zombie mcavoy wrote:sparkytrainer wrote:Just jumping in here and no offense to OP. It just goes to show how numbers don't mean everything when it comes to admissions at the t14 schools. Especially with Spivey already stating that splitters are having a rough year this year and looks like an even rougher year next year with how the number trends going. Sucks for splitters. I am one as well. But shows TLS is not always right in saying its numbers> everything. In a growing number of cases, it is not the truth anymore.
no. that's silly. present some data that shows something other than numbers (or AA) consistently gets people admitted. We have a wealth of data that shows the opposite. numbers are a necessary but not sufficient condition; if your application has serious defects or is late you're going to underperform.
Well in this case it seems to be neither in OPs application. Here are some numbers and trends for you:
http://spiveyconsulting.com/blog/predic ... ons-cycle/
"Last cycle, we saw an overall decrease in applications, but an increase among the highest LSAT scorers (165+). This cycle, in contrast, high scoring applicant numbers plummeted. Next cycle, can we expect to see an increase at these bandwidths again? We’re betting yes. The elasticity of these numbers is much higher than the overall pool precisely because there are so much fewer at the top (LSAC scores follow a rough bell curve) and thus a decline one year often is a harbinger of an increase the next (and visa versa, of course)."
This shows that having a top score is great for the application, but it is not a sufficient condition anymore with an increase in top scores.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =603088793
That is the actual data for the above statement.
So, unlike what you constantly preach, it is not a TOTALLY NECESSARY condition by having the numbers = acceptances.
Agreed Spivey is projecting, but the numbers ARE showing an increase in higher scores from 165+ from 2013-2014 from 2012-2013. That means higher scores, more competition for spots. Even if the overall application pool is lower, if the top scores are rising, then more competition for top schools. In these cases, it seems as a general trend (no specific data to back this up except projections I admit) that splitters are having a rougher time just because of the increase in higher scores. Also you can take this years projected numbers as exactly what you were saying-unsubstantiated.
But I am sure you are all competent to read the increase in scores from last year. Or maybe not.