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dr123
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Re: Thinking about not going - TCR?

Postby dr123 » Sat Mar 09, 2013 4:58 pm

Real Madrid wrote:Some of you people are so damn depressing. Yeah, the legal market sucks. We all know that. But some people on this board act as if we all have six-figure jobs on the table outside of law school when in reality we're looking at 35k jobs as insurance adjusters? Yes, the debt is scary, and yes, a good bit of self-reflection is necessary before entering into law school, but this "HYS with full aid or go become a used car salesman" shit is getting absurd. If you wanna get ahead in life, you're gonna have to take some risks.


As someone who decided against LS, I can tell you there are other ways to get into desirable careers bro

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romothesavior
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Re: Thinking about not going - TCR?

Postby romothesavior » Sat Mar 09, 2013 5:32 pm

Real Madrid wrote:Some of you people are so damn depressing. Yeah, the legal market sucks. We all know that. But some people on this board act as if we all have six-figure jobs on the table outside of law school when in reality we're looking at 35k jobs as insurance adjusters? Yes, the debt is scary, and yes, a good bit of self-reflection is necessary before entering into law school, but this "HYS with full aid or go become a used car salesman" shit is getting absurd. If you wanna get ahead in life, you're gonna have to take some risks.

Keep mowing down them straw men brah.

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Dr. Dre
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Re: Thinking about not going - TCR?

Postby Dr. Dre » Sat Mar 09, 2013 5:34 pm

Real Madrid wrote:Some of you people are so damn depressing. Yeah, the legal market sucks. We all know that. But some people on this board act as if we all have six-figure jobs on the table outside of law school when in reality we're looking at 35k jobs as insurance adjusters? Yes, the debt is scary, and yes, a good bit of self-reflection is necessary before entering into law school, but this "HYS with full aid or go become a used car salesman" shit is getting absurd. If you wanna get ahead in life, you're gonna have to take some risks.


the doctor fixed you :lol:

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Re: Thinking about not going - TCR?

Postby rad lulz » Sat Mar 09, 2013 5:44 pm

Ludovico Technique wrote:
WhatOurBodiesAreFor wrote:TCR? No. Not paying T14 at sticker is not TCR, I don't care what that one radlulz guy says.

Personally, I'd go. But that's because I'm psyched for it and it just feels right.

My only point in posting this was just to add the positive side to this debate, which basically is: "You're turning down Duke!?"


Dead

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Dr. Dre
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Re: Thinking about not going - TCR?

Postby Dr. Dre » Sat Mar 09, 2013 5:56 pm

ChampagnePapi wrote:Problem is the school in my case would be TTTT UCI and Dr. Dre says don't go there :(


DON'T

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somewhatwayward
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Re: Thinking about not going - TCR?

Postby somewhatwayward » Sat Mar 09, 2013 8:40 pm

romothesavior wrote:
WhatOurBodiesAreFor wrote:TCR? No. Not paying T14 at sticker is not TCR, I don't care what that one radlulz guy says.

Personally, I'd go. But that's because I'm psyched for it and it just feels right.

180, would lol again


This guy has been all over the website talking about how he (she?) just "feels" like Michigan at sticker is the right decision and if s/he ties really really hard, there's an extremely small shot that s/he won't get a job....see here:

WhatOurBodiesAreFor wrote:I'm going to take the gamble. If I put everything I have into it I figure there is only a very, very small chance I don't land a good job right out of graduation. Even if I do have trouble finding a job, it's not like the world will end; there will always be a way forward.


right...if way forward means debt peonage, you're right

Okay, now that the troll-, er, willfully ignorant 0L slaying is done, on to OP's question...I think you are right to be hesitant in this situation. Sticker at T14 is dicey, especially if you are uncertain about big law (not to mention your not insignificant chance of not getting it). WUSTL with a 90K discount is all right but still puts you at over 100K in debt (not counting interest) if you are borrowing for COL. With less than 20% in big law and less than 60% employed in legal jobs, it doesn't seem worth over 100K. Vandy's employment numbers are noticeably better than WUSTL's, but I don't know that I would find them worth paying over 100K for either. If it is looking like WUSTL and Vandy are going to cost about the same, I think Vandy should win out, but first investigate how and where Vandy places for people not from the South. I know nothing about Vandy's placement in STL. If STL is your goal, I would not go to Vandy, though. How come Mizzou isn't free?

