IMO I feel like UCB and UCLA have such prestige and reputation that they won't be too negatively effected by rising tuition, it just seems like even w/ the tuition hike, incoming law students will still be clawing each others eyes out to get in there or any other T20. Especially w/ more people applying for law school than ever before.
I think the schools most hurt are likely Davis and Hastings. While there are far fewer schools as good as or better than UCB and UCLA, Davis and Hastings hover around 40 - CA kids who can get in there are likely to get into many schools slightly better or worse than those schools (ranking-wise) while paying much much less. I know when I applied last cycle, when I got into UCD and UCH, I also got into W&M for example, even back then it was probably a better deal for me to go to W&M even as a CA resident, and w/ these tuition hikes how many more qualified students will choose the more affordable options out of state.
I do wonder how UCI will be effected though... They'll still probably be giving out big scholly's for awhile and that place has all kinds of momentum that I think will keep highly qualified students flocking there for at least a few more years until they get ABA approved and debut on US News. I think most people would predict either way that that their 2nd class will not be as highly qualified as their extremely high caliber Inaugural class of full-scholarship recipients.
The problem is there aren't any choices in that range you're referring to that will place well in CA, so I guess if you don't care if you end up back working in CA at or around graduation, than I guess going to W&M or other cheaper out of state schools is feasible.
If you do want to work in CA after graduation, what are your options outside of the T14+UCLA/USC? You've got Davis and Hastings, following them you can pick from a slew of super regional T2's, the latter having a tuition, as of now, that is slightly higher and soon to be about equal to Davis and Hastings. Sure you may get some scholly money from some of these T2's, assuming you've got the numbers to get into the UC's, but they're usually contingent upon the student falling within the top 1/3(or whatever it may be) of his/her class. That sounds great, but none of us have even the slightest clue as to how we will fare during 1L. Therefore, it's sort of a gamble, take the lower tuition at the CA T2(assuming a partial scholly is offered) and hope you finish in the top 1/3 or go with the UC that will always have better placement in CA then those T2's. If you don't get to keep that T2 scholarship, you will pay full price and have fewer, in numbers and prestige, employment opportunities after and during law school.
I too am considering going to an out of state public law school in an attempt to save money, but I know that this will make securing employment in CA at graduation very difficult, so I'm only applying to schools in a region/city I can see myself working in and hope I can make my way back to CA after a few years. Also, depending on what you want to do, if you're interested in the public sector, IBR really makes the tuition issue a little less scary.