URM 2015-2016 Cycle Thread

(BLS, URM status, non-traditional, GLBT)

You would turn down YSH for...(choose up to 4)

Hamilton @ CLS
43
21%
Ruby @ Chicago
29
14%
AnBryce/RTK @ NYU
26
13%
Levy @ Penn (LOL, no URM in history has ever gotten one)
13
6%
Dillard/Darrow/Full Scholarship @ UVA/Mich/Berk
25
12%
Mordecai/Full Scholly/Hughes/Full Scholly @ Duke/NW/Cornell/GULC
23
11%
Full @ Texas/UCLA/Vandy
10
5%
F* that dude...literally nothing could keep me from YSH. Debt be damned!
37
18%
 
Total votes: 206

ih8makingscreennames
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Re: URM 2015-2016 Cycle Thread

Postby ih8makingscreennames » Thu Apr 07, 2016 3:44 pm

Iam3hunna wrote:
ih8makingscreennames wrote:This bought an actual tear to my eyes, and I quite literally grabbed the necklace that I have around my neck.


This man knows what I'm talking about.


You know something about me that I don't :)

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Iam3hunna
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Re: URM 2015-2016 Cycle Thread

Postby Iam3hunna » Thu Apr 07, 2016 3:46 pm

ih8makingscreennames wrote:
Iam3hunna wrote:
ih8makingscreennames wrote:This bought an actual tear to my eyes, and I quite literally grabbed the necklace that I have around my neck.


This man knows what I'm talking about.


You know something about me that I don't :)


Lmao! My bad

Another1
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Re: URM 2015-2016 Cycle Thread

Postby Another1 » Thu Apr 07, 2016 3:47 pm

fliptrip wrote:
ert2sk wrote:
BillClinton Jr wrote:I have to agree with fliptrip on this one: those numbers are just too high but if you "HAVE" to pick one, it's Michigan easy. I hate the constant "retake/reaaply" that you hear on TLS but this may be a time where I have to be that annoying voice.


Thanks for this, but unfortunately this was my "retake/reaaply" cycle. I've been around this block before. lol.


Alright, you came asking if you were making a mistake taking Michigan over UVA in your situation and the answer is no. A major issue with advice on TLS is that it has inherent limitations. Basically I/we can do one of two things:

1. Give you some information based on an objective analysis, so what I try to do with expected payoffs and net values, etc. I
2. How we feel about your choice. A close cousin of "what I would do in your situation."

So, when I say you're only getting $10k in value by going to Michigan and you counter by talking about how meaningful it will be for you to go to a school as good as Michigan or UVA, we are talking about different things. I, the internet rando, cannot put a value on that for you. Who am I to tell you how much intrinsic value this choice will have for you? If it's immense, then terrific and I wish you nothing but the best of luck. That doesn't make my objective analysis wrong, however.

I think it's helpful though to ask yourself how you would feel if you end up in the worst-case scenario. Missing out on biglaw is a real possibility at Michigan in a way that it's not at a place like Harvard or Columbia. If you miss, and end up in something else where you aren't making six figures and probably something in the $60-$70k range more likely, will you be okay with that? Depending on what exactly the job is, you may not qualify for Michigan's LRAP or PSLF forgiveness, so you could be stuck trying to service $212k in debt on a $60k salary. How in the world would you make a $2,400 monthly payment? You wouldn't. You'd re-am your loan to 25-years, but that's going to only cut your payment to $1,478, which is serviceable in the strictest sense but will leave you only $650/month to spend on housing. So, re-amming your loan isn't going to work. You'll have to go on IBR, which will drive your payment down to $527/month, but with no PSLF forgiveness, you'll have to do that for 25 years to have the balance forgiven. But at $527/month, your loan balance is actually growing over time. It's growing and compounding so much over time that by the time you get ready to have your loan forgiven, you'll owe $745,000. The tax nuclear bomb that will drop on you that day will be $253,000.

That's not me being shrill and telling you that no school is worth $160k or that I am literally ill every time I look at any bill that says I owe something. That's just realistic numbers and objective analysis. Keep in mind that the road to that worst case scenario begins with your 33% chance of not getting biglaw at Michigan.

