Have to decide TODAY - GULC v UMich

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GULC v UMich?

Poll ended at Thu Apr 16, 2015 1:26 pm

GULC
18
35%
UMich
33
65%
 
Total votes: 51

krads153
Posts: 632
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2015 4:18 pm

Re: Have to decide TODAY - GULC v UMich

Postby krads153 » Thu Apr 16, 2015 1:59 pm

Moneytrees wrote:Well one thing in GULC's favor is that they have decreased their class sizes. Maybe not by as much as they should have, but still, it's a step in the right direction. In this case, it's such a close call that I think OP should decide based on other factors, like where he/she wants to spend 3 years for school.


Not sure what you're getting at - Michigan has decreased its class size by 40 to 50 for classes graduating in 2016 (I believe it's 2016) onward. (This just doesn't show up in the most recent employment stats, since that's for the Class that graduated in 2014. Michigan still had 390 total in the Class that graduated in 2014.)

Since OP would be Class of 2018, OP would be in the decreased class size.

Just as reference: Michigan took in for the Class of 2017, 318 1Ls. This number used to be around 360.

https://www.law.umich.edu/prospectivest ... stics.aspx

OneLisfun
Posts: 81
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2014 7:33 pm

Re: Have to decide TODAY - GULC v UMich

Postby OneLisfun » Thu Apr 16, 2015 2:10 pm

krads153 wrote:
OneLisfun wrote:
zacharus85 wrote:1) The difference, long-term, is not small enough such that GULC is clearly equal or even close to UMich.

2) The metric I'm using is the most commonly and most logically rigorous, for the reasons I already gave upthread.

Read literally any other thread where competent people are discussing how to analyze outcomes. Here, I found one for you:

http://top-law-schools.com/forums/viewt ... 2&t=245859

3) The people I know here who obtained government jobs had prior connections/experience (GULC's evening division skews this). This is irrelevant for general analysis because NO entry-level government jobs pay near enough to justify sticker-debt (which OP is taking on) and it's irrelevant here because OP isn't seeking government jobs anyway.

4) I did not say GULC is in a boom year. There is a big difference between 'boom year' and 'barely treading water,' the latter being a much more accurate characterization. There was a very moderate gain in percentages (less than 2%) - BUT this came from a reduction in class size (645 to 626) rather than a boost in Long-term BigLaw employment (300 up to 303 - WOW!). Also it's important to put this in the context of the market - GULC got a serious hit in the recession because of its history of shady practices that barely keep it in the t14. It's recovering but it is still consistently behind the rest of the pack.

5) I didn't address it because it is dumb. No one who has ever seriously been through OCI thinks students try for one market, fail, and then just don't get employed. People generally bid multiple markets, and will downgrade to secondary markets if they have to in order to get employed. In any case, we don't have the data to suggest whether more people who get into these big markets in either school are getting BigLaw jobs or something crappy just to keep on surviving, so it's kind of moot.

Regarding GULC problems: I've already said upthread a decent bit about this: Applications to law schools are down and the law economy isn't getting better. GULC has institutional issues that prevent it from meaningfully adapting to this: it can't cut class size because of a small endowment (they need the tuition money), and they can't reduce their reliance on transfers (like OP) for the same reason. OP will be one among many transfers at GULC (100! That is a criminal amount). As belts tighten, GULC is not going to be able to keep up. If we look, say, 3 years back at 2011 numbers, we see that UMich was rocking 44% BigLaw employment compared to GULC's 37%. Is that super huge? No - not enough to justify sticker debt vs. scholly. But $30K? I'd pay that for that little bit of extra security any day of the week.



One thing I would just like to separate here is the difference between a school being worse overall and worse for getting NY big law. I am not claiming that Michigan is not better for a person who is from Chicago who wants Chicago big law (I'm not sure about this, but it's probably true I guess).

