patogordo wrote:they aren't being taught by the same professor. they aren't even being graded on the same scale. the correlation between lsat and 1L gpa is miniscule, and barely statistically significant, and that's for students at the same school taking the same classes on the same curve with roughly the same professors.
1) "They aren't being taught by the same professor being graded on the same scale."
Here, we're comparing how a student would fare in two counterfactuals: student taking a 1L test (Torts for instance) at a higher ranked school after a semester vs. student taking the test at a lower-ranked school. We can compare where statistically the student will be at at when her lsat/ugpa stats are among the lower group of scores and where statistically they'll be ranked among the higher group of scores.
So, what we'd like to be able to test would be repeated series of a student with different input combinations attending semesters of law school and see where, on average they place. Absent this information, we can only use the information we do have (from LSAC, limited transfer data) in conjunction with our intuitions to think about how large an effect the "small pond" would have.
2) "barely statistically significant"http://www.lsac.org/docs/default-source ... rmance.pdf
LSAC says that the two input metrics, taken together, have a .48 correlation with first-year performance. This conforms with anecdotal data from TLS suggesting a slight drop on average in the ranking of transfer students.This is not the highest correlation especially when you consider that you're not looking at extremes. But it suggests that you will perform modestly better at a significantly lower-ranked school (i.e. t14 vs. t1). I don't know what precisely how it would translate, on average, but my intuition suggests that it's not negligible, and could factor (among many other things) into a difficult choice.
I am not arguing that it's a huge factor, I'm saying that it reasonably could be determinitive (at least worth considering) for people who have tough choices between schools that are significantly apart in the input score bands of their students ($$$$ T1 v. sticker T14)
I'm just dying to know more about you personally. Did you attend law school? where?
2L at Chicago