So, how would you feel if ^^ happens? Would you be alright or would you not?

hmm, i might retake.....

greaatttt i gotta look at the LSAT again

you really make it seem like the only way to go is HYS/free t-14....

ert2sk
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Re: URM 2015-2016 Cycle Thread

Postby ert2sk » Thu Apr 07, 2016 4:03 pm

Iam3hunna wrote:^^^^ You really have a way with words, flip. Go ahead and ruin his dreams why don't ya!?


*her dreams....and actually, my dreams are still relatively intact though. Thanks for your opinion, of course.

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jnwa
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Re: URM 2015-2016 Cycle Thread

Postby jnwa » Thu Apr 07, 2016 4:03 pm

Another1 wrote:
fliptrip wrote:
ert2sk wrote:
BillClinton Jr wrote:I have to agree with fliptrip on this one: those numbers are just too high but if you "HAVE" to pick one, it's Michigan easy. I hate the constant "retake/reaaply" that you hear on TLS but this may be a time where I have to be that annoying voice.


Thanks for this, but unfortunately this was my "retake/reaaply" cycle. I've been around this block before. lol.


Alright, you came asking if you were making a mistake taking Michigan over UVA in your situation and the answer is no. A major issue with advice on TLS is that it has inherent limitations. Basically I/we can do one of two things:

1. Give you some information based on an objective analysis, so what I try to do with expected payoffs and net values, etc. I
2. How we feel about your choice. A close cousin of "what I would do in your situation."

So, when I say you're only getting $10k in value by going to Michigan and you counter by talking about how meaningful it will be for you to go to a school as good as Michigan or UVA, we are talking about different things. I, the internet rando, cannot put a value on that for you. Who am I to tell you how much intrinsic value this choice will have for you? If it's immense, then terrific and I wish you nothing but the best of luck. That doesn't make my objective analysis wrong, however.

I think it's helpful though to ask yourself how you would feel if you end up in the worst-case scenario. Missing out on biglaw is a real possibility at Michigan in a way that it's not at a place like Harvard or Columbia. If you miss, and end up in something else where you aren't making six figures and probably something in the $60-$70k range more likely, will you be okay with that? Depending on what exactly the job is, you may not qualify for Michigan's LRAP or PSLF forgiveness, so you could be stuck trying to service $212k in debt on a $60k salary. How in the world would you make a $2,400 monthly payment? You wouldn't. You'd re-am your loan to 25-years, but that's going to only cut your payment to $1,478, which is serviceable in the strictest sense but will leave you only $650/month to spend on housing. So, re-amming your loan isn't going to work. You'll have to go on IBR, which will drive your payment down to $527/month, but with no PSLF forgiveness, you'll have to do that for 25 years to have the balance forgiven. But at $527/month, your loan balance is actually growing over time. It's growing and compounding so much over time that by the time you get ready to have your loan forgiven, you'll owe $745,000. The tax nuclear bomb that will drop on you that day will be $253,000.

That's not me being shrill and telling you that no school is worth $160k or that I am literally ill every time I look at any bill that says I owe something. That's just realistic numbers and objective analysis. Keep in mind that the road to that worst case scenario begins with your 33% chance of not getting biglaw at Michigan.

So, how would you feel if ^^ happens? Would you be alright or would you not?

hmm, i might retake.....

greaatttt i gotta look at the LSAT again

you really make it seem like the only way to go is HYS/free t-14....


Congratulations..you played yourself.

And in doing so you learned the lesson behind TLS. Go forth and retake.

texcellence
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Re: URM 2015-2016 Cycle Thread

Postby texcellence » Thu Apr 07, 2016 4:05 pm

ih8makingscreennames wrote:This bought an actual tear to my eyes, and I quite literally grabbed the necklace that I have around my neck.


LOL same

me every time flip or 180 bring the realness on LS debt:
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/73 ... 22c005.jpg

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Iam3hunna
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Re: URM 2015-2016 Cycle Thread

Postby Iam3hunna » Thu Apr 07, 2016 4:07 pm

jnwa wrote:
Congratulations..you played yourself.

