How Accurate is Law School Predictor?

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CyLaw
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Re: How Accurate is Law School Predictor?

Postby CyLaw » Mon Feb 15, 2010 12:03 pm

TheSharklord wrote:
CyLaw wrote:
TheSharklord wrote:I think it draws all of its data from LSN. It's the same as looking at the numbers yourself, with the provision that to do it as well as LSP you'd have to be able to look at all the data simultaneously, process decision trends, generate theoretical LSAT/GPA weights, etc. Which is hard to do with any unbiased accuracy.

Anyhow, like any statistical model, it's only as good as your data. And for URMs and heavy splitters, and goodness knows the intersection of the two (which I am), there's not as much data to support the conclusions because you're on the edge of the numbers.

Anyhow, while LSN may not be perfect for individual data points (w/ flames, fudged numbers, etc.) on the whole, there are a ton of data by now so the trends are fairly strong if you're a "standard" applicant...

My 2 cents.


It does not draw its data from LSN. The LSN data was only used for accuracy testing and refinement, AFTER the models were created.

http://www.lawschoolpredictor.com/?page_id=173


From LSP Site wrote:Law School Predictor is of far greater use to applicants when applicants can gauge the accuracy of LSP predictions. These results are based off of more than 33,500 Law School Numbers-listed law school admission decisions from the 2008-09 cycle for all ABA schools listed on both LSN and LSP. The version of LSP tested was Version 2.4. A big thanks goes out to TLS forum member CyLaw for compiling the data from LSN; I couldn’t have done it without CyLaw.


Not sure I follow. That pretty much reads as the LSN being the data source to me. Insofar as data and statistical modeling are inextricably tied together (with no data a model is as good as a theory with no proof, made without any natural observation--ie nothing at all), I think I disagree, unless I have a fundamental misunderstanding of how LSP works (which is always possible--say, "Weak Consider" =P)


It might help if you look at the title of the page you quoted that from, namely the page Accuracy, which was the results of an accuracy analysis ran a year after the creation of LSP. I know this for a fact, as I was the one who supplied the LSN data a year AFTER the first LSP was initially created, so the models were not created from LSN data, as LSP did not have such data until I gave it to them after they were created.

Edit: You will have to ask YC where the initial data came from for LSP, but it was not LSN.

PoliticalJunkie
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Re: How Accurate is Law School Predictor?

Postby PoliticalJunkie » Mon Feb 15, 2010 12:16 pm

Its very good for traditional candidates, i.e. college students/1-2 yr w/e. It's not very accurate for non traditional candidates who have 3+ yrs w/e, grad degrees, etc....

So far it's been pretty dead on with my safeties but way off on my targets and reaches. I even got into a school that it said was going to deny me.

Take LSP with a grain of salt if you're a non trad.

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TheSharklord
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Re: How Accurate is Law School Predictor?

Postby TheSharklord » Mon Feb 15, 2010 12:53 pm

It might help if you look at the title of the page you quoted that from, namely the page Accuracy, which was the results of an accuracy analysis ran a year after the creation of LSP. I know this for a fact, as I was the one who supplied the LSN data a year AFTER the first LSP was initially created, so the models were not created from LSN data, as LSP did not have such data until I gave it to them after they were created.

Edit: You will have to ask YC where the initial data came from for LSP, but it was not LSN.


Ahhh, gotcha. I'm with you then =) Though it'd be cool to knw where the initial data came from for curiosity's sake...

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mpasi
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Re: How Accurate is Law School Predictor?

Postby mpasi » Mon Feb 15, 2010 1:44 pm

This is one example of why LSN can't be trusted completely. The lie is pretty obvious here, but others don't go nuts with their fake acceptances.

http://lawschoolnumbers.com/flextequiero

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TheSharklord
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Re: How Accurate is Law School Predictor?

Postby TheSharklord » Mon Feb 15, 2010 2:51 pm

mpasi wrote:This is one example of why LSN can't be trusted completely. The lie is pretty obvious here, but others don't go nuts with their fake acceptances.

http://lawschoolnumbers.com/flextequiero


I dunno...partying is a pretty intense major. Could give rise to a nice GPA addendum... I hear for the final you have to finish a handle of vodka in an hour, with a 3rd of a letter grade deducted for every shot remaining...

ughOSU
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Re: How Accurate is Law School Predictor?

Postby ughOSU » Mon Feb 15, 2010 3:11 pm

TheSharklord wrote:
mpasi wrote:This is one example of why LSN can't be trusted completely. The lie is pretty obvious here, but others don't go nuts with their fake acceptances.

http://lawschoolnumbers.com/flextequiero


I dunno...partying is a pretty intense major. Could give rise to a nice GPA addendum... I hear for the final you have to finish a handle of vodka in an hour, with a 3rd of a letter grade deducted for every shot remaining...

Partying was the default pre-law track at my school. being able to drink heavily and make it to class on 3 hours of drunk sleep really prepares one for being a lawyer.

I like how the person put a WL for Harvard. Just threw it in there to look legit.

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YCrevolution
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Re: How Accurate is Law School Predictor?

Postby YCrevolution » Mon Feb 15, 2010 9:01 pm

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D Brooks
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Re: How Accurate is Law School Predictor?

