Remember when sticker at T10 seemed like a good idea? Forum

[Tom Joad]

There is actually data. It's labeled salary data and lawyers make, at a median (so 50% at least) = 112k - http://www.bls.gov/ooh/legal/lawyers.htm

Not the best stat since a huge amount of lawyers leave the field.

[sinfiery]

Not the best stat.

Just part of the life of a prospective student.Every stat we have access to is full of what-ifs except the cost of attendance.

[84651846190]

I don't get the "if you're paying sticker and you're bottom third after 1L->drop out after 1L" thing. I mean, if you are last in your class and you just don't get it, it may be a good move. But what if you're PI-driven and your T10 has a good LRAP?

Another question, how much would TLS hivemind say is OK for T10? $150K COA? $200K COA? I can attend MVB for $210K COA per GULC's calculator. I'd be taking out loans for everything but I would probably be able to keep my debt at graduation to around $175K or so.

If you're cool with the possibility of never having any money (unless you get it through marriage/other means) during the vast majority of your adult life, fine go ahead with it. But if you're cool with being poor, I can think of a lot more pleasant things to do with your life than being a lawyer. Even PI work can be frustrating and stressful, although certainly rewarding.

[84651846190]

Firms care about a name on a resume because it represents an assumed quality of candidate. If that quality of candidate falls, they will care. I think. I may be wrong. Maybe they actually just care about the name and will be satisfied with anybody as long as they can tout they graduated from X university.

You're wrong. 10 years ago, the "quality" of candidate in GPA/LSAT terms was much lower. People who got into top schools with low 160s LSATs aren't going to be squeamish about hiring similarly credentialed people.

This. Law students these days who get biglaw don't realize how much more "qualified" they are, at least in terms of work ethic and smarts, than their more senior biglaw counterparts.

[84651846190]

What if you make six figures (or close to it) the rest of your working life? Of course, that's not a guaranteed outcome, but wouldn't that be a good financial situation? Sticker at any school is a risk, but you don't have to make partner for the investment to be worth it.

Yeah that actually makes sense.

Is that a common outcome? To leave biglaw to make 100k in a smaller firm? I guess I was starting to get the idea that the majority of people leave biglaw to wind up ambulance chasing for 50k. Is that a dramatization?

I can at least confirm this: the vast majority of people who enter biglaw do not become biglaw partners.

[Sheffield]

Given that less than 5% of employees earn $100K a year, a successful T14 outcome is still a good idea. Sorry that it costs, but hey, if you started a business tomorrow it would likely cost upwards of $150K to get it off the ground. Where does one get a $150K loan to start a business, sometimes nowhere. Keep in mind that $172K today is what $100K was in ’90. To me, $172K for the chance to be in the top 95% of earners still sounds like a pretty good deal. But yes, LS like biz, have their risks.

[84651846190]

Given that less than 5% of employees earn $100K a year, a successful T14 outcome is still a good idea. Sorry that it costs, but hey, if you started a business tomorrow it would likely cost upwards of $150K to get it off the ground. Where does one get a $150K loan to start a business, sometimes nowhere. Keep in mind that $172K today is what $100K was in ’90. To me, $172K for the chance to be in the top 95% of earners still sounds like a pretty good deal. But yes, LS like biz, have their risks.

You're neglecting to mention the fact that legal work is the most god awful, shitty work fathomable.

[sinfiery]

I can at least confirm this: the vast majority of people who enter biglaw do not become biglaw partners.

So what do they do once they leave biglaw?

[Sheffield]

Given that less than 5% of employees earn $100K a year, a successful T14 outcome is still a good idea. Sorry that it costs, but hey, if you started a business tomorrow it would likely cost upwards of $150K to get it off the ground. Where does one get a $150K loan to start a business, sometimes nowhere. Keep in mind that $172K today is what $100K was in ’90. To me, $172K for the chance to be in the top 95% of earners still sounds like a pretty good deal. But yes, LS like biz, have their risks.

You're neglecting to mention the fact that legal work is the most god awful, shitty work fathomable.

The key word there is WORK. Even Michael Jackson had to put on a sequin shirt every night and go out and sing Billy Jean (probably not as bad as singing Hound Dog every night in Vegas). When you find that really cool high paying no deadline stay in bed late job, drop us a line.

[NYstate]

I can at least confirm this: the vast majority of people who enter biglaw do not become biglaw partners.

So what do they do once they leave biglaw?

