UF vs UVA?

(Rankings, Profiles, Tuition, Student Life, . . . )

Which for Miami/S.FL Big law

UF - Full Ride
8
40%
UVA - Sticker
12
60%
 
Total votes: 20

homie1515
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Re: T14/UF/ Vandy to South Florida

Postby homie1515 » Sun Jun 30, 2013 12:03 am

untar614 wrote:
homie1515 wrote:So you don't recommend be blanket the t7-t15 including RD UVA, then possibly changing that to ED if nothing else pans out?


This could result in some tricky game theory-esque situation in which we have to weigh preferences against likelihoods to see what gives us the best result on average. I say come back with a score (seriously, it's less than a week away) and then we can better try to formulate a strategy.


Got it will do. Please stick around until then to help me out... Your assistance, as has everyone's on this board, has been invaluable to me.

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Monochromatic Oeuvre
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Re: T14/UF/ Vandy to South Florida

Postby Monochromatic Oeuvre » Sun Jun 30, 2013 12:30 am

Lavitz wrote:As much as I'd like to tease you guys about your ATL ranking, I have to agree it makes no sense. Off-topic here, but at 5:50 in this video, Elie tries to claim that the Columbia / NYU drop is due to NYC being hit harder than other markets. Doesn't explain why Cornell would go up two spots compared with USNWR then. No mention of educational cost as a factor.


I'd argue the Cornell ranking is about right. I would say Cornell, NU and Michigan being roughly similar on placement-based metrics is fine. Nothing ludicrous there.

It makes sense that schools like Penn and Duke, which have the two lowest non-Biglaw self-selection rates, would outperform the eye test. But if you'd pick either one over CLS, all else equal, you'd be kidding yourself. Yes, COL is more expensive in Manhattan, but we knew that already. None of CCNP have a particularly cheap COL. Yes, Charlottesville and Durham have a cheaper COL. But then again, it's Charlottesville and Durham. You get what you pay for. Also, worth noting there are probably some costs that a simplistic analysis doesn't account for. For example, I don't know about Durham, but in Charlottesville you probably will have a 12-month lease. You can't stay there during the summer if you expect to have legal employment, so you're gonna lose $2k each summer, unless you can find a subletter. Good luck trying to find someone who wants to be in Charlottesville over the summer.

Continuing on the previous point: Taking federal judgeships and SCOTUS clerkships doesn't make any more sense than taking V10 as a factor. I know I won't get a SCOTUS clerkship, and it would be 20 years before I had any idea if I could be a judge. But I do know that if I'm top quarter at CLS and I want V10, I can pretty much have it. It's not likely, but it's way more probable than being a SCOTUS clerk. Neither CLS nor Penn/Duke kids are going to SCOTUS, but CLS kids ARE going to V10 in a way Penn and Duke aren't. You can say Biglaw is Biglaw, but if I'm out the door five years deep, I'd much rather be looking for my next job with Cravath on my resume than Generic, Firm and Dimeadozen LLP. It's not the only thing prospective Biglaw students should look it, but it is relevant.

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Lavitz
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Re: T14/UF/ Vandy to South Florida

Postby Lavitz » Sun Jun 30, 2013 12:23 pm

Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote:Also, UVA ED with 3.3x and 170 is not a "near-guaranteed" chance. Better than RD for sure, but not a lock.

I don't know. You know I'm not one to believe numbers are everything, but a 100% success rate on LSN seems like a "near-guarantee" to me:

Image

UVA loves splitters ED so it can game the medians.

Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote:I'd argue the Cornell ranking is about right. I would say Cornell, NU and Michigan being roughly similar on placement-based metrics is fine. Nothing ludicrous there.

That's what I was pointing out. If Cornell is in the right spot, a weak NYC market can't be the only explanation for Columbia and NYU dropping since Cornell also feeds primarily into NYC.

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untar614
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Re: T14/UF/ Vandy to South Florida

Postby untar614 » Sun Jun 30, 2013 1:08 pm

Lavitz wrote:
Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote:Also, UVA ED with 3.3x and 170 is not a "near-guaranteed" chance. Better than RD for sure, but not a lock.

I don't know. You know I'm not one to believe numbers are everything, but a 100% success rate on LSN seems like a "near-guarantee" to me:

Image

UVA loves splitters ED so it can game the medians.

Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote:I'd argue the Cornell ranking is about right. I would say Cornell, NU and Michigan being roughly similar on placement-based metrics is fine. Nothing ludicrous there.

That's what I was pointing out. If Cornell is in the right spot, a weak NYC market can't be the only explanation for Columbia and NYU dropping since Cornell also feeds primarily into NYC.


