Is Sticker Debt for a T-10 worth it in 2016? Forum

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Is t-10 worth sticker

Yes
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37%
No
106
63%
 
Total votes: 169

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rpupkin

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Re: Is Sticker Debt for a T-10 worth it in 2016?

Post by rpupkin » Sun Mar 20, 2016 7:28 pm

deepseapartners wrote:What's the general consensus on the cutoff for what school is worth sticker? I've seen CCN bandied around before, but there have been more posts recently about the futility of even good employment outcomes, so maybe there's a new consensus?
I'd say that the consensus—or at least the prevailing TLS wisdom—is that no law school is worth sticker.

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Re: Is Sticker Debt for a T-10 worth it in 2016?

Post by abl » Sun Mar 20, 2016 7:29 pm

Tls2016 wrote:
abl wrote:
Tls2016 wrote:
abl wrote:The question is: worth it for who?

If you're asking if it can be worth it for anyone, the answer is an easy yes. If you're asking if it is worth it for at least one actual student attending a T-10 each year, the answer is almost certainly yes. If you're answering if it's worth it for the average student or for most students, that's when things get more complicated (and the answer's probably no).

There's no real reason for you to care about those scenarios, though. The only question that's really relevant here is whether it's worth it for you. And it's impossible to answer that question without knowing more about you--what are your goals, other options, value preferences, etc.
Yes there are reasons to care. Opening people's eyes to the ridiculousness of law school tuition and repaying debt is one.
I can't think of any reason to debt finance law school at sticker. But it seems that many people do it.
It's not hard to think of reasons. You're super wealthy; you're 100% committed to some sort of hard-to-land PI; you don't have other non-sticker law school options; etc. There are an infinite number of reasons to debt finance law school sticker. In fact, just looking at it from a strictly financial perspective, it's not going to be a terrible ROI for a lot of admitted students.

I'm not arguing that it's always or even usually a good call. I'm just saying it's ridiculous to say that it never can be.
Super wealthy people don't debt finance outside of something strange happening.

Paying sticker for a slim shot at a unicorn job seems insane to me. If you are special enough or talented enough for a rare job, you can probably create a different way to your goals.

If you don't have other non sticker options, then maybe just don't go? I think Don't Go should replace Retake for a good number of people.

I don't know about the ROI for most T14 grads paying sticker. I don't know how to calculate it. The big problem is that so many lawyers leave law, but there aren't any recent statistics that I could find. You can't just assume a 20 or 30 year career.
I bet that the majority of T14 grads stay in a law-related field for 20-30 years. You're right that you can't assume 20 or 30 years in biglaw. I do think you can probably assume 20 to 30 years in law, generally. And re the rest of your points, well, I think there's at the very least reasonable disagreement on these things. No, actually, I take that back: I don't actually think your points are all that reasonable. Personally, I think it'd be ridiculous to tell a classics major splitter who has always wanted to go to law school with a reasonably good idea of what they're getting into, and who gets into Columbia at sticker (and say USC at sticker), that she should simply not go (and then what?). And not only do some wealthy law students debt-finance law school, but it's probably the financially preferred decision (given the reasonably low interest rates available and the tax advantages of student debt). Finally, most legal unicorn jobs are, well, legal. You're not going to be able to "badass" your way to a JD-required job without a JD.

It's feasible to pay off sticker at a T14 (especially with all of the loan assistance programs currently available). Is it going to be painful at times? Probably. But so is becoming an accountant or consultant or whatever else mediocre alternative options are generally available to these folks. Whether or not the trade-offs of an expensive law degree are worth it are going to be completely individualized--and the sacrifice will undoubtedly be worth it for some. How is this a controversial point?!

If you really think that living on a >$100k salary with a >$200k debt load is too severe a financial burden to possibly live with, well, you've clearly had very few experiences with what life outside the middle class (or even upper middle class) in America are like--because there is a huge chunk of the U.S. who would gladly trade their current financial circumstances for that.