Lol. What difference does it make since you have that wonderful
BLS stat that shows median salary for 2010 for all lawyers in the nation is over $100,000. I know you realize this does nothing to prove that aT13 grad will make $100,000 a year for life. That was the question asked earlier.
For more explanation of that BLS salary estimate look here:
http://bls.gov/oes/current/oes231011.htm
It seems that self- employed lawyers are not included .

As long as you are on BLS data, you might consider all the projections they have relating to the huge oversupply of lawyers.

http://insidethelawschoolscam.blogspot. ... s.html?m=1

I know there is a tendency to assume that a T13 degree will protect a person from unemployment or underemployment, but we know that isn't true.

[NYstate]

Given that less than 5% of employees earn $100K a year, a successful T14 outcome is still a good idea. Sorry that it costs, but hey, if you started a business tomorrow it would likely cost upwards of $150K to get it off the ground. Where does one get a $150K loan to start a business, sometimes nowhere. Keep in mind that $172K today is what $100K was in ’90. To me, $172K for the chance to be in the top 95% of earners still sounds like a pretty good deal. But yes, LS like biz, have their risks.

You're neglecting to mention the fact that legal work is the most god awful, shitty work fathomable.

The key word there is WORK. Even Michael Jackson had to put on a sequin shirt every night and go out and sing Billy Jean (probably not as bad as singing Hound Dog every night in Vegas). When you find that really cool high paying no deadline stay in bed late job, drop us a line.

Just wanted to point out that this attitude and belief is exactly why I think big law could cut salaries and still have more than enough grads to choose from. Big law is probably overpaying by at least $15,000. Not that a decrease is likely, but I wouldn't expect an increase soon.

[Sheffield]

Just wanted to point out that this attitude and belief is exactly why I think big law could cut salaries and still have more than enough grads to choose from. Big law is probably overpaying by at least $15,000. Not that a decrease is likely, but I wouldn't expect an increase soon.

You are not that good, so I cut your pay $15K and you are okay with that. I just saved $15K. Or.... I cut your pay and (in time) you leave for another firm and the person that replaces you isn't so hot and I have just lost real $$.

[NYstate]

Just wanted to point out that this attitude and belief is exactly why I think big law could cut salaries and still have more than enough grads to choose from. Big law is probably overpaying by at least $15,000. Not that a decrease is likely, but I wouldn't expect an increase soon.

You are not that good, so I cut your pay $15K and you are okay with that. I just saved $15K. Or.... I cut your pay and (in time) you leave for another firm and the person that replaces you isn't so hot and I have just lost real $$.

I'm just saying that there is really no pressure to raise salaries. And, honestly, this isn't at all how firm hiring works. Firms only lose money when partners leave with clients. Associates are largely fungable. And pay is lockstep.
Also, I posted a link in this thread from last year's NALP study showing that starting salaries have dropped. ( by decreasing salaries I mean starting salaries, not giving everyone a pay cut- though not giving bonuses is the same thing as cutting pay.)

[toothbrush]

Two questions:

1) When LST puts total COA at ~280k (CLS) where does that number come from? If you do 50k tuition yr1 + 60k yr 2 + 70k yr 3 (this is a huge exaggerated inflation / raise) then do 20+25+25 for COL (figuring you get smarter) I only hit 250k. Where is the rest of the cost ? That's not loan interest is it ?


2) Where does "t13" come from. People are actually throwing it around as if that's a thing. t14 maybe.. but t13? hell, if gulc was always 14th i'd maybe see what t13 is .. but didn't cornell and gulc just switch this this? the fuck ?

[NYstate]

Two questions:

1) When LST puts total COA at ~280k (CLS) where does that number come from? If you do 50k tuition yr1 + 60k yr 2 + 70k yr 3 (this is a huge exaggerated inflation / raise) then do 20+25+25 for COL (figuring you get smarter) I only hit 250k. Where is the rest of the cost ? That's not loan interest is it ?

They explain their calculations here:
http://www.lawschooltransparency.com/re ... nted-Cost/

Tuition for this year is 57,750 if you include the 2,000 for medical insurance.

http://web.law.columbia.edu/admissions/ ... ancial-aid

[cahwc12]

I've been on TLS for four years now and I would say the biggest difference between then and now is that I no longer think sticker is ever a good idea save for maaaaybe HYS. There definitely has been a shift in the thinking. Here's why I've shifted:

1. The big reason: Even if you "win" and get big law, say a $120-145k job, and make $2,000-3,000 monthly payments during your stint in biglaw and put your bonuses towards your debt, you wouldn't get to under $100k in debt for probably 5-6 years. What if you hate it? What if you're out in 3-4 years? What if you're Lathamed in year 1? You're toast. Even if you make it 3-4 years, you've still got maybe ~$150,000 in debt even if you were fairly smart. Now you've got to pay that off on a smaller salary, which may mean a new repayment option prolonging your repayment and making your degree even more expensive. Again, this is if you're fairly lucky and do land biglaw.