You may be able to squeeze more $$$ out of some of these schools as time goes on and schools become more desperate to fill their seats with students who maintain their medians. Start by playing the offers off one another but if you still aren't satisfied with the results, use the ultimatum approach of writing a very nice email thanking them for their generous offer but you came to the conclusion that X law school is still not financially feasible for you. I am betting that if you took this approach during this cycle, some of the schools would come back to you with increased offers because they want your LSAT. Of course you risk having them all not do that. But in your case I don't think that would be so terrible because you don't seem sold on law school.

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fruitoftheloom
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Re: Thinking about not going - TCR?

Postby fruitoftheloom » Sat Mar 09, 2013 8:47 pm

Crowing -

If you got accepted to WUSTL, especially with the drop in applicants, I think it would be okay to call them and basically say - hey, I've thought a lot about debt, I think I withdrew my application too hastily. I wouldn't be surprised if they would allow that and still make you an offer. My only thought is that based on the WUSTL thread, it does look like they're not being super generous with scholarships this year. It definitely seems like they EXPECT negotiations, so they are not making their best offer first.

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Rahviveh
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Re: Thinking about not going - TCR?

Postby Rahviveh » Sun Mar 10, 2013 12:46 am

dr123 wrote:
Real Madrid wrote:Some of you people are so damn depressing. Yeah, the legal market sucks. We all know that. But some people on this board act as if we all have six-figure jobs on the table outside of law school when in reality we're looking at 35k jobs as insurance adjusters? Yes, the debt is scary, and yes, a good bit of self-reflection is necessary before entering into law school, but this "HYS with full aid or go become a used car salesman" shit is getting absurd. If you wanna get ahead in life, you're gonna have to take some risks.


As someone who decided against LS, I can tell you there are other ways to get into desirable careers bro

Can you share what you're doing now?

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Re: Thinking about not going - TCR?

Postby rad lulz » Sun Mar 10, 2013 1:55 am

ChampagnePapi wrote:
dr123 wrote:
Real Madrid wrote:Some of you people are so damn depressing. Yeah, the legal market sucks. We all know that. But some people on this board act as if we all have six-figure jobs on the table outside of law school when in reality we're looking at 35k jobs as insurance adjusters? Yes, the debt is scary, and yes, a good bit of self-reflection is necessary before entering into law school, but this "HYS with full aid or go become a used car salesman" shit is getting absurd. If you wanna get ahead in life, you're gonna have to take some risks.


As someone who decided against LS, I can tell you there are other ways to get into desirable careers bro

Can you share what you're doing now?

http://top-law-schools.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=192078

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Re: Thinking about not going - TCR?

Postby WhatOurBodiesAreFor » Sun Mar 10, 2013 8:15 am

somewhatwayward wrote:This guy has been all over the website


Thanks for the shout out, man!

Way to boil down my pages and pages of reasoning to "s/he thinks it just 'feels' right" and way to select my less cogent posts to show me in a bad light. But yeah I guess you're right. Paying for the best school I get into does indeed feel right. I'm OK with the risk. I'm OK with the massive debt load. Given where I'm from and what I've been doing, it does feel right.

My whole issue with this thread is that OP is going through a similar dilemma. I'm not sure what his/her next best alternative is, but mine isn't that good. Assuming you're not turning down a lucrative career or an easy path to one, turning down T14 at sticker is NOT TCR. It's not. There is debate. You guys drown out people like me who are OK with the risk and write them as idiots. It's not the most prudent decision, nor is it one to make for the debt and risk adverse. But some of us are OK with it and that's basically what I mean by it "feeling" right.

