Which Law Schools will close down first?

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MikeJD
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Re: Which Law Schools will close down first?

Postby MikeJD » Sun Jul 27, 2014 7:38 pm

Many of those Cali schools have had quite serious declines in matriculates. They are not far from closing but I'm sure they have serious reserves thanks over enrollment in recent years.

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TheSpanishMain
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Re: Which Law Schools will close down first?

Postby TheSpanishMain » Sun Jul 27, 2014 8:04 pm

MikeJD wrote: They are not far from closing but I'm sure they have serious reserves thanks over enrollment in recent years.


How long would they be willing to operate at a loss, though? I mean, if you are having to dip into your reserves, you probably see the writing on the wall, so would you really want to burn through your reserves baling out a sinking ship? It seems like whoever owns the school would want to fold while they still have some money to walk away with.

timbs4339
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Re: Which Law Schools will close down first?

Postby timbs4339 » Sun Jul 27, 2014 9:30 pm

TheSpanishMain wrote:
MikeJD wrote: They are not far from closing but I'm sure they have serious reserves thanks over enrollment in recent years.


How long would they be willing to operate at a loss, though? I mean, if you are having to dip into your reserves, you probably see the writing on the wall, so would you really want to burn through your reserves baling out a sinking ship? It seems like whoever owns the school would want to fold while they still have some money to walk away with.


It's not like they're investors (except at the true for-profits) so the only way to get anything is to raid the endowment to pay salaries and then shut the school down after the well runs dry. But they can't do that because, aside from whatever restrictions are on the endowment, it's one of two major assets securing their debt. I would not be surprised if the endowments were restricted as part of the credit agreements.

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MikeSpivey
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Re: Which Law Schools will close down first?

Postby MikeSpivey » Sun Jul 27, 2014 9:39 pm

timbs4339 wrote:
TheSpanishMain wrote:
MikeJD wrote: They are not far from closing but I'm sure they have serious reserves thanks over enrollment in recent years.


How long would they be willing to operate at a loss, though? I mean, if you are having to dip into your reserves, you probably see the writing on the wall, so would you really want to burn through your reserves baling out a sinking ship? It seems like whoever owns the school would want to fold while they still have some money to walk away with.


It's not like they're investors (except at the true for-profits) so the only way to get anything is to raid the endowment to pay salaries and then shut the school down after the well runs dry. But they can't do that because, aside from whatever restrictions are on the endowment, it's one of two major assets securing their debt. I would not be surprised if the endowments were restricted as part of the credit agreements.


Plus there are about 15 law schools tops with any real endowment.

The question is how long do central universities keep them afloat?

Paul Campos
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Re: Which Law Schools will close down first?

Postby Paul Campos » Mon Jul 28, 2014 7:50 am

MikeSpivey wrote:If anyone can figure out where I can get a spreadsheet (or at least data that I can dump into a spreadsheet) of the application numbers to each individual law schools in, say the 2008/2009 cycle (or 2009/10 if easier) I will compare versus last cycle and show how much each school has dropped. I imagine some of the most likely schools to drop off would be those that have had the greatest decrease in applications, along with the other variables mentioned above (manly free standing, not supported by central university, etc).



The annual ABA Guide to Law Schools is archived online back to the 2003-4 cycle. You can look the application numbers up there as each school's profile includes its 509 disclosures. (Note that the Guide is dated two years ahead of the cycle it reports on, so for example the 2012 Guide reports a school's 2009-10 admission cycle numbers).

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MikeSpivey
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Re: Which Law Schools will close down first?

Postby MikeSpivey » Mon Jul 28, 2014 8:46 am

Thanks, Paul. We've been poking around for a spreadsheet but this will work, since said sheet doesn't seem to exists. Hope all is well!

Mike

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hipcatdaddio
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Re: Which Law Schools will close down first?

Postby hipcatdaddio » Mon Jul 28, 2014 8:54 am

MikeSpivey wrote:
timbs4339 wrote:
TheSpanishMain wrote:
MikeJD wrote: They are not far from closing but I'm sure they have serious reserves thanks over enrollment in recent years.


How long would they be willing to operate at a loss, though? I mean, if you are having to dip into your reserves, you probably see the writing on the wall, so would you really want to burn through your reserves baling out a sinking ship? It seems like whoever owns the school would want to fold while they still have some money to walk away with.


It's not like they're investors (except at the true for-profits) so the only way to get anything is to raid the endowment to pay salaries and then shut the school down after the well runs dry. But they can't do that because, aside from whatever restrictions are on the endowment, it's one of two major assets securing their debt. I would not be surprised if the endowments were restricted as part of the credit agreements.