I get the sense that you think it's dangerous for me to acknowledge the possibility that a T14 at sticker can be worthwhile. But the alternative is to over-simplify what is an inherently individual decision in a way that is incredibly patronizing. I think it's obvious that attending a T14 at sticker can be worth it. Let's pull back from that ridiculously extreme position to talk more about something that people can actually reasonably disagree about: when is a T14 at sticker worth it.

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Re: Is Sticker Debt for a T-10 worth it in 2016?

Post by stretchedtoothin » Sun Mar 20, 2016 7:30 pm

rpupkin wrote:
deepseapartners wrote:What's the general consensus on the cutoff for what school is worth sticker? I've seen CCN bandied around before, but there have been more posts recently about the futility of even good employment outcomes, so maybe there's a new consensus?
I'd say that the consensus—or at least the prevailing TLS wisdom—is that no law school is worth sticker.

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Re: Is Sticker Debt for a T-10 worth it in 2016?

Post by stretchedtoothin » Sun Mar 20, 2016 7:34 pm

abl wrote: I bet that the majority of T14 grads stay in a law-related field for 20-30 years. You're right that you can't assume 20 or 30 years in biglaw. I do think you can probably assume 20 to 30 years in law, generally. And re the rest of your points, well, I think there's at the very least reasonable disagreement on these things. No, actually, I take that back: I don't actually think your points are all that reasonable. Personally, I think it'd be ridiculous to tell a classics major splitter who has always wanted to go to law school with a reasonably good idea of what they're getting into, and who gets into Columbia at sticker (and say USC at sticker), that she should simply not go (and then what?). And not only do some wealthy law students debt-finance law school, but it's probably the financially preferred decision (given the reasonably low interest rates available and the tax advantages of student debt). Finally, most legal unicorn jobs are, well, legal. You're not going to be able to "badass" your way to a JD-required job without a JD.

It's feasible to pay off sticker at a T14 (especially with all of the loan assistance programs currently available). Is it going to be painful at times? Probably. But so is becoming an accountant or consultant or whatever else mediocre alternative options are generally available to these folks. Whether or not the trade-offs of an expensive law degree are worth it are going to be completely individualized--and the sacrifice will undoubtedly be worth it for some. How is this a controversial point?!

If you really think that living on a >$100k salary with a >$200k debt load is too severe a financial burden to possibly live with, well, you've clearly had very few experiences with what life outside the middle class (or even upper middle class) in America are like--because there is a huge chunk of the U.S. who would gladly trade their current financial circumstances for that.

I get the sense that you think it's dangerous for me to acknowledge the possibility that a T14 at sticker can be worthwhile. But the alternative is to over-simplify what is an inherently individual decision in a way that is incredibly patronizing. I think it's obvious that attending a T14 at sticker can be worth it. Let's pull back from that ridiculously extreme position to talk more about something that people can actually reasonably disagree about: when is a T14 at sticker worth it.


The answer to your question is "retake." Unless you have a sub-3.2 GPA, there should never be a time where you're absolutely stuck paying sticker price for a T14 education.

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Re: Is Sticker Debt for a T-10 worth it in 2016?

Post by zot1 » Sun Mar 20, 2016 7:38 pm

js7981 wrote:
Tls2016 wrote:
darc wrote:Question- what about loan repayment if you're going into pubic sector? If you're not going to end up having to repay the full debt, is it worth it then? :?
My concern with that option is that you have to get and keep a job or series of qualifying jobs at least 10 years or 120 on time payments.
The other concern is Congress eliminating PSLF altogether, or at least making it partial instead of full forgiveness.
I can say worrying about Congress is a real thing. Disregarding that, despite my ridiculous amount of debt, my lifestyle is so much better so that makes the debt for me worth it. But I got a job prior to graduation and that is something I wanted but didn't necessarily know would happen.

I think that is ultimately the biggest problem with law school--you could get into a lot of debt and then end up moving in with your parents and looking for a legal job for over a year after graduation. Then that job you get might start you at 35k... which you could have possibly made before getting into law school debt.

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Re: Is Sticker Debt for a T-10 worth it in 2016?