BTW: as I've said six other times but you've failed to acknowledge it, I realize my extra "very" in the quote above was a little excessive.

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romothesavior
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Re: Thinking about not going - TCR?

Postby romothesavior » Sun Mar 10, 2013 8:58 am

WhatOurBodiesAreFor wrote:Way to boil down my pages and pages of reasoning to "s/he thinks it just 'feels' right" and way to select my less cogent posts to show me in a bad light. But yeah I guess you're right. Paying for the best school I get into does indeed feel right. I'm OK with the risk. I'm OK with the massive debt load. Given where I'm from and what I've been doing, it does feel right.

Its not even so much a question of risk anymore. Even at a school like CCN where mostly people land big law or a clerkship, the cost is just so high (particularly with the interest rates now) that it makes sticker questionable. If you land biglaw, odds are decent you'll be out in 2-4 years, which means you'll have made a dent in your quarter million dollars of non-dischargeable debt, with a long way to go. The idea that sticker is worth it for a T14 even before the risk calculation. Let's imagine the degree is 300k, or 400k, and you are guaranteed big law. Worth it? Probably not. Where is that line? No idea, but I think its getting close to the point where no law school is worth sticker. I just struggle to see how $250-300k in debt is worth it, even if you land a good outcome. And then enter risk into the equation (little better than a 50/50 shot at some T14s) and sticker looks like a terrible investment.

There is a small handful of schools arguably still worth sticker, but if you can get into them, you can probably get into a slightly lower ranked school with a big scholly. A good friend of mine from undergrad is in at Chicago but has a full ride to UVA. I think he'd be crazy to turn down the full ride.

IMO, the "go to the best school you get into" mantra is on its way out if it isn't out already. Rarely is that TCR.

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romothesavior
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Re: Thinking about not going - TCR?

Postby romothesavior » Sun Mar 10, 2013 9:01 am

And I'm sorry but making $250,000 investment decisions with 8% interest non-dischargeable loans based on "feel" is pretty idiotic, so maybe that's why people write it off as such.

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Re: Thinking about not going - TCR?

Postby hume85 » Sun Mar 10, 2013 9:09 am

Also, you shouldn't dismiss radlulz's perspective; he's a 3L and knows how bad the market is.

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somewhatwayward
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Re: Thinking about not going - TCR?

Postby somewhatwayward » Sun Mar 10, 2013 9:46 am

WhatOurBodiesAreFor wrote:
somewhatwayward wrote:This guy has been all over the website


Thanks for the shout out, man!

Way to boil down my pages and pages of reasoning to "s/he thinks it just 'feels' right" and way to select my less cogent posts to show me in a bad light. But yeah I guess you're right. Paying for the best school I get into does indeed feel right. I'm OK with the risk. I'm OK with the massive debt load. Given where I'm from and what I've been doing, it does feel right.

My whole issue with this thread is that OP is going through a similar dilemma. I'm not sure what his/her next best alternative is, but mine isn't that good. Assuming you're not turning down a lucrative career or an easy path to one, turning down T14 at sticker is NOT TCR. It's not. There is debate. You guys drown out people like me who are OK with the risk and write them as idiots. It's not the most prudent decision, nor is it one to make for the debt and risk adverse. But some of us are OK with it and that's basically what I mean by it "feeling" right.

BTW: as I've said six other times but you've failed to acknowledge it, I realize my extra "very" in the quote above was a little excessive.


I think a somewhat tenuous argument can be made for T14 at sticker, but I don't think you are making it if you think that your chances of not having a good outcome are "very small" (so I get that you don't think they're "very, very small" :wink: ). But unless you think 25-50% = "very small", then you are not acknowledging the risk you are taking, so you are not making a rational argument. Also, you must acknowledge that even if you land in the 50-75% by getting big law (which comprise a lot more than half of the good outcomes) you still may not be able to pay back 200K+ bc of turnover in big law. I mean, you don't have to justify your choices to me, but spouting off this stuff about how taking this huge debt "feels" right and your chance of a bad outcome is "very small" in other people's threads is encouraging other people to ignore these risks, and we are going to challenge you on that.

