For those that are applying in the fall...

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letsdoit1982
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For those that are applying in the fall...

Postby letsdoit1982 » Fri Feb 19, 2010 3:36 pm

I just thought you should know that it's going to be a bloodbath. Look how many more people are taking the LSAT this year alone http://members.lsac.org/Public/MainPage ... Page2.aspx (click Data and then LSATs Administered). Next cycle is going to be insane. There's just to many that are trying to avoid the economy, so they've decided to go to law school and become rich :roll:

too old for this sh*
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Re: For those that are applying in the fall...

Postby too old for this sh* » Fri Feb 19, 2010 4:36 pm

I'd be more inclined to look at the number of Credential Assembly Service registrations...which, while up over the past year are actually still below the numbers that followed the dot bomb implosion (I know, an event that probably took place while many here were still in high school if not junior high).

r6_philly
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Re: For those that are applying in the fall...

Postby r6_philly » Fri Feb 19, 2010 5:05 pm

+1 many people are taking the test more times than ever before since they stopped averaging scores (and the prep companies made a better push to convince people that the test is highly learnable?)

I am curious to find out what the median LSAT for those who just started considering law school senior year in college due to the weak job market. I know at my UG an unprecedent amount of people are trying to get into all kinds of grad schools, but the candidate quality is not as high as the people who had already planned to pursue post UG education. Maybe the bloodbath will take place well below the top 50 or even in T3 and T4 schools.

letsdoit1982
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Re: For those that are applying in the fall...

Postby letsdoit1982 » Sun Feb 21, 2010 2:19 pm

r6_philly wrote:+1 many people are taking the test more times than ever before since they stopped averaging scores (and the prep companies made a better push to convince people that the test is highly learnable?)

I am curious to find out what the median LSAT for those who just started considering law school senior year in college due to the weak job market. I know at my UG an unprecedent amount of people are trying to get into all kinds of grad schools, but the candidate quality is not as high as the people who had already planned to pursue post UG education. Maybe the bloodbath will take place well below the top 50 or even in T3 and T4 schools.


I wish, but the schools that see the biggest increase in apps are in the top 14. T3s and T4s see the least increase.

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devilishangelrjp
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Re: For those that are applying in the fall...

Postby devilishangelrjp » Sun Feb 21, 2010 2:27 pm

I heard somewhere that even though more students are taking the LSAT, that a big portion of those students don't matriculate in the coming cycle. Is this true, or was someone selling me something?

I mean, I guess I can see it from the kids who are still like sophomores and juniors in college, but is that really such a big portion of the LSAT-takers?

r6_philly
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Re: For those that are applying in the fall...

Postby r6_philly » Sun Feb 21, 2010 4:30 pm

letsdoit1982 wrote:I wish, but the schools that see the biggest increase in apps are in the top 14. T3s and T4s see the least increase.


That makes sense because everyone who is jumping want to reach for better schools. But a big increase in apps doesn't mean that the quality of the increased apps will be evenly spread across the spectrum. I mean we don't know, maybe 80% of the extra apps land in below median, or below 25%. Maybe people are saying my stats are almost enough so why not take a shot?

It is like the job market. Many hiring managers are seeing a 10 fold increase in job applications but the number of "qualified" applicants are dropping like stones. People are just sending apps everywhere in hope to get a job somewhere regardless if they really fit the qualifications.

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PrayingforHYS
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Re: For those that are applying in the fall...

Postby PrayingforHYS » Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:31 pm

letsdoit1982 wrote:Look how many more people are taking the LSAT this year alone


good. this way, a 175 on the LSAT (which is 99% percentile) will include more people, since 1% of X+extra people taking in 2010 is more than 1% of X that normally take it.

...or at least that seems to make sense statistically.

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tomhobbes
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Re: For those that are applying in the fall...

Postby tomhobbes » Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:39 pm

PrayingforHYS wrote:
letsdoit1982 wrote:Look how many more people are taking the LSAT this year alone


good. this way, a 175 on the LSAT (which is 99% percentile) will include more people, since 1% of X+extra people taking in 2010 is more than 1% of X that normally take it.

...or at least that seems to make sense statistically.


If you are saying that the more people who take the test, the more high scores there are, I am inclined to agree with you...

letsdoit1982
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Re: For those that are applying in the fall...

