80% and 40%. Also, there is a very clear reason for why the admit rate would be a little higher (students with better numbers are also more likely to take the process seriously enough to use LSN), don't really see such a clear cut reason why the students listed as matriculating at nyu would be so radically off. lsn tends to be pretty accurate. its not perfect but its never really more than 10% off in admit rates and almost always extremely accurate with gpa and lsat medians etc. lsn does give a pretty accurate picture of reality even if its not a prefect statistical representation. LSN presents this picture of reality: of cross admits well over the majority go to CLS. That is a broad general picture and one that I think is pretty clearly true. Can anyone here really argue that of any given 100 students admitted to both schools half go to nyu? Thats just very obviously false. If half of nyu students got into cls that would mean they were drawing roughly an equal % of the cross admits... we all know thats false. lsn isn't perfect but its not completely useless. if it shows that 80% of nyu students did not get into cls then i think its fair to say that probably 2/3 of nyu students, and definitely certainly positively at least half, did not get into cls.
I know its hard to admit, just like everyone at my UG liked to think that they were surrounded by people that turned down Harvard college, but nyu is not filled with people who could have been at columbia. It is filled with a few who turned down columbia (mostly for $), a whole bunch of ED applicants, and a whole lot of cls rejects and waitlists.

nyu admits 23%, chicago admits 16%, and cls admits 15.5%...

just look at lsn. 80% of matriculating nyu students were not admitted to columbia. this is the only piece of actual data we have. everything else is just anecdote and "i don't want to believe it." until somebody shows something that isn't just fluff and conjecture then the numbers are authoritative enough to give us a general picture of the nyu class. conjecture and anecdote can be used to weigh one piece of data against another (say if the data on another site contradicted lsn) but we only have lsn and lsn is quite clear.
also, there is no real reason not to believe the data. nyu is great and even if cls places better outside nyc/(and even somewhat better inside) and does better at clerkships/academia I think its faculty is better and basically should be considered quite seriously by any cross admit. still, we know that people aren't perfectly reasonable angels. At the end of the day: CLS IS RANKED HIGHER, IVY LEAGUE, WAY MORE LAY PRESTIGE, AND HIGHER JUDGE/LAWYER PRESTIGE SCORES. Why would we not expected CLS to take the vast majority of cross admits.
Last edited by of Benito Cereno on Tue Apr 13, 2010 9:28 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Guess the % admitted to NYU that are also admitted to CLS

Postby Unemployed » Tue Apr 13, 2010 9:27 am

of Benito Cereno wrote:
Unemployed wrote:Warning: Guesstimates based on "common knowledge" forthcoming. There's no way to verify the common knowledge, of course.

Assumption 1: 10% of the student body at each school were accepted to YHS (too generous?). Obviously, these people got into both CLS and NYU.

Assumption 2: Nearly everyone at CLS got into NYU - say 90% (NYU admissions is a numbers-based rubber stamp process, and most at CLS "qualify")

Assumption 3: CLS takes 2/3 of the cross admits, NYU takes 1/3. This is excluding people who get into both but choose to go elsewhere.

Under this scenario, here's the breakdown of the CLS student body.

40 (10%): got into YHS, CLS and NYU

320 (80%) got into CLS and NYU
40 (10%) got into CLS but not NYU

Based on this, the # of people who got into both but chose NYU is 160. So the breakdown at NYU is:

45 (10%): got into YHS, CLS and NYU
160 (36%): got into CLS and NYU
245 (54%): got into NYU but not CLS


I don't see why those are the correct assumptions to make. They seem pretty random. One could just as easily say 44% instead of 36% etc.


I'm not sure you understand what I did there. 36% (of the student body at NYU) is the mathematical consequence of the 1/3-2/3 cross admit split.

As for the assumptions, it's something I heard more than once here or there. I think the 1/3-2/3 cross admit split isn't too far from the truth.

Edit: That sais, I totally forgot to account for ED, which adversely affects both schools.

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Re: Guess the % admitted to NYU that are also admitted to CLS

Postby of Benito Cereno » Tue Apr 13, 2010 9:31 am

Unemployed wrote:
of Benito Cereno wrote:
Unemployed wrote:Warning: Guesstimates based on "common knowledge" forthcoming. There's no way to verify the common knowledge, of course.

Assumption 1: 10% of the student body at each school were accepted to YHS (too generous?). Obviously, these people got into both CLS and NYU.

Assumption 2: Nearly everyone at CLS got into NYU - say 90% (NYU admissions is a numbers-based rubber stamp process, and most at CLS "qualify")

Assumption 3: CLS takes 2/3 of the cross admits, NYU takes 1/3. This is excluding people who get into both but choose to go elsewhere.

Under this scenario, here's the breakdown of the CLS student body.

40 (10%): got into YHS, CLS and NYU

320 (80%) got into CLS and NYU
40 (10%) got into CLS but not NYU

Based on this, the # of people who got into both but chose NYU is 160. So the breakdown at NYU is:

45 (10%): got into YHS, CLS and NYU
160 (36%): got into CLS and NYU
245 (54%): got into NYU but not CLS


I don't see why those are the correct assumptions to make. They seem pretty random. One could just as easily say 44% instead of 36% etc.


I'm not sure you understand what I did there. 36% (of the student body at NYU) is the mathematical consequence of the 1/3-2/3 cross admit split.

As for the assumptions, it's something I heard more than once here or there. I think the 1/3-2/3 cross admit split isn't too far from the truth.


yea, i'm saying the 1/3-2/3 assumption is somewhat random and any slight change in that assumption would change the percentages you draw from it. given that the first assumption is so vague its deceptive to draw such numerically specific conclusions from it. Also, the % admitted to hys is likely quite a bit less than 10% at nyu (and likely less at cls too), also pretty clear that almost 0% of non-ed cls students were not admitted to nyu. but anyways, no major objections even if i think your assumptions are a little too charitable.

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Re: Guess the % admitted to NYU that are also admitted to CLS

Postby of Benito Cereno » Tue Apr 13, 2010 3:38 pm

well if 80% of nyu students didn't get into cls last year I guess nyu's cross-admit yield is about to get a whole lot worse. If Columbia is 4 and NYU is 6, with CLS's score closer to SLS than NYU I think CLS is not going to lose very many admits to nyu. In fact, with SLS at 93 (assessment scores of 4.7/4.8), CLS at 91(4.7, 4.6) , and NYU at 87 (4.5, 4.4) I don't see why CLS is in the same tier as nyu and not sls.

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Re: Guess the % admitted to NYU that are also admitted to CLS

Postby englawyer » Tue Apr 13, 2010 4:05 pm

this poll is kind of annoying because >50 automatically includes >60,>70, etc :wink:




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