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Dr. Dre
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Re: Thinking about not going - TCR?

Postby Dr. Dre » Sun Mar 10, 2013 9:47 am

hume85 wrote:Also, you shouldn't dismiss radlulz's perspective; he's a 3L and knows how bad the market is.


which law school?
Last edited by Dr. Dre on Sun Mar 10, 2013 10:15 am, edited 1 time in total.

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romothesavior
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Re: Thinking about not going - TCR?

Postby romothesavior » Sun Mar 10, 2013 9:48 am

hume85 wrote:Also, you shouldn't dismiss radlulz's perspective; he's a 3L and kws how bad the market is.

We ain't listenin to that rad lulz guy, not no way not no how.

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Dr. Dre
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Re: Thinking about not going - TCR?

Postby Dr. Dre » Sun Mar 10, 2013 9:49 am

romothesavior wrote:We ain't listenin to that rad lulz guy, not no way not no how.


i am...

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guano
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Re: Thinking about not going - TCR?

Postby guano » Sun Mar 10, 2013 10:56 am

Before going to law school, read this (LinkRemoved), piece written by the Alabama Bar Association discouraging people from entering the legal profession

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Re: Thinking about not going - TCR?

Postby WhatOurBodiesAreFor » Sun Mar 10, 2013 11:51 am

somewhatwayward wrote:I think a somewhat tenuous argument can be made for T14 at sticker, but I don't think you are making it if you think that your chances of not having a good outcome are "very small" (so I get that you don't think they're "very, very small" :wink: ).


This is not the basis of my reasoning. You guys have called me out on the "feeling" thing enough; you should know this.

somewhatwayward wrote:But unless you think 25-50% = "very small", then you are not acknowledging the risk you are taking, so you are not making a rational argument. Also, you must acknowledge that even if you land in the 50-75% by getting big law (which comprise a lot more than half of the good outcomes) you still may not be able to pay back 200K+ bc of turnover in big law.


How is that reasoning logical? Even 50% biglaw and 1% of another good outcome would force at least the bolded to be 25-49%. I understood what you were saying in that convoluted mess, that it's not rational to take on the risk because you think your chances are small, but - in addition to my comment above - I'll say that it's not like if you strike out you'll be doomed to a life of misery automatically. Pick a T14 that has a good LRAP program? In essence, by the "very small" thing I mean to say that the likelihood of a life of doom and misery solely because I'm paying Michigan sticker is very little (I definitely concede that there's a chance mind you)


somewhatwayward wrote:I mean, you don't have to justify your choices to me, but spouting off this stuff about how taking this huge debt "feels" right and your chance of a bad outcome is "very small" in other people's threads is encouraging other people to ignore these risks, and we are going to challenge you on that.


How can you honestly maintain that my stance on this issue gets the same respect as yours in these threads? I want a debate and I expect (want) you guys to disagree with me because this is an issue that needs to be hammered out, as there is no TCR and the more and more we talk about it the better readers (and me) can evaluate this decision. But you guys do more than disagree. You chastise anyone who shares my view.

For all of our sakes, do more this:
somewhatwayward wrote:I think a somewhat tenuous argument can be made for T14 at sticker but you are not making it


Than this:
Dr. Dre wrote:
Real Madrid wrote:Some of you people are so damn depressing. Yeah, the legal market sucks. We all know that. But some people on this board act as if we all have six-figure jobs on the table outside of law school when in reality we're looking at 35k jobs as insurance adjusters? Yes, the debt is scary, and yes, a good bit of self-reflection is necessary before entering into law school, but this "HYS with full aid or go become a used car salesman" shit is getting absurd. If you wanna get ahead in life, you're gonna have to take some risks.


the doctor fixed you :lol:

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romothesavior
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Re: Thinking about not going - TCR?