Yeah, I've heard very divergent statements on the impact of the economic downturn on the NYC legal market compared to other places. People are either saying it was the most affected or the least affected. I know the guys at ATL say the former to explain the CLS/NYU drop, but as you've said, Cornell seems to indicate that's not the case. I tend to believe the latter, as it seems the really large financial industry players made it through the economic crash with relatively less damage (in part from screwing everyone else over), and these are some of the major clients of NYC biglaw, while most smaller firms will be dealing with clients who will now have much less money.

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jbagelboy
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Re: T14/UF/ Vandy to South Florida

Postby jbagelboy » Sun Jun 30, 2013 1:33 pm

Sure NYC was "hit" in 2007-2009, but not as bad as Los Angeles, Detroit, Chicago, ect. Basically any city outside of Texas. Some say Philly area growth in some new industries (pharms ect.) helped prop Penns numbers since they could feed into nyc or the local market, which cls/nyu dont have. Either way, considering that penn, duke, cornell all service nyc primarily, its just unsound to say they there's an impact to just nyc-located schools and not others. The rankings flaws are basically large scale data fail on the part of the statisticians, survey-takers, and methodology developers.

lawyerwannabe
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Re: T14/UF/ Vandy to South Florida

Postby lawyerwannabe » Sun Jun 30, 2013 1:56 pm

Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote:
Lavitz wrote:As much as I'd like to tease you guys about your ATL ranking, I have to agree it makes no sense. Off-topic here, but at 5:50 in this video, Elie tries to claim that the Columbia / NYU drop is due to NYC being hit harder than other markets. Doesn't explain why Cornell would go up two spots compared with USNWR then. No mention of educational cost as a factor.


I'd argue the Cornell ranking is about right. I would say Cornell, NU and Michigan being roughly similar on placement-based metrics is fine. Nothing ludicrous there.

It makes sense that schools like Penn and Duke, which have the two lowest non-Biglaw self-selection rates, would outperform the eye test. But if you'd pick either one over CLS, all else equal, you'd be kidding yourself. Yes, COL is more expensive in Manhattan, but we knew that already. None of CCNP have a particularly cheap COL. Yes, Charlottesville and Durham have a cheaper COL. But then again, it's Charlottesville and Durham. You get what you pay for. Also, worth noting there are probably some costs that a simplistic analysis doesn't account for. For example, I don't know about Durham, but in Charlottesville you probably will have a 12-month lease. You can't stay there during the summer if you expect to have legal employment, so you're gonna lose $2k each summer, unless you can find a subletter. Good luck trying to find someone who wants to be in Charlottesville over the summer.

Continuing on the previous point: Taking federal judgeships and SCOTUS clerkships doesn't make any more sense than taking V10 as a factor. I know I won't get a SCOTUS clerkship, and it would be 20 years before I had any idea if I could be a judge. But I do know that if I'm top quarter at CLS and I want V10, I can pretty much have it. It's not likely, but it's way more probable than being a SCOTUS clerk. Neither CLS nor Penn/Duke kids are going to SCOTUS, but CLS kids ARE going to V10 in a way Penn and Duke aren't. You can say Biglaw is Biglaw, but if I'm out the door five years deep, I'd much rather be looking for my next job with Cravath on my resume than Generic, Firm and Dimeadozen LLP. It's not the only thing prospective Biglaw students should look it, but it is relevant.


Source (regarding bolded)?

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Monochromatic Oeuvre
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Re: T14/UF/ Vandy to South Florida

Postby Monochromatic Oeuvre » Sun Jun 30, 2013 1:57 pm

Lavitz wrote:
Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote:Also, UVA ED with 3.3x and 170 is not a "near-guaranteed" chance. Better than RD for sure, but not a lock.

I don't know. You know I'm not one to believe numbers are everything, but a 100% success rate on LSN seems like a "near-guarantee" to me:

Image

UVA loves splitters ED so it can game the medians.


OP is not a splitter in the traditional sense. He has a median LSAT and a below 25th GPA. In his situation, a few points make all the difference. A 169 is pretty sure to be a rejection. A 171 and I might call him a near-guarantee. A 170? His chances are pretty good, but he shouldn't be absolutely counting on it.

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Lavitz
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Re: T14/UF/ Vandy to South Florida

Postby Lavitz » Sun Jun 30, 2013 2:02 pm

Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote:OP is not a splitter in the traditional sense. He has a median LSAT and a below 25th GPA. In his situation, a few points make all the difference. A 169 is pretty sure to be a rejection. A 171 and I might call him a near-guarantee. A 170? His chances are pretty good, but he shouldn't be absolutely counting on it.