Plus there are about 15 law schools tops with any real endowment.

The question is how long do central universities keep them afloat?


So do you think the first law school to close down will be one attached to a central university? Kind of like when Georgetown and Emory closed their dental schools? As opposed to a stand-alone law school? Thanks

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MikeSpivey
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Re: Which Law Schools will close down first?

Postby MikeSpivey » Mon Jul 28, 2014 10:28 am

Plus there are about 15 law schools tops with any real endowment.

The question is how long do central universities keep them afloat?

So do you think the first law school to close down will be one attached to a central university? Kind of like when Georgetown and Emory closed their dental schools? As opposed to a stand-alone law school? Thanks


I think it will likely be a stand-alone law school. But, the one thing that people seems to categorically ignore about stand-alones is that precisely because they have not had the backstop of a central university, they have been nimble and fiscally frugal well before most law schools started bending towards that path. So I could see a mismanaged law school with a fed-up central going under if central lost all patience and said "get out of here".

I hear the dental school analogy often but there are a number of differences -- the primary one being the psychological importance boards and presidents put on the prestige (real or not) of having a law school. So an Emory or a GULC wont lose a law school (I realize you weren't implying that).

Mike
Last edited by MikeSpivey on Mon Jul 28, 2014 11:50 am, edited 1 time in total.

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hipcatdaddio
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Re: Which Law Schools will close down first?

Postby hipcatdaddio » Mon Jul 28, 2014 11:20 am

MikeSpivey wrote:
Plus there are about 15 law schools tops with any real endowment.

The question is how long do central universities keep them afloat?

So do you think the first law school to close down will be one attached to a central university? Kind of like when Georgetown and Emory closed their dental schools? As opposed to a stand-alone law school? Thanks


I think it will likely be a stand-alone law school. But, the one thing that people seems to categorically ignore about stand-alones is that precisely because they have not had the backstop of a central university, they have been nimble and fiscally frugal well before most law schools started bending towards that path. So I could see a mismanaged law school with a fed-up central going under if central lost all patience and said "get out of here".

I here the dental school analogy often but there are a number of differences -- the primary one being the psychological importance boards and presidents put on the prestige (real or not) of having a law school. So an Emory or a GULC wont lose a law school (I realize you weren't implying that).

Mike


I agree. I expect a stand-alone to shut down first, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a law school that's attached to a central university that opened up during the boom and has been operating at a loss this entire time shut down. Maybe Elon? Declining class sizes since they opened in 2006 and it's not like their graduates are exactly landing jobs (LST Score of 32). There's just no way the lawyer-flooded state of North Carolina can continue operating with 7 law schools. Someone's gotta go. Charlotte or Elon is my guess. I think although NC Central University is statistically the "worst" law school, it'll stay alive by using adjunct professors and their part-time program.

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jingosaur
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Re: Which Law Schools will close down first?

Postby jingosaur » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:15 pm

I think the first law schools that will shut down will all be attached to a centralized university (maybe the first 3 or 4). I'm sure there are several that have been in the red for a few years and there are a few big universities with law schools that have abysmal credit ratings right now. Maybe they would get rid of the law school to improve their credit rating so they can save millions on interest and funding the law school.

The stand-alones really have no other reason to exist than being a law school so they're going to do literally everything possible to stay afloat because if they go down, there's nothing left. If a law school with a central university attached to it goes REALLLLLY deep in the red (which I don't think has happened yet), they would shut down the law school immediately just to avoid the collapse of the university.

MikeJD
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Re: Which Law Schools will close down first?

Postby MikeJD » Mon Jul 28, 2014 4:36 pm

MikeSpivey wrote:
Plus there are about 15 law schools tops with any real endowment.

The question is how long do central universities keep them afloat?

So do you think the first law school to close down will be one attached to a central university? Kind of like when Georgetown and Emory closed their dental schools? As opposed to a stand-alone law school? Thanks


I think it will likely be a stand-alone law school. But, the one thing that people seems to categorically ignore about stand-alones is that precisely because they have not had the backstop of a central university, they have been nimble and fiscally frugal well before most law schools started bending towards that path. So I could see a mismanaged law school with a fed-up central going under if central lost all patience and said "get out of here".

I hear the dental school analogy often but there are a number of differences -- the primary one being the psychological importance boards and presidents put on the prestige (real or not) of having a law school. So an Emory or a GULC wont lose a law school (I realize you weren't implying that).