Postby romothesavior » Sun Mar 10, 2013 12:06 pm

We chastise you for saying stupid shit and for poor reasoning for your decision, not for thinking a T14 is worth sticker. See:
romothesavior wrote:And I'm sorry but making $250,000 investment decisions with 8% interest non-dischargeable loans based on "feel" is pretty idiotic, so maybe that's why people write it off as such.


Also you completely ignored my above response to you so I'm not sure you're really all that interested in engaging.

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Re: Thinking about not going - TCR?

Postby rad lulz » Sun Mar 10, 2013 12:09 pm

romothesavior wrote:We chastise you for saying stupid shit and for poor reasoning for your decision, not for thinking a T14 is worth sticker. See:
romothesavior wrote:And I'm sorry but making $250,000 investment decisions with 8% interest non-dischargeable loans based on "feel" is pretty idiotic, so maybe that's why people write it off as such.


Also you completely ignored my above response to you so I'm not sure you're really all that interested in engaging.

lol this

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somewhatwayward
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Re: Thinking about not going - TCR?

Postby somewhatwayward » Sun Mar 10, 2013 12:33 pm

WhatOurBodiesAreFor wrote:
somewhatwayward wrote:I think a somewhat tenuous argument can be made for T14 at sticker, but I don't think you are making it if you think that your chances of not having a good outcome are "very small" (so I get that you don't think they're "very, very small" :wink: ).


This is not the basis of my reasoning. You guys have called me out on the "feeling" thing enough; you should know this.


Well it is pretty much impossible for us to make an argument based on your feelings, so there is no way to have a rational debate about it. The tricky thing about feeling that if you just work really hard, you will have a good outcome is that everyone feels that way! Do you really think anyone expects to land in the bottom of the class? I bet 95% of people expect to be above median going into law school.

WhatOurBodiesAreFor wrote:
somewhatwayward wrote:But unless you think 25-50% = "very small", then you are not acknowledging the risk you are taking, so you are not making a rational argument. Also, you must acknowledge that even if you land in the 50-75% by getting big law (which comprise a lot more than half of the good outcomes) you still may not be able to pay back 200K+ bc of turnover in big law.


How is that reasoning logical? Even 50% biglaw and 1% of another good outcome would force at least the bolded to be 25-49%. I understood what you were saying in that convoluted mess, that it's not rational to take on the risk because you think your chances are small, but - in addition to my comment above - I'll say that it's not like if you strike out you'll be doomed to a life of misery automatically. Pick a T14 that has a good LRAP program? In essence, by the "very small" thing I mean to say that the likelihood of a life of doom and misery solely because I'm paying Michigan sticker is very little (I definitely concede that there's a chance mind you)


Well Mich isn't placing 50% of the class into big law and clerkships. It's like 35-38% into firms of 101+ and 10% into clerkships. But I was just estimating a bad outcome because it is hard to know the outcomes of the other ~30% who are employed but not in big law or clerkships. Some are probably happily employed in the PI/small firm jobs they were seeking, and some are probably miserably employed in those jobs, worried about their dependence on LRAP and IBR. I don't think there is data on this, but I would also guess that there is some correlation between the amount of scholarship you received and having a good outcome. Thus, the people on IBR and LRAP also may have the highest debt. But even if the sticker people are evenly spread throughout the people who can afford their debt and the people who can't, there's still a lot of people who are dependent on these programs to service their debt.