We'll have to agree to disagree then. I'd call it a near-guarantee.

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Monochromatic Oeuvre
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Re: T14/UF/ Vandy to South Florida

Postby Monochromatic Oeuvre » Sun Jun 30, 2013 2:08 pm

lawyerwannabe wrote:
Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote:
Lavitz wrote:As much as I'd like to tease you guys about your ATL ranking, I have to agree it makes no sense. Off-topic here, but at 5:50 in this video, Elie tries to claim that the Columbia / NYU drop is due to NYC being hit harder than other markets. Doesn't explain why Cornell would go up two spots compared with USNWR then. No mention of educational cost as a factor.


I'd argue the Cornell ranking is about right. I would say Cornell, NU and Michigan being roughly similar on placement-based metrics is fine. Nothing ludicrous there.

It makes sense that schools like Penn and Duke, which have the two lowest non-Biglaw self-selection rates, would outperform the eye test. But if you'd pick either one over CLS, all else equal, you'd be kidding yourself. Yes, COL is more expensive in Manhattan, but we knew that already. None of CCNP have a particularly cheap COL. Yes, Charlottesville and Durham have a cheaper COL. But then again, it's Charlottesville and Durham. You get what you pay for. Also, worth noting there are probably some costs that a simplistic analysis doesn't account for. For example, I don't know about Durham, but in Charlottesville you probably will have a 12-month lease. You can't stay there during the summer if you expect to have legal employment, so you're gonna lose $2k each summer, unless you can find a subletter. Good luck trying to find someone who wants to be in Charlottesville over the summer.

Continuing on the previous point: Taking federal judgeships and SCOTUS clerkships doesn't make any more sense than taking V10 as a factor. I know I won't get a SCOTUS clerkship, and it would be 20 years before I had any idea if I could be a judge. But I do know that if I'm top quarter at CLS and I want V10, I can pretty much have it. It's not likely, but it's way more probable than being a SCOTUS clerk. Neither CLS nor Penn/Duke kids are going to SCOTUS, but CLS kids ARE going to V10 in a way Penn and Duke aren't. You can say Biglaw is Biglaw, but if I'm out the door five years deep, I'd much rather be looking for my next job with Cravath on my resume than Generic, Firm and Dimeadozen LLP. It's not the only thing prospective Biglaw students should look it, but it is relevant.


Source (regarding bolded)?


LST and some basic inferences. For example, the higher PI placement at Columbia and particularly NYU is not indicative of worse Biglaw placement than Penn--we know both of these schools place better. Ergo, more students at CLS and NYU self-selected into it. Both Penn and Duke have abnormally low PI/Govt placement numbers. It may be self-selection, or it may be year-to-year statistical variance.

homie1515
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Re: T14/UF/ Vandy to South Florida

Postby homie1515 » Sun Jun 30, 2013 2:19 pm

Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote:
Lavitz wrote:
Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote:Also, UVA ED with 3.3x and 170 is not a "near-guaranteed" chance. Better than RD for sure, but not a lock.

I don't know. You know I'm not one to believe numbers are everything, but a 100% success rate on LSN seems like a "near-guarantee" to me:


UVA loves splitters ED so it can game the medians.


OP is not a splitter in the traditional sense. He has a median LSAT and a below 25th GPA. In his situation, a few points make all the difference. A 169 is pretty sure to be a rejection. A 171 and I might call him a near-guarantee. A 170? His chances are pretty good, but he shouldn't be absolutely counting on it.


Isn't a splitter someone who is above 1 median and below another? Wouldn't i fall under that categorization?

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Lavitz
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Re: T14/UF/ Vandy to South Florida

Postby Lavitz » Sun Jun 30, 2013 2:32 pm

homie1515 wrote:Isn't a splitter someone who is above 1 median and below another? Wouldn't i fall under that categorization?

If you have a 170, you'd be at UVA's median and not above it. That's why Mono isn't classifying you as a splitter.

Also, the definition of a splitter varies. Some people say it's below 25th GPA and above 75th LSAT.

homie1515
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Re: T14/UF/ Vandy to South Florida

Postby homie1515 » Sun Jun 30, 2013 2:34 pm

Lavitz wrote:
homie1515 wrote:Isn't a splitter someone who is above 1 median and below another? Wouldn't i fall under that categorization?

If you have a 170, you'd be at UVA's median and not above it. That's why Mono isn't classifying you as a splitter.

Also, the definition of a splitter varies. Some people say it's below 25th GPA and above 75th LSAT.



O, I see.