And in doing so you learned the lesson behind TLS. Go forth and retake.


I found this waaaaay funnier than what I should have. :lol: :lol:

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fliptrip
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Re: URM 2015-2016 Cycle Thread

Postby fliptrip » Thu Apr 07, 2016 4:13 pm

^^ That's not true at all. It's all about the costs and the placement.

Michigan's biglaw placement is just particularly troublesome.

Let's look at Duke for example. With a $60k discount, Duke is more expensive, but it offers more value for the cost. Duke would cost $239k under that scenario, but it would deliver $54k in value, so nearly double what Michigan with a similar discount would offer.

To relate it back to the doomsday scenario, it's even worse for Duke. You end up there, you owe $888k and are hit with a $311k tax bill in 25 years, but, and this is an important but, you only have a 12% chance of having that be a risk**. I think at HYS you can be all but certain that if you want biglaw you'll get it. But beyond that, here's what I see as your biglaw miss chances at other schools:

Columbia-2%
Chicago-5%
NYU-5% *I fudge on NYU, because of PI folks
Penn-2%
UVA-15%
Berkeley-22% *I fudge here too for same reasons as NYU
Michigan-33% *maybe Michigan deserves the NYU/Berkeley treatment, if so, then this number is 28% instead.
Duke-12%
Northwestern-20%
Cornell-12%
GULC-39%

**remember, it's not a 12% chance you end up in doomsday, it's a 12% chance you miss your biglaw primary goal and have to scramble into something else. Maybe you end up in something PSLF eligible and you can work it for 10 years and walk away clean or maybe you end up in the Stephen Flip scenario. I don't know odds from that point, I just know you're on a path that could lead to reenacting your personal version of Christine, Carrie, and Pet Cemetary put together.

ert2sk
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Re: URM 2015-2016 Cycle Thread

Postby ert2sk » Thu Apr 07, 2016 4:15 pm

fliptrip wrote:
ert2sk wrote:
BillClinton Jr wrote:I have to agree with fliptrip on this one: those numbers are just too high but if you "HAVE" to pick one, it's Michigan easy. I hate the constant "retake/reaaply" that you hear on TLS but this may be a time where I have to be that annoying voice.


Thanks for this, but unfortunately this was my "retake/reaaply" cycle. I've been around this block before. lol.


Alright, you came asking if you were making a mistake taking Michigan over UVA in your situation and the answer is no. A major issue with advice on TLS is that it has inherent limitations. Basically I/we can do one of two things:

1. Give you some information based on an objective analysis, so what I try to do with expected payoffs and net values, etc. I
2. How we feel about your choice. A close cousin of "what I would do in your situation."

So, when I say you're only getting $10k in value by going to Michigan and you counter by talking about how meaningful it will be for you to go to a school as good as Michigan or UVA, we are talking about different things. I, the internet rando, cannot put a value on that for you. Who am I to tell you how much intrinsic value this choice will have for you? If it's immense, then terrific and I wish you nothing but the best of luck. That doesn't make my objective analysis wrong, however.

I think it's helpful though to ask yourself how you would feel if you end up in the worst-case scenario. Missing out on biglaw is a real possibility at Michigan in a way that it's not at a place like Harvard or Columbia. If you miss, and end up in something else where you aren't making six figures and probably something in the $60-$70k range more likely, will you be okay with that? Depending on what exactly the job is, you may not qualify for Michigan's LRAP or PSLF forgiveness, so you could be stuck trying to service $212k in debt on a $60k salary. How in the world would you make a $2,400 monthly payment? You wouldn't. You'd re-am your loan to 25-years, but that's going to only cut your payment to $1,478, which is serviceable in the strictest sense but will leave you only $650/month to spend on housing. So, re-amming your loan isn't going to work. You'll have to go on IBR, which will drive your payment down to $527/month, but with no PSLF forgiveness, you'll have to do that for 25 years to have the balance forgiven. But at $527/month, your loan balance is actually growing over time. It's growing and compounding so much over time that by the time you get ready to have your loan forgiven, you'll owe $745,000. The tax nuclear bomb that will drop on you that day will be $253,000.