Postby D Brooks » Mon Feb 15, 2010 9:04 pm

mpasi wrote:I played around with it the other day and was pleasantly surprised with my results, albeit somewhat skeptical. What are the results based on?


Didn't read the thread but it's worthless for URM admissions.

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YCrevolution
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Re: How Accurate is Law School Predictor?

Postby YCrevolution » Mon Feb 15, 2010 9:09 pm

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mpasi
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Re: How Accurate is Law School Predictor?

Postby mpasi » Tue Feb 16, 2010 1:24 am

So, since it gave me a 40% chance at Catholic, should I be thinking I have a 50/50 shot instead?

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twert
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Re: How Accurate is Law School Predictor?

Postby twert » Tue Feb 16, 2010 1:56 am

mpasi wrote:So, since it gave me a 40% chance at Catholic, should I be thinking I have a 50/50 shot instead?

probably a lot higher than 50

acdisagod
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Re: How Accurate is Law School Predictor?

Postby acdisagod » Wed Feb 17, 2010 3:24 pm

Well I just got waitlisted somewhere that had me as a greater than 95% chance admit so I guess it's anything but full-proof. I'll let you know how well it predicts the rest of my cycle soon.

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YCrevolution
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Re: How Accurate is Law School Predictor?

Postby YCrevolution » Wed Feb 17, 2010 4:28 pm

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carlkenneth
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Re: How Accurate is Law School Predictor?

Postby carlkenneth » Wed Feb 17, 2010 5:01 pm

I have to agree - LSP is pretty inaccurate when it comes to URM and Non-trad applicant cycles, and those with strong soft factors. I am both and it was almost completely useless for me. I was admitted to all of the schools that it indicated would 'Deny' me or give me 'Weak Consideration'. Had I not taken LSP so seriously I may have applied to additional schools - definitely some that were ranked higher.

wired
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Re: How Accurate is Law School Predictor?

Postby wired » Wed Feb 17, 2010 5:10 pm

LSP, I believe, uses a mixture of indexes (which are available on LSAC's website for most schools) and LSN.

savesthedayajb
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Re: How Accurate is Law School Predictor?

Postby savesthedayajb » Wed Feb 17, 2010 5:11 pm

So far, every Admit school has accepted me and I was waitlisted by a Consider. That's from 9 different schools and I'm a reverse splitter.

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booboo
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Re: How Accurate is Law School Predictor?

Postby booboo » Wed Feb 17, 2010 5:15 pm

LSP is a convenient tool, offered for free, and only tries to estimate your chances of admission. It isn't as if it is just guessing. Let's appreciate YCrev a little, lol.

**Please make better looking shirts.

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YCrevolution
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Re: How Accurate is Law School Predictor?

Postby YCrevolution » Wed Feb 17, 2010 5:18 pm

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T14Hopeful09
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Re: How Accurate is Law School Predictor?

Postby T14Hopeful09 » Wed Feb 17, 2010 5:30 pm

I would say it does not work AT ALL for URMS. It predicted I would be denied at every school on my list. Of course, I’ve been accepted to 7 of 10 and haven’t been rejected from any thus far. I’m a testament to law schools looking beyond numbers.

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YCrevolution
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Re: How Accurate is Law School Predictor?

Postby YCrevolution » Wed Feb 17, 2010 5:38 pm

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GobiasIndustries
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Re: How Accurate is Law School Predictor?

Postby GobiasIndustries » Wed Feb 17, 2010 5:49 pm

I'm a URM non-splitter and it was pretty accurate for me. I got WL'd at one my Denys but that was the only inconsistency.

buffalo
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Re: How Accurate is Law School Predictor?

Postby buffalo » Wed Feb 17, 2010 7:02 pm

YCrevolution wrote:
acdisagod wrote:Well I just got waitlisted somewhere that had me as a greater than 95% chance admit so I guess it's anything but full-proof. I'll let you know how well it predicts the rest of my cycle soon.

Not greater than a 95% chance, but "Admit" (the textual prediction). I need to rename (or remove) the field again because people believe that it's a % chance, when it's a % estimate of where your index score would fall in comparison to the Class of 2011 (and I make no claims as to its precision or accuracy).

Maybe YP?


Just to clarify, you are basically saying that the "percentage" that is given is basically a combined percentage of how you come out of a numerical index for the school based on GPA + LSAT, a formula which is itself particular given on the school, correct? So a 69% would mean that your index score is at the 69th percentile for the school's index? And, finally, for those schools that don't have published indices, that you have approximated them through empirical results and their published percentiles?

I looked at your site again and I think this is what you are saying, though I think I missed it the first time. Anyways, thanks for site, I've found it a very useful resource, especially when I figured out everything it actually does (I'm one who was probably misled somewhat by the initial categories myself!).

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YCrevolution
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Re: How Accurate is Law School Predictor?

Postby YCrevolution » Wed Feb 17, 2010 8:48 pm

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rundoxierun
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Re: How Accurate is Law School Predictor?

Postby rundoxierun » Wed Feb 17, 2010 9:24 pm

Hey YC, have you seen anything in the data indicating that big score differences are being averaged??(by big, I mean 10+ point diffs between two takes.)

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YCrevolution
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Re: How Accurate is Law School Predictor?

Postby YCrevolution » Wed Feb 17, 2010 9:38 pm

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