So to be a splitter in the true sense of the word I need to have a 171 for UVA and Penn, or a 173/174 if I wanna be an extreme splitter as you mentioned above.

lawyerwannabe
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Re: T14/UF/ Vandy to South Florida

Postby lawyerwannabe » Sun Jun 30, 2013 2:40 pm

Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote:
lawyerwannabe wrote:
Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote:
Lavitz wrote:As much as I'd like to tease you guys about your ATL ranking, I have to agree it makes no sense. Off-topic here, but at 5:50 in this video, Elie tries to claim that the Columbia / NYU drop is due to NYC being hit harder than other markets. Doesn't explain why Cornell would go up two spots compared with USNWR then. No mention of educational cost as a factor.


I'd argue the Cornell ranking is about right. I would say Cornell, NU and Michigan being roughly similar on placement-based metrics is fine. Nothing ludicrous there.

It makes sense that schools like Penn and Duke, which have the two lowest non-Biglaw self-selection rates, would outperform the eye test. But if you'd pick either one over CLS, all else equal, you'd be kidding yourself. Yes, COL is more expensive in Manhattan, but we knew that already. None of CCNP have a particularly cheap COL. Yes, Charlottesville and Durham have a cheaper COL. But then again, it's Charlottesville and Durham. You get what you pay for. Also, worth noting there are probably some costs that a simplistic analysis doesn't account for. For example, I don't know about Durham, but in Charlottesville you probably will have a 12-month lease. You can't stay there during the summer if you expect to have legal employment, so you're gonna lose $2k each summer, unless you can find a subletter. Good luck trying to find someone who wants to be in Charlottesville over the summer.

Continuing on the previous point: Taking federal judgeships and SCOTUS clerkships doesn't make any more sense than taking V10 as a factor. I know I won't get a SCOTUS clerkship, and it would be 20 years before I had any idea if I could be a judge. But I do know that if I'm top quarter at CLS and I want V10, I can pretty much have it. It's not likely, but it's way more probable than being a SCOTUS clerk. Neither CLS nor Penn/Duke kids are going to SCOTUS, but CLS kids ARE going to V10 in a way Penn and Duke aren't. You can say Biglaw is Biglaw, but if I'm out the door five years deep, I'd much rather be looking for my next job with Cravath on my resume than Generic, Firm and Dimeadozen LLP. It's not the only thing prospective Biglaw students should look it, but it is relevant.


Source (regarding bolded)?


LST and some basic inferences. For example, the higher PI placement at Columbia and particularly NYU is not indicative of worse Biglaw placement than Penn--we know both of these schools place better. Ergo, more students at CLS and NYU self-selected into it. Both Penn and Duke have abnormally low PI/Govt placement numbers. It may be self-selection, or it may be year-to-year statistical variance.


Thanks for confirming that you don't have a source. Because what about the fact that many Duke students target markets and firms that are not in the realm of BigLaw? Or Duke's higher clerkship percentage placement?

I understand the point you are trying to make but generalizing in such a way really does no good.

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Monochromatic Oeuvre
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Re: T14/UF/ Vandy to South Florida

Postby Monochromatic Oeuvre » Sun Jun 30, 2013 3:06 pm

Lavitz wrote:
Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote:OP is not a splitter in the traditional sense. He has a median LSAT and a below 25th GPA. In his situation, a few points make all the difference. A 169 is pretty sure to be a rejection. A 171 and I might call him a near-guarantee. A 170? His chances are pretty good, but he shouldn't be absolutely counting on it.

We'll have to agree to disagree then. I'd call it a near-guarantee.


You don't think there's reason to maintain skepticism? Linked here is a 3.0/171 resident waitlisted six years ago. Here's a 3.53/173 waitlisted seven years ago. Yes, it's just two guys, and yes, it was a while ago. But seeing as the medians were pretty much the same, you would have thought these guys would probably be in. Point being, we're dealing with such a small sample size (n=5?) that any counterexample could reasonably blow a hole in the "guarantee" notion. I think if you assert something that seems counterintuitive (<25% GPA, 50% LSAT non-URM is a "near-guarantee"), you need good data to suggest so. I just don't think we have it. I could show you a bunch of other ED splitters at supposedly "splitter-friendly" schools who weren't accepted ED, and that's not including a dozen from CLS and NYU.

Point being, data certainly suggests his chances are good. But there are too few data points and too many counterexamples to believe it's a "near-guarantee."

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Monochromatic Oeuvre
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Re: T14/UF/ Vandy to South Florida

Postby Monochromatic Oeuvre » Sun Jun 30, 2013 3:12 pm

Lavitz wrote:
homie1515 wrote:Isn't a splitter someone who is above 1 median and below another? Wouldn't i fall under that categorization?

