Blacks and Law School: By The Numbers

(BLS, URM status, non-traditional, GLBT)
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John_rizzy_rawls
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Re: Blacks and Law School: By The Numbers

Postby John_rizzy_rawls » Tue Jun 18, 2013 12:01 am

The mass consensus is that nothing is really happening.

But if it does, it does. Relax.

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bosmer88
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Re: Blacks and Law School: By The Numbers

Postby bosmer88 » Tue Jun 18, 2013 12:02 am

John_rizzy_rawls wrote:The mass consensus is that nothing is really happening.

But if it does, it does. Relax.


+1 Go drink some tea with honey Xixak. Or something. I agree that you are worrying too much.

Xixak
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Re: Blacks and Law School: By The Numbers

Postby Xixak » Tue Jun 18, 2013 12:20 am

bosmer88 wrote:
John_rizzy_rawls wrote:The mass consensus is that nothing is really happening.

But if it does, it does. Relax.


+1 Go drink some tea with honey Xixak. Or something. I agree that you are worrying too much.


Sorry, I'm coming across as a nervous freak in most of my threads.

The thing is I'm so scared for US college admissions now because I got destroyed in admissions in undergrad despite having really good stats and ECs.

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90convoy
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Re: Blacks and Law School: By The Numbers

Postby 90convoy » Wed Jun 19, 2013 2:28 am

Xixak wrote:
A-Modest-Proposal wrote:This is a very helpful tool, extremely comprehensive and organized.

It's unfortunate that in a matter of days, these numbers may be rendered moot - given that the supreme court is on the edge of ruling against Affirmative-action. None of us know exactly what the decision will be, but by expert opinions, it doesn't seem to look so good for Affirmative action. If it does go down, it's unclear to what extent it will be deconstructed.

At that point, the next application cycle will be very intriguing for URM applicants. It's unclear if less URM's will be admitted to top schools because of a general trend of scores that are less stellar than the non-URM applicants. But if it is the case that less are admitted, that is deeply troubling.

What I got from this thread, compiled my feelings on the looming SCOTUS decision, URM's are underperforming, and we may all need to step our game up in future cycles to ensure that we can secure our spots T14 schools. If not, the numbers of URM's will fall, and everyone loses in that scenario.


Just my luck of course this has to happen the year before my cycle.



It's only for public universities

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John_rizzy_rawls
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Re: Blacks and Law School: By The Numbers

Postby John_rizzy_rawls » Wed Jun 19, 2013 3:02 am

90convoy wrote:
Xixak wrote:
A-Modest-Proposal wrote:This is a very helpful tool, extremely comprehensive and organized.

It's unfortunate that in a matter of days, these numbers may be rendered moot - given that the supreme court is on the edge of ruling against Affirmative-action. None of us know exactly what the decision will be, but by expert opinions, it doesn't seem to look so good for Affirmative action. If it does go down, it's unclear to what extent it will be deconstructed.

At that point, the next application cycle will be very intriguing for URM applicants. It's unclear if less URM's will be admitted to top schools because of a general trend of scores that are less stellar than the non-URM applicants. But if it is the case that less are admitted, that is deeply troubling.

What I got from this thread, compiled my feelings on the looming SCOTUS decision, URM's are underperforming, and we may all need to step our game up in future cycles to ensure that we can secure our spots T14 schools. If not, the numbers of URM's will fall, and everyone loses in that scenario.


Just my luck of course this has to happen the year before my cycle.


It's only for public universities


Wrong.

If affirmative action is decided to be unconstitutional under the Equal Protection Clause (14th Amendment) of the Constitution then every university that receives any federal funding (read: every university that counts) will be prohibited from using race as a factor at all in admissions.

Probably won't happen but what you said is a misconception.

jrd93
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Re: Blacks and Law School: By The Numbers

Postby jrd93 » Wed Jun 19, 2013 3:04 am

Indeed, I was just searching for the information to correct this.

How do you guys feel about the future of AA?
I'd hate to see it go especially applying this upcoming cycle....