Regardless of the students trying for one market and failing thing, it is a fact that if a student puts half his bids into DC and he has a 20% chance at each of those firms based on his gpa, and then puts in the other half of his bids into the market where he has a 40% chance at each firm, and at a separate school, that same student with the same prospects puts all 100% of his bids into the market with the 40% chance per firm, and this scenario happens numerous times (or other ones like it) on the whole, yes, I do believe that could account for around 5% or so of a difference that wouldn't be there otherwise.

We all know that Georgetown does not have a true home market, because while it is easier to get DC big law from there than other comparable schools, it is still harder to get than NY, so for purposes of this discussion, it could be said to have the equivalent of no home market.

Georgetown's three largest employers are DC, NY, and Cali, with DC being the largest by far. UMich, on the other hand, has as its top 3 as NY, Illinois, and Michigan. (about 14% are in Michigan) (Interestingly, they both have about the same exact percentage in NY, not that I believe that to be dispositive at all, just interesting.)

I understand that there's no piece of paper with an exact percentage on it like the stats you like, and which I also like and understand are the main thing to look at, but to discount everything that can't be known entirely when we see these clear pieces of evidence that conservatively would account for at least a 3% difference, when there's a 5% difference or in a certain type of year, a 7% difference between GULC and UMich, that is really not enough to choose UMich over GULC for NY if there's any other reason the person has to prefer GULC.

To take an exaggerated example of this, we can all look at UT's employment stats and in certain years decide that UT must be about the same for NY big law as GULC. The percentages show it, and you can't prove otherwise, but if you use your common sense, it is clear that UT has many students from Texas there who are trying for Texas and getting it and then making the school have large employment numbers that would not apply to a market like NY or DC, and furthermore, would not apply to any person going there who is not from Texas, and especially not to anyone from NY or DC. In this case, if you are at all reasonable, in a year where UT and GULC had the same placement, I think you'd agree that it almost certainly took far less for a person at GULC to have gotten NY big law that year than a similar person who was at UT that year.

UMich is a far lesser version of that. However, 14% in Michigan, a 14% that does not exist at GULC for any market, is a hard number that I think would be worth looking at when comparing the two schools, rather than simply adding up the big law plus fed clerk number at both schools and comparing them. 7% (being generous here in my opinion) doesn't look as good when you start looking at these things. That number starts to seem more like, at best, a 3 or 4% better chance at NY big law (and in a year where they are 5% apart like the most recent year, 1-2%)


TL;only skimmed.....not sure what you're getting at. Just wanted to point out that there is basically no such thing as "biglaw" in the state of Michigan....so I don't think that Michigan's BL+federal clerkship numbers even count firm employment in the state of Michigan. A lot of Michigan people want to stay in Michigan and these people don't look elsewhere even if they have competitive grades...but that's not even counted in the biglaw numbers, so what's your point again?

Anyway Michigan reduced its class size after these numbers came out by 40 to 50, so that should only help. GULC on the other hand is still accepting massive amounts of transfers.



Michigan does have big law using the 100+ metric, which is what myself and most people on here are referring to when we say big law plus fed clerk. Also, they certainly are going to recruit heavily from Michigan, the few that there are. http://www.crainsdetroit.com/article/20 ... -law-firms

What I'm getting at is comparing the overall big law numbers of a school that has a home market in which they send a good amount of people to and comparing that overall number to another school in which they don't have that, then estimating big law for new york based on that has some degree of error (something you can ignore when two schools are 15 or 20% apart in my opinion, but not 5-7%, just an opinion though). I'm not insulting the school, I'm just explaining what I think as far as one's prospect of getting NY big law from one of the schools. I think I've said enough on this though.

krads153
Posts: 632
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2015 4:18 pm

Re: Have to decide TODAY - GULC v UMich

Postby krads153 » Thu Apr 16, 2015 2:21 pm

OneLisfun wrote:
krads153 wrote:
TL;only skimmed.....not sure what you're getting at. Just wanted to point out that there is basically no such thing as "biglaw" in the state of Michigan....so I don't think that Michigan's BL+federal clerkship numbers even count firm employment in the state of Michigan. A lot of Michigan people want to stay in Michigan and these people don't look elsewhere even if they have competitive grades...but that's not even counted in the biglaw numbers, so what's your point again?