That's not me being shrill and telling you that no school is worth $160k or that I am literally ill every time I look at any bill that says I owe something. That's just realistic numbers and objective analysis. Keep in mind that the road to that worst case scenario begins with your 33% chance of not getting biglaw at Michigan.

So, how would you feel if ^^ happens? Would you be alright or would you not?


Thank you for this...you answered my question in the first line however. The problem with TLS I think is that everyone on here assumes you haven't done your research, or that you aren't aware of all of this, or that you're an idiot K-JD with no clue what's actually going on. Not the case for me. As I said earlier, this is not my first time around the block. I fortunately have thoroughly done my research, and I am fully aware of the big law prospects coming out of a school like Virginia or Michigan. I also know that Michigan's LRAP is fantastic, and even if I wasn't going to go into big law, all of the other positions I would consider would absolutely qualify me for Michigan's LRAP. So there's that. Finally, I'll add that Michigan's PI numbers are higher than Virginia's for a reason. Not everyone at Mich is gunning for a big law job.

But thanks again for going through 'the worst case scenario' with me on here. When I asked about something similar to that at Virginia and Michigan ASWs, I got different answers...but hey, what do they know?

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fliptrip
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Re: URM 2015-2016 Cycle Thread

Postby fliptrip » Thu Apr 07, 2016 4:18 pm

ert2sk wrote:
But thanks again for going through 'the worst case scenario' with me on here. When I asked about something similar to that at Virginia and Michigan ASWs, I got different answers...but hey, what do they know?


Who exactly did you ask and what did they say?

Another1
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Re: URM 2015-2016 Cycle Thread

Postby Another1 » Thu Apr 07, 2016 4:20 pm

fliptrip wrote:^^ That's not true at all. It's all about the costs and the placement.

Michigan's biglaw placement is just particularly troublesome.

Let's look at Duke for example. With a $60k discount, Duke is more expensive, but it offers more value for the cost. Duke would cost $239k under that scenario, but it would deliver $54k in value, so nearly double what Michigan with a similar discount would offer.

To relate it back to the doomsday scenario, it's even worse for Duke. You end up there, you owe $888k and are hit with a $311k tax bill in 25 years, but, and this is an important but, you only have a 12% chance of having that be a risk**. I think at HYS you can be all but certain that if you want biglaw you'll get it. But beyond that, here's what I see as your biglaw miss chances at other schools:

Columbia-2%
Chicago-5%
NYU-5% *I fudge on NYU, because of PI folks
Penn-2%
UVA-15%
Berkeley-22% *I fudge here too for same reasons as NYU
Michigan-33% *maybe Michigan deserves the NYU/Berkeley treatment, if so, then this number is 28% instead.
Duke-12%
Northwestern-20%
Cornell-12%
GULC-39%

**remember, it's not a 12% chance you end up in doomsday, it's a 12% chance you miss your biglaw primary goal and have to scramble into something else. Maybe you end up in something PSLF eligible and you can work it for 10 years and walk away clean or maybe you end up in the Stephen Flip scenario. I don't know odds from that point, I just know you're on a path that could lead to reenacting your personal version of Christine, Carrie, and Pet Cemetary put together.

Diversity hiring odds don't affect those percentages at all? ( and maybe going to mich under those circumstances could be worth it if an applicant got SEO or something of that nature)

And how did Mich move up with that placement rate? Might as well call it the t-12/t-10, but then again, Big-law isn't all that these schools are good for...right?

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fliptrip
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Re: URM 2015-2016 Cycle Thread

Postby fliptrip » Thu Apr 07, 2016 4:21 pm

You really get conflicting opinions on any kind of URM effect in hiring. To me, I think it would be easier as a URM to get a job in biglaw since there are so few of us and firms want to maintain their veneer of diversity. But, I've also heard it doesn't matter and it's all about grades. I dunno, but short of some other information, I think it's wise to assume that it works the same for everyone.

