Biglaw's small future

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Docreviewsux
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Biglaw's small future

Postby Docreviewsux » Thu May 02, 2013 7:47 pm

http://www.businessweek.com/printer/art ... all-future

In short, even the winners are losers.

Of course, worthless law profs get paid up front regardless of whether the 0L gets Cravath or joins me in doc review.

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bearsfan23
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Re: Biglaw's small future

Postby bearsfan23 » Thu May 02, 2013 8:01 pm

Do you enjoy doc review? Is it fun?

Docreviewsux
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Re: Biglaw's small future

Postby Docreviewsux » Thu May 02, 2013 8:32 pm

bearsfan23 wrote:Do you enjoy doc review? Is it fun?


Better than straight unemployment.

Good jobs, I can pull over 2k per week. But, there is no future here. Most of the time, I get 25/hr and no OT. I pull in about 550 on unemployment per week when laid off.

I still don't make anywhere near as much as I did when I was a SA during 2l summer. And, we have other Non-URM grads here too from really good schools like Northwestern.

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Gunnar Stahl
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Re: Biglaw's small future

Postby Gunnar Stahl » Thu May 02, 2013 8:37 pm

What school did you go to?

09042014
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Re: Biglaw's small future

Postby 09042014 » Thu May 02, 2013 8:46 pm

Pretty interesting article.

empyreanrrv
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Re: Biglaw's small future

Postby empyreanrrv » Thu May 02, 2013 9:13 pm

Very cool that the data from the graph was pulled from LST.

NYstate
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Re: Biglaw's small future

Postby NYstate » Thu May 02, 2013 9:22 pm

This is something I had never considered:
This is an odd goal because, according to Altman Weil, a leading management consultancy specializing in law firms, “there are no economies of scale in private law practice.” Yes, you read that correctly: “Larger firms almost always spend more per lawyer on staffing, occupancy, equipment, promotion, malpractice, and other nonpersonnel insurance coverages, office supplies, and other expenses than do smaller firms.”


Some things won’t change. For bet-the-company mergers, some CEOs still reflexively choose Cravath or Wachtell. Those firms and a few New York-based rivals (Sullivan & Cromwell; Davis Polk & Wardwell; Simpson Thacher & Bartlett) enjoy cover-your-ass appeal. “Yes, the deal went south on us,” management can tell an angry board of directors, “but we did hire Cravath.”

For practically everyone else in Big Law, the future looks chaotic. Client fee pressures will be matched by the cost overhang of the pre-recession go-go era. Young lawyers will increasingly struggle to establish a foothold. To protect their personal pocketbooks, firms are lengthening the path to partnership amid an oversupply of fresh labor. The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that during the decade ending in 2020, the U.S. economy will create 73,600 lawyer positions. Law schools are pumping out 25,000 graduates a year, suggesting an excess of 176,400 J.D.s no one really needs.

All of that adds up to a gloomy picture for newly minted lawyers, predicts William Henderson, a professor at Indiana University. In “From Big Law to Lean Law,” a paper he delivered last November at George Mason University, Henderson warned that an increasing proportion of young attorneys will get stuck working as non-partner-track “staff lawyers” or as employees of document-processing outsourcing firms.


The bolded part has been forecast for a while and seems to be happening but very slowly.

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homestyle28
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Re: Biglaw's small future

Postby homestyle28 » Thu May 02, 2013 9:23 pm

What the hell? The legal market is changing and an old model is struggling? Why is this the first I'm hearing about it? Looks like I'll have to discharge my student debt in bankruptcy.

NYstate
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Re: Biglaw's small future

Postby NYstate » Thu May 02, 2013 10:19 pm

homestyle28 wrote:What the hell? The legal market is changing and an old model is struggling? Why is this the first I'm hearing about it? Looks like I'll have to discharge my student debt in bankruptcy.


Is that a quote from a former Dewey almost SA ? Too bad student loans can't be discharged in bankruptcy. But last I heard, they all found other jobs, so they won't need to worry about it.

NYstate
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Re: Biglaw's small future

Postby NYstate » Thu May 02, 2013 11:41 pm

Wormfather wrote:
NYstate wrote:
homestyle28 wrote:What the hell? The legal market is changing and an old model is struggling? Why is this the first I'm hearing about it? Looks like I'll have to discharge my student debt in bankruptcy.


Is that a quote from a former Dewey almost SA ? Too bad student loans can't be discharged in bankruptcy. But last I heard, they all found other jobs, so they won't need to worry about it.


That's the joke.


The article mentions Dewey but mostly Howrey. Reading what the other poster wrote reminded me of the panic the Dewey SAs were feeling last year. Has it been a year already?

I admit that it wasn't funny. Don't joke about big firms collapsing. It is old news that everyone knows about already. No reason at all for anyone to be concerned about the big law hiring model for 3 years from now.

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jbagelboy
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Re: Biglaw's small future

Postby jbagelboy » Thu May 02, 2013 11:57 pm

Big firms are still hiring. This is old news. A few firms fell apart but the major players are in the game and they never stopped hiring, even in recession, they just kept the levels steady.

Dont go to a shitty school and expect to get a decent job or you'll end up with OP.

NYstate
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Re: Biglaw's small future

Postby NYstate » Fri May 03, 2013 12:27 am

jbagelboy wrote:Big firms are still hiring. This is old news. A few firms fell apart but the major players are in the game and they never stopped hiring, even in recession, they just kept the levels steady.

Dont go to a shitty school and expect to get a decent job or you'll end up with OP.