Anyway Michigan reduced its class size after these numbers came out by 40 to 50, so that should only help. GULC on the other hand is still accepting massive amounts of transfers.



Michigan does have big law using the 100+ metric, which is what myself and most people on here are referring to when we say big law plus fed clerk. Also, they certainly are going to recruit heavily from Michigan, the few that there are. http://www.crainsdetroit.com/article/20 ... -law-firms

What I'm getting at is comparing the overall big law numbers of a school that has a home market in which they send a good amount of people to and comparing that overall number to another school in which they don't have that, then estimating big law for new york based on that has some degree of error (something you can ignore when two schools are 15 or 20% apart in my opinion, but not 5-7%, just an opinion though). I'm not insulting the school, I'm just explaining what I think as far as one's prospect of getting NY big law from one of the schools. I think I've said enough on this though.


Ok, well I went to Michigan and I know the general grade cut offs for Michigan v. NYC firms. Some of these 100+ Michigan firms have much higher GPA cut offs than for NYC biglaw....assuming there's enough need in NYC, it's actually easier getting biglaw in NYC than it is in Michigan. A lot of people just don't want to be in NYC.

I could also give you a ton of anecdotal info and link you linkedin profiles of people who graduated magna cum laude with me but went into PI or are doing dual degrees with a PhD, but you could probably do the same. We also had a big movie star's kid who went into PI and didn't do OCI and a bunch of Darrow scholarship holders who didn't do OCI either. There were some older people who graduated like order of the coif who didn't do OCI because they were middle aged and got a JD for other purposes.....these numbers don't go into BL numbers but they had better grades than most of us who went into BL.

User1855
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Re: Have to decide TODAY - GULC v UMich

Postby User1855 » Thu Apr 16, 2015 2:27 pm

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Last edited by User1855 on Fri Jul 24, 2015 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.

User1855
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Joined: Sun Mar 02, 2014 5:46 pm

Re: Have to decide TODAY - GULC v UMich

Postby User1855 » Thu Apr 16, 2015 2:35 pm

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Last edited by User1855 on Fri Jul 24, 2015 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.

OneLisfun
Posts: 81
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2014 7:33 pm

Re: Have to decide TODAY - GULC v UMich

Postby OneLisfun » Thu Apr 16, 2015 3:00 pm

krads153 wrote:
OneLisfun wrote:
krads153 wrote:
TL;only skimmed.....not sure what you're getting at. Just wanted to point out that there is basically no such thing as "biglaw" in the state of Michigan....so I don't think that Michigan's BL+federal clerkship numbers even count firm employment in the state of Michigan. A lot of Michigan people want to stay in Michigan and these people don't look elsewhere even if they have competitive grades...but that's not even counted in the biglaw numbers, so what's your point again?

Anyway Michigan reduced its class size after these numbers came out by 40 to 50, so that should only help. GULC on the other hand is still accepting massive amounts of transfers.



Michigan does have big law using the 100+ metric, which is what myself and most people on here are referring to when we say big law plus fed clerk. Also, they certainly are going to recruit heavily from Michigan, the few that there are. http://www.crainsdetroit.com/article/20 ... -law-firms

What I'm getting at is comparing the overall big law numbers of a school that has a home market in which they send a good amount of people to and comparing that overall number to another school in which they don't have that, then estimating big law for new york based on that has some degree of error (something you can ignore when two schools are 15 or 20% apart in my opinion, but not 5-7%, just an opinion though). I'm not insulting the school, I'm just explaining what I think as far as one's prospect of getting NY big law from one of the schools. I think I've said enough on this though.


Ok, well I went to Michigan and I know the general grade cut offs for Michigan v. NYC firms. Some of these 100+ Michigan firms have much higher GPA cut offs than for NYC biglaw....assuming there's enough need in NYC, it's actually easier getting biglaw in NYC than it is in Michigan. A lot of people just don't want to be in NYC.