Xixak
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Re: Blacks and Law School: By The Numbers

Postby Xixak » Wed Jun 19, 2013 9:50 am

jrd93 wrote:Indeed, I was just searching for the information to correct this.

How do you guys feel about the future of AA?
I'd hate to see it go especially applying this upcoming cycle....


Would drastically reduce the # of URMs in T-14 classes next year.

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Mojosodope
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Re: Blacks and Law School: By The Numbers

Postby Mojosodope » Wed Jun 19, 2013 4:58 pm

John_rizzy_rawls wrote:The mass consensus is that nothing is really happening.

But if it does, it does. Relax.


What does the consensus say will happen? I am sorry if you already posted it.

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90convoy
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Re: Blacks and Law School: By The Numbers

Postby 90convoy » Wed Jun 19, 2013 5:19 pm

John_rizzy_rawls wrote:
90convoy wrote:
Xixak wrote:
A-Modest-Proposal wrote:This is a very helpful tool, extremely comprehensive and organized.

It's unfortunate that in a matter of days, these numbers may be rendered moot - given that the supreme court is on the edge of ruling against Affirmative-action. None of us know exactly what the decision will be, but by expert opinions, it doesn't seem to look so good for Affirmative action. If it does go down, it's unclear to what extent it will be deconstructed.

At that point, the next application cycle will be very intriguing for URM applicants. It's unclear if less URM's will be admitted to top schools because of a general trend of scores that are less stellar than the non-URM applicants. But if it is the case that less are admitted, that is deeply troubling.

What I got from this thread, compiled my feelings on the looming SCOTUS decision, URM's are underperforming, and we may all need to step our game up in future cycles to ensure that we can secure our spots T14 schools. If not, the numbers of URM's will fall, and everyone loses in that scenario.


Just my luck of course this has to happen the year before my cycle.


It's only for public universities


Wrong.

If affirmative action is decided to be unconstitutional under the Equal Protection Clause (14th Amendment) of the Constitution then every university that receives any federal funding (read: every university that counts) will be prohibited from using race as a factor at all in admissions.

Probably won't happen but what you said is a misconception.


My apologizes. But anyways, that sucks

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90convoy
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Re: Blacks and Law School: By The Numbers

Postby 90convoy » Wed Jun 19, 2013 5:41 pm

Mojosodope wrote:
John_rizzy_rawls wrote:The mass consensus is that nothing is really happening.

But if it does, it does. Relax.


What does the consensus say will happen? I am sorry if you already posted it.


I don't know the major consensus but, fwiw, IMO the court will
strike down UTs specific program not changing much for anyone else

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Typhoon24
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Re: Blacks and Law School: By The Numbers

Postby Typhoon24 » Thu Jun 20, 2013 12:57 pm

i have a strong hunch that this won't even affect us at all at the graduate level.

ConcernedHabsFan
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Re: Blacks and Law School: By The Numbers

Postby ConcernedHabsFan » Sat Jun 22, 2013 7:07 am

A-Modest-Proposal wrote:This is a very helpful tool, extremely comprehensive and organized.

It's unfortunate that in a matter of days, these numbers may be rendered moot - given that the supreme court is on the edge of ruling against Affirmative-action. None of us know exactly what the decision will be, but by expert opinions, it doesn't seem to look so good for Affirmative action. If it does go down, it's unclear to what extent it will be deconstructed.

At that point, the next application cycle will be very intriguing for URM applicants. It's unclear if less URM's will be admitted to top schools because of a general trend of scores that are less stellar than the non-URM applicants. But if it is the case that less are admitted, that is deeply troubling.

What I got from this thread, compiled my feelings on the looming SCOTUS decision, URM's are underperforming, and we may all need to step our game up in future cycles to ensure that we can secure our spots T14 schools. If not, the numbers of URM's will fall, and everyone loses in that scenario.



Xixak wrote:
jrd93 wrote:Indeed, I was just searching for the information to correct this.

How do you guys feel about the future of AA?
I'd hate to see it go especially applying this upcoming cycle....


