URM School Statistics

(BLS, URM status, non-traditional, GLBT)
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spacepenguin
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URM School Statistics

Postby spacepenguin » Tue Dec 28, 2010 7:16 pm

Be merciful.

Since it's the holidays and many of us are eagerly anticipating decisions, I decided to minimize my anxiety by reminding myself that as a URM, there's always some hope...sweet, sweet, hope.

Such hope motivated me to create a probability logistic model (similar to lawschoolpredictors calculator) based solely on the numbers provided by URMs through http://www.lawschoolnumbers.com.

While I am aware of law school predictor's calculator and the URM option, I like the idea of having a number to look at rather than an arbitrary label. That is to say, I have a 70% chance of being admitted rather than a "Strongly Consider." More so, given the state of the economy and the increased competition to get into law school, I only took data from the last 2 years. While the sample size is reduced significantly, the data IMHO is much more representative. Also, I'm pretty bored.

Ultimately, it would be awesome if I could have the top 50 schools, but typing in thousands of numbers isn't nearly as fun as it sounds. So as of now, to appease my insatiable hunger for acceptance at Michigan--here's what I found.

of those accepted:

Michigan
LSAT percentiles (25,50,75): 164-166-170
GPA percentiles (25,50,75): 3.46-3.68-3.83


If I were to use the following numbers (165, 3.85), the model indicates a 67% chance of being admitted. This numbers drops significantly if I only use last years data to 60%.

Ok, so I've said a whole bunch of nothing that might only appeal to the crazies on this board, but my aim is to get all top15 schools modeled in the next 2 weeks. It would be pretty cool if we could get an ongoing discussion where we continuously add more schools and everyone could have another source to refer to when applying to schools.

I wouldn't mind doing the leg work for any school you guys would like to have info on, but I want to make sure there's at least some interest. Also, for those who want to know 'what their chances' are for a particular school, you can pm your numbers and I'll get back to you, or for Michigan's case, you can plug in your numbers in the following equation:

stuff = -42.6686 + 0.21141*LSAT + 2.20757*GPA

chances = exp(stuff)/(1 + exp(stuff))

This is a work in progress and I'm open to suggestions (adding scholarship info, when did those people apply, waitlist probabilities, etc)...or you can be relentless and mock me for my obvious lack of hobbies.
Last edited by spacepenguin on Wed Dec 29, 2010 10:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Fresh
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Re: URM School Statistics

Postby Fresh » Wed Dec 29, 2010 1:53 am

These are some hardcore stats my man! Thanks for this info, it's pretty interesting.

spacepenguin wrote:Be merciful.

Since it's the holidays and many of us are eagerly anticipating decisions, I decided to minimize my anxiety by reminding myself that as a URM, there's always some hope...sweet, sweet, hope.

Such hope motivated me to create a probability logistic model (similar to lawschoolpredictors calculator) based solely on the numbers provided by URMs through http://www.lawschoolnumbers.com.

While I am aware of law school predictor's calculator and the URM option, I like the idea of having a number to look at rather than an arbitrary label. That is to say, I have a 70% chance of being admitted rather than a "Strongly Consider." More so, given the state of the economy and the increased competition to get into law school, I only took data from the last 2 years. While the sample size is reduced significantly, the data IMHO is much more representative. Also, I'm pretty bored.

Ultimately, it would be awesome if I could have the top 50 schools, but typing in thousands of numbers isn't nearly as fun as it sounds. So as of now, to appease my insatiable hunger for acceptance at Michigan--here's what I found.

of those accepted:

LSAT percentiles (25,50,75): 164-166-170
GPA percentiles (25,50,75): 3.46-3.68-3.83


If I were to use the following numbers (165, 3.85), the model indicates a 67% chance of being admitted. This numbers drops significantly if I only use last years data to 60%.