2. A lesser but still important reason: Sticker gets worse every year thanks to tuition increases and occasionally interest rate increases, and has gotten much worse in just a few short years due to the eradication of subsidized loans. Maybe 200k debt at graduation was worth it when it was subsidized and at low rates. But at some point, it just becomes too much. 250k? 270k? 300k?

I agree with this. When I was initially considering law school I didn't think twice about $250k debt for a school like Cornell because hey, the data said these schools were money. Take a look through some TLS school profiles and you can still see artifacts of the line of thinking that the forum had in 2006 right before the shit hit the fan. It's comedy gold now, but this was what good prospective applicant information looked like then:

http://www.top-law-schools.com/cornell-law-school.html

Quick Reference

U.S. News Ranking: 13th
LSAT scores at 25th and 75th percentiles: 166, 168
GPA at 25th and 75th percentiles: 3.24, 3.84
Application Deadline: 2/1
Application fee: $75
Entering class size: 193
Yearly Tuition: $48,950
Bar passage rate in New York: 98%
Percent of graduates employed 9 months after graduation: 98%
Median private sector salary: $145,000

(Compare that to what we have now.)

Looking at stats like this, it's no wonder sticker was foregone as a good investment for so long. There wasn't any data to tell you it was a bad deal other than the cost, and people in law school didn't really post on the forum since it was just geared toward LSAT prep and law school admissions. So for all intents and purposes, the board had complete overturn every cycle except for stragglers like me who never applied.

Debt is only a number until you have to deal with it yourself. I took on about $10k for a graduate program I didn't finish, and since then the idea of taking on 20-30x that amount for law school scares me shitless, and especially now in the last few years that employment data has become more transparent, and that I know a lot of schools are probably still over-embellishing on their data and it still looks that bad, I haven't been able to pull the trigger with what are essentially respectable numbers.

And then how about the realization that biglaw itself wasn't this mythical land of 40 virgins and high-rise window offices overlooking lower manhattan where all you do is count your money for 50-60 hours a week in between being a principal contributor to the next big class action lawsuit? This is how disillusioned we become when people with high critical thinking faculties are bombarded with bad data, and no one is around to call us out on our circlejerkery.

TLS really went downhill for a while but I think the mods are doing well to bring it back to a respectable level and armed with websites like LST now, it's easy to say with hindsight how stupid we were for believing sticker at most of these schools was ever a good idea--because it's not that it used to be good but isn't now, it's that we used to base our ideas of worth on faulty data and no one was around to tell us otherwise.

[romothesavior]

1) When LST puts total COA at ~280k (CLS) where does that number come from? If you do 50k tuition yr1 + 60k yr 2 + 70k yr 3 (this is a huge exaggerated inflation / raise) then do 20+25+25 for COL (figuring you get smarter) I only hit 250k. Where is the rest of the cost ? That's not loan interest is it ?

You're getting hit with around 7% interest each year.

It is interesting that some of the 2L/3L T14 sticker folks are still on board with the idea. I mean, it's not hard to see why some people justify it; the job prospects are just so much better at a T14. I'll be interested to see what they think in a few years when some of them have left biglaw, some of them hate their jobs, etc. and they still have six-figures of debt. And I don't mean that to be snarky, though I know it sounds that way. I'm legitimately curious. Seeing the evolution of a law school class on TLS has been pretty cool, and I'll be interested to know where people are and what they're thinking in a few years.

[haus]

Biglaw salaries have also been the same for 6-7 years, despite rising inflation/tuition.

Compared to the median incomes of families which have gone nowhere for 23 years, it is hard to find many people to shed tears for a 7 year stretch of stagnation.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012 ... .html?_r=0

[bk1]

1) When LST puts total COA at ~280k (CLS) where does that number come from? If you do 50k tuition yr1 + 60k yr 2 + 70k yr 3 (this is a huge exaggerated inflation / raise) then do 20+25+25 for COL (figuring you get smarter) I only hit 250k. Where is the rest of the cost ? That's not loan interest is it ?

