BlaqBella wrote: John_rizzy_rawls wrote: nick1 wrote:
OP, LSAC just released the new numbers from last cycle here: http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/resea ... -12-03.pdf
This past cycle there were -3132 test takers from the years you used in the OP, which was two years ago. The was -2000 test taker drop this last cycle.
Given the huge drop in test takers this past October and slight drop in June, we probably can assume that there will be an even smaller amount of AA's for this current cycle. Could be anywhere below 10,000 up to about 10,4000. (I think there will be at least another 1000 test taker drop this year).
Overall the test permance stayed roughly the same, but with less test takers this is welcome news for those of us applying this cycle.
Just curious for a 2013-2014 applicant, do you think this trend will continue for next year as well?
If so, when do you think it will begin to go back up?
I find this bursting of the legal bubble pretty fascinating.
+1, though I'm not that fascinated by this. I believe this decrease is dictated by fewer job prospects (at least within the USA), which places more pressure on aspiring attorneys (especially URMs) to get into the best law schools possible.
FWIW, I did some playing around on LSN and found that a 3.55+ and a 172+ is auto-admit at Harvard, based on the last decade's online statistics, 37 admits, 1 denial (that was a 3.8+ GPA - must have been a glaring app weakness/significant C&F issue/PS written in crayon).
Since 2005/2006, those numbers are 100% admit at Harvard, 75% at Yale and 70% at Stanford.
Since the law school bubble burst (2008/2009), those numbers for URMs are 100% Harvard, 80% Yale, 70% Stanford.
If that doesn't give URMs something to shoot for, then I just don't know what is.
Now all there is to do is slay myself for a 2+ point increase on my June 2013 retake. And maintain my 3.6+ GPA. Oy.