Postby letsdoit1982 » Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:40 pm

tomhobbes wrote:
PrayingforHYS wrote:
letsdoit1982 wrote:Look how many more people are taking the LSAT this year alone


good. this way, a 175 on the LSAT (which is 99% percentile) will include more people, since 1% of X+extra people taking in 2010 is more than 1% of X that normally take it.

...or at least that seems to make sense statistically.


If you are saying that the more people who take the test, the more high scores there are, I am inclined to agree with you...


+1 LOL

r6_philly
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Re: For those that are applying in the fall...

Postby r6_philly » Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:43 pm

PrayingforHYS wrote:
letsdoit1982 wrote:Look how many more people are taking the LSAT this year alone


good. this way, a 175 on the LSAT (which is 99% percentile) will include more people, since 1% of X+extra people taking in 2010 is more than 1% of X that normally take it.

...or at least that seems to make sense statistically.



1. more people are taking multiple times, so maybe there isn't really an increase of test taker count, only an increase of tests taken. Or at least maybe the increase is not so dramatic.

2. since they round to a whole integer for percentile it doesn't really show whether there are actually more people getting 175 (maybe the extras are skewed toward the bottom half). For example:1.4% of 20,000 is 280. 1.0% of 28,000 is 280. So if there are 280 people score 175 on 2 different tests, 1 has a total of 20,000 tester and the other 28,000 they will still both come out to be 99% tile due to rounding. so in effect 1% of x+extra people is not necessarily more than 1% of x people.

itsfine
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Re: For those that are applying in the fall...

Postby itsfine » Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:47 pm

and more importantly, why is that good? i understand that more people will do very 'well', but the number of students law schools can fit is more or less fixed. so the more high scorers means the more competition....even for the high scorers.

letsdoit1982
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Re: For those that are applying in the fall...

Postby letsdoit1982 » Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:49 pm

r6_philly wrote:
PrayingforHYS wrote:
letsdoit1982 wrote:Look how many more people are taking the LSAT this year alone


good. this way, a 175 on the LSAT (which is 99% percentile) will include more people, since 1% of X+extra people taking in 2010 is more than 1% of X that normally take it.

...or at least that seems to make sense statistically.



1. more people are taking multiple times, so maybe there isn't really an increase of test taker count, only an increase of tests taken. Or at least maybe the increase is not so dramatic.

2. since they round to a whole integer for percentile it doesn't really show whether there are actually more people getting 175 (maybe the extras are skewed toward the bottom half). For example:1.4% of 20,000 is 280. 1.0% of 28,000 is 280. So if there are 280 people score 175 on 2 different tests, 1 has a total of 20,000 tester and the other 28,000 they will still both come out to be 99% tile due to rounding. so in effect 1% of x+extra people is not necessarily more than 1% of x people.


It's a stretch to say that this unprecedented increase in those statistics is primarily attributed to people taking the LSAT multiple times. The ABA has been asking law schools to accept the highest score for a couple years now, but there hasn't been a significant increase in LSAT volume until this cycle (coincidentally the same time the economy tanked).

Also, what are you doing on TLS anyway? You look entirely too young to be applying to law school.
Last edited by letsdoit1982 on Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:56 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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PrayingforHYS
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Re: For those that are applying in the fall...

Postby PrayingforHYS » Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:50 pm

tomhobbes wrote:
PrayingforHYS wrote:
letsdoit1982 wrote:Look how many more people are taking the LSAT this year alone


good. this way, a 175 on the LSAT (which is 99% percentile) will include more people, since 1% of X+extra people taking in 2010 is more than 1% of X that normally take it.

...or at least that seems to make sense statistically.


If you are saying that the more people who take the test, the more high scores there are, I am inclined to agree with you...


lol, not quite. Obviously, if 5000 rather than 4000 people take the LSAT in june, then there are going to be more 170s and 175s etc etc, but what i mean is that, technically, it should be easier to score higher (assuming you're a 170+ PT'er or whatever), since the extra number of people taking the test will cause the standard deviation in the raw scoring to fluctuate more than it normally would, meaning that if a -6 total is usually a 175, then maybe a -8 will be just as good this time. Who knows? It's just a theory. Seems sound, though.

letsdoit1982
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Re: For those that are applying in the fall...

Postby letsdoit1982 » Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:51 pm

PrayingforHYS wrote:
tomhobbes wrote:
PrayingforHYS wrote:
letsdoit1982 wrote:Look how many more people are taking the LSAT this year alone


good. this way, a 175 on the LSAT (which is 99% percentile) will include more people, since 1% of X+extra people taking in 2010 is more than 1% of X that normally take it.