Ok, so I've said a whole bunch of nothing that might only appeal to the crazies on this board, but my aim is to get all top15 schools modeled in the next 2 weeks. It would be pretty cool if we could get an ongoing discussion where we continuously add more schools and everyone could have another source to refer to when applying to schools.

I wouldn't mind doing the leg work for any school you guys would like to have info on, but I want to make sure there's at least some interest. Also, for those who want to know 'what their chances' are for a particular school, you can pm your numbers and I'll get back to you, or for Michigan's case, you can plug in your numbers in the following equation:

stuff = -42.6686 + 0.21141*LSAT + 2.20757*GPA

chances = exp(stuff)/(1 + exp(stuff))

This is a work in progress and I'm open to suggestions (adding scholarship info, when did those people apply, waitlist probabilities, etc)...or you can be relentless and mock me for my obvious lack of hobbies.

rundoxierun
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Re: URM School Statistics

Postby rundoxierun » Wed Dec 29, 2010 2:02 am

Fresh wrote:These are some hardcore stats my man! Thanks for this info, it's pretty interesting.


You can do something similar this in excel for other schools too if you want. You put in the data/variables and the computer gives u an equation. Be careful with this though.. I really, really dont think LSN urms are even close to a representative sample.

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spacepenguin
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Re: URM School Statistics

Postby spacepenguin » Wed Dec 29, 2010 3:10 am

tkgrrett wrote:
Fresh wrote:These are some hardcore stats my man! Thanks for this info, it's pretty interesting.


You can do something similar this in excel for other schools too if you want. You put in the data/variables and the computer gives u an equation. Be careful with this though.. I really, really dont think LSN urms are even close to a representative sample.


I'm pretty sure Excel uses a linear model as opposed to a logistic one, so the predictions would be pretty off.

LSN is all I have to work with and I've gone ahead and eliminated obvious outliers (people who for whatever reason are compelled to be liars), but am also aware that people are more inclined to report an acceptance than a denial.

Any particular schools anyone is interested in?

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chaosnoodlesoup
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Re: URM School Statistics

Postby chaosnoodlesoup » Wed Dec 29, 2010 3:29 am

If you're not busy, could you do Chicago?

rundoxierun
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Re: URM School Statistics

Postby rundoxierun » Wed Dec 29, 2010 11:56 am

spacepenguin wrote:
I'm pretty sure Excel uses a linear model as opposed to a logistic one, so the predictions would be pretty off.

LSN is all I have to work with and I've gone ahead and eliminated obvious outliers (people who for whatever reason are compelled to be liars), but am also aware that people are more inclined to report an acceptance than a denial.

Any particular schools anyone is interested in?


Ok, I just assumed you were doing a linear model. Regardless, LSN just doesnt have the number of URMs necessary for any kind of modeling(logistic or linear) to be accurate at the top schools. Plus, real life experience with URM applicants tell me that LSN is not very representative for URMs, especially african americans. There is a far higher concentration of superstar urm applicants on LSN than in real life.

There just isnt enough data out there for URMs. It really sucks.

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Fresh
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Re: URM School Statistics

Postby Fresh » Wed Dec 29, 2010 12:01 pm

tkgrrett wrote:
There just isnt enough data out there for URMs. It really sucks.


agreed

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spacepenguin
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Re: URM School Statistics

Postby spacepenguin » Wed Dec 29, 2010 1:52 pm

chaosnoodlesoup wrote:If you're not busy, could you do Chicago?


Gladly.

Chicago
(plug in your numbers into the following equations)

stuff = -47.97154 + 0.17766*LSAT + 5.36678*GPA

chance of being admitted = exp(stuff)/(1 + exp(stuff))

(as an example, using LSAT=165 and GPA=3.85, there would be an 88% chance of being admitted, which seems too high)

LSAT percentiles (25,50,75) = (164, 166, 169)
GPA percentiles (25,50,75) = (3.6, 3.68, 3.82)

the minimum LSAT was a 157 and the minimum GPA was a 3.300



So like another poster mentioned, there might not be enough URM data available to do a proper sampling; and the data that is available is usually the upper echelon of URMs (but again, this is just speculation)

What I have noticed however, is that there seems to be a URM boost in terms of LSAT, but not in terms of GPA.
Last edited by spacepenguin on Wed Dec 29, 2010 10:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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2011L1
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Re: URM School Statistics

Postby 2011L1 » Wed Dec 29, 2010 1:56 pm

spacepenguin wrote:
chaosnoodlesoup wrote:If you're not busy, could you do Chicago?