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jnwa
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Re: URM 2015-2016 Cycle Thread

Postby jnwa » Thu Apr 07, 2016 4:25 pm

fliptrip wrote:^^ That's not true at all. It's all about the costs and the placement.

Michigan's biglaw placement is just particularly troublesome.

Let's look at Duke for example. With a $60k discount, Duke is more expensive, but it offers more value for the cost. Duke would cost $239k under that scenario, but it would deliver $54k in value, so nearly double what Michigan with a similar discount would offer.

To relate it back to the doomsday scenario, it's even worse for Duke. You end up there, you owe $888k and are hit with a $311k tax bill in 25 years, but, and this is an important but, you only have a 12% chance of having that be a risk**. I think at HYS you can be all but certain that if you want biglaw you'll get it. But beyond that, here's what I see as your biglaw miss chances at other schools:

Columbia-2%
Chicago-5%
NYU-5% *I fudge on NYU, because of PI folks
Penn-2%
UVA-15%
Berkeley-22% *I fudge here too for same reasons as NYU
Michigan-33% *maybe Michigan deserves the NYU/Berkeley treatment, if so, then this number is 28% instead.
Duke-12%
Northwestern-20%
Cornell-12%
GULC-39%

**remember, it's not a 12% chance you end up in doomsday, it's a 12% chance you miss your biglaw primary goal and have to scramble into something else. Maybe you end up in something PSLF eligible and you can work it for 10 years and walk away clean or maybe you end up in the Stephen Flip scenario. I don't know odds from that point, I just know you're on a path that could lead to reenacting your personal version of Christine, Carrie, and Pet Cemetary put together.


I do think Mich deserves the Berk/Nyu treatment but despite that, are firms really making fine distinctions between lower t14 schools. If the same resume with the same GPA applies to a random NYC firm, one from Cornell and one from Michigan, the Cornell grad has a better chance at getting the job? I dont know that thats true. I think people underestimate the self selection aspect of t14 hiring numbers. HYSCCN even P probably have an edge but the rest i feel like are relatively the same except for the kind of students they attract.

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fliptrip
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Re: URM 2015-2016 Cycle Thread

Postby fliptrip » Thu Apr 07, 2016 4:32 pm

We really need Michigan's 2015 employment numbers, because they are the first class that benefited from the many changes the school undertook a few years ago to address its issues with placement. Remember that Michigan had some issues with its curve being too strict, so jnwa, they were sending kids into the market with lower GPAs than their actual placement in their class would normally reflect. So in that way, your example of two very similar students coming from Cornell and Michigan would actually hurt the Michigan kid.

Again, they made big changes to address this, so let's see how it shakes out.

ert2sk
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Re: URM 2015-2016 Cycle Thread

Postby ert2sk » Thu Apr 07, 2016 4:49 pm

fliptrip wrote:
ert2sk wrote:
But thanks again for going through 'the worst case scenario' with me on here. When I asked about something similar to that at Virginia and Michigan ASWs, I got different answers...but hey, what do they know?


Who exactly did you ask and what did they say?


At Michigan ASW, I spoke to the Assistant Director of Admissions re their LRAP because I was specifically concerned about big law prospects coming out of Michigan. First, he pointed me in the direction of several students (who pointed me in the direction of several other students, both past and present) who were all able to get biglaw in their target market, many of whom were at or below median. After investigating this a bit, and reaching out to more Michigan alums about their job prospects and career trajectories, I got the impression that if you work hard at Michigan and network, you will be just fine and if you want big law, you will get it. I also got this impression from several 1Ls (black and hispanic) who had secured 1L summer positions at top firms without SEO or any other substantial connections to that market, other than having Michigan on their resume. My sense from the ASW is that Michigan alums in the top firms around the country really work to get other Michigan grads in the door. Keep in mind Michigan has a bunch of sweetheart markets and not really one huge market (i.e. NYU ----> New York, NU----> Chicago) which is nice because the students aren't all competing for the same jobs. I also spoke to a hiring manager in a large market while at Michigan's ASW and he told me that after seeing so many resumes from kids all from the same school, it was refreshing to see the occasional Michigan candidate.