If you have a 170, you'd be at UVA's median and not above it. That's why Mono isn't classifying you as a splitter.

Also, the definition of a splitter varies. Some people say it's below 25th GPA and above 75th LSAT.


I tend to think most people call a splitter >75% LSAT and <25% GPA. But some use the other way, which I think is far too inclusive.

Either way, OP is at median LSAT, not above it, so he isn't a splitter if his score doesn't improve.

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Monochromatic Oeuvre
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Re: T14/UF/ Vandy to South Florida

Postby Monochromatic Oeuvre » Sun Jun 30, 2013 3:26 pm

lawyerwannabe wrote:Thanks for confirming that you don't have a source. Because what about the fact that many Duke students target markets and firms that are not in the realm of BigLaw? Or Duke's higher clerkship percentage placement?

I understand the point you are trying to make but generalizing in such a way really does no good.


By the passive-aggressive response to a pretty innocuous logical inference, I'm gonna take a wild guess and say you go to Duke.

There's absolutely no evidence Duke students are targeting non-Biglaw firm work at a higher clip than any other school. Matter of fact, the percentage of Duke grads that went into <250 firms is 3.9%. THAT IS THE ABSOLUTE LOWEST PERCENTAGE IN THE COUNTRY. So no, Duke students are not targeting SmallLaw or MidLaw, unless they're doing a really bad job at it.

Duke's higher clerkship placement is already included in the ATL metric, and is thus not what I'm referring to when I mention non-Biglaw self-selection. All evidence suggests Duke students (like Penn students) are selecting into Biglaw at a higher rate, or otherwise had abnormally high Biglaw+FedClerk figures as a result of statistical variance. Regardless of what's going on, the point remains the same--Duke, UVA and Penn do not perform better on outcome-based metrics than do CLS and NYU, which are punished in the rankings for being relatively light on judges and SCOTUS clerkships compared to other schools (students target them at a lower rate), and for being in Manhattan, where COL is naturally more expensive. That does not make sticker at UVA, Penn and Duke better than sticker at CLS or NYU.

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Lavitz
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Re: T14/UF/ Vandy to South Florida

Postby Lavitz » Sun Jun 30, 2013 3:37 pm

Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote:You don't think there's reason to maintain skepticism? Linked here is a 3.0/171 resident waitlisted six years ago. Here's a 3.53/173 waitlisted seven years ago. Yes, it's just two guys, and yes, it was a while ago. But seeing as the medians were pretty much the same, you would have thought these guys would probably be in. Point being, we're dealing with such a small sample size (n=5?) that any counterexample could reasonably blow a hole in the "guarantee" notion. I think if you assert something that seems counterintuitive (<25% GPA, 50% LSAT non-URM is a "near-guarantee"), you need good data to suggest so. I just don't think we have it. I could show you a bunch of other ED splitters at supposedly "splitter-friendly" schools who weren't accepted ED, and that's not including a dozen from CLS and NYU.

Point being, data certainly suggests his chances are good. But there are too few data points and too many counterexamples to believe it's a "near-guarantee."

I'm not sure why you're making a big deal out of my definition of "near-guarantee." You called 3.83+/176+ a "near-guarantee" at Harvard in the other thread, when LSN shows 91%. I don't dispute that because I think that's a high enough percentage to say that, even though I'm one of the counterexamples.

Image

Examples from other schools are completely irrelevant to UVA's admissions practices. The counterexamples you found are from 7 years ago, before UVA started gaming the rankings. The dean of admissions was different. A lot has changed in 7 years. Of course I wish I had more datapoints. But when it's 15/15, even if OP gets rejected, that's 15/16 or 93.75%. And with applications trending down, all signs point to UVA being more lenient--not less.

No, I don't think it's a complete guarantee. But I do think the data supports a 3.3/170 having an extremely good chance. I'm estimating like 80%. So I personally would call it a "near-guarantee." That's the way I would use the term.

"15 datapoints in the last 4 cycles all getting in? Yeah, not a guarantee, but very good chance. Near-guarantee."

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Re: T14/UF/ Vandy to South Florida

Postby shifty_eyed » Sun Jun 30, 2013 3:42 pm

Lavitz wrote:
Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote:You don't think there's reason to maintain skepticism? Linked here is a 3.0/171 resident waitlisted six years ago. Here's a 3.53/173 waitlisted seven years ago. Yes, it's just two guys, and yes, it was a while ago. But seeing as the medians were pretty much the same, you would have thought these guys would probably be in. Point being, we're dealing with such a small sample size (n=5?) that any counterexample could reasonably blow a hole in the "guarantee" notion. I think if you assert something that seems counterintuitive (<25% GPA, 50% LSAT non-URM is a "near-guarantee"), you need good data to suggest so. I just don't think we have it. I could show you a bunch of other ED splitters at supposedly "splitter-friendly" schools who weren't accepted ED, and that's not including a dozen from CLS and NYU.

