MA chances

(BLS, URM status, non-traditional, GLBT)
jstudylouie

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Posts: 1
Joined: Sun Jan 12, 2020 10:28 pm

MA chances

Postby jstudylouie » Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:11 pm

Hello!

Getting a bit anxious as my retake comes up, and was hoping to see if people could help chance me for the next fall cycle.

I’m a Mexican American, with a 3.9 undergrad from a top 20/30 school that will go down to maybe 3.88/9 with the LSAC calculation. Scored a 167. Will be a year out of school when I applied. some good internships and work but nothing crazy. I’ve seen a lot of posts for URM chances regarding AA admission, but was wondering where I would stand given my profile.

Especially in regard to Columbia, NYU, Uchicago, and Harvard (one can dream).

Thank you!

nothingnothing2727

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Posts: 4
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:55 pm

Re: MA chances

Postby nothingnothing2727 » Sat Jan 25, 2020 2:59 am

Hi, so I feel your pain with a lack of data for us. Here is what I posted on another forum, as it's relevant here too:

"My GPA is very similar to yours. I have a 166 LSAT and I'm MA too. We are in a VERY similar spot this cycle.

I have done COUNTLESS research trying to find data points, but there are not too many.

One great thing to note about your GPA is that you meet the "cut off," as I like to call it, for the T14. A GPA of ~3.65 (URM non AA) and under is pretty much rejected at T7 with an LSAT under 168. The wiggle room for URMs comes in the form of LSAT points, NOT GPA. I find this interesting, yet predictable after I thought about it. Here is my explanation for this: the top schools typically will accept 178/179/180 non-URM applicants with GPAs of 3.0 and above, which are GPAs far from their medians. Their strategy is to grab up all the high LSAT takers and take a hit on their GPA median for it. Now they get to URMs, which they must take. URMs, on average, have lower LSAT scores. So now the balancing act begins. The schools will take a hit on their LSAT median, but NOT GPA medians for URM non-AA applicants. That said, your great GPA will help you out VERY much at the T14 when they begin to reach down in LSAT points to get your high GPA.

Of course, this is only true for those URMs that have under a 170. At or above this point will allow one to have lower GPA and still get in.

Another topic is the data I used on LSData two weeks ago re: harvard acceptance odds. I'll just paste my notes here. Note, this is only about NUMBERS, other app stuff is not included in calculations (International, personal statements, 1st gen, LGBT, trauma, etc). I do know it's self reported, but here is my rendition about where I (and similarly, you) might stand at for Harvard:

"Harvard
URMs ONLY
1) There are 67 applicants that have a higher LSAT than me, but 20 of those have too low/unacceptable GPA the school wants (those are applicants under 169 with <3.69, 170 to 173 with <3.4 and 174+ with <3.0)= I am now 48th in line to admit.
2) Of those in front of me, statistically, 17 MAs will go to Yale over Harvard (data taken from from LSN. 17 Hispanics a year is the average. However, some might not be URM) = I am now 31th in line.
3) Stanford accepts 20 MAs a year, on average (data from LSN). So, of those accepted in front of me in line, lets say only a quarter will take the Stanford offer over the Harvard acceptance (5 go to Stanford)= I'm now 26th in line.
4) 10 people in front of me will probably be going to schools offering full rides (free school > Harvard (180+ debt)) = I'm now 16th in line.
5) Add 10 for error = I'm 26th in line at Harvard.

On average, Harvard accepts ~52 Hispanics a year (again, LSN data 156 Hispanics currently attending, divide this by 3)."

My super rough calculations say admit, but who knows. Many have stated that URM applicant cycles are very unpredictable. IMO, the cycle depends on how high non-URMs score on LSAT.

I hope this is telling. Maybe there is something I forgot here, but I got bored and wanted to crush numbers to see where I stood (and this pretty much applies to you too)."



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