As far as LRAP, Michigan's is fantastic. Hypothetically speaking, if biglaw didn't work out and I was to work in Government or PI for example, any JD required position earning less than 88k is eligible for Michigan's LRAP. At their ASW, they had an amazing panel where they brought back a few former students who worked in PI/nonprofits and were paying 0.00 in loans each month. Because of their salary, Michigan paid their loans each month, and as long as they stayed in qualifying positions, would continue to do so for ten years at which point their loans would be completely forgiven through PSLF. Those people were living comfortably (by no means extravagently), were using their law degrees in ways that made them excited to go to work each morning, and were happy with the decision to attend Michigan because of the LRAP program. In short, 200k debt without big law is not necessarily the end of the world, especially at a school with a good LRAP program.

Let's be real here. Not all of us are going to get into Harvard or Columbia. I did the best I could this cycle, and I am very proud of my results. And though I don't know where I'll fall in relation to the rest of the class or if I'll end up with biglaw, I definitely will go in with an optimistic attitude. No doubt, it's important to be aware of the 'worst case scenarios' in every situation, however, I will not let that dictate my experience in law school, or how hard I will work.

At Virginia it was more or less, "Everyone gets a biglaw job." I don't exactly know how true this is, but when I was an undergrad at UVA, I worked in the law library for three years and probably talked to hundreds of law students during that time about their job prospects. I also have tons of friends who graduated from UVA Law, most of them URM. Let's just say, none of them were unhappy. That's completely subjective though.
Last edited by ert2sk on Thu Apr 07, 2016 4:57 pm, edited 2 times in total.

ert2sk
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Re: URM 2015-2016 Cycle Thread

Postby ert2sk » Thu Apr 07, 2016 4:55 pm

fliptrip wrote:We really need Michigan's 2015 employment numbers, because they are the first class that benefited from the many changes the school undertook a few years ago to address its issues with placement. Remember that Michigan had some issues with its curve being too strict, so jnwa, they were sending kids into the market with lower GPAs than their actual placement in their class would normally reflect. So in that way, your example of two very similar students coming from Cornell and Michigan would actually hurt the Michigan kid.

Again, they made big changes to address this, so let's see how it shakes out.


Agreed.

ert2sk
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Re: URM 2015-2016 Cycle Thread

Postby ert2sk » Thu Apr 07, 2016 4:58 pm

ert2sk wrote:
fliptrip wrote:
ert2sk wrote:
But thanks again for going through 'the worst case scenario' with me on here. When I asked about something similar to that at Virginia and Michigan ASWs, I got different answers...but hey, what do they know?


Who exactly did you ask and what did they say?


At Michigan ASW, I spoke to the Assistant Director of Admissions re their LRAP because I was specifically concerned about big law prospects coming out of Michigan. First, he pointed me in the direction of several students (who pointed me in the direction of several other students, both past and present) who were all able to get biglaw in their target market, many of whom were at or below median. After investigating this a bit, and reaching out to more Michigan alums about their job prospects and career trajectories, I got the impression that if you work hard at Michigan and network, you will be just fine and if you want big law, you will get it. I also got this impression from several 1Ls (black and hispanic) who had secured 1L summer positions at top firms without SEO or any other substantial connections to that market, other than having Michigan on their resume. My sense from the ASW is that Michigan alums in the top firms around the country really work to get other Michigan grads in the door. Keep in mind Michigan has a bunch of sweetheart markets and not really one huge market (i.e. NYU ----> New York, NU----> Chicago) which is nice because the students aren't all competing for the same jobs. I also spoke to a hiring manager in a large market while at Michigan's ASW and he told me that after seeing so many resumes from kids all from the same school, it was refreshing to see the occasional Michigan candidate.