Post by fliptrip » Sun Mar 20, 2016 7:43 pm

Tls2016 wrote: I don't know about the ROI for most T14 grads paying sticker. I don't know how to calculate it. The big problem is that so many lawyers leave law, but there aren't any recent statistics that I could find. You can't just assume a 20 or 30 year career.
It's pretty straightforward to calculate the investment decision. Essentially, you're buying a cash flow (your salaries/bonuses with a law degree) with your COA in law school + your opportunity costs - your living expenses (since you've got to live whether you're in school or not). Your net cash flow each year you work after you get your law degree is basically your salary - what your salary would have been if you didn't go to law school. You then add in a discounting factor and you see what the NPV of your investment is. If it's positive, it's a good investment. If it's negative, it's not.

That's a lot of work, so instead I use a little shorthand of taking your expected 2-year earnings in biglaw (using implied chances of biglaw, which is the BL + FC / 80%) and comparing that to COA. Using that shorthand, here's what we know:

NPV Positive:
Yale, Harvard, Stanford, Chicago, Columbia, NYU, Penn

NPV Negative:
UVA, Berkeley, Michigan

Schools like Yale, Harvard, Stanford, and NYU are difficult because it's difficult to know exactly what proportion of these schools' populations are pursuing biglaw, so one's actual biglaw chances and thus expected earnings at those schools are likely higher than is implied. I just fudged and said you had 100% biglaw success odds at YHS and I gave NYU Columbia's biglaw odds. Obviously, as that changes the whole analysis.

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Re: Is Sticker Debt for a T-10 worth it in 2016?

Post by L’Étranger » Sun Mar 20, 2016 8:26 pm

If you get a biglaw job and like your biglaw job, then yes it's worth it.

If you get a PI or Gov job, do LRAP, and like your PI or Gov job, then yes it's worth it.

If you get a non-biglaw job that pays 6 figures, and you like your non-biglaw job that pays 6 figures, then yes it's worth it.

Otherwise, no.

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Re: Is Sticker Debt for a T-10 worth it in 2016?

Post by jnwa » Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:01 pm

fliptrip wrote:
Tls2016 wrote: I don't know about the ROI for most T14 grads paying sticker. I don't know how to calculate it. The big problem is that so many lawyers leave law, but there aren't any recent statistics that I could find. You can't just assume a 20 or 30 year career.
It's pretty straightforward to calculate the investment decision. Essentially, you're buying a cash flow (your salaries/bonuses with a law degree) with your COA in law school + your opportunity costs - your living expenses (since you've got to live whether you're in school or not). Your net cash flow each year you work after you get your law degree is basically your salary - what your salary would have been if you didn't go to law school. You then add in a discounting factor and you see what the NPV of your investment is. If it's positive, it's a good investment. If it's negative, it's not.

That's a lot of work, so instead I use a little shorthand of taking your expected 2-year earnings in biglaw (using implied chances of biglaw, which is the BL + FC / 80%) and comparing that to COA. Using that shorthand, here's what we know:

NPV Positive:
Yale, Harvard, Stanford, Chicago, Columbia, NYU, Penn

NPV Negative:
UVA, Berkeley, Michigan

Schools like Yale, Harvard, Stanford, and NYU are difficult because it's difficult to know exactly what proportion of these schools' populations are pursuing biglaw, so one's actual biglaw chances and thus expected earnings at those schools are likely higher than is implied. I just fudged and said you had 100% biglaw success odds at YHS and I gave NYU Columbia's biglaw odds. Obviously, as that changes the whole analysis.
Just got back from.Michigan preview weekend to Im gunna do some Mich trolling. Career service guy said the Oci success rate was 80% for the class of 2015. Isn't that a more accurate proxy for estimated chances of biglaw. I'm sure the rates are other T14s save (maybe) Georgetown are similar thus wouldn't it make all those schools NPV positive? Obviously that data isn't available for all schools so it'd be tough to do a comparison without it. I'm just trying to say that your analysis may have actually been on the conservative side.

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Re: Is Sticker Debt for a T-10 worth it in 2016?