Gladly.

Chicago:
(plug in your numbers into the following equations)

stuff = -47.97154 + 0.17766*LSAT + 5.36678*GPA

chance of being admitted = exp(stuff)/(1 + exp(stuff))

(as an example, using LSAT=165 and GPA=3.85, there would be an 88% chance of being admitted, which seems too high)

LSAT percentiles (25,50,75) = (164, 166, 169)
GPA percentiles (25,50,75) = (3.6, 3.68, 3.82)

the minimum LSAT was a 157 and the minimum GPA was a 3.300



So like another poster mentioned, there might not be enough URM data available to do a proper sampling; and the data that is available is usually the upper echelon of URMs (but again, this is just speculation)

What I have noticed however, is that there seems to be a URM boost in terms of LSAT, but not in terms of GPA.


I agree with you big time on the last statement as far as lsat vs gpa. why is that?

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2011L1
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Re: URM School Statistics

Postby 2011L1 » Wed Dec 29, 2010 1:57 pm

can you do Fordham, NYU, and Columbia?

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spacepenguin
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Re: URM School Statistics

Postby spacepenguin » Wed Dec 29, 2010 1:59 pm

tkgrrett wrote:
spacepenguin wrote:
I'm pretty sure Excel uses a linear model as opposed to a logistic one, so the predictions would be pretty off.

LSN is all I have to work with and I've gone ahead and eliminated obvious outliers (people who for whatever reason are compelled to be liars), but am also aware that people are more inclined to report an acceptance than a denial.

Any particular schools anyone is interested in?


Ok, I just assumed you were doing a linear model. Regardless, LSN just doesnt have the number of URMs necessary for any kind of modeling(logistic or linear) to be accurate at the top schools. Plus, real life experience with URM applicants tell me that LSN is not very representative for URMs, especially african americans. There is a far higher concentration of superstar urm applicants on LSN than in real life.

There just isnt enough data out there for URMs. It really sucks.



Not questioning you, but could you elaborate on your experience with URM applicants? I only ask, because if what you say is true, the model I have (which seems to be TOO generous to URMs) would actually become even more generous.

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spacepenguin
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Re: URM School Statistics

Postby spacepenguin » Wed Dec 29, 2010 2:42 pm

2011L1 wrote:can you do Fordham, NYU, and Columbia?


Here's NYU, I'll get to the other two later.

NYU

stuff = -45.0525 + 0.22937*LSAT + 2.0826*GPA
chance of being admitted = exp(stuff)/(1+exp(stuff))

* for those who aren't familiar with the notation, exp is the e function

LSAT percentiles (25,50,75) = 164.5, 166, 169.5
GPA percentiles (25,50, 75) = 3.5, 3.68, 3.815

LSAT min = 148
GPA min = 2.8

Something to note, the GPA statistics for NYU were barely significant in predicting the odds of acceptance. In other words, there was a whole lot of deviance in GPAs where lower GPAs were accepted over higher GPAs, given similar LSAT scores.
Last edited by spacepenguin on Wed Dec 29, 2010 10:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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2011L1
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Re: URM School Statistics

Postby 2011L1 » Wed Dec 29, 2010 3:34 pm

spacepenguin wrote:
2011L1 wrote:can you do Fordham, NYU, and Columbia?


Here's NYU, I'll get to the other two later.