Would drastically reduce the # of URMs in T-14 classes next year.


In other countries such as Canada, if you don't deserve to get into a school based on your academic achievements (grades, test scores), then you won't get in no matter what your race is.

That's how it should be. And in Canada, both politicians and deans have stated that admissions based on one's race is a sad, sad thing.

The United States and the Supreme Court is way behind on passing a law that bans race as a factor in admissions in both undergraduate and graduate school.

--LinkRemoved--
We find the trend toward race-based admission policies in some American schools deplorable, as do many of our readers. Our article notes that Canadian universities select students regardless of race or creed. That, in our view, is the best and only acceptable approach: merit should be the sole criteria for entrance to higher education in Canada, and universities should always give preference to our best and brightest regardless of cultural background.

jrd93
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Re: Blacks and Law School: By The Numbers

Postby jrd93 » Sat Jun 22, 2013 7:24 am

Typhoon24 wrote:i have a strong hunch that this won't even affect us at all at the graduate level.


I hope not. I was anxiously waiting to hear something on Thursday morning while they were releasing opinions at 10 ET. More opinions will be released, most likely, on Monday at either 9 ET or 10 ET so be on the look out. If you guys are anxious as I am, you can check it out on scotusblog.com and receive live updates while they're releasing opinions.

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Percival Jenkins
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Re: Blacks and Law School: By The Numbers

Postby Percival Jenkins » Mon Jul 01, 2013 12:11 pm

I decided to run an update for those that are applying for this upcoming cycle. The number of blacks attending T14s has reduced drastically, the numbers below represent the class that entered in Fall 2012.

Yale 16
Harvard 45
Stanford 12
Columbia 23
Chicago 11
NYU 24
Penn 19
UVA 19
Michigan 10
Berkeley 10
Duke 16
Northwestern 11
Cornell 15
Georgetown 44
275

The number of black test takers drastically reduced as well, the data is for LSAT administration that ran through 2011 (JUN) -2012 (FEB). I broke down the total number of test takers as a whole and data for males and females as well. Keep in mind the SDs are unique to each data set so the numbers add up weird. But the data still pretty much tells the same story as the OP.

MALE
4217 test takers

2 above SD (161): 71
2.5 above SD (165): 21
3 above SD (170): 4

FEMALE
7236 test takers
2 above SD(158): 123
2.5 above SD (162): 36
3 above SD (167): 7

TOTAL
11453 test takers

2 above SD (159): 194
2.5 above SD(164): 57
3 above SD(167): 11

Keep in mind that these are very rough numbers and GPA and other factors must be taken into account when we walk about admissions. Also look out for the updated admissions data that will start trickling out in August and September for the class that will be entering this fall. Make sure you are registering for resources like lawschoolnumbers.com as well to add to the information we already have. Good luck in the upcoming cycle!

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Nova
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Re: Blacks and Law School: By The Numbers

Postby Nova » Mon Jul 01, 2013 1:28 pm

Excellent work.

TYFT

Chill_Out
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Re: Blacks and Law School: By The Numbers

Postby Chill_Out » Mon Jul 01, 2013 5:22 pm

nick1 wrote:
The number of black test takers drastically reduced as well, the data is for LSAT administration that ran through 2011 (JUN) -2012 (FEB). I broke down the total number of test takers as a whole and data for males and females as well. Keep in mind the SDs are unique to each data set so the numbers add up weird. But the data still pretty much tells the same story as the OP.

MALE
4217 test takers

2 above SD (161): 71
2.5 above SD (165): 21
3 above SD (170): 4

FEMALE
7236 test takers
2 above SD(158): 123
2.5 above SD (162): 36
3 above SD (167): 7

TOTAL
11453 test takers

2 above SD (159): 194
2.5 above SD(164): 57
3 above SD(167): 11

Keep in mind that these are very rough numbers and GPA and other factors must be taken into account when we walk about admissions. Also look out for the updated admissions data that will start trickling out in August and September for the class that will be entering this fall. Make sure you are registering for resources like lawschoolnumbers.com as well to add to the information we already have. Good luck in the upcoming cycle!