Post by Tls2016 » Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:11 pm

What is OCI success rate? It doesn't equal actual jobs after graduation, correct?

Also, at what debt level are none of the T14 worth it? Even if you assume two years of biglaw salary as your standard of whether ROI is positive and all your other assumptions.
Last edited by Tls2016 on Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Is Sticker Debt for a T-10 worth it in 2016?

Post by Mullens » Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:15 pm

jnwa wrote:
fliptrip wrote:
Tls2016 wrote: I don't know about the ROI for most T14 grads paying sticker. I don't know how to calculate it. The big problem is that so many lawyers leave law, but there aren't any recent statistics that I could find. You can't just assume a 20 or 30 year career.
It's pretty straightforward to calculate the investment decision. Essentially, you're buying a cash flow (your salaries/bonuses with a law degree) with your COA in law school + your opportunity costs - your living expenses (since you've got to live whether you're in school or not). Your net cash flow each year you work after you get your law degree is basically your salary - what your salary would have been if you didn't go to law school. You then add in a discounting factor and you see what the NPV of your investment is. If it's positive, it's a good investment. If it's negative, it's not.

That's a lot of work, so instead I use a little shorthand of taking your expected 2-year earnings in biglaw (using implied chances of biglaw, which is the BL + FC / 80%) and comparing that to COA. Using that shorthand, here's what we know:

NPV Positive:
Yale, Harvard, Stanford, Chicago, Columbia, NYU, Penn

NPV Negative:
UVA, Berkeley, Michigan

Schools like Yale, Harvard, Stanford, and NYU are difficult because it's difficult to know exactly what proportion of these schools' populations are pursuing biglaw, so one's actual biglaw chances and thus expected earnings at those schools are likely higher than is implied. I just fudged and said you had 100% biglaw success odds at YHS and I gave NYU Columbia's biglaw odds. Obviously, as that changes the whole analysis.
Just got back from.Michigan preview weekend to Im gunna do some Mich trolling. Career service guy said the Oci success rate was 80% for the class of 2015. Isn't that a more accurate proxy for estimated chances of biglaw. I'm sure the rates are other T14s save (maybe) Georgetown are similar thus wouldn't it make all those schools NPV positive? Obviously that data isn't available for all schools so it'd be tough to do a comparison without it. I'm just trying to say that your analysis may have actually been on the conservative side.
Did they tell you what it was for the classes of 2016 and 2017? They have those numbers so if they only mentioned 2015, you can probably assume it's lower for 2016 and 2017.

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Re: Is Sticker Debt for a T-10 worth it in 2016?

Post by jnwa » Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:19 pm

Mullens wrote:
jnwa wrote:
fliptrip wrote:
Tls2016 wrote: I don't know about the ROI for most T14 grads paying sticker. I don't know how to calculate it. The big problem is that so many lawyers leave law, but there aren't any recent statistics that I could find. You can't just assume a 20 or 30 year career.
It's pretty straightforward to calculate the investment decision. Essentially, you're buying a cash flow (your salaries/bonuses with a law degree) with your COA in law school + your opportunity costs - your living expenses (since you've got to live whether you're in school or not). Your net cash flow each year you work after you get your law degree is basically your salary - what your salary would have been if you didn't go to law school. You then add in a discounting factor and you see what the NPV of your investment is. If it's positive, it's a good investment. If it's negative, it's not.

That's a lot of work, so instead I use a little shorthand of taking your expected 2-year earnings in biglaw (using implied chances of biglaw, which is the BL + FC / 80%) and comparing that to COA. Using that shorthand, here's what we know:

NPV Positive:
Yale, Harvard, Stanford, Chicago, Columbia, NYU, Penn

NPV Negative:
UVA, Berkeley, Michigan

Schools like Yale, Harvard, Stanford, and NYU are difficult because it's difficult to know exactly what proportion of these schools' populations are pursuing biglaw, so one's actual biglaw chances and thus expected earnings at those schools are likely higher than is implied. I just fudged and said you had 100% biglaw success odds at YHS and I gave NYU Columbia's biglaw odds. Obviously, as that changes the whole analysis.
Just got back from.Michigan preview weekend to Im gunna do some Mich trolling. Career service guy said the Oci success rate was 80% for the class of 2015. Isn't that a more accurate proxy for estimated chances of biglaw. I'm sure the rates are other T14s save (maybe) Georgetown are similar thus wouldn't it make all those schools NPV positive? Obviously that data isn't available for all schools so it'd be tough to do a comparison without it. I'm just trying to say that your analysis may have actually been on the conservative side.
Did they tell you what it was for the classes of 2016 and 2017? They have those numbers so if they only mentioned 2015, you can probably assume it's lower for 2016 and 2017.
My bad. It's for the most recent class they have data for. So the other stat that got quoted was 97% employment 10 months after graduation. I guess that should be reflected in the next set of ABA data to come out.

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Re: Is Sticker Debt for a T-10 worth it in 2016?

Post by fliptrip » Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:22 pm

jnwa wrote:
Just got back from.Michigan preview weekend to Im gunna do some Mich trolling. Career service guy said the Oci success rate was 80% for the class of 2015. Isn't that a more accurate proxy for estimated chances of biglaw. I'm sure the rates are other T14s save (maybe) Georgetown are similar thus wouldn't it make all those schools NPV positive? Obviously that data isn't available for all schools so it'd be tough to do a comparison without it. I'm just trying to say that your analysis may have actually been on the conservative side.
It's good to be able to work from real data. This does improve my estimate for Michigan's biglaw odds from 68% to 80%. I'd be happy to leave 80% as a baseline for Berkeley as well, but for other schools, their implied odds are better than 80%. All indications are that your biglaw odds are simply better than 80% at Columbia, Chicago, NYU, and Penn.

Even at 80% biglaw success rate, according to flip's quick test, they are still NPV negative, though not nearly as badly as before...

Michigan sticker COA: $277k, expected 2-year earnings: $264k, NPV: ($13k).

The issue is the COA figures...the schools are just too expensive. Of the "t-10", Michigan is the only one with a COA lower than $300k. Again, law school is just too damn expensive.

I think it's good to have as many different ways of looking at this as possible. The anecdotal positions that are repeated often enough to become conventional wisdom around here are one type of approach, and a very effective one at that. But, I think it's also helpful to be able to put these choices in something closer to objective terms. Here's another way to look at it. If you take on sticker debt at Michigan, you'll be paying upwards of $3300/month, or 25% of a biglaw pre-tax salary on a 10-year am. If you make it 4 years in biglaw, and apply all of your increases and bonuses to servicing your debt, you will still owe $55k.

This path is fraught with difficulty and hard to follow. There's the big issue of biglaw being a job that many despise and struggle to stay in for any period of time. There's also the issue of your life developing and changing while you're trying to service these loans. It's going to be hard to send that bonus money to the student loan company instead of putting that diamond on your sweetie's finger or putting a downpayment on a house or something like that. If you just keep making your monthly during your stint in biglaw, you'll exit out after four years owing $183k! So, on balance, if it can be avoided, I'd stay away from sticker debt.

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Re: Is Sticker Debt for a T-10 worth it in 2016?

Post by fliptrip » Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:28 pm

Tls2016 wrote:What is OCI success rate? It doesn't equal actual jobs after graduation, correct?

Also, at what debt level are none of the T14 worth it? Even if you assume two years of biglaw salary as your standard of whether ROI is positive and all your other assumptions.
Great question and we are approaching that point very quickly, as soon as next year if market salaries don't increase.

With my quick test, the highest expected 2-year earnings are $330k. Right now, Harvard is right at $330k, Columbia is at $329k, and NYU/Stanford are at $320k. They way they are going now, each of them will be NPV negative beginning with the class that will start school in the fall of 2017.

Lesson as always, law school is expensive in a way that cannot be rationalized with economics.

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Re: Is Sticker Debt for a T-10 worth it in 2016?

Post by jnwa » Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:32 pm

Tls2016 wrote:What is OCI success rate? It doesn't equal actual jobs after graduation, correct?