NYU:

stuff = -45.0525 + 0.22937*LSAT + 2.0826*GPA
chance of being admitted = exp(stuff)/(1+exp(stuff))

* for those who aren't familiar with the notation, exp is the e function

LSAT percentiles (25,50,75) = 164.5, 166, 169.5
GPA percentiles (25,50, 75) = 3.5, 3.68, 3.815

LSAT min = 148
GPA min = 2.8

Something to note, the GPA statistics for NYU were barely significant in predicting the odds of acceptance. In other words, there was a whole lot of deviance in GPAs where lower GPAs were accepted over higher GPAs, given similar LSAT scores.


THANK YOU! there is life on the moon!

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Re: URM School Statistics

Postby spacepenguin » Wed Dec 29, 2010 5:33 pm

Columbia

stuff = -45.41922 + 0.18493*LSAT + 4.12977*GPA

probability of being admitted = exp(stuff)/(1 + exp(stuff))

LSAT percentiles (25,50, 75) = 164, 167, 169.5
GPA percentiles (25, 50, 75) = 3.6, 3.68, 3.8

LSAT min = 155
GPA min = 3.19

I'm starting to think I should have applied to these schools.
Last edited by spacepenguin on Wed Dec 29, 2010 10:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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BackToTheOldHouse
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Re: URM School Statistics

Postby BackToTheOldHouse » Wed Dec 29, 2010 5:54 pm

Cornell? NU?

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2011L1
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Re: URM School Statistics

Postby 2011L1 » Wed Dec 29, 2010 6:11 pm

spacepenguin wrote:Columbia:

stuff = -45.41922 + 0.18493*LSAT + 4.12977*GPA

probability of being admitted = exp(stuff)/(1 + exp(stuff))

LSAT percentiles (25,50, 75) = 164, 167, 169.5
GPA percentiles (25, 50, 75) = 3.6, 3.68, 3.8

LSAT min = 155
GPA min = 3.19

I'm starting to think I should have applied to these schools.


if theres any truth to these stats you might be able to get paid for this :lol:

rundoxierun
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Re: URM School Statistics

Postby rundoxierun » Wed Dec 29, 2010 7:01 pm

spacepenguin wrote:
Not questioning you, but could you elaborate on your experience with URM applicants? I only ask, because if what you say is true, the model I have (which seems to be TOO generous to URMs) would actually become even more generous.


I was a member of one of the LSAC summer diversity "camps" that hosts top URM students at different law schools and gets them ready for the application process and law school. This has allowed me access to info. on a bunch of people of minority races(not just URMs, ORMs participated as well) and their cycles. One thing to note is that it varies pretty widely from race to race. Even top 14 schools dip into the upper 150s to get african-american students. Of the kids I know, few(only 1 that I know of) of them had numbers TLS would call "good" but a lot of them had crazy good softs. The majority of them got into top 50 schools and quite a few in the elite(t14+UCLA/Texas/Vandy). Numbers wise, it wouldnt surprise me at all if an accurate model was more generous(numbers wise) than what you have indicates. Rough background combined with softs that indicate you working towards helping kids from that background is really a game changer.

To show what I mean by crazy good softs here are a couple that I remember:
-Founded a charter school for impoverished kids in the rural south and currently sits on their board while still in undergrad.
-First generation immigrant who worked with immigrants rights groups in a leadership role at the state and federal level while still in undergrad.
-Multiple kids with prestigious fellowships.

It seemed like everyone else there was really passionate and involved in rights and poverty issues. I kind of felt like a loser being there with a really corporate type resume.