Long time lurker. This is a solid analysis but I'm not convinced that is reasonable to assume that the test scores are normally distributed. Could someone give me the reasoning behind making that assumption?

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Nova
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Re: Blacks and Law School: By The Numbers

Postby Nova » Mon Jul 01, 2013 5:28 pm

Chill_Out wrote:Long time lurker. This is a solid analysis but I'm not convinced that is reasonable to assume that the test scores are normally distributed. Could someone give me the reasoning behind making that assumption?

Its the best estament we can make based on the data available

ETA: typical distribution: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_VY4V1K3ingg/S ... +Curve.png

Athlone McGinnis
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Re: Blacks and Law School: By The Numbers

Postby Athlone McGinnis » Wed Jul 03, 2013 8:31 pm

Great job Nick, thanks for your analysis.

Chill_Out wrote:

Long time lurker. This is a solid analysis but I'm not convinced that is reasonable to assume that the test scores are normally distributed. Could someone give me the reasoning behind making that assumption?


We do know for a fact that LSAT scores are normally distributed. This principle is well understood.

http://www.stat.ucla.edu/~vlew/stat10/l ... 041005.pdf

We've applied the principles of the broader group to a large sub-group that we've been given no reason to believe deviates substantially from that norm.

The numbers line up anecdotally as well. Read through this forum or browse LSN and you'll find many stories of URMs with scores as low as 159 cracking the T-14 (sub-160's regularly doing so at schools like Cornell), and 161-163 scores occasionally breaking into Harvard or Columbia. These are common occurrences that are repeated annually. It has been widely known for some time that URM boosts were strong enough to give AA test-takers with scores as low as 160 a very strong shot (some have gone as far as to say a lock depending on GPA) at many T-14 schools. This is substantiated every year by cycles showing many AAs with such scores reliably gaining T-14 admissions.

The statistical analyses we've done so far line up well with the phenomena above and explain them nicely. When you examine the AA test-taking population and apply the principles of normal distribution as we've done, the results make it easy to see why for so long it has been so typical for a URM 160 to do so well in the T-14 and for even a high-150 scorer to stand a reasonable chance of admission: demand for URMs with decent scores vastly exceeds supply.

If this were not the case and the supply of higher-scoring URMs was in fact much larger than we have predicted, then we simply wouldn't be seeing so many of the phenomena I described above. Test takers in the 158-160 range would have no chance at the T-14 in that scenario. The fact that they do in actuality has to lead us to suspect that there is a supply issue and such scorers are not terribly common. This conclusion is drawn handily by the statistical analyses we've made here.

None of this is the gospel truth (we've just made educated guesses), but what we do have here is what I would consider a very good estimate for the state of AA law school admissions. Take it with a grain of salt, but that's my opinion.

Athlone McGinnis
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Re: Blacks and Law School: By The Numbers

Postby Athlone McGinnis » Wed Jul 10, 2013 3:28 pm

I also want to make one more quick note about Nick's numbers here:

nick1 wrote:I decided to run an update for those that are applying for this upcoming cycle. The number of blacks attending T14s has reduced drastically, the numbers below represent the class that entered in Fall 2012.

Yale 16
Harvard 45
Stanford 12
Columbia 23
Chicago 11
NYU 24
Penn 19
UVA 19
Michigan 10
Berkeley 10
Duke 16
Northwestern 11
Cornell 15
Georgetown 44
275



This number above (275) considers only those who are attending T-14s. It is likely that the number of AA test takers who were admitted to T-14s is probably somewhat higher. I'm not sure precisely what estimate would be most valid (perhaps someone else could chime in), but I'm willing to be that there were 25 or more AA's who chose good T-20's (Texas, UCLA, etc) over some lower T-14s for a variety of reasons. Combine that with the numbers below from the rest of Nick's post:

TOTAL
11453 test takers

2 above SD (159): 194
2.5 above SD(164): 57
3 above SD(167): 11


If T-14 schools were actually offering 300+ admissions and there were less than 200 AA's with 159s or better (fewer still who can manage that score and pair it with a strong GPA)...well, you do the math. There are probably more AA sub-160s with a shot at the T-14 than most may think.
Last edited by Athlone McGinnis on Wed Jul 10, 2013 5:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.

californiauser
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Re: Blacks and Law School: By The Numbers

Postby californiauser » Wed Jul 10, 2013 4:41 pm

Can we expect high scoring AAs to decline this upcoming cycle?