Also, at what debt level are none of the T14 worth it? Even if you assume two years of biglaw salary as your standard of whether ROI is positive and all your other assumptions.
Oci success rate equals 2l job offers via oci and doesn't include people who get those jobs via other methods. I think using it instead of biglaw+fed clerk corrects for some of the self selection bias.

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Re: Is Sticker Debt for a T-10 worth it in 2016?

Post by jnwa » Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:39 pm

fliptrip wrote:
jnwa wrote:
Just got back from.Michigan preview weekend to Im gunna do some Mich trolling. Career service guy said the Oci success rate was 80% for the class of 2015. Isn't that a more accurate proxy for estimated chances of biglaw. I'm sure the rates are other T14s save (maybe) Georgetown are similar thus wouldn't it make all those schools NPV positive? Obviously that data isn't available for all schools so it'd be tough to do a comparison without it. I'm just trying to say that your analysis may have actually been on the conservative side.
It's good to be able to work from real data. This does improve my estimate for Michigan's biglaw odds from 68% to 80%. I'd be happy to leave 80% as a baseline for Berkeley as well, but for other schools, their implied odds are better than 80%. All indications are that your biglaw odds are simply better than 80% at Columbia, Chicago, NYU, and Penn.

Even at 80% biglaw success rate, according to flip's quick test, they are still NPV negative, though not nearly as badly as before...

Michigan sticker COA: $277k, expected 2-year earnings: $264k, NPV: ($13k).

The issue is the COA figures...the schools are just too expensive. Of the "t-10", Michigan is the only one with a COA lower than $300k. Again, law school is just too damn expensive.

I think it's good to have as many different ways of looking at this as possible. The anecdotal positions that are repeated often enough to become conventional wisdom around here are one type of approach, and a very effective one at that. But, I think it's also helpful to be able to put these choices in something closer to objective terms. Here's another way to look at it. If you take on sticker debt at Michigan, you'll be paying upwards of $3300/month, or 25% of a biglaw pre-tax salary on a 10-year am. If you make it 4 years in biglaw, and apply all of your increases and bonuses to servicing your debt, you will still owe $55k.

This path is fraught with difficulty and hard to follow. There's the big issue of biglaw being a job that many despise and struggle to stay in for any period of time. There's also the issue of your life developing and changing while you're trying to service these loans. It's going to be hard to send that bonus money to the student loan company instead of putting that diamond on your sweetie's finger or putting a downpayment on a house or something like that. If you just keep making your monthly during your stint in biglaw, you'll exit out after four years owing $183k! So, on balance, if it can be avoided, I'd stay away from sticker debt.
Agreed. Great analysis btw. I personally wouldn't pay sticker anywhere because debt scares me. But as someone who is a splitter with an essentially unemployable undergrad major, I can see how the long term upside of a law degree might make sense even at sticker.

Going into medicine or finance or computer science isn't a path that is feasible for a lot of people who apply to law school. It's often academia or law and at least with the latter at a t10 you're almost guaranteed a job.

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Re: Is Sticker Debt for a T-10 worth it in 2016?

Post by fliptrip » Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:48 pm

jnwa wrote:
Agreed. Great analysis btw. I personally wouldn't pay sticker anywhere because debt scares me. But as someone who is a splitter with an essentially unemployable undergrad major, I can see how the long term upside of a law degree might make sense even at sticker.

Going into medicine or finance or computer science isn't a path that is feasible for a lot of people who apply to law school. It's often academia or law and at least with the latter at a t10 you're almost guaranteed a job.
You are hitting on a big consideration. What each of us would do if we didn't invest in law school is something that varies according to the person. If you have a degree in Ancient History, the whole investment decision looks a lot different because your net payoffs are so much higher. If you take that degree into the marketplace, you're looking at a pretty good shot of being unemployed. In that case, the law school decision is going to make good financial sense even if your salary maxes out at the $170k you make your second year of biglaw. If you settle into making high five figures, you're going to be doing far better than you would trying to get a job with your expansive knowledge of Caligula.

It's the econ majors and engineers who the law school choice becomes much more curious for...