Point being, data certainly suggests his chances are good. But there are too few data points and too many counterexamples to believe it's a "near-guarantee."

I'm not sure why you're making a big deal out of my definition of "near-guarantee." You called 3.83+/176+ a "near-guarantee" at Harvard in the other thread, when LSN shows 91%. I don't dispute that because I think that's a high enough percentage to say that, even though I'm one of the counterexamples.

Image

Examples from other schools are completely irrelevant to UVA's admissions practices. The counterexamples you found are from 7 years ago, before UVA started gaming the rankings. The dean of admissions was different. A lot has changed in 7 years. Of course I wish I had more datapoints. But when it's 15/15, even if OP gets rejected, that's 15/16 or 93.75%. And with applications trending down, all signs point to UVA being more lenient--not less.

No, I don't think it's a complete guarantee. But I do think the data supports a 3.3/170 having an extremely good chance. I'm estimating like 80%. So I personally would call it a "near-guarantee." That's the way I would use the term.

"15 datapoints in the last 4 cycles all getting in? Yeah, not a guarantee, but very good chance. Near-guarantee."


Very well said. MO, you don't even have any data to back up your pedantic argument.

OP, only ED UVA if you are comfortable paying sticker there. UVA ED is your best chance of a T10 acceptance. You will probably get $60k from Vanderbilt. If you can raise your LSAT 1 point to be above their 75th percentile, you will get $75k. This is assuming their merit scholarship offers and percentiles stay the same after this cycle. They should only get better.

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Re: T14/UF/ Vandy to South Florida

Postby untar614 » Sun Jun 30, 2013 3:53 pm

Plus, I'd say the clerkship numbers aren't large enough to play a significant factor, unless one school had a particularly high % of SCOTUS clerks (which I doubt, though if anyone can find an easy-to-read source of the raw data, I'd be interested), since the yare all within 5% points of each other. If anything, I've heard lots of CLS students self-select out of clerkships as many of the target firms are largely transactional, for which clerkships confer less benefit, though that may be pretty speculative as well. Either way, it shouldn't matter as biglaw and federal clerkships are grouped together for "quality jobs" purposes (I believe, please correct me if I'm wrong). So I can understand Penn's higher ranking since firm prestige is discounted, and they did better on raw biglaw+clerkship numbers. But CLS was 8-10% higher in that metric than UVA and Duke, so it can only be due to 2 things:

1) The % active judges and scotus clerks number. I'm fairly certain these are such a big part of the rankings solely to ensure Yale would be #1 and Harvard and Stanford right behind. For everyone else, simply having 1 scotus clerk, vs others having 0, could throw things off, since they make up a decent chunk of potential points. I'm not sure how the judges numbers are computed, but wouldn't be surprised if there were similar issues.

2) The cost. Yes, we know it costs more to live in NYC than college towns. The reasons as to why this inclusion is really stupid have been detailed many times before, though I can repeat it if necessary.


..but back to the OP, depending on what score he comes back with, opting to either ED Penn or UVA may be the best bet for a starting move, so OP, I'd recommend you think about which one you'd prefer of the 2, given their markets, and if you'd be willing to sign on for sticker to go to one of them rather than wait out other options (though significant money at another T14 probably isn't too likely). Have we brought up Duke in this discussion? Do they just offer little-to-no benefit to ED'ing?

eta: and I'm not even touching this "near guarantee" argument as it seems silly and pointless. the numbers are what they are. assigning some generic label to percentages when we have the raw numbers accomplishes nothing.

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Monochromatic Oeuvre
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Re: T14/UF/ Vandy to South Florida

Postby Monochromatic Oeuvre » Sun Jun 30, 2013 3:56 pm

15 data points is not the reliable indicator, as we know being above-median provides a huge boost compared to being at median. Even the 171s are not reliable indicators, to say nothing of the 175s. The better indicator is the six 170 splitters from the last five years (when UVA really started to game the medians hard). So yes, that's good news for OP's chances. Still a really small data set on which to base a guarantee.

But it sounds to me like we're arguing over either semantics or pretty insignificant differences. My estimate of OP's acceptance chances is pretty close to yours--about 75%. I would call that good, but not a "near guarantee", whereas I would be willing to apply the term to the 91% Harvard figure. I guess it doesn't really matter what exactly the term means, so I don't really have a problem with what you're positing.