Mike


I'm sure UC Hastings is not one of those stand-alones that was "nimble and fiscally frugal". They charge over 50k despite still getting money from the state(10 million?) and have been giving 5% salary raises to profs who make over 200k/300k ++ and I hear they got plenty of them. Hastings will be a school to watch in the next 2-3 years. They had to drop their LSAT median by 3 points to maintain their enrollment numbers, I'm sure they will have to do same this cycle but how long can they keep doing that and have enough applicants/matriculates? You saw what happened University of pacific whose numbers aren't that much worse than Hastings. Pacific went from 158 median and 346 matriculates in for the class of 2013 to 154 median and only 157 matriculates for the class of 2016. Hastings is in the same hood.

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jingosaur
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Re: Which Law Schools will close down first?

Postby jingosaur » Mon Jul 28, 2014 10:34 pm

That's absolutely crazy that Hastings has dropped to McGeorge levels so quickly. I really like how this year's application distribution turned out. Applications at schools that don't place well are still plummeting and applications that the very best schools are leveling off. It kind of shows that all of this transparency/scamblogging stuff is really getting to students.

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MikeSpivey
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Re: Which Law Schools will close down first?

Postby MikeSpivey » Tue Jul 29, 2014 9:02 am

Paul Campos wrote:
MikeSpivey wrote:If anyone can figure out where I can get a spreadsheet (or at least data that I can dump into a spreadsheet) of the application numbers to each individual law schools in, say the 2008/2009 cycle (or 2009/10 if easier) I will compare versus last cycle and show how much each school has dropped. I imagine some of the most likely schools to drop off would be those that have had the greatest decrease in applications, along with the other variables mentioned above (manly free standing, not supported by central university, etc).



The annual ABA Guide to Law Schools is archived online back to the 2003-4 cycle. You can look the application numbers up there as each school's profile includes its 509 disclosures. (Note that the Guide is dated two years ahead of the cycle it reports on, so for example the 2012 Guide reports a school's 2009-10 admission cycle numbers).


We have the data and the results, will throw it up on our blog very shortly. There aren't too many surprises in here, of course that is easy to say once you have the results. There is one school that will likely stand out for everyone.

I know enrollment and application #'s are not the same thing, but I was surprised to see Iowa stay out of the top 20.

Anyway, top 20 schools with most application decrease by % going up soon.

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hipcatdaddio
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Re: Which Law Schools will close down first?

Postby hipcatdaddio » Tue Jul 29, 2014 9:03 am

It's not an entire school, but it looks like Cooley's strategy of "not enrolling a 1L class at the Ann Arbor campus and still keeping the campus afloat" isn't exactly working out.

http://abovethelaw.com/2014/07/cooley-l ... -campuses/

I find it a little ridiculous that there are people who are receiving these emails from their deans about campus consolidation and still handing them tons of money.

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baal hadad
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Re: Which Law Schools will close down first?

Postby baal hadad » Tue Jul 29, 2014 9:05 am

Is Laverne closed yet

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hipcatdaddio
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Re: Which Law Schools will close down first?

Postby hipcatdaddio » Tue Jul 29, 2014 9:19 am

baal hadad wrote:Is Laverne closed yet


Don't think so. They're still bragging about a high bar passage rate.

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hipcatdaddio
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Re: Which Law Schools will close down first?

Postby hipcatdaddio » Tue Jul 29, 2014 11:21 am

MikeSpivey wrote:
Paul Campos wrote:
MikeSpivey wrote:If anyone can figure out where I can get a spreadsheet (or at least data that I can dump into a spreadsheet) of the application numbers to each individual law schools in, say the 2008/2009 cycle (or 2009/10 if easier) I will compare versus last cycle and show how much each school has dropped. I imagine some of the most likely schools to drop off would be those that have had the greatest decrease in applications, along with the other variables mentioned above (manly free standing, not supported by central university, etc).



The annual ABA Guide to Law Schools is archived online back to the 2003-4 cycle. You can look the application numbers up there as each school's profile includes its 509 disclosures. (Note that the Guide is dated two years ahead of the cycle it reports on, so for example the 2012 Guide reports a school's 2009-10 admission cycle numbers).


We have the data and the results, will throw it up on our blog very shortly. There aren't too many surprises in here, of course that is easy to say once you have the results. There is one school that will likely stand out for everyone.

I know enrollment and application #'s are not the same thing, but I was surprised to see Iowa stay out of the top 20.

Anyway, top 20 schools with most application decrease by % going up soon.


Looking forward to seeing the findings. Will the blog post be up today? Thanks.

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Hand
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Re: Which Law Schools will close down first?

Postby Hand » Tue Jul 29, 2014 11:22 am

Last edited by Hand on Tue Dec 16, 2014 5:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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CoffeeIsLife
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Re: Which Law Schools will close down first?