...or at least that seems to make sense statistically.


If you are saying that the more people who take the test, the more high scores there are, I am inclined to agree with you...


lol, not quite. Obviously, if 5000 rather than 4000 people take the LSAT in june, then there are going to be more 170s and 175s etc etc, but what i mean is that, technically, it should be easier to score higher, since the extra number of people taking the test will cause the standard deviation in the raw scoring to fluctuate more than it normally would, meaning that if a -6 total is usually a 175, then maybe a -8 will be just as good this time. Who knows? It's just a theory. Seems sound, though.


This is a good question actually, but I think it will have no effect. For some reason, the median LSAT score has hovered right around 151 forever.

r6_philly
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Re: For those that are applying in the fall...

Postby r6_philly » Mon Feb 22, 2010 12:08 am

PrayingforHYS wrote:
tomhobbes wrote:
PrayingforHYS wrote:
letsdoit1982 wrote:Look how many more people are taking the LSAT this year alone


good. this way, a 175 on the LSAT (which is 99% percentile) will include more people, since 1% of X+extra people taking in 2010 is more than 1% of X that normally take it.

...or at least that seems to make sense statistically.


If you are saying that the more people who take the test, the more high scores there are, I am inclined to agree with you...


lol, not quite. Obviously, if 5000 rather than 4000 people take the LSAT in june, then there are going to be more 170s and 175s etc etc, but what i mean is that, technically, it should be easier to score higher (assuming you're a 170+ PT'er or whatever), since the extra number of people taking the test will cause the standard deviation in the raw scoring to fluctuate more than it normally would, meaning that if a -6 total is usually a 175, then maybe a -8 will be just as good this time. Who knows? It's just a theory. Seems sound, though.



convertion table (and the -XX for 170) is determined from the combined difficulty of the test, not the number of test takers.

If the determined difficulty is -12 for a 170, it would be that case for 1 person taking the test or 10000000000 people taking the test.

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mirpanda
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Re: For those that are applying in the fall...

Postby mirpanda » Mon Feb 22, 2010 12:12 am

Dammit. That's all I have to say about it. No optimistic interpretations in an attempt to relieve cognitive dissonance... Just dammit.

r6_philly
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Re: For those that are applying in the fall...

Postby r6_philly » Mon Feb 22, 2010 12:15 am

letsdoit1982 wrote:
It's a stretch to say that this unprecedented increase in those statistics is primarily attributed to people taking the LSAT multiple times. The ABA has been asking law schools to accept the highest score for a couple years now, but there hasn't been a significant increase in LSAT volume until this cycle (coincidentally the same time the economy tanked).

Also, what are you doing on TLS anyway? You look entirely too young to be applying to law school.


It is a stretch to say anything about data that we don't have access to. Didn't you learn in the first chapter of stats class that data can be intepreted many opposing ways so it is important to have complete data? misrepreseted stats are worse than no stats. You are making a seemingly reasonable causal connection with nothing but circumstancial evidence. What if there are actually an increase in graduating college seniors this year because the birthrate was somehow spiked higher 21 years ago or something like that. This almost sound like a LR question...

The suit looks good therefore I must be a lawyer...

letsdoit1982
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Re: For those that are applying in the fall...

Postby letsdoit1982 » Mon Feb 22, 2010 12:21 am

r6_philly wrote:
letsdoit1982 wrote:
It's a stretch to say that this unprecedented increase in those statistics is primarily attributed to people taking the LSAT multiple times. The ABA has been asking law schools to accept the highest score for a couple years now, but there hasn't been a significant increase in LSAT volume until this cycle (coincidentally the same time the economy tanked).

Also, what are you doing on TLS anyway? You look entirely too young to be applying to law school.


It is a stretch to say anything about data that we don't have access to. Didn't you learn in the first chapter of stats class that data can be intepreted many opposing ways so it is important to have complete data? misrepreseted stats are worse than no stats. You are making a seemingly reasonable causal connection with nothing but circumstancial evidence. What if there are actually an increase in graduating college seniors this year because the birthrate was somehow spiked higher 21 years ago or something like that. This almost sound like a LR question...

The suit looks good therefore I must be a lawyer...


I'm not saying that I'm 100% sure that the increase isn't mostly attributable to people taking the LSAT multiple times, but I do think (IMHO) that it isn't.




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