Brownadam26
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Re: URM School Statistics

Postby Brownadam26 » Wed Dec 29, 2010 7:18 pm

lol yeah my resume screams corporate. I think there is "sweet sweet hope" for us as URMs. But, correct me if I'm wrong, but Michigan really doesn't care about minority status in the admissions process, considering their termination of afirmative action.
Also, I think us URMs are in good shape regardless of the stats of these sites because there are thousands of others like us that don't use these websites because they are afraid the schools they were shockingly accepted into are checking the stats and will reverse their decisions if they see they got cocky by posting their stats lol jkjkjk

jd20132013
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Re: URM School Statistics

Postby jd20132013 » Wed Dec 29, 2010 7:52 pm

Michigan does ask for a diversity statement which I'm sure is taken into account...

speaking of which, could you do Michigan and Penn?

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spacepenguin
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Re: URM School Statistics

Postby spacepenguin » Wed Dec 29, 2010 8:48 pm

jd20132013 wrote:Michigan does ask for a diversity statement which I'm sure is taken into account...

speaking of which, could you do Michigan and Penn?



Michigan is my first post. I'll do Penn in a bit.

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spacepenguin
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Re: URM School Statistics

Postby spacepenguin » Wed Dec 29, 2010 8:54 pm

tkgrrett wrote:
I was a member of one of the LSAC summer diversity "camps" that hosts top URM students at different law schools and gets them ready for the application process and law school. This has allowed me access to info. on a bunch of people of minority races(not just URMs, ORMs participated as well) and their cycles. One thing to note is that it varies pretty widely from race to race. Even top 14 schools dip into the upper 150s to get african-american students. Of the kids I know, few(only 1 that I know of) of them had numbers TLS would call "good" but a lot of them had crazy good softs. The majority of them got into top 50 schools and quite a few in the elite(t14+UCLA/Texas/Vandy). Numbers wise, it wouldnt surprise me at all if an accurate model was more generous(numbers wise) than what you have indicates. Rough background combined with softs that indicate you working towards helping kids from that background is really a game changer.

To show what I mean by crazy good softs here are a couple that I remember:
-Founded a charter school for impoverished kids in the rural south and currently sits on their board while still in undergrad.
-First generation immigrant who worked with immigrants rights groups in a leadership role at the state and federal level while still in undergrad.
-Multiple kids with prestigious fellowships.

It seemed like everyone else there was really passionate and involved in rights and poverty issues. I kind of felt like a loser being there with a really corporate type resume.



Man, I feel like such a bum now...

Honestly though, I really do believe softs like those should play a crucial part in decisions...maybe more so than LSAT and GPA scores; even if it's to my detriment.

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spacepenguin
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Re: URM School Statistics

Postby spacepenguin » Wed Dec 29, 2010 10:23 pm

UPenn

stuff = -31.82265 + 0.11664*LSAT + 3.29601*GPA
probability = exp(stuff)/(1+exp(stuff))


LSAT percentiles (25, 50, 75) = 160.5, 164.5, 170.8
GPA percentiles (25, 50, 75) = 3.54, 3.72, 3.9

LSAT min = 155
GPA min = 2.94

*There were a whole bunch of rejections vs acceptances, at least relative to the other schools I've done
** This is the weakest model by far, mainly due to the small amount of acceptances vs rejections.

Frathard
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Re: URM School Statistics

Postby Frathard » Wed Dec 29, 2010 11:16 pm

Someone do Harvard please.

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tooswolle
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Re: URM School Statistics

Postby tooswolle » Wed Dec 29, 2010 11:31 pm

How about BU ?

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spacepenguin
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Re: URM School Statistics

Postby spacepenguin » Thu Dec 30, 2010 2:44 pm

Cornell

stuff = -29.8744 + 0.13653*LSAT + 2.5727*GPA
probability = exp(stuff)/(1+exp(stuff))

LSAT percentiles (25,50, 75) = 162.8, 165, 168.2
GPA percentiles (25,50, 75) = 3.408, 3.640, 3.792

*Cornell tends to waitlist people rather than reject them, so the data available is heavily skewed towards acceptances
** traditional splitters will not benefit from this model as a high LSAT score will significantly alter the probability outcomes
*** the same could be said about reverse splitters, although it seems that low lsat high gpas tend to be admitted if an URM.




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