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Re: Is Sticker Debt for a T-10 worth it in 2016?

Post by fliptrip » Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:49 pm

And by the way jnwa, you're making a life altering kind of investment by going with your Darrow...to get paid to go to law school is quite a thing. You definitely won this game, bud.

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Re: Is Sticker Debt for a T-10 worth it in 2016?

Post by Olliedemars » Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:00 pm

No--unless you have a personality type that won't be riddled with anxiety by being saddled with lots of debt.

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Re: Is Sticker Debt for a T-10 worth it in 2016?

Post by jp1447 » Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:46 pm

I think a better question is what level of debt is worth it at each school assuming a big law outcome?

Many kids in my class gave up top schools at sticker for a lower T14 $$$. For me, and this was entirely subjective, the thought of borrowing more than 100k was pure insanity. I get that people do it, but I personally would rather have a car or have my rent paid. And for me, this 100k figure factored in both my scholarship, savings, and family support (as well as the Total COA of each school).

Also, I feel people tend to hyper-focus on the best possible outcomes at each school (federal/app. clerkships, V10 employment -- the super lofty shit). I quickly realized in law school that it's probably better when choosing a law school to consider less favorable outcomes as well: average grades, a souring economy, perhaps you end up hating the work, etc.

By considering what you're willing and able to pay upon graduating and the floor or worst case at each school, I think you'll have a better mindset and approach to law school. 160K is all but guaranteed at any T14 if you put in even a marginal effort...

Sure a Columbia degree may mean a lot more to you or the average lawyer than say a Duke degree, but knowing 2k/month of each paycheck of yours for the next 10 years is not being burned is a comforting feeling -- especially when you find yourself in the middle or bottom of your first-year class and realize that your dreams of clerking for Scalia or working at Wachtel are long gone....

Be reasonable. If you're paying for it yourself, is any one school REALLY worth $320,000.00?

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Re: Is Sticker Debt for a T-10 worth it in 2016?

Post by rpupkin » Sun Mar 20, 2016 11:10 pm

jp1447 wrote:Also, I feel people tend to hyper-focus on the best possible outcomes at each school (federal/app. clerkships, V10 employment -- the super lofty shit). I quickly realized in law school that it's probably better when choosing a law school to consider less favorable outcomes as well: average grades, a souring economy, perhaps you end up hating the work, etc.
It's even worse than you realize: your characterization of the best possible outcome—"federal/app. clerkships, V10 employment"—is really not that different than the typical outcome of the median T14 law school graduate. The vast majority of clerks go to law firms after their clerkships. Also, I seriously doubt that associates at V10 firms are happier than other associates. If anything, associates at the "V10" firms tend to have worse hours—and in many cases less interesting work—than associates at lower-ranked (or unranked) firms.

jp1447 wrote:Sure a Columbia degree may mean a lot more to you or the average lawyer than say a Duke degree,
Again, you're not being pessimistic enough. The "average lawyer" couldn't care less whether you went to Columbia instead of Duke (or whether you went to NYU instead of Penn).

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Re: Is Sticker Debt for a T-10 worth it in 2016?

Post by RZ5646 » Sun Mar 20, 2016 11:14 pm

jp1447 wrote:160K is all but guaranteed at any T14 if you put in even a marginal effort...
How true is this? TLS has led me to believe that outside of the T6, biglaw isn't close to guaranteed.

This comment interested me (a 0L) because I'm also very debt averse and I've gotten some good scholarship offers, but even with a six-figure scholly, the cost of law school seems absolutely insane. How far down should one go to avoid debt? Is it wise to save 30k by going to a T20 instead of a lower T14? What about saving 90k by picking a T20 over a T6?

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Re: Is Sticker Debt for a T-10 worth it in 2016?

Post by jp1447 » Mon Mar 21, 2016 1:27 am

Your debt question can only be answered if you were to provide more information. Surely you know this considering you've posted 2200 times on this thing as a 0L no less.