Postby CoffeeIsLife » Tue Jul 29, 2014 11:40 am

hipcatdaddio wrote:
MikeSpivey wrote:
Paul Campos wrote:
MikeSpivey wrote:If anyone can figure out where I can get a spreadsheet (or at least data that I can dump into a spreadsheet) of the application numbers to each individual law schools in, say the 2008/2009 cycle (or 2009/10 if easier) I will compare versus last cycle and show how much each school has dropped. I imagine some of the most likely schools to drop off would be those that have had the greatest decrease in applications, along with the other variables mentioned above (manly free standing, not supported by central university, etc).



The annual ABA Guide to Law Schools is archived online back to the 2003-4 cycle. You can look the application numbers up there as each school's profile includes its 509 disclosures. (Note that the Guide is dated two years ahead of the cycle it reports on, so for example the 2012 Guide reports a school's 2009-10 admission cycle numbers).


We have the data and the results, will throw it up on our blog very shortly. There aren't too many surprises in here, of course that is easy to say once you have the results. There is one school that will likely stand out for everyone.

I know enrollment and application #'s are not the same thing, but I was surprised to see Iowa stay out of the top 20.

Anyway, top 20 schools with most application decrease by % going up soon.


Looking forward to seeing the findings. Will the blog post be up today? Thanks.


He posted the link on his twitter a little bit ago so you should be able to find it on his blog.

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CoffeeIsLife
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Re: Which Law Schools will close down first?

Postby CoffeeIsLife » Tue Jul 29, 2014 11:42 am

MikeSpivey wrote:Here are the 20 law schools that have seen the greatest (pick your word here, greatest sounds odd) drop in applications 2008-2013.

http://spiveyconsulting.com/blog/the-20 ... 2008-2013/

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MikeSpivey
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Re: Which Law Schools will close down first?

Postby MikeSpivey » Tue Jul 29, 2014 11:42 am

I'm actually going to be able to blog the data for all schools today. There are 16 whose applications have gone up since 2008, fyi.

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hipcatdaddio
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Re: Which Law Schools will close down first?

Postby hipcatdaddio » Tue Jul 29, 2014 11:49 am

MikeSpivey wrote:I'm actually going to be able to blog the data for all schools today. There are 16 whose applications have gone up since 2008, fyi.


I appreciate it! I'm assuming that UNC is the school that's the "surprise?" Being from NC and going to UNC for undergrad and now for law, this doesn't surprise me one bit. UNC has always operated on a pitifully small budget which is *part* of the reason that they put such a sad effort into recruiting. UNC is reluctant to give fee waivers and doesn't even do basic things like a general recruiting email or mailer. I think that, combined with lackluster facilities have, in part, led to the drastic drop in applications.

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bugsy33
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Re: Which Law Schools will close down first?

Postby bugsy33 » Tue Jul 29, 2014 11:54 am

hipcatdaddio wrote:
MikeSpivey wrote:I'm actually going to be able to blog the data for all schools today. There are 16 whose applications have gone up since 2008, fyi.


I appreciate it! I'm assuming that UNC is the school that's the "surprise?" Being from NC and going to UNC for undergrad and now for law, this doesn't surprise me one bit. UNC has always operated on a pitifully small budget which is *part* of the reason that they put such a sad effort into recruiting. UNC is reluctant to give fee waivers and doesn't even do basic things like a general recruiting email or mailer. I think that, combined with lackluster facilities have, in part, led to the drastic drop in applications.



They also have an extra essay requirement on their app. The sole reason I didn't apply to UNC and Florida was their ridiculous (imo), extra essay requirements.

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hipcatdaddio
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Re: Which Law Schools will close down first?

Postby hipcatdaddio » Tue Jul 29, 2014 12:07 pm

bugsy33 wrote:
hipcatdaddio wrote:
MikeSpivey wrote:I'm actually going to be able to blog the data for all schools today. There are 16 whose applications have gone up since 2008, fyi.


I appreciate it! I'm assuming that UNC is the school that's the "surprise?" Being from NC and going to UNC for undergrad and now for law, this doesn't surprise me one bit. UNC has always operated on a pitifully small budget which is *part* of the reason that they put such a sad effort into recruiting. UNC is reluctant to give fee waivers and doesn't even do basic things like a general recruiting email or mailer. I think that, combined with lackluster facilities have, in part, led to the drastic drop in applications.



They also have an extra essay requirement on their app. The sole reason I didn't apply to UNC and Florida was their ridiculous (imo), extra essay requirements.


That's a good point. Completely forgot about that.

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MikeSpivey
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Re: Which Law Schools will close down first?

Postby MikeSpivey » Tue Jul 29, 2014 12:27 pm

Data for all schools is now up. Enjoy!




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