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John_rizzy_rawls
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Re: Blacks and Law School: By The Numbers

Postby John_rizzy_rawls » Wed Jul 10, 2013 4:44 pm

californiauser wrote:Can we expect high scoring AAs to decline this upcoming cycle?


Why would we expect or want this to happen?

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Typhoon24
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Re: Blacks and Law School: By The Numbers

Postby Typhoon24 » Wed Jul 10, 2013 4:55 pm

John_rizzy_rawls wrote:
californiauser wrote:Can we expect high scoring AAs to decline this upcoming cycle?


Why would we expect or want this to happen?


From a practical point of view, the AAs with good numbers will have less competition to worry about.

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John_rizzy_rawls
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Re: Blacks and Law School: By The Numbers

Postby John_rizzy_rawls » Wed Jul 10, 2013 5:00 pm

Typhoon24 wrote:
John_rizzy_rawls wrote:
californiauser wrote:Can we expect high scoring AAs to decline this upcoming cycle?


Why would we expect or want this to happen?


From a practical point of view, the AAs with good numbers will have less competition to worry about.


That's dumb. More competition and higher aggregate AA scores means we're all doing a little better and bridging the black- white standardized test score gap.

Get as high a GPA/LSAT as you can and go from there. Don't be myopic.

californiauser
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Re: Blacks and Law School: By The Numbers

Postby californiauser » Wed Jul 10, 2013 5:27 pm

John_rizzy_rawls wrote:
californiauser wrote:Can we expect high scoring AAs to decline this upcoming cycle?


Why would we expect or want this to happen?


Why are you quoting me and asking questions completely unrelated to my post?

Decline in test takers = decline in high scoring AAs. It isn't about me "wanting" anything.

Athlone McGinnis
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Re: Blacks and Law School: By The Numbers

Postby Athlone McGinnis » Wed Jul 10, 2013 5:40 pm

John_rizzy_rawls wrote:

That's dumb. More competition and higher aggregate AA scores means we're all doing a little better and bridging the black- white standardized test score gap.


That would be good for the group as a whole but bad for many individuals who would obviously be able to get more with less in a less competitive scenario. A per-capita decline in the number of AAs on the higher end of the scale doesn't do much for the standing of the group, but it does do a lot for the few AAs per-capita with decent numbers who are left standing.

I wouldn't call the desire for the less competitive scenario "dumb". Selfish, perhaps, but not dumb.

Is it moral to desire the subversion of the group's well being in favor of improved odds for certain individuals? That's another discussion, I guess.

Anyway, there is a documented trend showing a per-capita decrease in the number of high-scoring applicants to law schools in recent years.

http://lsatblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/ad ... asier.html

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IbfKbFT2XCU/T ... ramble.png

There is some evidence that this trend has touched AAs, if only slightly. The most recent LSAT technical report shows that mean scores for AAs have actually dipped a little in recent years.

http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/resea ... -12-03.pdf
(go to pages 26-32)

AA Female Means:
-08/09: 141.87
-09/10: 141.50
-10/11:141.39
-11/12: 141.43

AA Male Means:
-08/09: 142.90
-09/10: 142.99
-10/11: 142.66
-11/12: 142.54

Correlation is clearly not causation. However, the trend displayed above would fit in with a scenario in which the number of high scoring AAs (like the number of high scoring LSAT test-takers in general) has declined somewhat.
Last edited by Athlone McGinnis on Wed Jul 10, 2013 5:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.




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