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Re: T14/UF/ Vandy to South Florida

Postby Lavitz » Sun Jun 30, 2013 4:00 pm

Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote:But it sounds to me like we're arguing over either semantics or pretty insignificant differences.

That's why I said we should agree to disagree. 8)

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Re: T14/UF/ Vandy to South Florida

Postby Monochromatic Oeuvre » Sun Jun 30, 2013 4:12 pm

untar614 wrote:Plus, I'd say the clerkship numbers aren't large enough to play a significant factor, unless one school had a particularly high % of SCOTUS clerks (which I doubt, though if anyone can find an easy-to-read source of the raw data, I'd be interested)


Data from 2000-2010 here. If that's the metric used, then the University of Kansas outperformed Cornell. But the sample size is so small, and the notion so insignificant to the average law student, that it's really not worth bothering with.

But yeah, it's probably a throw-in because if you didn't include that, then Penn has a higher Biglaw+FedClerk than Yale, and has a higher employment figure, and has a lower cost, and subsequently would outrank Yale. And then the metric loses credibility because even prospective students who don't know anything could tell you Yale outperforms Penn, all else equal, in any imaginable scenario. But hey, it's okay to shit on CLS and NYU when you're devising a crappy metric, because fuck them, even if they'd outperform Penn and Duke anywhere too. You can't make an indicator like that without accounting for self-selection, or you start to develop a model that runs completely counter to what your intuition and past experience would tell you. Also, n.b. that the metric accounts for cost but, of course, does not account for the lack of merit aid at HYS, which raises the average cost per student there probably higher than CLS and NYU.

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Re: T14/UF/ Vandy to South Florida

Postby homie1515 » Sun Jun 30, 2013 4:17 pm

untar614 wrote:Plus, I'd say the clerkship numbers aren't large enough to play a significant factor, unless one school had a particularly high % of SCOTUS clerks (which I doubt, though if anyone can find an easy-to-read source of the raw data, I'd be interested), since the yare all within 5% points of each other. If anything, I've heard lots of CLS students self-select out of clerkships as many of the target firms are largely transactional, for which clerkships confer less benefit, though that may be pretty speculative as well. Either way, it shouldn't matter as biglaw and federal clerkships are grouped together for "quality jobs" purposes (I believe, please correct me if I'm wrong). So I can understand Penn's higher ranking since firm prestige is discounted, and they did better on raw biglaw+clerkship numbers. But CLS was 8-10% higher in that metric than UVA and Duke, so it can only be due to 2 things:

1) The % active judges and scotus clerks number. I'm fairly certain these are such a big part of the rankings solely to ensure Yale would be #1 and Harvard and Stanford right behind. For everyone else, simply having 1 scotus clerk, vs others having 0, could throw things off, since they make up a decent chunk of potential points. I'm not sure how the judges numbers are computed, but wouldn't be surprised if there were similar issues.

2) The cost. Yes, we know it costs more to live in NYC than college towns. The reasons as to why this inclusion is really stupid have been detailed many times before, though I can repeat it if necessary.


..but back to the OP, depending on what score he comes back with, opting to either ED Penn or UVA may be the best bet for a starting move, so OP, I'd recommend you think about which one you'd prefer of the 2, given their markets, and if you'd be willing to sign on for sticker to go to one of them rather than wait out other options (though significant money at another T14 probably isn't too likely). Have we brought up Duke in this discussion? Do they just offer little-to-no benefit to ED'ing?

eta: and I'm not even touching this "near guarantee" argument as it seems silly and pointless. the numbers are what they are. assigning some generic label to percentages when we have the raw numbers accomplishes nothing.



I was thinking that if my score does not improve I would ED to Penn for their round 1 while submitting RD apps to the rest of the t14, then switching my RD to ED for UVA if Penn falls through.

However, I really like the idea of getting to know if I'm in within 15 days, and from the looks of it online, UVA places more in the firms I'm interested in than Penn does. Also, UVA places in DC more than Penn does and DC is a close second place location for me.

^ Should that matter to me?

I never really had the college life atmosphere, so the lifestyle of UVA is tempting to me, however Penn's big law stats are very appealing. Yet UVA's 50% big law is comforting as long as I'm above median I should have a shot at Miami big law, while getting about the top 1/3 leaves me pretty comfortable in any location I would want to work in.

I wouldn't mind taking on the debt, so either one at sticker is OK with me.

What it comes down to is where would i rather be? I don't know. I like the water/the beach/ the warm sun, and i like the fact that UVA has attractive students (from what i hear) and they all party a lot and dont take school to seriously (on the outside that is). IDK much about Penn except that it is a wealthy northeastern school, that is surrounded by a bunch of other schools -- and that ivy prestige.