You're getting hit with around 7% interest each year.

It is interesting that some of the 2L/3L T14 sticker folks are still on board with the idea. I mean, it's not hard to see why some people justify it; the job prospects are just so much better at a T14. I'll be interested to see what they think in a few years when some of them have left biglaw, some of them hate their jobs, etc. and they still have six-figures of debt. And I don't mean that to be snarky, though I know it sounds that way. I'm legitimately curious. Seeing the evolution of a law school class on TLS has been pretty cool, and I'll be interested to know where people are and what they're thinking in a few years.

Yup. I hope I still think it's worth it a few years out, but recognize that I could easily change my tune.

[romothesavior]

Biglaw salaries have also been the same for 6-7 years, despite rising inflation/tuition.

Compared to the median incomes of families which have gone nowhere for 23 years, it is hard to find many people to shed tears for a 7 year stretch of stagnation.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012 ... .html?_r=0

I don't think anyone's asking for pity, but certainly the fact that tuition has gone up big time in the past 6-7 years while salaries have remained stagnant is relevant to the equation of whether one should pay sticker, no? Especially since loan interest rates have also gone up over the past decade and subsidized loans have been nixed.

Sticker for law school looks substantially worse now than it did 6-7 years ago, and not just because of lower job prospects. A ton of factors have made it a much worse decision that have nothing to do with the ITE Monster.

[onionz]

Biglaw salaries have also been the same for 6-7 years, despite rising inflation/tuition.

Compared to the median incomes of families which have gone nowhere for 23 years, it is hard to find many people to shed tears for a 7 year stretch of stagnation.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012 ... .html?_r=0

That is adjusted for inflation, exactly not the right comparison..

[haus]

I don't think anyone's asking for pity, but certainly the fact that tuition has gone up big time in the past 6-7 years while salaries have remained stagnant is relevant to the equation of whether one should pay sticker, no? Especially since loan interest rates have also gone up over the past decade and subsidized loans have been nixed.

Sticker for law school looks substantially worse now than it did 6-7 years ago, and not just because of lower job prospects. A ton of factors have made it a much worse decision that have nothing to do with the ITE Monster.

Yes, tuition and interest rates are both up, but the common behavior on this board is to pretend that any education/career choice other than law somehow does not face challenges. Even for those who have opted to avoid graduate programs, or perhaps even college, are seeing long term wage stagnation, increased cost.

[haus]

That is adjusted for inflation, exactly not the right comparison..

They, we see a notable decrease for the last several years on this chart, the point is that the challenges facing prospective lawyers are not all that different from the set of challenges facing everyone.

[TripTrip]

I don't think anyone's asking for pity, but certainly the fact that tuition has gone up big time in the past 6-7 years while salaries have remained stagnant is relevant to the equation of whether one should pay sticker, no? Especially since loan interest rates have also gone up over the past decade and subsidized loans have been nixed.

Sticker for law school looks substantially worse now than it did 6-7 years ago, and not just because of lower job prospects. A ton of factors have made it a much worse decision that have nothing to do with the ITE Monster.

Yes, tuition and interest rates are both up, but the common behavior on this board is to pretend that any education/career choice other than law somehow does not face challenges. Even for those who have opted to avoid graduate programs, or perhaps even college, are seeing long term wage stagnation, increased cost.

Yes, I think it is in error to assume everyone going to a T14 has a significant opportunity cost. Since you don't need an Ivy education to get into the T14, many applicants would have few alternatives otherwise.

As a criminal justice major from a public school dedicated to law enforcement, if I was to try to get a job with my UG I would be looking at jobs with arguably more competition than the NY legal market. The qualifications may be vastly different, but the chances of landing a job are about the same as from a T14 school. The hours would be just as shitty, and the salary would be around $30,000 per year. Even if I were to take on $300,000 of debt and that cost me $3,000 per month in debt service forever, I would only need to make $66,000+COL increase for wherever I end up in order to make that legal degree a sound financial investment.

[romothesavior]

That is adjusted for inflation, exactly not the right comparison..

They, we see a notable decrease for the last several years on this chart, the point is that the challenges facing prospective lawyers are not all that different from the set of challenges facing everyone.

Except for the hundreds of thousands of dollars of non-dischargeable student loan debt that we're talking about here.

I don't think TLS fails to recognize the plight of other industries and professions. The average American has been getting screwed for years.