I mentioned my debt consideration for exactly the same reason -- its a largely idiosyncratic evaluation once you admit that sticker price is almost entirely absurd if its completely financed by debt. As I said, I was only willing to borrow 100K because I did not want to have debt for more than 10 years (and be paying around 1k/month). For whatever reason, that was my line in the sand. I turned down several "T10" schools for that reason. I guess I felt that amount gave me some sense of comfort if corporate law at a top firm was unbearable or if I somehow did way worse than expected... You also realize if your goal is 160k and a shot at clerking, you're looking at really close numbers down the list (insert Yale, Stanford, G-Town disclaimers).

Back to your question though: I don't think there is a general answer on what a scholarship at school A is worth v. more or less at school B. You've certainly read the lengthy discussions on here when kids have weighed options and provided their personal details. You would have to look at those or again provide your actual personal factors. Still, if you aren't paying for it and your parents are, Congrats -- this doesn't pertain to you. Go to a T9 over a T10 or whatever makes you happy.

If one could generalize though, I would say that breaking into the T14 for big law is worth a fair amount of debt, certainly more than a non-T14 school. However, once you start parsing T14 rankings and factoring scholarships, the metrics become almost entirely dependent on the person. Additionally, regional concerns and career aspirations can make nonT14 more attractive. For example, if you're committed to a particular non-big law hub (i.e., not NY, Chicago, Boston, LA, etc), then some non-T14 offer more upside than others (still though in almost every circumstance the T14 graduate will do better in that market), like BU or BC (for Boston) or a place like Emory (for Atlanta).

My point was largely if you get into NYU or Columbia and have to borrow 320,000.00 ($3,200 after tax dollars every month for 10 years) to pursue biglaw, you are making an enormous mistake by saying no to $$$ at a schools like Cornell, Georgetown, or Duke. It's as simple as that. If you end up a divorced biglaw 9th year associate (like most), you'll be saving less than the guy that cleans your office once you subtract alimony, your loans, and your overpriced wardrobe... Then, you'll look back and say, I wish I took that 120K discount at Duke instead of paying full price to NYU (again if biglaw is your goal)....

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Re: Is Sticker Debt for a T-10 worth it in 2016?

Post by Tls2016 » Mon Mar 21, 2016 2:04 am

RZ5646 wrote:
jp1447 wrote:160K is all but guaranteed at any T14 if you put in even a marginal effort...
How true is this? TLS has led me to believe that outside of the T6, biglaw isn't close to guaranteed.

This comment interested me (a 0L) because I'm also very debt averse and I've gotten some good scholarship offers, but even with a six-figure scholly, the cost of law school seems absolutely insane. How far down should one go to avoid debt? Is it wise to save 30k by going to a T20 instead of a lower T14? What about saving 90k by picking a T20 over a T6?
I believe that statement is false. The curve is in play to distinguish among students. The amount of effort required to get the grades needed will vary by student but I don't think a marginal effort at any T14 means you get $160,000.
I agree that the cost of law school is insane.
Once you are into regional schools including some T14s, you can't make blanket statements about ranking and cost. Make a thread asking for advice for your situation.

It's also not true, at my old firm at least, that senior associates were mostly divorced. Most of them are married with at least one kid.

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Re: Is Sticker Debt for a T-10 worth it in 2016?

Post by YoungSimba » Mon Mar 21, 2016 2:41 am

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Last edited by YoungSimba on Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:20 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Is Sticker Debt for a T-10 worth it in 2016?

Post by Tls2016 » Mon Mar 21, 2016 4:04 am

YoungSimba wrote:UVA posted something about 60% of their class paying sticker. Is TLS wisdom that the majority of that 60% is out of their mind crazy and making a big mistake?

Edit: I use UVA as an example because some say the T6 is more justifiable at sticker.
1. UVA has that ED program some people use if they think they don't have T14 numbers.
2. Not all of that is debt financed sticker.
3. I think they are making a mistake but other people here are happy to recommend PAYE and just keep paying until you are around 50 if you miss biglaw. I feel a significant number will regret it whethe they be biglaw or not. People going to law school at sticker because of the money may find the money is insufficient. Law isn't the career to plan to get rich.

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