As far as LRAP, Michigan's is fantastic. Hypothetically speaking, if biglaw didn't work out and I was to work in Government or PI for example, any JD required position earning less than 88k is eligible for Michigan's LRAP. At their ASW, they had an amazing panel where they brought back a few former students who worked in PI/nonprofits and were paying 0.00 in loans each month. Because of their salary, Michigan paid their loans each month, and as long as they stayed in qualifying positions, would continue to do so for ten years at which point their loans would be completely forgiven through PSLF. Those people were living comfortably (by no means extravagently), were using their law degrees in ways that made them excited to go to work each morning, and were happy with the decision to attend Michigan because of the LRAP program. In short, 200k debt without big law is not necessarily the end of the world, especially at a school with a good LRAP program.

Let's be real here. Not all of us are going to get into Harvard or Columbia. I did the best I could this cycle, and I am very proud of my results. And though I don't know where I'll fall in relation to the rest of the class or if I'll end up with biglaw, I definitely will go in with an optimistic attitude. No doubt, it's important to be aware of the 'worst case scenarios' in every situation, however, I will not let that dictate my experience in law school, or how hard I will work.

At Virginia it was more or less, "Everyone gets a biglaw job." I don't exactly know how true this is, but when I was an undergrad at UVA, I worked in the law library for three years and probably talked to hundreds of law students during that time about their job prospects. I also have tons of friends who graduated from UVA Law, most of them URM. Let's just say, none of them were/are unhappy. Most are making $$$$$. That's completely subjective though.

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fliptrip
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Re: URM 2015-2016 Cycle Thread

Postby fliptrip » Thu Apr 07, 2016 5:00 pm

^^ thanks for that. Let me be very clear. You're not making a wrong choice going to Michigan and the odds are definitely in your favor of getting a good outcome. Beyond the numbers discussion we've been having, it looks like a great place to go to school. I wish I could tell you in more detail what I found it to be like, but they refuse to admit me.

What I get frustrated with on TLS is when people make blanket statements like, "I wouldn't pay $150k to go to law school." Or school X isn't worth Y. They will say this and offer no backup for what they are saying. Why isn't school X worth Y, Mr. TLS-er? "Uh, cuz I said so....I went to school Z (or maybe even school X) and it's just not worth that". Hmmm, that's not very compelling evidence, sir. "Uhhh, you're dumb 0L. I went to one law school, therefore, I know everything about all the law schools. Shut up." THAT conversation frustrates me.

Budfox55
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Re: URM 2015-2016 Cycle Thread

Postby Budfox55 » Thu Apr 07, 2016 5:22 pm

jnwa wrote:
fliptrip wrote:^^ That's not true at all. It's all about the costs and the placement.

Michigan's biglaw placement is just particularly troublesome.

Let's look at Duke for example. With a $60k discount, Duke is more expensive, but it offers more value for the cost. Duke would cost $239k under that scenario, but it would deliver $54k in value, so nearly double what Michigan with a similar discount would offer.

To relate it back to the doomsday scenario, it's even worse for Duke. You end up there, you owe $888k and are hit with a $311k tax bill in 25 years, but, and this is an important but, you only have a 12% chance of having that be a risk**. I think at HYS you can be all but certain that if you want biglaw you'll get it. But beyond that, here's what I see as your biglaw miss chances at other schools:

Columbia-2%
Chicago-5%
NYU-5% *I fudge on NYU, because of PI folks
Penn-2%
UVA-15%
Berkeley-22% *I fudge here too for same reasons as NYU
Michigan-33% *maybe Michigan deserves the NYU/Berkeley treatment, if so, then this number is 28% instead.
Duke-12%
Northwestern-20%
Cornell-12%
GULC-39%

**remember, it's not a 12% chance you end up in doomsday, it's a 12% chance you miss your biglaw primary goal and have to scramble into something else. Maybe you end up in something PSLF eligible and you can work it for 10 years and walk away clean or maybe you end up in the Stephen Flip scenario. I don't know odds from that point, I just know you're on a path that could lead to reenacting your personal version of Christine, Carrie, and Pet Cemetary put together.