Anyway, I know your point is that you won't be miserable if you are depending on IBR and LRAP. There are several reasons that this is a very bad way to think about it unless you are gunning for PI (although PI, bc of PSLF, is super competitive). If you are going into PSLF-eligible PI, your debt will be forgiven with no tax on the forgiveness after ten years in PI (as I said, you still take risks with this program: getting and keeping a PI job, but it is clearly superior to the other possibilities). If you are in a non-PI job, you make IBR payments for 25 years and then your debt is forgiven but as you must know you pay tax on that forgiveness. If your payments have been very low all that time, your debt will have grown a lot; interest accrues but does not capitalize as long as you don't leave the program, so it is not as bad as compounded interest would be but the debt can still be very large. Now there is an insolvency exception that says you can only be taxed on forgiveness of indebtedness to the extent that the fair mkt value of your assets exceeds your liabilities. That may sound good, but think about it for a second. You are now 50 years old, and hopefully you have been saving for retirement, your kids' college, bought a home (but see my next point...). Unfortunately, all those things count as assets, so you won't be able to take as much advantage of the insolvency exception as you would if you had none of those things. Basically the "tax bomb" punishes people for saving for retirement, kids' college, buying a home etc. Sure, you can decide to not do any of those things, but that is a big sacrifice, especially not saving for retirement! For another thing, it is very hard to get loans, for cars, homes, etc, when you have 200K in debt hanging over your head. This is the situation you will be in for 25 years. Lastly, we don't know if it will still be around and what form it will take in two decades.

You should not rely on IBR to make you feel okay about paying way too much for law school. That is why I am so torn about having it. We need it for people who are already hopelessly indebted, but every year law schools unethically advertise it to induce students to feel safe with the risk of taking out six figures of debt. IBR is a safety net, not a plan for paying for law school.

WhatOurBodiesAreFor wrote:
somewhatwayward wrote:I mean, you don't have to justify your choices to me, but spouting off this stuff about how taking this huge debt "feels" right and your chance of a bad outcome is "very small" in other people's threads is encouraging other people to ignore these risks, and we are going to challenge you on that.


How can you honestly maintain that my stance on this issue gets the same respect as yours in these threads? I want a debate and I expect (want) you guys to disagree with me because this is an issue that needs to be hammered out, as there is no TCR and the more and more we talk about it the better readers (and me) can evaluate this decision. But you guys do more than disagree. You chastise anyone who shares my view.


You are right that they don't get the same respect, but the reason is that we are fighting some serious delusion on this board. I don't agree with doing it in a flippant way and I generally try to reason rather than just be dismissive. It is not the fault of the prospective students as I think most of us on the other side have been in that position and understand that perspective. We were raised to believe more education is always better and will lead to an upper-middle class lifestyle and also to pursue prestige and achievement, and it appears that going to a prestigious law school will set us for the stable career and the prestige/achievement. But law schools are taking advantage of that naivete.
Last edited by somewhatwayward on Sun Mar 10, 2013 2:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.

rad lulz
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Re: Thinking about not going - TCR?

Postby rad lulz » Sun Mar 10, 2013 12:59 pm

somewhatwayward wrote:You are right that they don't get the same respect, but the reason is that we are fighting some serious delusion on this board. I don't agree with doing it in a flippant way and I generally try to reason rather than just be dismissive.

You always write these really great long responses. I think I need to write some template ones and just fill them in.

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Re: Thinking about not going - TCR?

Postby Rahviveh » Sun Mar 10, 2013 1:00 pm

romothesavior wrote:There is a small handful of schools arguably still worth sticker, but if you can get into them, you can probably get into a slightly lower ranked school with a big scholly. A good friend of mine from undergrad is in at Chicago but has a full ride to UVA. I think he'd be crazy to turn down the full ride.
.


The bolded is not true, especially for splitters. Financial aid highly unpredictable and doesn't work the way you suggest. And your friend will probably get some aid from Chicago to cut the difference, if he hasn't already.

Very few people get more than half tuition, and with most scholarships you are looking at a debt load that will require big law to service it anyway.

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Re: Thinking about not going - TCR?

Postby rad lulz » Sun Mar 10, 2013 1:02 pm

ChampagnePapi wrote:
romothesavior wrote:There is a small handful of schools arguably still worth sticker, but if you can get into them, you can probably get into a slightly lower ranked school with a big scholly. A good friend of mine from undergrad is in at Chicago but has a full ride to UVA. I think he'd be crazy to turn down the full ride.
.


The bolded is not true, especially for splitters.


Frankly, many splitters ought to seriously consider not going at all




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