I could also give you a ton of anecdotal info and link you linkedin profiles of people who graduated magna cum laude with me but went into PI or are doing dual degrees with a PhD, but you could probably do the same. We also had a big movie star's kid who went into PI and didn't do OCI and a bunch of Darrow scholarship holders who didn't do OCI either. There were some older people who graduated like order of the coif who didn't do OCI because they were middle aged and got a JD for other purposes.....these numbers don't go into BL numbers but they had better grades than most of us who went into BL.



As far as UMich having higher grade cutoffs for the Michigan firms, if that's definitely the case, I still think what I'm saying applies, just to a lesser degree than I thought (assuming those firms actually follow their cutoffs, many don't, and what you should be looking at is their medians from past years, not their cutoffs). None of us have any way to confirm what you're saying though, so I wouldn't suggest someone make a decision based off that.

As far as the rest of the things you said, every school has things like that, we can ignore factors like that because they exist at all schools, and there's no use trying to account for that because there's no reason why more of that would be going on at UMich than at GULC.

What is specific to GULC and not specific to UMich is the fact that GULC does not have a home market. We have the numbers in front of us, and they say 14% of UMich is going to their home market.

krads153
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Re: Have to decide TODAY - GULC v UMich

Postby krads153 » Thu Apr 16, 2015 3:03 pm

OneLisfun wrote:
krads153 wrote:
OneLisfun wrote:
krads153 wrote:
TL;only skimmed.....not sure what you're getting at. Just wanted to point out that there is basically no such thing as "biglaw" in the state of Michigan....so I don't think that Michigan's BL+federal clerkship numbers even count firm employment in the state of Michigan. A lot of Michigan people want to stay in Michigan and these people don't look elsewhere even if they have competitive grades...but that's not even counted in the biglaw numbers, so what's your point again?

Anyway Michigan reduced its class size after these numbers came out by 40 to 50, so that should only help. GULC on the other hand is still accepting massive amounts of transfers.



Michigan does have big law using the 100+ metric, which is what myself and most people on here are referring to when we say big law plus fed clerk. Also, they certainly are going to recruit heavily from Michigan, the few that there are. http://www.crainsdetroit.com/article/20 ... -law-firms

What I'm getting at is comparing the overall big law numbers of a school that has a home market in which they send a good amount of people to and comparing that overall number to another school in which they don't have that, then estimating big law for new york based on that has some degree of error (something you can ignore when two schools are 15 or 20% apart in my opinion, but not 5-7%, just an opinion though). I'm not insulting the school, I'm just explaining what I think as far as one's prospect of getting NY big law from one of the schools. I think I've said enough on this though.


Ok, well I went to Michigan and I know the general grade cut offs for Michigan v. NYC firms. Some of these 100+ Michigan firms have much higher GPA cut offs than for NYC biglaw....assuming there's enough need in NYC, it's actually easier getting biglaw in NYC than it is in Michigan. A lot of people just don't want to be in NYC.

I could also give you a ton of anecdotal info and link you linkedin profiles of people who graduated magna cum laude with me but went into PI or are doing dual degrees with a PhD, but you could probably do the same. We also had a big movie star's kid who went into PI and didn't do OCI and a bunch of Darrow scholarship holders who didn't do OCI either. There were some older people who graduated like order of the coif who didn't do OCI because they were middle aged and got a JD for other purposes.....these numbers don't go into BL numbers but they had better grades than most of us who went into BL.



As far as UMich having higher grade cutoffs for the Michigan firms, if that's definitely the case, I still think what I'm saying applies, just to a lesser degree than I thought (assuming those firms actually follow their cutoffs, many don't, and what you should be looking at is their medians from past years, not their cutoffs). None of us have any way to confirm what you're saying though, so I wouldn't suggest someone make a decision based off that.

As far as the rest of the things you said, every school has things like that, we can ignore factors like that because they exist at all schools, and there's no use trying to account for that because there's no reason why more of that would be going on at UMich than at GULC.

What is specific to GULC and not specific to UMich is the fact that GULC does not have a home market. We have the numbers in front of us, and they say 14% of UMich is going to their home market.