I do think Mich deserves the Berk/Nyu treatment but despite that, are firms really making fine distinctions between lower t14 schools. If the same resume with the same GPA applies to a random NYC firm, one from Cornell and one from Michigan, the Cornell grad has a better chance at getting the job? I dont know that thats true. I think people underestimate the self selection aspect of t14 hiring numbers. HYSCCN even P probably have an edge but the rest i feel like are relatively the same except for the kind of students they attract.


I agree except for regional relationships. So I think in your example Cornell might have a slight edge, but only bc of NY. Over the last couple of months I've reached out to a good amount of attorneys who went to my undergrad/fraternity/friends family friend's, etc. It seems that people understate on TLS the influence of regional placement power outside of HYSCC (I got mixed answers for NYU). For example, if you want to end up in Chicago, you're probably better off going to NU as opposed to NYU and a Chicago firm may look at someone in the top 1/3 at NU in the same way as someone in the top 1/3 at NYU. Same with Berk over NYU/Penn for SF, Cornell over Berk for NY, etc. Outside of these regional relationships, however, it seems like firms don't really distinguish much outside of the t5/6

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magnum_law
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Re: URM 2015-2016 Cycle Thread

Postby magnum_law » Thu Apr 07, 2016 5:40 pm

fliptrip wrote:
Let's look at Duke for example. With a $60k discount, Duke is more expensive, but it offers more value for the cost. Duke would cost $239k under that scenario, but it would deliver $54k in value, so nearly double what Michigan with a similar discount would offer.


Question: How are you arriving at these 'values'? What formula can I use?

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jnwa
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Re: URM 2015-2016 Cycle Thread

Postby jnwa » Thu Apr 07, 2016 5:43 pm

Flip, the people need a spreadsheet. Also new ABA numbers are dropping this week so the people will need a revamped spreadsheet.

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fliptrip
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Re: URM 2015-2016 Cycle Thread

Postby fliptrip » Thu Apr 07, 2016 5:48 pm

Let me disclaim that this is a rough method, so please consider this an estimate.

I look at:

Implied BigLaw Odds: That's a school's (BL+FC)/80% (I automatically assume that only 80% of a class wants biglaw...I am eager to get any information that informs this estimate)

Big Law Payoff: In your big cities, NYC, Chi, LA, and I think Houston, BigLaw pays $160k your first year and $170k your second, that gives you a 2 year $330k payoff. If someone's gunning for Atlanta that number is $280k. This is what you're buying by going to law school.

COA: This is fully loaded with a 3.5% increase each year, loan origination fees and interest accruals included. So, this is usually a much more accurate figure of what you'll owe on repayment than what schools will tell you.

From there you just multiply 1 and 2 and subtract that 3 from that. So, for Duke, your value is (.88*330k)-COA. At 0 COA, you would be getting $290k of value. So, what's Duke "worth"? By Flip's method, $290k.

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magnum_law
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Re: URM 2015-2016 Cycle Thread

Postby magnum_law » Thu Apr 07, 2016 5:55 pm

It may be an estimate but at least it allows us to somewhat quantify. Awesome method, Flip. Thanks.

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fliptrip
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Re: URM 2015-2016 Cycle Thread

Postby fliptrip » Thu Apr 07, 2016 7:24 pm

And, yes, all this is changing even as we speak. Duke just posted a very, very sweet year. It's probably better to use the 3 year average on the bl+ fc statistic.

Logicmaiden
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Re: URM 2015-2016 Cycle Thread

Postby Logicmaiden » Sat Apr 09, 2016 7:27 am

Whoa. Yea, headed to law school? Make your own informed decision. All the arguments I've viewed here apply to every single law student, not just Mich vs UVA. Really?! Even if these two schools really have distinct contrasts in that realm, there is no guarantee from any school that you will get Big Law. Also, you might be able to separate yourself more so at Mich than UVA, for countless reasons.


ert2sk wrote:
Iam3hunna wrote:^^^^ You really have a way with words, flip. Go ahead and ruin his dreams why don't ya!?


*her dreams....and actually, my dreams are still relatively intact though. Thanks for your opinion, of course.




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