Stats on URM 175+ LSAT

(BLS, URM status, non-traditional, GLBT)
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CryingMonkey
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Stats on URM 175+ LSAT

Postby CryingMonkey » Tue May 18, 2010 9:58 am

Just out of curiousity, I'm trying to figure out what the stats are for URMs with LSATs over 175 - just in terms of "approximately x per cycle." I haven't been able to find much, except for a report from 2004 that said that 29 Af-Am testers scored over 170 that year. Has anyone seen anything more recent than that?

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voice of reason
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Re: Stats on URM 175+ LSAT

Postby voice of reason » Sat May 29, 2010 11:33 pm

About 110,000 Americans take the test every year, and about a quarter of them are URM. 175 is a percentile score of 99.5, so all else being equal an estimate would be 110,000 * .25 * (1-.995) = 138. However, URMs have average LSAT scores several points lower than non-URMs, which would move them down in the distribution and result in fewer above 175. So 138 is probably an upper bound, and I'd hazard a guess that the true number is in the ballpark of 100.

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romothesavior
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Re: Stats on URM 175+ LSAT

Postby romothesavior » Sat May 29, 2010 11:40 pm

voice of reason wrote:About 110,000 Americans take the test every year, and about a quarter of them are URM. 175 is a percentile score of 99.5, so all else being equal an estimate would be 110,000 * .25 * (1-.995) = 138. However, URMs have average LSAT scores several points lower than non-URMs, which would move them down in the distribution and result in fewer above 175. So 138 is probably an upper bound, and I'd hazard a guess that the true number is in the ballpark of 100.


This is probably roughly correct. I recall something posted on TLS that talked about how few URMs with 170+ there are, but I can't find it. Basically, if you are a URM and you get a a 170+ with a solid GPA, expect the T10 to fight over you. A 175+, and you can enjoy Cambridge or New Haven.

(Yes I know... RANCID anti-Stanford trolling :D )

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rayiner
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Re: Stats on URM 175+ LSAT

Postby rayiner » Sat May 29, 2010 11:58 pm

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Last edited by rayiner on Mon Jul 26, 2010 10:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Bildungsroman
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Re: Stats on URM 175+ LSAT

Postby Bildungsroman » Sun May 30, 2010 1:29 pm

http://www.jbhe.com/news_views/51_gradu ... _test.html

In 2004, 29 black people received a score higher than 170. Blacks make up the largest racial group taking the LSAT (after whites). I would say that it seems unlikely 100 URMs score over 175 in a given year.

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voice of reason
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Re: Stats on URM 175+ LSAT

Postby voice of reason » Sun May 30, 2010 2:04 pm

rayiner wrote:
voice of reason wrote:About 110,000 Americans take the test every year, and about a quarter of them are URM. 175 is a percentile score of 99.5, so all else being equal an estimate would be 110,000 * .25 * (1-.995) = 138. However, URMs have average LSAT scores several points lower than non-URMs, which would move them down in the distribution and result in fewer above 175. So 138 is probably an upper bound, and I'd hazard a guess that the true number is in the ballpark of 100.


--LinkRemoved-- (Table 4)

The number of test takers in 2007 was ~140,000, of which ~12,000 were black.

The mean LSAT for blacks is around 142, with an SD of 8.5. Plugging that into a normal distribution that makes 175 99.994 percentile for blacks, which means ~1 person out of 12,000. Of course at almost 4 SDs above the mean that number is small and hard to predict, so it could be between 0 and several.

You can do the math for the other URM races.


140K is the number of tests taken, not people taking the tests. That is, it double-counts the people who re-took. The number of Americans taking the test every year is around 110,000. In 2007 it was 107,553 (p 6 of the report you cited).

Blacks have a lower average than other URMs and constitute less than half of all URMs (depending how you want to define URM), so focusing on blacks could lead to a lower estimate. I agree the number of URMs scoring over 175 may be less than 100.

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Bildungsroman
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Re: Stats on URM 175+ LSAT

Postby Bildungsroman » Sun May 30, 2010 7:27 pm

voice of reason wrote:
rayiner wrote:
voice of reason wrote:About 110,000 Americans take the test every year, and about a quarter of them are URM. 175 is a percentile score of 99.5, so all else being equal an estimate would be 110,000 * .25 * (1-.995) = 138. However, URMs have average LSAT scores several points lower than non-URMs, which would move them down in the distribution and result in fewer above 175. So 138 is probably an upper bound, and I'd hazard a guess that the true number is in the ballpark of 100.


--LinkRemoved-- (Table 4)

The number of test takers in 2007 was ~140,000, of which ~12,000 were black.

The mean LSAT for blacks is around 142, with an SD of 8.5. Plugging that into a normal distribution that makes 175 99.994 percentile for blacks, which means ~1 person out of 12,000. Of course at almost 4 SDs above the mean that number is small and hard to predict, so it could be between 0 and several.

You can do the math for the other URM races.


140K is the number of tests taken, not people taking the tests. That is, it double-counts the people who re-took. The number of Americans taking the test every year is around 110,000. In 2007 it was 107,553 (p 6 of the report you cited).

Blacks have a lower average than other URMs and constitute less than half of all URMs (depending how you want to define URM), so focusing on blacks could lead to a lower estimate. I agree the number of URMs scoring over 175 may be less than 100.


Actually, blacks account for about half of all URMs. In 2007-2008, there were 12,152 African-Americans taking the LSAT. Native Americans, Hispanics, Puerto Ricans, and Mexicans combined numbered 11,218 (and that includes all hispanics, even the ones who don't qualify as underrepresented). Also, Puerto Ricans have a lower average test score than African-Americans by about 4 points.

--LinkRemoved--


The data presented in this LSAC report suggest that the number of URMs scoring 175+ is substantially lower than 100.




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