Re: Michigan firms - it's average GPAs for callbacks, not grade cutoffs. OCI gave us a sheet (not sure if they still do this, but probably) so we can select our bids. I distinctly remember one of the Michigan firms you posted having like a 3.6+ average for callbacks (back when our average 1L GPA was 3.19 - they upped the curve after I graduated). Just ask any Michigan student and they can confirm this info. Whereas there were a lot of NYC firms with much lower medians/averages. I bid on NYC since it seemed safer. I also got offers/callbacks in biglaw through mass mailing in other big and secondary cities, so that does sometimes work.
Last edited by krads153 on Thu Apr 16, 2015 3:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Other25BeforeYou
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Re: Have to decide TODAY - GULC v UMich

Postby Other25BeforeYou » Thu Apr 16, 2015 3:08 pm

User1855 wrote:
Hand wrote:So, OP, what did you decide?


Michigan! I decided that's where my spouse and I will be happiest living for 3 years and I think I'll perform better in the small town environment.

Really appreciate everyone's input. Seems like someone should just create a generic GULC v Michigan thread to let folks have it out.

Good luck to all still deciding!

Congrats! Go Blue!

OneLisfun
Posts: 81
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2014 7:33 pm

Re: Have to decide TODAY - GULC v UMich

Postby OneLisfun » Thu Apr 16, 2015 3:14 pm

Yeah, again, I would not suggest anyone make any decisions based off of this because there's no way to confirm it and you're one person saying it. I will say that if all of the Michigan firms have higher gpa medians than most of the NY firms, then yes, that takes away some amount of the effect that I am talking about. I just want to point out though that one Michigan firm having that as their median doesn't mean all of the Michigan firms are harder to get. Any market is going to have at least some firms that have high medians. They also could have those high medians by being picky about who they take that doesn't have ties, then letting some people that are below median who probably wouldn't get NY, but are getting a boost by actually being from Michigan, thereby the effect still being there. Additionally, there could be some Michigan firms that have more than 100 attorneys working there that don't come to OCI and take some Michigan kids who weren't competitive for NY big law, or even taking ones that were competitive for NY big law that just didn't get it, would have an effect (certainly an effect larger than the zero that GULC gets). If I actually saw the sheet though and all of the Michigan firms, or almost all, had these really high medians, that would take away from the effect I'm talking about a decent amount I think. I don't see that happening though, so based on what I can see, they seem to be roughly the same odds for getting NY big law. (No matter what, the effect isn't zero.)

krads153
Posts: 632
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Re: Have to decide TODAY - GULC v UMich

Postby krads153 » Thu Apr 16, 2015 3:25 pm

OneLisfun wrote:Yeah, again, I would not suggest anyone make any decisions based off of this because there's no way to confirm it and you're one person saying it. I will say that if all of the Michigan firms have higher gpa medians than most of the NY firms, then yes, that takes away some amount of the effect that I am talking about. I just want to point out though that one Michigan firm having that as their median doesn't mean all of the Michigan firms are harder to get. Any market is going to have at least some firms that have high medians. They also could have those high medians by being picky about who they take that doesn't have ties, then letting some people that are below median who probably wouldn't get NY, but are getting a boost by actually being from Michigan, thereby the effect still being there. Additionally, there could be some Michigan firms that have more than 100 attorneys working there that don't come to OCI and take some Michigan kids who weren't competitive for NY big law, or even taking ones that were competitive for NY big law that just didn't get it, would have an effect (certainly an effect larger than the zero that GULC gets). If I actually saw the sheet though and all of the Michigan firms, or almost all, had these really high medians, that would take away from the effect I'm talking about a decent amount I think. I don't see that happening though, so based on what I can see, they seem to be roughly the same odds for getting NY big law. (No matter what, the effect isn't zero.)


TL; only skimmed

To my recollection, averages for Michigan firms is a lot higher than NYC firms though. One big reason why I bid NYC was because it was the easiest market to get and when I did OCI it was a tougher market




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