Any insight into these dilemas would be great.

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Re: T14/UF/ Vandy to South Florida

Postby Monochromatic Oeuvre » Sun Jun 30, 2013 4:34 pm

Side note: If there are 40k graduates for 40 SCOTUS clerkships per term, then the average law student has a 1 in 1000 chance of obtaining one. Per standard actuarial tables, the chance that a man in his mid-twenties dies in a given three-year period is about 1 in 250. Obviously the clerkships skew T14.

In the 2000s, 24 students from non-T25 schools got SCOTUS clerkships. I'd bet decent money more than 24 non-T25 students died during the decade. Think about that: Including as part of your rankings a position that the average non-T25 law student is less likely to obtain THAN HE IS TO DIE IN LAW SCHOOL. Clearly there's hyperbole involved here, but that's just an illustrative thing to show what a pointless inclusion it is.

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Re: T14/UF/ Vandy to South Florida

Postby untar614 » Sun Jun 30, 2013 4:35 pm

homie1515 wrote:
untar614 wrote:Plus, I'd say the clerkship numbers aren't large enough to play a significant factor, unless one school had a particularly high % of SCOTUS clerks (which I doubt, though if anyone can find an easy-to-read source of the raw data, I'd be interested), since the yare all within 5% points of each other. If anything, I've heard lots of CLS students self-select out of clerkships as many of the target firms are largely transactional, for which clerkships confer less benefit, though that may be pretty speculative as well. Either way, it shouldn't matter as biglaw and federal clerkships are grouped together for "quality jobs" purposes (I believe, please correct me if I'm wrong). So I can understand Penn's higher ranking since firm prestige is discounted, and they did better on raw biglaw+clerkship numbers. But CLS was 8-10% higher in that metric than UVA and Duke, so it can only be due to 2 things:

1) The % active judges and scotus clerks number. I'm fairly certain these are such a big part of the rankings solely to ensure Yale would be #1 and Harvard and Stanford right behind. For everyone else, simply having 1 scotus clerk, vs others having 0, could throw things off, since they make up a decent chunk of potential points. I'm not sure how the judges numbers are computed, but wouldn't be surprised if there were similar issues.

2) The cost. Yes, we know it costs more to live in NYC than college towns. The reasons as to why this inclusion is really stupid have been detailed many times before, though I can repeat it if necessary.


..but back to the OP, depending on what score he comes back with, opting to either ED Penn or UVA may be the best bet for a starting move, so OP, I'd recommend you think about which one you'd prefer of the 2, given their markets, and if you'd be willing to sign on for sticker to go to one of them rather than wait out other options (though significant money at another T14 probably isn't too likely). Have we brought up Duke in this discussion? Do they just offer little-to-no benefit to ED'ing?

eta: and I'm not even touching this "near guarantee" argument as it seems silly and pointless. the numbers are what they are. assigning some generic label to percentages when we have the raw numbers accomplishes nothing.



I was thinking that if my score does not improve I would ED to Penn for their round 1 while submitting RD apps to the rest of the t14, then switching my RD to ED for UVA if Penn falls through.

However, I really like the idea of getting to know if I'm in within 15 days, and from the looks of it online, UVA places more in the firms I'm interested in than Penn does. Also, UVA places in DC more than Penn does and DC is a close second place location for me.

^ Should that matter to me?

I never really had the college life atmosphere, so the lifestyle of UVA is tempting to me, however Penn's big law stats are very appealing. Yet UVA's 50% big law is comforting as long as I'm above median I should have a shot at Miami big law, while getting about the top 1/3 leaves me pretty comfortable in any location I would want to work in.

I wouldn't mind taking on the debt, so either one at sticker is OK with me.

What it comes down to is where would i rather be? I don't know. I like the water/the beach/ the warm sun, and i like the fact that UVA has attractive students (from what i hear) and they all party a lot and dont take school to seriously (on the outside that is). IDK much about Penn except that it is a wealthy northeastern school, that is surrounded by a bunch of other schools -- and that ivy prestige.

Any insight into these dilemas would be great.


It seems for most purposes you would prefer UVA to Penn. At 62% biglaw + federal clerkship, UVA is certainly good. Penn at 77% is even better. But keep in mind that for Penn, it's a much greater % NY, and you will definitely have to target NY firms to make use of that %. Keep in mind that, either way, if you strike out at sticker, that's going to really suck. If the thought of working in NYC is unbearable and you can live with UVA's lower placement, ED UVA on the first day, and you will know very early on, and then be able to make another move still very early. If you'd prefer Penn's better placement numbers, knowing there's a decent chance you'd have to work in NYC for a while, start with Penn.




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