The firms that didn't stop hiring- deferred a lot of people and also fired many people. Don't oversell big law hiring during the recession. It is not a recession- proof industry.

The point is that the model that supported large entry level classes seems to be permanently broken. But no one really knows what will happen.

I'm really curious to see how it all shakes out. I can see firms going to more permanent associates. It isn't as if they can't find plenty of good applicants for those jobs.

froglee
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Re: Biglaw's small future

Postby froglee » Fri May 03, 2013 8:20 am

But again...bunch of people on TLS are going to say "this is old news"."going to law school is always I wanted to do.." wahh....wahhhhhhhh

NYstate
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Re: Biglaw's small future

Postby NYstate » Fri May 03, 2013 8:29 am

froglee wrote:But again...bunch of people on TLS are going to say "this is old news"."going to law school is always I wanted to do.." wahh....wahhhhhhhh


I don't think it is old news yet. Most people are calculating their shot at a big law job based on current patterns. Another major shift in hiring, following the shift from large class sizes to current class sizes, could happen. The few reports I've read about this trend predict more firms will be changing to hiring lower paid permanent associates, but firms seem to not be changing very fast.

20141023
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Re: Biglaw's small future

Postby 20141023 » Fri May 03, 2013 9:00 am

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Last edited by 20141023 on Mon Feb 16, 2015 12:21 am, edited 1 time in total.

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romothesavior
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Re: Biglaw's small future

Postby romothesavior » Fri May 03, 2013 10:51 am

froglee wrote:But again...bunch of people on TLS are going to say "this is old news"."going to law school is always I wanted to do.." wahh....wahhhhhhhh

And people like you will say things like "Go to Cardozo, law firm partners always hire from there" and "Go to Miami, you can see people at the beach from your biglaw office."

Jimbo_Jones
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Re: Biglaw's small future

Postby Jimbo_Jones » Fri May 03, 2013 12:33 pm

In January 2011, as the miserable state of the firm’s finances became evident, Ruyak conceded that Howrey had again missed its budgeted compensation, “with profits per partner falling to less than $550,000—or hundreds of thousands less than 2010 or 2009, and less than half of 2008,” Diamond recounted. Remaining partners “began leaving the firm in droves, and Howrey’s descent into dissolution was quick.”

Remaining partners “began leaving the firm in droves, and Howrey’s descent into dissolution was quick.”

began leaving the firm in droves

in droves

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jbagelboy
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Re: Biglaw's small future

Postby jbagelboy » Fri May 03, 2013 1:18 pm

NYstate wrote:
jbagelboy wrote:Big firms are still hiring. This is old news. A few firms fell apart but the major players are in the game and they never stopped hiring, even in recession, they just kept the levels steady.

Dont go to a shitty school and expect to get a decent job or you'll end up with OP.


The firms that didn't stop hiring- deferred a lot of people and also fired many people. Don't oversell big law hiring during the recession. It is not a recession- proof industry.

The point is that the model that supported large entry level classes seems to be permanently broken. But no one really knows what will happen.

I'm really curious to see how it all shakes out. I can see firms going to more permanent associates. It isn't as if they can't find plenty of good applicants for those jobs.


Yes, deferrals did occur, but for two hiring seasons several years ago. also we aren't in recession anymore. Did you see april's job report? +167,000 INCLUDING the -30,000 gov jobs from sequestration. I dispute the notion that the entire entry level hiring model is broken for large firms when the same types of top candidates are getting the same types of top jobs at the same top salaries (albeit not holding with 5 yrs of inflation)

on that note, I agree if your goal is to get a job in government after LS, you're fucked now more than ever. and if you don't go to a tier 1 school & you get bottom half of your class, you're also fucked.

Myself
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Postby Myself » Fri May 03, 2013 1:43 pm

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Last edited by Myself on Sun Nov 24, 2013 11:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.

PRgradBYU
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Re: Biglaw's small future

Postby PRgradBYU » Fri May 03, 2013 2:02 pm

Ghost93 wrote:What school did you go to?

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Big(Bird)Law
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Re: Biglaw's small future

Postby Big(Bird)Law » Fri May 03, 2013 2:39 pm

PRgradBYU wrote:
Ghost93 wrote:What school did you go to?

TheNextAmendment
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Re: Biglaw's small future

Postby TheNextAmendment » Fri May 03, 2013 2:51 pm

Big(Bird)Law wrote:
PRgradBYU wrote:
Ghost93 wrote:What school did you go to?

20141023
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Re: Biglaw's small future

Postby 20141023 » Fri May 03, 2013 2:56 pm

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Last edited by 20141023 on Mon Feb 16, 2015 12:20 am, edited 1 time in total.

dixiecupdrinking
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Re: Biglaw's small future

Postby dixiecupdrinking » Fri May 03, 2013 3:10 pm

TheNextAmendment wrote:
Big(Bird)Law wrote:
PRgradBYU wrote:
Ghost93 wrote:What school did you go to?
What difference does this make?

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romothesavior
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Re: Biglaw's small future

Postby romothesavior » Fri May 03, 2013 3:13 pm

Honestly, where he went might not tell you much, and I'm not sure why it matters all that much. I feel like you're all just waiting for him to say "NYLS" or something so you can all smirk and say, "Ha! Well what did you expect?" and then silently reassure yourself that this won't happen to you. But if you get out there in a bad economy, even from a good school, you could find yourself doing doc review. This guy may have graduated from Fordham or NYU or Cornell, gotten laid off a year in for no real reason by some scumbag law firm, and had no other choice but to pick up a job in doc review. areyouinsane? talked about how there were doc reviewers from all kinds of schools, even elite schools.




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